Since nobody has been banned for having CR discussion in the Basketball forum, let’s go further off the rails with the Big Ten - Big East rumor.
This is not my rumor, but I like it! A merger of the Big Ten and Big East with the addition of Kansas. The result is a basketball super conference, a stronger footprint in the DC-Philly-NY TV Megamarket for the Big Ten, with football added to New York’s MetLife and Philly’s Linc NFL stadiums.
The combined conferences have non-football members. UConn and Nova become full football members and Kansas is brought in as a full football member.
ND is committed to join the ACC if it joins any conference as a full member, but instead it eventually joins the BIG as an affiliate member and keeps football independent, or partially Indy as it does currently with the ACC.
Basketball
In the basketball pod system, programs schedule twice within each pod every year. On a rotating basis, one annual game is scheduled vs another pod.
A - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, ND
B - Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, DePaul, Butler, Xavier
C - Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Wisconsin, Creighton, Marquette
D - Rutgers, Nova, UConn, Georgetown, St Johns, Providence, Seton Hall
Football
In the football pod system, programs schedule within each pod every year. On a rotating basis, one annual game is scheduled vs another pod.
A - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
B - Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin
C - Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas
D - Maryland, Rutgers, Nova, UConn
The schedules are slightly unbalanced in both basketball and football but that is workable, and preferable to adding other members (like Wichita State in basketball) to bring perfect balance.
A prize in this merger is the basketball tournament in Madison Square Garden. The Big East holds the premier conference championship and the merger would firmly stamp the combined conference in the New York market (beyond what Rutgers and Maryland alone delivers to the current Big Ten). Kansas, UConn, and Nova are higher profile than any Big Ten basketball program, so the improvement is in quality, market footprint, and media exposure, which all equate to higher value.
In addition to the improved footprint in the DC-Philly-NY TV Megamarket, the Big Ten has a huge alumni population on the east coast. The basketball tournament is a prime alumni event, and their alma mater’s football programs visiting NFL stadiums in NY and Philly are a key attendance draw.
Non-rev sports can be regionalized to reduce travel and costs, with championships bringing the entire conference together.
This merger solidifies the Big Ten programs as they compete with the SEC at the top of the market. P5 autonomy may move to P4. The NCAA basketball tournament revenue is likely the next target for shifting revenue control from the NCAA to the power conferences. The merged conference is the top basketball power with the most influence and leverage.
So how does this work financially? With the Big Ten TV contracts through 2023 assume another 6 year term is in planning. Kansas protects its current revenue with a minimum $40M annual distribution over this period. UConn and Nova have junior football status and get a minimum annual distribution of $20M. The non-football schools get a minimum $10M annual distribution, which is up about $4M from the Big East distribution. The Big Ten can afford this based on the increased value of the conference and increased TV contracts in the next round. Kansas, Nova, and UConn accept a very long schedule to get to equitable distributions.
A look at the Big 12 TV deal reconciles the value lost, and the decreased costs from the TV networks:
Big 12 per program distribution is $28M from TV, and $40M total through 24-25.
The value for the next contract is projected at half in the new configuration. That’s $140M per year in decreased TV value.
Kansas remains whole with its TV value in the new merged conference. The 11 Big East schools realize a $4M Increase for basketball, with UConn and Nova each getting $10M incremental for football totaling a $64M increase.
The merged conference TV value increases more than the distribution to the Big East and Kansas members, and the TV network overall value is reconciled considering the new distribution vs. the Big 12 value decline.
More backing info - Here are the numbers from the 2020 fiscal year:
Total Revenue
Big Ten: $768.9 million
SEC: $728.9 million
Pac-12: $533.8 million
ACC: $496.7 million
Big 12: $409.2 million
School Payouts
Big Ten: $54.3 million
SEC: $45.5 million
Big 12: $37 to $40.5 million
Pac-12: $33.6 million
ACC: $30.9 to $37 million
Under a deal signed in 2017, ESPN now pays $190 million per season for some Big Ten games (they also include basketball games). Fox pays more for a better pick of games, about $240 million per season, according to the Washington Post.
AAC has 10 years of TV contract left at ~$5M per program. The 3 top AAC programs are moving to the Big12, diluting from the former UT/OU membership.
Big Ten per program is $38M for TV, and $55M total through 2023.