Andy Katz Final Four Picks | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Andy Katz Final Four Picks

That’s not a given, particularly when it comes to Geno & CD’s ability to mold a very talented group of players into a cohesive unit over the course of a season.
Love Geno & CD more than anyone. Think you are way over reaching here. Sabolly & Hebard have played 76 games together under a pretty good coach themselves. That fact alone makes them twice "as experienced" as Megan and ONO. That is a big advantage IMO.
 
So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?


I think in the complete picture, Hebard as a senior is significantly better overall than sophomore ONO but part of it may be that she has developed a strong 'telepathic' cohesion with Sabrina and she is not on the squad so some of the advantage may be removed.

More to the point, I thought ONO was picked because of her potential in general and her shot blocking (i.e. fill a specific need) and being a true big girl option against teams where that could be a strong advantage.
 
So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?
Definitely not favoritism. ONO was chosen for FIBA Americup because she was a better fit for that team and yes ONO probably outperformed Ruthy at the camp. We are not talking about the camp. We are talking Oregon vs UCONN. Ruthy has been playing excellent basketball alongside Sabrina for 3 full season now and with Sabally for 2. She has a huge advantage vs ONO who has been playing with her UCONN teammates for only 1 season.
 
Not saying Prince is going to start. Sabally is not the "post" presence that Prince can provide. Almost 1/2 of Sabally shots come from behind the arc and she is only the team's 3 leading rebounder. Smith's offensive rebounds were lethal against UCONN so Oregon needs someone to keep Smith off the boards.

Oregon's Achilles heel is the same as their strength, Ionescu, believe it or not. When one player is your leading scorer, leading assist leader and the often the leading rebounder her performance is critical. If she goes down or has a less than stellar performance Oregon risks losing. And in the NCAA's everyone has one bad game (anyone not named Stewart). She will be the major reason if Oregon wins a title and the goat if they lose. Now admittedly she has very few mediocre games and fewer bad games, but when you put your eggs in a small basket that's a risk. Oregon has not done well in games she missed.

My preference of course is for UConn to win the title but if not then I'd like to see Sabrina win one. She's been dominating for her entire career.
 
So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?

Maybe she improved by leaps and bounds in a short time frame, or maybe they needed a stronger shot blocker...I couldn't tell you why. Going by how each player looked playing college basketball last season, there's no comparison though. Hebard was far and away a better player than ONO.
 
Short but sweet. As for me however, Texas A and M has much to prove, returning starters or not.
This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB :)
 
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We will have to see, but there is little doubt in anyone’s mind, including most OR fans, that Geno will outcoach Graves head to head. With that in mind, I can’t wait for the Ducks to visit Gampel on Feb 3.


Yeah there is a lot of doubt. Graves is solidly one of the best coaches in the country and gets his team to play very cohesive basketball. He also develops his players and game plans brilliantly (see Mississippi State games this year). Probably the best new P5 coach in quite some time. Historically Geno is obviously the superior coach, but playing head to head this year I don't see one out coaching to the point of it being a big determining factor. Oregon looks stronger on paper but I imagine this game will be competitive and a very winnable game for UCONN.
 
At this point Hebard is significantly better than ONO, and Sabally is notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here.

Hebard WAS significantly better than ONO last season. But this summer it was ONO playing on the senior select team. Now some might just say Geno put the fix on, but ONO isn't lost playing and practicing with Fowles, Charles et al. Add to that the long history of talented UConn players seemingly regressing in their 1st year only to rise like a phoenix from their freshman ashes to become an AA.
So I would remove "significantly" from your comparison and bold "at this time". :)
 
Definitely not favoritism. ONO was chosen for FIBA Americup because she was a better fit for that team and yes ONO probably outperformed Ruthy at the camp. We are not talking about the camp. We are talking Oregon vs UCONN. Ruthy has been playing excellent basketball alongside Sabrina for 3 full season now and with Sabally for 2. She has a huge advantage vs ONO who has been playing with her UCONN teammates for only 1 season.
I mostly agree. In many ways though most responses here are talking about experience with a system, the players around her, excellent play for a length of time, and her play in and with competition. But the quote was Hebard is "significantly" better than ONO. The things many have mentioned here seem peripheral to the statement. Given that, I don't think Hebard is significantly better than ONO. Not that these peripheral things aren't important, and they may be an important factor when the two teams meet up. But Hebard "significantly" better than ONO? I may be wrong, but uh-uh. Last year was last year. Anyone here think that ONO would have beaten out Hebard for a spot on the team last year? Not a chance. ONO's sophomore leap clearly appears to be the thing that is significant. No, to me the difference in the upcoming game will be the play of Sabrina and not the edge up front.
 
Yeah there is a lot of doubt. Graves is solidly one of the best coaches in the country and gets his team to play very cohesive basketball. He also develops his players and game plans brilliantly (see Mississippi State games this year). Probably the best new P5 coach in quite some time. Historically Geno is obviously the superior coach, but playing head to head this year I don't see one out coaching to the point of it being a big determining factor. Oregon looks stronger on paper but I imagine this game will be competitive and a very winnable game for UCONN.
I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.
 
This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB :)

Looking at the stats, Chennedy Carter shot 38.9% from the floor in conference play, 31.5% from deep, took over 20 shots per game and had a .74 A/TO ratio, averaging nearly 4 turnovers per game. Carter is absolutely talented and has skills no one else does in WCBB, but she has not shown ability to play cohesively with teammates on the court. She takes a LOT of shots and doesn't defer to teammates. Based on players transferring (likely due to her) and her general style of play and demeanor, she's always given off a "me first" attitude rather than a team oriented demeanor. If A&M steps up and becomes a Final Four team, Carter will need to play more selflessly, improve her shot selection and focus on getting teammates involved rather than taking so many shots? Can it happen? We'll see. The potential is there, but getting a player to switch their mindset while playing is a more difficult task than developing a certain skill IMO. We saw players like Meighan Simmons never improve in this area, while Victoria Vivians and Kelsey Plum made much better decisions their senior seasons. I personally will be surprised if Carter does make the transition to being a more selfless player, but she could very well prove me wrong. I'm confident that Texas A&M's success 100% revolves around her though.
 
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This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB :)

What makes you so sure of this??
 
I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.

True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.
 
Hebard WAS significantly better than ONO last season. But this summer it was ONO playing on the senior select team. Now some might just say Geno put the fix on, but ONO isn't lost playing and practicing with Fowles, Charles et al. Add to that the long history of talented UConn players seemingly regressing in their 1st year only to rise like a phoenix from their freshman ashes to become an AA.
So I would remove "significantly" from your comparison and bold "at this time". :)

Fair enough, abut my opinion stays the same. I'd restate it as, "As of April, Hebard was significantly better than ONO, and Sabally was notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here."
 
I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.
Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.
 
Oregon's Achilles heel is the same as their strength, Ionescu, believe it or not. When one player is your leading scorer, leading assist leader and the often the leading rebounder her performance is critical. If she goes down or has a less than stellar performance Oregon risks losing. And in the NCAA's everyone has one bad game (anyone not named Stewart). She will be the major reason if Oregon wins a title and the goat if they lose. Now admittedly she has very few mediocre games and fewer bad games, but when you put your eggs in a small basket that's a risk. Oregon has not done well in games she missed.

My preference of course is for UConn to win the title but if not then I'd like to see Sabrina win one. She's been dominating for her entire career.
Sabrina has been very good in her first three year but I would not call her a "dominating" player. She has 24 loses in her first three years and only 1 FF appearance.
 
True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.
Ionescu was 6-24 for the game, but still, Oregon was tied with Baylor with a minute left primarily because Ionescu was relentless in attacking Baylor’s defense.
 
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Ionescu was 6-24 for the game, but still, Oregon was tied with Baylor with a minute left primarily because Ionescu was relentless in attacking Baylor’s defense.

That's my point though...even with their best player (Plan A) shooting horrible from the floor and taking 24 shots, they still nearly won against the eventual champion. That's a pretty good failure for Plan A. It shows that Oregon can still compete and win big games even if their Plan A isn't working, hence not a need for Plan B.
 
That's my point though...even with their best player (Plan A) shooting horrible from the floor and taking 24 shots, they still nearly won against the eventual champion. That's a pretty good failure for Plan A. It shows that Oregon can still compete and win big games even if their Plan A isn't working, hence not a need for Plan B.
:confused:
 
Sabrina has been very good in her first three year but I would not call her a "dominating" player. She has 24 loses in her first three years and only 1 FF appearance.

But injuries hit them last year and still....
 
Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

Like all coaches who believe take the best on and hope I can make it fit, he nets an Iounescu to make that hummmmm. So, absolutely agree. But watch the Portal and waivers. Who knows, Muffet may pull several rabbits out of the Leprechaun's had. Kelly Graves does not have that kind of drawing power but he's gaining on most in the field. Sabrina made a good choice for her in Oregon because she's slow for a PG/SG at UConn.

And yes, every time I say that about Sabrina some Ducks fan get quite upset and thier Ducks long knives come out!
 
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Maybe she improved by leaps and bounds in a short time frame, or maybe they needed a stronger shot blocker...I couldn't tell you why. Going by how each player looked playing college basketball last season, there's no comparison though. Hebard was far and away a better player than ONO.

It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve. :rolleyes:

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.


I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.
 
Baylor’s traditionally “light” (I prefer the word “embarrassing”) out of conference schedule is why I can’t get behind Baylor. They are a top program. They should act like it and schedule worthy opponents instead of a bunch of teams ranked 300+.

JonathanXIV, I use to have the same exact opinion of Mulkey and her embarrassingly weak schedule year in and year out. That's because I was looking at it from a fan's point of view. I saw Baylor as a top 5 perennial power house "elite" program that is on par with UConn, Notre Dame, etc. Like you , I wondered why Baylor chose not to play an aggressive preconference schedule like UConn does, and derided her for doing so.

Then it dawned on me. I looked at it from Mulkey's perspective. Baylor is in a P5 conference, which has higher quality (major) members than UConn does, thus they don't have to front load their schedule with quality opponents. UConn is in a conference composed of mid-majors, most of whom are seldom ranked.

Mulkey chooses to use the preconference portion of her schedule to her advantage by scheduling 75-90% of these games at home, and only 1-2 ranked teams. She uses these games to allow her team to bond and to integrate the new incoming players to the team and the system. I’d bet the farm she doesn’t care what others think about her scheduling preferences.

Last year, the only game they lost was to Stanford on the road. Like UConn, Baylor seldom loses home games. This year, ALL games are at home except the tournament in the Virgin Islands (Washington St, Indiana & South Carolina) and at UConn in January.

Here's the rub..........regardless/in spite of her weak OOC schedule, she gets away with it. Baylor usually receives a #1 or #2 seed come March. As Mulkey sees it, a "non competitive" schedule checks all of the boxes. They play ALL of their games at home, wins all of them, and gets all of her players (especially the freshmen) playing time to begin the regular season. She's always ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls like she is this year. So, bottom line, until that formula no longer works for her, expect her to continue using it. She won it all last year using that formula.

Baylor WBB Finalizes Non-Conference Dates & Opponents - 2019/2020
 
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True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.

I'd add that an 11th seed starting 3 freshman (one of them Ionescu), a sophomore, and a junior is hardly a good candidate for any sort of Plan B playing UCONN in an Elite 8 game in UCONN's backyard. Prayers, maybe, but surely not an alternative to what (miraculously) had gotten them past Duke and Maryland. And no one--Plan A or B--played Baylor (with Cox) better.

As for the post Sabrina (and Hebard) years, time will tell. But Graves had a very good and very long run at Gonzaga, and I see no reason to assume he won't be able to do the same at Oregon. And the guards coming in this year and next aren't exactly chopped liver imo.
 
As for the post Sabrina (and Hebard) years, time will tell. But Graves had a very good and very long run at Gonzaga, and I see no reason to assume he won't be able to do the same at Oregon.

UConn can lose star players and not skip a beat the next year, but other schools can't...:rolleyes:
 
While Baylor would be one of my FF picks, I don’t view the Lady Bears as a sure thing. The loss of Brown and Jackson means that Baylor will be a much different team this season, even with all the talent they possess.

No more twin towers, and all those wide open short jumpers and easy layups that were the result. Cox moves down to the low post, where she will now be the focus of opposing defenders. Baylor has a great group of athletes, but can they consistently make contested outside shots?

Finally, will Cooper be a net positive or negative to Baylor’s team chemistry?
Their team chemistry is fine! Been at practices and I know some of the girls personally! Only graduated 2 years ago. They are stronger than ever! Also, queen and smith are going to be really good this year! Also, decosta! I’m seriously offended that the defending national champions aren’t picked to make it to the final four when we return pretty much the same team
 
It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve. :rolleyes:

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.

I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.

Geno says this every year. No matter how good they are or what kind of skill set they bring with them, freshmen ARE NOT ready for the rigors and the demands of elite D-1 WCBB coming directly from high school. They find out real quick that while they were the best player on their HS team, they're not the best player on THIS team. They find that the only similarity at UConn with what they left in HS is the court is the same size, and the ball is round.

New teammates, new coaches, new system, a higher level of physical condition is expected, higher expectations, there is so much to learn; in addition to learning time management. Taking college level classes for the first time, putting in your weight training time, plus team practice time, doing homework, getting enough sleep, traveling and learning to study on the road.

It can be a bit over whelming. That's why most of them hit that "freshman wall" sometime in January, when it seems like whole world is caving in on them, and they're asked/expected to do more (plays/defensive assignments, etc) than they can handle.

I remember what Crystal Dangerfield said early in her freshman year about 2 weeks after official practice began. She said that (paraphrasing) nothing she did in high school or AAU prepared her for what she was going through and experiencing in Geno's practices.

I would imagine practice for a freshman at UConn is like a 2 hour fire drill, and everyone knows where they're going and what they're doing except you. :eek: Christyn started out of necessity because Geno didn't have a lot of other "viable" options. She made the obligatory freshman mistakes along the way, but she learned from them, and moved on.

I follow Geno's lead. He says the average freshman takes a year to learn his system.
That's why I don't expect anything from freshmen. If he doesn't, why should I/we? He's not going to put a player on the floor in crunch time until they know what they're doing and he trusts them.

Gabby Williams admitted that she was NOT ready to play in the Stanford game in 2014. Geno agreed and kept her on the bench. At the beginning of her sophomore year, she said that she was ready to play, and that she now knew what she was suppose to do. She went on to have an exceptional career at UConn, became an AA and a 1st round pick in the WNBA. All things in time. :)
 
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When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whomever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.
Juicy landrum hit 2 threes in the title game dude!
 
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