Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[JordyG]

I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.

Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

 

[CocoHusky]

Oregon's Achilles heel is the same as their strength, Ionescu, believe it or not. When one player is your leading scorer, leading assist leader and the often the leading rebounder her performance is critical. If she goes down or has a less than stellar performance Oregon risks losing. And in the NCAA's everyone has one bad game (anyone not named Stewart). She will be the major reason if Oregon wins a title and the goat if they lose. Now admittedly she has very few mediocre games and fewer bad games, but when you put your eggs in a small basket that's a risk. Oregon has not done well in games she missed.

My preference of course is for UConn to win the title but if not then I'd like to see Sabrina win one. She's been dominating for her entire career.

Sabrina has been very good in her first three year but I would not call her a "dominating" player. She has 24 loses in her first three years and only 1 FF appearance.

 

[oldude]

True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.

Ionescu was 6-24 for the game, but still, Oregon was tied with Baylor with a minute left primarily because Ionescu was relentless in attacking Baylor’s defense.

 

[bballnut90]

Ionescu was 6-24 for the game, but still, Oregon was tied with Baylor with a minute left primarily because Ionescu was relentless in attacking Baylor’s defense.

That's my point though...even with their best player (Plan A) shooting horrible from the floor and taking 24 shots, they still nearly won against the eventual champion. That's a pretty good failure for Plan A. It shows that Oregon can still compete and win big games even if their Plan A isn't working, hence not a need for Plan B.

 

[oldude]

That's my point though...even with their best player (Plan A) shooting horrible from the floor and taking 24 shots, they still nearly won against the eventual champion. That's a pretty good failure for Plan A. It shows that Oregon can still compete and win big games even if their Plan A isn't working, hence not a need for Plan B.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Sabrina has been very good in her first three year but I would not call her a "dominating" player. She has 24 loses in her first three years and only 1 FF appearance.

But injuries hit them last year and still....

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

Like all coaches who believe take the best on and hope I can make it fit, he nets an Iounescu to make that hummmmm. So, absolutely agree. But watch the Portal and waivers. Who knows, Muffet may pull several rabbits out of the Leprechaun's had. Kelly Graves does not have that kind of drawing power but he's gaining on most in the field. Sabrina made a good choice for her in Oregon because she's slow for a PG/SG at UConn.

And yes, every time I say that about Sabrina some Ducks fan get quite upset and thier Ducks long knives come out!

 

[Alydar]

Maybe she improved by leaps and bounds in a short time frame, or maybe they needed a stronger shot blocker...I couldn't tell you why. Going by how each player looked playing college basketball last season, there's no comparison though. Hebard was far and away a better player than ONO.

It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve.

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.


I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.

 

[Carnac]

Baylor’s traditionally “light” (I prefer the word “embarrassing”) out of conference schedule is why I can’t get behind Baylor. They are a top program. They should act like it and schedule worthy opponents instead of a bunch of teams ranked 300+.

JonathanXIV, I use to have the same exact opinion of Mulkey and her embarrassingly weak schedule year in and year out. That's because I was looking at it from a fan's point of view. I saw Baylor as a top 5 perennial power house "elite" program that is on par with UConn, Notre Dame, etc. Like you , I wondered why Baylor chose not to play an aggressive preconference schedule like UConn does, and derided her for doing so.

Then it dawned on me. I looked at it from Mulkey's perspective. Baylor is in a P5 conference, which has higher quality (major) members than UConn does, thus they don't have to front load their schedule with quality opponents. UConn is in a conference composed of mid-majors, most of whom are seldom ranked.

Mulkey chooses to use the preconference portion of her schedule to her advantage by scheduling 75-90% of these games at home, and only 1-2 ranked teams. She uses these games to allow her team to bond and to integrate the new incoming players to the team and the system. I’d bet the farm she doesn’t care what others think about her scheduling preferences.

Last year, the only game they lost was to Stanford on the road. Like UConn, Baylor seldom loses home games. This year, ALL games are at home except the tournament in the Virgin Islands (Washington St, Indiana & South Carolina) and at UConn in January.

Here's the rub..........regardless/in spite of her weak OOC schedule, she gets away with it. Baylor usually receives a #1 or #2 seed come March. As Mulkey sees it, a "non competitive" schedule checks all of the boxes. They play ALL of their games at home, wins all of them, and gets all of her players (especially the freshmen) playing time to begin the regular season. She's always ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls like she is this year. So, bottom line, until that formula no longer works for her, expect her to continue using it. She won it all last year using that formula.

Baylor WBB Finalizes Non-Conference Dates & Opponents - 2019/2020

 

[jonson]

True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.

I'd add that an 11th seed starting 3 freshman (one of them Ionescu), a sophomore, and a junior is hardly a good candidate for any sort of Plan B playing UCONN in an Elite 8 game in UCONN's backyard. Prayers, maybe, but surely not an alternative to what (miraculously) had gotten them past Duke and Maryland. And no one--Plan A or B--played Baylor (with Cox) better.

As for the post Sabrina (and Hebard) years, time will tell. But Graves had a very good and very long run at Gonzaga, and I see no reason to assume he won't be able to do the same at Oregon. And the guards coming in this year and next aren't exactly chopped liver imo.

 

[nwhoopfan]

As for the post Sabrina (and Hebard) years, time will tell. But Graves had a very good and very long run at Gonzaga, and I see no reason to assume he won't be able to do the same at Oregon.

UConn can lose star players and not skip a beat the next year, but other schools can't...

 

[Bayloralum]

While Baylor would be one of my FF picks, I don’t view the Lady Bears as a sure thing. The loss of Brown and Jackson means that Baylor will be a much different team this season, even with all the talent they possess.

No more twin towers, and all those wide open short jumpers and easy layups that were the result. Cox moves down to the low post, where she will now be the focus of opposing defenders. Baylor has a great group of athletes, but can they consistently make contested outside shots?

Finally, will Cooper be a net positive or negative to Baylor’s team chemistry?

Their team chemistry is fine! Been at practices and I know some of the girls personally! Only graduated 2 years ago. They are stronger than ever! Also, queen and smith are going to be really good this year! Also, decosta! I’m seriously offended that the defending national champions aren’t picked to make it to the final four when we return pretty much the same team

 

[Carnac]

It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve.

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.

I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.

Geno says this every year. No matter how good they are or what kind of skill set they bring with them, freshmen ARE NOT ready for the rigors and the demands of elite D-1 WCBB coming directly from high school. They find out real quick that while they were the best player on their HS team, they're not the best player on THIS team. They find that the only similarity at UConn with what they left in HS is the court is the same size, and the ball is round.

New teammates, new coaches, new system, a higher level of physical condition is expected, higher expectations, there is so much to learn; in addition to learning time management. Taking college level classes for the first time, putting in your weight training time, plus team practice time, doing homework, getting enough sleep, traveling and learning to study on the road.

It can be a bit over whelming. That's why most of them hit that "freshman wall" sometime in January, when it seems like whole world is caving in on them, and they're asked/expected to do more (plays/defensive assignments, etc) than they can handle.

I remember what Crystal Dangerfield said early in her freshman year about 2 weeks after official practice began. She said that (paraphrasing) nothing she did in high school or AAU prepared her for what she was going through and experiencing in Geno's practices.

I would imagine practice for a freshman at UConn is like a 2 hour fire drill, and everyone knows where they're going and what they're doing except you. Christyn started out of necessity because Geno didn't have a lot of other "viable" options. She made the obligatory freshman mistakes along the way, but she learned from them, and moved on.

I follow Geno's lead. He says the average freshman takes a year to learn his system.
That's why I don't expect anything from freshmen. If he doesn't, why should I/we? He's not going to put a player on the floor in crunch time until they know what they're doing and he trusts them.

Gabby Williams admitted that she was NOT ready to play in the Stanford game in 2014. Geno agreed and kept her on the bench. At the beginning of her sophomore year, she said that she was ready to play, and that she now knew what she was suppose to do. She went on to have an exceptional career at UConn, became an AA and a 1st round pick in the WNBA. All things in time.

 

[Bayloralum]

When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whomever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.

Juicy landrum hit 2 threes in the title game dude!

 

[CocoHusky]

UConn can lose star players and not skip a beat the next year, but other schools can't...

Pretty much.

 

[Alydar]

Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

There's an uncommitted guard from the NW. Scoring pg.

 

[Bayloralum]

Excellent point

Tara is a great coach whose teams usually build momentum through the course of the season. While I agree that Stanford is bringing in some incredibly talented recruits, usually freshmen don’t carry teams to FF’s, with the notable exception of Stewie.

The graduation of Smith is a big loss for the Cardinal. While a number of solid veteran players return, whether or not Tara can get many of her rookies up to speed for the Big Dance will largely determine if Stanford is a FF team this season.

Brittney Griner as a freshman brought Baylor to the final four

 

[JonathanXIV]

JonathanXIV, I use to have the same exact opinion of Mulkey and her embarrassingly weak schedule year in and year out. That's because I was looking at it from a fan's point of view. I saw Baylor as a top 5 perennial power house "elite" program that is on par with UConn, Notre Dame, etc. Like you , I wondered why Baylor chose not to play an aggressive preconference schedule like UConn does, and derided her for doing so.

Then it dawned on me. I looked at it from Mulkey's perspective. Baylor is in a P5 conference, and has better quality members than UConn does, thus they don't have to front load their schedule with quality opponents.
UConn is in a conference composed of mid-majors.

Mulkey chooses to use the preconference portion of her schedule to her advantage by scheduling 75-90% of these games at home, and only 1-2 ranked teams. She uses these games to allow her team to bond and to integrate the new incoming players to team and the system. Last year, the only game they lost was to Stanford on the road. Like UConn, Baylor seldom loses home games.

Here's the rub.....regardless of her weak OOC schedule, she gets away with it. Baylor regularly receives a #1 seed every March. As Mulkey sees it, a weak schedule checks all of the boxes. They play ALL of their games at home, wins all of them, and gets all of her players (especially the freshmen) playing time to begin the regular season. She's always ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls like she is this year. So, bottom line, until that formula no longer works for her, expect her to continue using it.

I understand why Kim schedules like she does; I just don’t respect it. And given the recent state of the Big12, I would take issue with the idea that conference play provides Baylor with lots of “quality” opponents.

 

[oldude]

Juicy landrum hit 2 threes in the title game dude!

My mistake. Baylor had 0x3’s in the semifinals vs Oregon and 2 in the finals.

Thanks for the correction.

 

[Bayloralum]

I noticed last season that on a number of occasions when Cox was in without Brown, her defense was suspect and I don't mean her shot blocking. She had trouble keeping players in front of her and on offense she was not as strong as when Brown was also in. She had her shots blocked inside by shorter players and she was harassed into missing her jumpers. She was still effective but not nearly so without Brown in the game. I believe Smith could be the biggest difference in Baylor's success.

Also, sometimes when Brown was out of the game, Lauren cox would take over and keep the team afloat! She’ll be fine with whoever else takes over the other post position

 

[willtalk]

Also, sometimes when Brown was out of the game, Lauren cox would take over and keep the team afloat! She’ll be fine with whoever else takes over the other post position

I agree. They need to keep Cox at her position. They have to find someone else to play the center position so that Cox can do what she does best. She can step in for short stretches but not for the season. This is why I believe Kim has some roster adjusting to do with Egbo and Smith. Smith was very successful when she came in, but without Brown in the center, she will have to adjust her game on both ends of the floor. She might be successful, but people should not expect the standard of her play last season to be guaranteed this season. Also, Smith and Cox effective spots are the same. One of them will have to change positions if they both start, and I doubt it will be Cox. Most see Smith as the other post starter, but can she play center? That is what I question. She is most effective roaming within ten feet of the basket, but not as a stationary post.

 

[bballnut90]

It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve.

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.


I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.

I agree 100% that we regularly see UCONN players make a huge jump their sophomore season. I've always been in agreement with this and have never stated anything like the example you posted.

That said, I'll be very surprised if ONO develops into a Hebard caliber of player in one off season. Hebard is one of the top frontcourt players in the country. ONO played very limited minutes for a team that was in desperate need of post help. The gap between them was tremendous at the end of the season. I expect ONO will be much improved and the gap will lessen, but to expect her to be on par with Hebard (and to expect Walker to be on par with Sabally) seems quite wishful at this point.

 

[Geew1992]

Isn’t Hebard a senior? Pretty unfair comparison

 

[Reypl21]

Isn’t Hebard a senior? Pretty unfair comparison

They have a game against each other this year. So it's a fair game to compare the two

 

[Alydar]

I agree 100% that we regularly see UCONN players make a huge jump their sophomore season. I've always been in agreement with this and have never stated anything like the example you posted.

That said, I'll be very surprised if ONO develops into a Hebard caliber of player in one off season. Hebard is one of the top frontcourt players in the country. ONO played very limited minutes for a team that was in desperate need of post help. The gap between them was tremendous at the end of the season. I expect ONO will be much improved and the gap will lessen, but to expect her to be on par with Hebard (and to expect Walker to be on par with Sabally) seems quite wishful at this point.

I'm really not concerned with comparing the two. They will be what they will be. You and I disagree only in degree.
And for the record, the main reason ONO didn't play more was that she was constantly fouling. UConn's defense improved a lot with her in the game. That's from Geno.