Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[Alydar]

Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

There's an uncommitted guard from the NW. Scoring pg.

 

[Bayloralum]

Excellent point

Tara is a great coach whose teams usually build momentum through the course of the season. While I agree that Stanford is bringing in some incredibly talented recruits, usually freshmen don’t carry teams to FF’s, with the notable exception of Stewie.

The graduation of Smith is a big loss for the Cardinal. While a number of solid veteran players return, whether or not Tara can get many of her rookies up to speed for the Big Dance will largely determine if Stanford is a FF team this season.

Brittney Griner as a freshman brought Baylor to the final four

 

[JonathanXIV]

JonathanXIV, I use to have the same exact opinion of Mulkey and her embarrassingly weak schedule year in and year out. That's because I was looking at it from a fan's point of view. I saw Baylor as a top 5 perennial power house "elite" program that is on par with UConn, Notre Dame, etc. Like you , I wondered why Baylor chose not to play an aggressive preconference schedule like UConn does, and derided her for doing so.

Then it dawned on me. I looked at it from Mulkey's perspective. Baylor is in a P5 conference, and has better quality members than UConn does, thus they don't have to front load their schedule with quality opponents.
UConn is in a conference composed of mid-majors.

Mulkey chooses to use the preconference portion of her schedule to her advantage by scheduling 75-90% of these games at home, and only 1-2 ranked teams. She uses these games to allow her team to bond and to integrate the new incoming players to team and the system. Last year, the only game they lost was to Stanford on the road. Like UConn, Baylor seldom loses home games.

Here's the rub.....regardless of her weak OOC schedule, she gets away with it. Baylor regularly receives a #1 seed every March. As Mulkey sees it, a weak schedule checks all of the boxes. They play ALL of their games at home, wins all of them, and gets all of her players (especially the freshmen) playing time to begin the regular season. She's always ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls like she is this year. So, bottom line, until that formula no longer works for her, expect her to continue using it.

I understand why Kim schedules like she does; I just don’t respect it. And given the recent state of the Big12, I would take issue with the idea that conference play provides Baylor with lots of “quality” opponents.

 

[oldude]

Juicy landrum hit 2 threes in the title game dude!

My mistake. Baylor had 0x3’s in the semifinals vs Oregon and 2 in the finals.

Thanks for the correction.

 

[Bayloralum]

I noticed last season that on a number of occasions when Cox was in without Brown, her defense was suspect and I don't mean her shot blocking. She had trouble keeping players in front of her and on offense she was not as strong as when Brown was also in. She had her shots blocked inside by shorter players and she was harassed into missing her jumpers. She was still effective but not nearly so without Brown in the game. I believe Smith could be the biggest difference in Baylor's success.

Also, sometimes when Brown was out of the game, Lauren cox would take over and keep the team afloat! She’ll be fine with whoever else takes over the other post position

 

[willtalk]

Also, sometimes when Brown was out of the game, Lauren cox would take over and keep the team afloat! She’ll be fine with whoever else takes over the other post position

I agree. They need to keep Cox at her position. They have to find someone else to play the center position so that Cox can do what she does best. She can step in for short stretches but not for the season. This is why I believe Kim has some roster adjusting to do with Egbo and Smith. Smith was very successful when she came in, but without Brown in the center, she will have to adjust her game on both ends of the floor. She might be successful, but people should not expect the standard of her play last season to be guaranteed this season. Also, Smith and Cox effective spots are the same. One of them will have to change positions if they both start, and I doubt it will be Cox. Most see Smith as the other post starter, but can she play center? That is what I question. She is most effective roaming within ten feet of the basket, but not as a stationary post.

 

[bballnut90]

It seems forever that this type of discussion happens almost every year:
"UConn lost their key player(s); The freshmen were disappointing; looks like a rebuilding year".
Sound familiar?
What you fail to appreciate is that UConn freshmen actually improve.

Very very very few UConn players "get it" in their 1st year. Most, if they get in at all, play a minor role and not in meaningful minutes.


I hope someone else can play the post this year so Hebard can return to the 4 she played as a freshman. I thought she was better there where she could roam the floor. Not having to guard the opposition's center would also free her up to do more shot blocking.

I agree 100% that we regularly see UCONN players make a huge jump their sophomore season. I've always been in agreement with this and have never stated anything like the example you posted.

That said, I'll be very surprised if ONO develops into a Hebard caliber of player in one off season. Hebard is one of the top frontcourt players in the country. ONO played very limited minutes for a team that was in desperate need of post help. The gap between them was tremendous at the end of the season. I expect ONO will be much improved and the gap will lessen, but to expect her to be on par with Hebard (and to expect Walker to be on par with Sabally) seems quite wishful at this point.

 

[Geew1992]

Isn’t Hebard a senior? Pretty unfair comparison

 

[Reypl21]

Isn’t Hebard a senior? Pretty unfair comparison

They have a game against each other this year. So it's a fair game to compare the two

 

[Alydar]

I agree 100% that we regularly see UCONN players make a huge jump their sophomore season. I've always been in agreement with this and have never stated anything like the example you posted.

That said, I'll be very surprised if ONO develops into a Hebard caliber of player in one off season. Hebard is one of the top frontcourt players in the country. ONO played very limited minutes for a team that was in desperate need of post help. The gap between them was tremendous at the end of the season. I expect ONO will be much improved and the gap will lessen, but to expect her to be on par with Hebard (and to expect Walker to be on par with Sabally) seems quite wishful at this point.

I'm really not concerned with comparing the two. They will be what they will be. You and I disagree only in degree.
And for the record, the main reason ONO didn't play more was that she was constantly fouling. UConn's defense improved a lot with her in the game. That's from Geno.

 

[bballnut90]

JonathanXIV, I use to have the same exact opinion of Mulkey and her embarrassingly weak schedule year in and year out. That's because I was looking at it from a fan's point of view. I saw Baylor as a top 5 perennial power house "elite" program that is on par with UConn, Notre Dame, etc. Like you , I wondered why Baylor chose not to play an aggressive preconference schedule like UConn does, and derided her for doing so.

Then it dawned on me. I looked at it from Mulkey's perspective. Baylor is in a P5 conference, and has better quality members than UConn does, thus they don't have to front load their schedule with quality opponents.
UConn is in a conference composed of mid-majors.

Mulkey chooses to use the preconference portion of her schedule to her advantage by scheduling 75-90% of these games at home, and only 1-2 ranked teams. She uses these games to allow her team to bond and to integrate the new incoming players to team and the system. Last year, the only game they lost was to Stanford on the road. Like UConn, Baylor seldom loses home games.

Here's the rub.....regardless of her weak OOC schedule, she gets away with it. Baylor regularly receives a #1 seed every March. As Mulkey sees it, a weak schedule checks all of the boxes. They play ALL of their games at home, wins all of them, and gets all of her players (especially the freshmen) playing time to begin the regular season. She's always ranked in the top 5 in the preseason polls like she is this year. So, bottom line, until that formula no longer works for her, expect her to continue using it.

...except they arent always #1 seed. Kim entered 2018 tournament 31-1 and as a #2 seed since their schedule was quite weak. They also weren't #1 seeds in 2014 and 2015. I think as a direct result of being a one loss 2 seed, this past year they scheduled well in the non-conference, playing at Arizona State, Stanford and South Carolina along with UCONN at home. It earned them the #1 overall seed a favorable path to the Final Four.

 

[Alydar]

UConn can lose star players and not skip a beat the next year, but other schools can't...

LOL Yeah it sounds crazy. But look at the history and you'll see it's true.

 

[nwhoopfan]

LOL Yeah it sounds crazy. But look at the history and you'll see it's true.

I know UConn keeps on rolling, wasn't disputing that. Just sometimes other teams don't fall off as much as expected when a star moves one.

 

[Carnac]

I understand why Kim schedules like she does; I just don’t respect it. And given the recent state of the Big12, I would take issue with the idea that conference play provides Baylor with lots of “quality” opponents.

My reasoning is there are more “major” programs in the Big 12 than there are in the AAC. I amended my comment to read usually receives a 1 seed rather than always.

 

[LoTrader]

Also, what's the plan for next year or the year after? Just keep collecting size? To me good backcourt play is still the key to winning championships. Sabrina, to me, is as close to a transcendent guard I've seen in a long time. Can he win without one? Can he win with one? If he doesn't take the chip this year my opinion of him will be drastically reduced, and the idea of him winning a chip at all even more diminished.

Thumbs up on your "transcendent guard" comment

 

[LoTrader]

This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB

You are correct sir!

 

[LoTrader]

Sabrina has been very good in her first three year but I would not call her a "dominating" player. She has 24 loses in her first three years and only 1 FF appearance.

You must be joking. Who is a more dominating player than Sabrina?

 

[Reypl21]

You must be joking. Who is a more dominating player than Sabrina?

Kyla Irwin and Molly Bent are more dominating obviously. They've lost less games

 

[donalddoowop]

I agree 100% that we regularly see UCONN players make a huge jump their sophomore season. I've always been in agreement with this and have never stated anything like the example you posted.

That said, I'll be very surprised if ONO develops into a Hebard caliber of player in one off season. Hebard is one of the top frontcourt players in the country. ONO played very limited minutes for a team that was in desperate need of post help. The gap between them was tremendous at the end of the season. I expect ONO will be much improved and the gap will lessen, but to expect her to be on par with Hebard (and to expect Walker to be on par with Sabally) seems quite wishful at this point.

I don't think any of us has seen the real Megan Walker yet. I believe her potential will come to fruition this season and if so, she will be on a par with Hebard. I don,t really see how anyone can downplay Sabrina's ability and accomplishments so far. If she was at UConn and played as well as she has, some would say she is one the greatest guards in UConn history, at least good enough to have her name on the wall.

 

[bballnut90]

I don't think any of us has seen the real Megan Walker yet. I believe her potential will come to fruition this season and if so, she will be on a par with Hebard. I don,t really see how anyone can downplay Sabrina's ability and accomplishments so far. If she was at UConn and played as well as she has, some would say she is one the greatest guards in UConn history, at least good enough to have her name on the wall.

I think Walker will be very good this year for you guys. She improved a lot as a soph and will take on much more responsibility as a junior, especially if Westbrook isnt cleared.

Sabally is probably a better comparison for Walker than Hebard since both are more perimeter oriented 4s but Sabally is just better in most areas from what we've seen. No disrespect to Walker, but Sabally is really good and the likely #1 pick in 2021. And agreed regarding Ionescu. For better or worse, everything OU does revolves around her in a way that you dont typically see. I think the UCONN/Oregon game is going to be the best game of the regular season. Oregon appears to have the edge on paper but the Huskies never lose at home (last time was in 2013) and are immensely talented as well.

 

[mbr33ct]

It will be interesting to see how Oregon handles the #1 ranking as the prohibitive odds on favorite to win the NC this season.

 

[meyers7]

Like all coaches who believe take the best on and hope I can make it fit, he nets an Iounescu to make that hummmmm. So, absolutely agree. But watch the Portal and waivers. Who knows, Muffet may pull several rabbits out of the Leprechaun's had. Kelly Graves does not have that kind of drawing power but he's gaining on most in the field. Sabrina made a good choice for her in Oregon because she's slow for a PG/SG at UConn.

And yes, every time I say that about Sabrina some Ducks fan get quite upset and thier Ducks long knives come out!

So were DT and Conlon.

 

[JonathanXIV]

It will be interesting to see how Oregon handles the #1 ranking as the prohibitive odds on favorite to win the NC this season.

Favorite? Yes. Prohibitive favorite? I think that’s a little generous.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

So were DT and Conlon.

"I'm not going to debate you Jerry....let's look at that Burnt Sierra Cutlass." Too busy this AM, but DT and Maria had Geno, and it seemed to work out okay. Geno: ' sure she's short, but she makes up for it by being slow', or vice verse. But maybe that was your point. A wink emoticon would help.

 

[bballnut90]

It will be interesting to see how Oregon handles the #1 ranking as the prohibitive odds on favorite to win the NC this season.

View attachment 46700

Prohibitive might be a stretch but in the past decade, teams not named UCONN have not done well at finishing the job as preseason #1, and UCONN has missed a couple of times too:

2019-Notre Dame, lost in title game after coming off title season
2018-UCONN, lost in Final Four
2017-Notre Dame, lost in Elite 8
2014-2016, UCONN, won it all
2013-Baylor, lost in Sweet 16 after coming off title season
2012-Baylor, won it all
2011-UCONN, lost in Final Four

Oregon on paper looks the strongest and should have the pieces to repeat but it'll be a competitive season.

Looking ahead one more year, and I think UCONN likely returns to the top of the food chain with a lineup of ONO, Walker, Westbrook, Williams and Bueckers. Maryland, Oregon, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Baylor all look quite good on paper too.

 

[DefenseBB]

What makes you so sure of this??

The whole starting 5 is back for A&M and they made it as far as SC in the Tournament. Carter should revert back to or even better than her Freshman year in FG%, 3 Pt Pct, Fat% assists and lower turnovers. She should benefit from the USA team play this past summer. The other teams you are implying are SC and MSU who have new players to mesh in and in the SC case, a stronger team chemistry issue to resolve as dissension became apparent with Cooper leaving and MHH wanting to leave but reconsidering. You also have to integrate a huge freshman class of talent. When large classes of talent arrive, there are almost always issues and transfers from them. See Baylor, Texas, UConn, Louisville, UNCheat all as recent examples of this. Vic has to show he can replace his star player and maintain elite status. I simply have more faith in A&M as they have less questions than both SC and MSU. BTW It’s not like I hate any of these teams.

 

[meyers7]

"I'm not going to debate you Jerry....let's look at that Burnt Sierra Cutlass." Too busy this AM, but DT and Maria had Geno, and it seemed to work out okay. Geno: ' sure she's short, but she makes up for it by being slow', or vice verse. But maybe that was your point. A wink emoticon would help.

So would have Sabrina if she'd have come to UCONN.

You seemed to have been implying Sabrina wouldn't have fit in a UCONN because she was slow. Just sayin' we've had "slow" guards before and Geno has done alright. (no winks needed )

 

[DefenseBB]

Baylor’s traditionally “light” (I prefer the word “embarrassing”) out of conference schedule is why I can’t get behind Baylor. They are a top program. They should act like it and schedule worthy opponents instead of a bunch of teams ranked 300+.

@Carnac addressed some it this but the Baylor OOC is not embarrassing as it has USF, Wash St, Indiana, SC, Georgia and UConn on it. It’s not what MM or Geno would do, but it is better than what Brenda has done. As Carnac noted, her prior schedules didn’t limit her seeding, though they probably hampered her results given some of her earlier than expected exits.

@willtalk mentioned Nylessa Smith as benefiting from Brown’s presence which led to further discussion about her role this year and it has me confused. Smith averaged 8.4 points as a 6’2” reserve and 15 min per game. No way she would play the 5, she’s too small. Does Queen Egbo step up her game to help. This team has talent but how is it to be used will be the issue as roles have to change given the scoring Brown did. Who fills that? Can Cox? It will be easier for teams to guard Cox now with Brown gone and no other apparent big to fill in the scoring. They still lack an outside threat and add in the dysfunctional mess waiting to happen of Tea Cooper and I have doubts. If MM couldn’t repeat with what she had last year, I doubt Kim can repeat this year. Look, I like Baylor, I always have (even when I was highly frustrated with Kim’s poor comments on the sexual assaults in her defense of the school, which were egregious). I just have concerns that I will need to see. Her schedule is not one of those concerns.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

So would have Sabrina if she'd have come to UCONN.

You seemed to have been implying Sabrina wouldn't have fit in a UCONN because she was slow. Just sayin' we've had "slow" guards before and Geno has done alright. (no winks needed )

Well, you know me. Somedays I'm a little slow. One those days @meyer7 a wink helps. Sitting in low light drinking a cuppa trying to catch up before heading out into the storm.

 

[Jmsdawg]

The whole starting 5 is back for A&M and they made it as far as SC in the Tournament. Carter should revert back to or even better than her Freshman year in FG%, 3 Pt Pct, Fat% assists and lower turnovers. She should benefit from the USA team play this past summer. The other teams you are implying are SC and MSU who have new players to mesh in and in the SC case, a stronger team chemistry issue to resolve as dissension became apparent with Cooper leaving and MHH wanting to leave but reconsidering. You also have to integrate a huge freshman class of talent. When large classes of talent arrive, there are almost always issues and transfers from them. See Baylor, Texas, UConn, Louisville, UNCheat all as recent examples of this. Vic has to show he can replace his star player and maintain elite status. I simply have more faith in A&M as they have less questions than both SC and MSU. BTW It’s not like I hate any of these teams.

I agree. Texas A&M should be the favorite because they have players with experience playing together. I suspect both MSST and SC will compete and depending how quickly the team can develop chemistry they have to be consider potential top 10. My heart say MSST but my head says Texas A&M.