Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[Lorcan]

Aren’t Ducks considered Waterfowl?

 

[oldude]

Aren’t Ducks considered Waterfowl?

In the words of Homer Simpson, “Doh!”

 

[CocoHusky]

You must be joking. Who is a more dominating player than Sabrina?

Sabrina is not a dominating player. WCBB has not had a "dominating" player since Stewie graduated.

Thumbs up on your "transcendent guard" comment

Sabrina is not a "transcendent" guard.

Stewart. Griner. Moore. All players within the last decade who were more dominant (albeit in different ways) than Sabrina. She's a special talent but a big piece of her college basketball legacy is going to be determined by how she performs at the Final Four in April, assuming Oregon is still competing. Last year she really struggled against Baylor, this year she has a shot at redemption.

Comparable players to Sabrina with some noteworthy NCAA accomplishments within the last decade at the "Guard" position:
Angel McCoughtry-3X AA, 20 PPG, 9.1 RPG (Both higher than Sabrina' career averages)
Kristi Tolliver-NCAA Champion & 2X AA.
Courtney Vandersloot
Skylar Diggins 2X AA
Odyssey Sims-Wade Trophy Winner
Kayla McBride-2X AA
Jewell Loyd-2X AA in 3 years of WCBB despite ALWAYS playing with another AA in the backcourt.
Moriah Jefferson-4 Rings, National DPOY
Kelsey Mitchell-3X AA
Kelsey Plum-Wade Trophy Winner
Asia Durr-2X AA
IMO you can't be "transcendent" if you have this many comparable players many of whom are peers of Sabrina. BTW if you suggest removing Angel and Kayla as more Small forwards than guards I can find suitable replacements starting with Tiffany Mitchell.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Without a settled definition of terms like "transcendent" and "dominant," I'm not even sure what the point to this debate is. Yes, there have been several guards in the past decade to win the Wade Trophy and many more to earn one or more year of AA status. Just like there were Wade Trophy and AA-status forwards besides Stewwie (Griner, for example, matched Stewwie's two-time Wade Trophy awards). What made Stewwie transcendent was that she did things with a basketball that you just didn't expect (especially for her size), like she had a telekinetic power to guide the basketball beyond her fingertips. Griner has size, but Stewwie had wow.

I'll be the first to agree Ionescu is not at the Stewwie level, but she's the closest I've seen since to possess that same "wow" ability since Stewwie graduated in 2016. None of the players in that long list you mentioned are anywhere near as enjoyable for me to watch as Ionescu, because of what she can do from all over the court, often when you simply don't think it's possible.

Also, maybe we've all just subconsciously soaked up sports journalism, but the AP, NCAA, and High Post Hoops have all described Ionescu as "transcendent." For example:

Her play on the court has made Ionescu a transcendent star of college women’s basketball the last few years. Whatever she ends up deciding to do when the Ducks’ season is over will have the blessing of her coach.

It's ok for someone other than UConn to have the star player once in a while, y'all. I expect the words "Bueckers" and "transcendent" will also be used together a lot starting in 2021.

 

[CocoHusky]

Without a settled definition of terms like "transcendent" and "dominant," I'm not even sure what the point to this debate is. Yes, there have been several guards in the past decade to win the Wade Trophy and many more to earn one or more year of AA status. Just like there were Wade Trophy and AA-status forwards besides Stewwie (Griner, for example, matched Stewwie's two-time Wade Trophy awards). What made Stewwie transcendent was that she did things with a basketball that you just didn't expect (especially for her size), like she had a telekinetic power to guide the basketball beyond her fingertips. Griner has size, but Stewwie had wow.
I'll be the first to agree Ionescu is not at the Stewwie level, but she's the closest I've seen since to possess that same "wow" ability since Stewwie graduated in 2016. None of the players in that long list you mentioned are anywhere near as enjoyable for me to watch as Ionescu, because of what she can do from all over the court, often when you simply don't think it's possible.

Fair points A Wade trophy is handed out every year as is AA status.
Definitions and examples.
Transcendent- Revolutionizes the game or the way a position is played. Magic Johnson a 6'9" player revolutionized the PG position. Scottie Pippen revolutionized basketball with the invention of the point forward position where the bulls offense was ran thought the forward position vs that other HoF playing in the Bulls back court. DT, originally a shooting guard, revolutionized the PG position as a scoring PG because you had to play equally as a scorer or as a assist person for her less talented teammates.

Dominant- A player who is the singular difference (separation) that propels a team to a champion(s) level and must be account for every single time. A dominant player doesn't beat themselves and they win championships. Here comes the controversial parts: 1) Britney Griner IMO would not have been considered a "dominant" player without that singular championship. 2) Stewie was dominant but not transcendent because we had seen something similar at that position in Candace Parker-as much as people on this board are going to hate that comparison. 3) Both transcendent and dominant are easier to acknowledge if the end result is championships.

If you go look at a basketball record book you might conclude that Wilt was the most dominant BB player who ever lived. If you look at Bill Russell fingers you will know better.

 

[oldude]

Fair points A Wade trophy is handed out every year as is AA status.
Definitions and examples.
Transcendent- Revolutionizes the game or the way a position is played. Magic Johnson a 6'9" player revolutionized the PG position. Scottie Pippen revolutionized basketball with the invention of the point forward position where the bulls offense was ran thought the forward position vs that other HoF playing in the Bulls back court. DT, originally a shooting guard, revolutionized the PG position as a scoring PG because you had to play equally as a scorer or as a assist person for her less talented teammates.

Dominant- A player who is the singular difference (separation) that propels a team to a champion(s) level and must be account for every single time. A dominant player doesn't beat themselves and they win championships. Here comes the controversial parts: 1) Britney Griner IMO would not have been considered a "dominant" player without that singular championship. 2) Stewie was dominant but not transcendent because we had seen something similar at that position in Candace Parker-as much as people on this board are going to hate that comparison. 3) Both transcendent and dominant are easier to acknowledge if the end result is championships.

If you go look at a basketball record book you might conclude that Wilt was the most dominant BB player who ever lived. If you look at Bill Russell fingers you will know better.

Respectfully, I would suggest the point forward position was effectively introduced by Larry Bird with Pippen coming along a few years later.

 

[UConnCat]

2) Stewie was dominant but not transcendent because we had seen something similar at that position in Candace Parker-as much as people on this board are going to hate that comparison.

I disagree. Stewart was not similar to Parker in college in one important respect: three-point shooting. Parker made 17 three-pointers in 3 years at Tennessee. Stewart made 152 three-pointers in 4 years at UConn. The ability of Stewart to shoot the 3 at 6'4" made her transcendent in a way Parker never was.

 

[bballnut90]

Sabrina is not a dominating player. WCBB has not had a "dominating" player since Stewie graduated.


Sabrina is not a "transcendent" guard.


Comparable players to Sabrina with some noteworthy NCAA accomplishments within the last decade at the "Guard" position:
Angel McCoughtry-3X AA, 20 PPG, 9.1 RPG (Both higher than Sabrina' career averages)
Kristi Tolliver-NCAA Champion & 2X AA.
Courtney Vandersloot
Skylar Diggins 2X AA
Odyssey Sims-Wade Trophy Winner
Kayla McBride-2X AA
Jewell Loyd-2X AA in 3 years of WCBB despite ALWAYS playing with another AA in the backcourt.
Moriah Jefferson-4 Rings, National DPOY
Kelsey Mitchell-3X AA
Kelsey Plum-Wade Trophy Winner
Asia Durr-2X AA
IMO you can't be "transcendent" if you have this many comparable players many of whom are peers of Sabrina. BTW if you suggest removing Angel and Kayla as more Small forwards than guards I can find suitable replacements starting with Tiffany Mitchell.

Sabrina is far better than almost everyone listed here.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Respectfully, I would suggest the point forward position was effectively introduced by Larry Bird with Pippen coming along a few years later.

And some would argue that Larry Bird was simply a better version of Rick Barry.

 

[oldude]

And some would argue that Larry Bird was simply a better version of Rick Barry.

Or Barry’s contemporary, Bill Bradley.

 

[Carnac]

Their team chemistry is fine! Been at practices and I know some of the girls personally! Only graduated 2 years ago. They are stronger than ever! Also, queen and smith are going to be really good this year! Also, decosta! I’m seriously offended that the defending national champions aren’t picked to make it to the final four when we return pretty much the same team

This is not the place to be offended because your team was not picked to finish as high as you think they should. Several years ago, I suggested that UConn should be ranked number 1 in the preseason polls because they were the reigning national champions. They had just lost Brianna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson and Morgan Tuck.

That post was met with an avalanche of scorn, disagreement and cynicism. Their take was that this year’s team is not last year’s team. The fact that they lost 3/5 of their starters was significant. Don’t take it personal. The critics here look forward not backward. If your team is worthy of that type of recognition and praise, they’ll have to earn it between the lines against “quality “ competitors, not the cupcakes she schedules in the preseason.

 

[meyers7]

Sabrina is not a dominating player. WCBB has not had a "dominating" player since Stewie graduated.


Sabrina is not a "transcendent" guard.


Comparable players to Sabrina with some noteworthy NCAA accomplishments within the last decade at the "Guard" position:
Angel McCoughtry-3X AA, 20 PPG, 9.1 RPG (Both higher than Sabrina' career averages)
Kristi Tolliver-NCAA Champion & 2X AA.
Courtney Vandersloot
Skylar Diggins 2X AA
Odyssey Sims-Wade Trophy Winner
Kayla McBride-2X AA
Jewell Loyd-2X AA in 3 years of WCBB despite ALWAYS playing with another AA in the backcourt.
Moriah Jefferson-4 Rings, National DPOY
Kelsey Mitchell-3X AA
Kelsey Plum-Wade Trophy Winner
Asia Durr-2X AA
IMO you can't be "transcendent" if you have this many comparable players many of whom are peers of Sabrina. BTW if you suggest removing Angel and Kayla as more Small forwards than guards I can find suitable replacements starting with Tiffany Mitchell.

You're selling Jefferson a little short there. She was also a 2 time AA and 2 time NLC PG award winner.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Or Barry’s contemporary, Bill Bradley.

Fair point. But Bradley didn't rebound like Barry and Bird. Bradley averaged 3.2 rebounds/game for his career, while Barry was at 6.5 and Bird was 10.0.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Their team chemistry is fine! Been at practices and I know some of the girls personally! Only graduated 2 years ago. They are stronger than ever! Also, queen and smith are going to be really good this year! Also, decosta! I’m seriously offended that the defending national champions aren’t picked to make it to the final four when we return pretty much the same team

That's a lot of exclamation points.

 

[JordyG]

Fair points A Wade trophy is handed out every year as is AA status.
Definitions and examples.
Transcendent- Revolutionizes the game or the way a position is played. Magic Johnson a 6'9" player revolutionized the PG position. Scottie Pippen revolutionized basketball with the invention of the point forward position where the bulls offense was ran thought the forward position vs that other HoF playing in the Bulls back court. DT, originally a shooting guard, revolutionized the PG position as a scoring PG because you had to play equally as a scorer or as a assist person for her less talented teammates.

Dominant- A player who is the singular difference (separation) that propels a team to a champion(s) level and must be account for every single time. A dominant player doesn't beat themselves and they win championships. Here comes the controversial parts: 1) Britney Griner IMO would not have been considered a "dominant" player without that singular championship. 2) Stewie was dominant but not transcendent because we had seen something similar at that position in Candace Parker-as much as people on this board are going to hate that comparison. 3) Both transcendent and dominant are easier to acknowledge if the end result is championships.

If you go look at a basketball record book you might conclude that Wilt was the most dominant BB player who ever lived. If you look at Bill Russell fingers you will know better.

You had me at transcendent and lost me at rings. By that definition Robert Horry is the most dominant and possibly greatest forward that ever played.

 

[Alydar]

Cats don't have the discipline to play team sports. They tend towards gold and tennis.

 

[Alydar]

Their team chemistry is fine! Been at practices and I know some of the girls personally! Only graduated 2 years ago. They are stronger than ever! Also, queen and smith are going to be really good this year! Also, decosta! I’m seriously offended that the defending national champions aren’t picked to make it to the final four when we return pretty much the same team

Baylor lost their pg and their center off that team. 40% of the starters. How is that "pretty much the same"? Cox was great but those 2 were the keys to the team.
And how has Baylor done in similar situations? Griner's team went undefeated and returned "pretty much the same team". They got taken down in the S16.
Winning a title requires more than just talent. Winning 2 in a row is something only 2 programs have acheived in the modern era.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Baylor lost their pg and their center off that team. 40% of the starters. How is that "pretty much the same"? Cox was great but those 2 were the keys to the team.
And how has Baylor done in similar situations? Griner's team went undefeated and returned "pretty much the same team". They got taken down in the S16.
Winning a title requires more than just talent. Winning 2 in a row is something only 2 programs have acheived in the modern era.

There you go, "seriously offending" again.

 

[eebmg]

Belebi is far more transcendent than sabrina.

 

[Alydar]

Without a settled definition of terms like "transcendent" and "dominant," I'm not even sure what the point to this debate is. Yes, there have been several guards in the past decade to win the Wade Trophy and many more to earn one or more year of AA status. Just like there were Wade Trophy and AA-status forwards besides Stewwie (Griner, for example, matched Stewwie's two-time Wade Trophy awards). What made Stewwie transcendent was that she did things with a basketball that you just didn't expect (especially for her size), like she had a telekinetic power to guide the basketball beyond her fingertips. Griner has size, but Stewwie had wow.

I'll be the first to agree Ionescu is not at the Stewwie level, but she's the closest I've seen since to possess that same "wow" ability since Stewwie graduated in 2016. None of the players in that long list you mentioned are anywhere near as enjoyable for me to watch as Ionescu, because of what she can do from all over the court, often when you simply don't think it's possible.

Also, maybe we've all just subconsciously soaked up sports journalism, but the AP, NCAA, and High Post Hoops have all described Ionescu as "transcendent." For example:



It's ok for someone other than UConn to have the star player once in a while, y'all. I expect the words "Bueckers" and "transcendent" will also be used together a lot starting in 2021.

Star player? Of course. But no matter what the media says, a transcendent player is dominant in big games against the best competition. They elevate in big games. Stewart was the MVP in all 4 final fours she played in. She played her best basketball in the biggest games. Parker is another who "transcended" in college. Transcendent players have an answer for anything an opponent tries. To be figuratively head and shoulders above everyone else it is useful to be literally head and shoulders taller.

Ask a bowler who has just had a perfect game which of his fingers was most valuable and they will look at you like you are crazy. But when instead of fingers it's players, we suddenly have to rank them. As much as this type of discussion fills time until November it's the team I pay attention to once the season starts. UConn players never dominate national statistics like scoring. Very few UConn players historically have had triple doubles. I'm fine with that. Sure I applauded when Gabby had hers but it's a side show to the game. Stats and individual awards are a consolation prize to fans of also-ran teams.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

No fowl either?

Note that the Stanford “Cardinal” is a color, not a bird. Their mascot is a tree.

That is one ferocious mascot.

 

[LoTrader]

Sabrina is not a dominating player. WCBB has not had a "dominating" player since Stewie graduated.


Sabrina is not a "transcendent" guard.


Comparable players to Sabrina with some noteworthy NCAA accomplishments within the last decade at the "Guard" position:
Angel McCoughtry-3X AA, 20 PPG, 9.1 RPG (Both higher than Sabrina' career averages)
Kristi Tolliver-NCAA Champion & 2X AA.
Courtney Vandersloot
Skylar Diggins 2X AA
Odyssey Sims-Wade Trophy Winner
Kayla McBride-2X AA
Jewell Loyd-2X AA in 3 years of WCBB despite ALWAYS playing with another AA in the backcourt.
Moriah Jefferson-4 Rings, National DPOY
Kelsey Mitchell-3X AA
Kelsey Plum-Wade Trophy Winner
Asia Durr-2X AA
IMO you can't be "transcendent" if you have this many comparable players many of whom are peers of Sabrina. BTW if you suggest removing Angel and Kayla as more Small forwards than guards I can find suitable replacements starting with Tiffany Mitchell.

Incorrect

 

[CocoHusky]

Sabrina is far better than almost everyone listed here.

By what objective measure?

 

[Bayloralum]

Baylor lost their pg and their center off that team. 40% of the starters. How is that "pretty much the same"? Cox was great but those 2 were the keys to the team.
And how has Baylor done in similar situations? Griner's team went undefeated and returned "pretty much the same team". They got taken down in the S16.
Winning a title requires more than just talent. Winning 2 in a row is something only 2 programs have acheived in the modern era.

Lol 2 players out of 12 players are gone. Ten players return from the championship team! 6 of the 10 played significant minutes last year so yeah pretty much the same team! Also, Kalani Brown being gone for Baylor won’t matter much since the offense last year pretty much ran through Lauren cox with all her abilities

 

[Alydar]

Lol 2 players out of 12 players are gone. Ten players return from the championship team! 6 of the 10 played significant minutes last year so yeah pretty much the same team! Also, Kalani Brown being gone for Baylor won’t matter much since the offense last year pretty much ran through Lauren cox with all her abilities

You can juggle the facts all you want but they lost their AA center and their pg (70 mins/game), without whom Baylor is a different offense and not anywhere near as big. Now they may go undefeated because there is talent but you don't appreciate the pressure of defending a title.
UConn "only" lost 2 players too. They will be an entirely new team this year, despite all the familiar faces.

 

[bballnut90]

By what objective measure?

1. Transforming a program from not making the NCAA tournament to steadily improved results each year. Has culminated in:
3 Elite 8s
1 Final Four
2 Pac 12 Regular season titles
1 Pac 12 Tournament Championship
Steadily improved results each year.

Of the players above, only Angel and Diggins can claim to have elevated their programs in a similar manner, but Oregon has been more of a powerhouse than Louisville was with Angel, and Notre Dame was a Sweet 16 team before Diggins. Oregon was a WNIT team before Ionescu and has become a Final Four team and preseason #1 squad 4 years later. Sabrina has been the clear centerpiece of all 3 teams she's been on. Not the case for most players listed above.


2. Awards:
She's likely going to be a 2x National Player of the Year, joining the likes of Stewart, Parker, Moore, and Augustus. As it stands right now, she has the following awards with 1 season left to go and she is likely going to add a lot of hardware:
-National Player of the Year
-2x Nancy Lieberman Award Winner
-2x Pac 12 POY
-NCAA Regional MVP
-Pac 12 Tournament MVP
-National FOY

No one you listed is going to have near the accolades Sabrina will when she finishes at Oregon. Even now, I'd say only Sims/Diggins/Angel can really compare when looking at individual awards over a career. And that's with Sabrina not playing a minute of basketball as a senior.


3. Statistics:
Sabrina is likely going to finish her career with over 2500 points, 1000 assists and 1000 rebounds. No one has ever had 2000/1000/1000, and the only person with 2000 points and 1000 assists is Vandersloot. She already owns the NCAA record for triple doubles with 2x as many the 2nd place person. Other players like Plum/Sims/Mitchell have high scoring, Sloot was an assist machine at a good mid major, and Angel had some ridiculous numbers but all pale compared to Ionescu.

4. Consistency:
As noted above, year after year Sabrina has been the centerpiece of her team and performed at a high level. Most other players took more time to become a star player, or have had disappointing seasons along the way, whether it be poor team results or mediocre individual play. No one has brought it their first 3 years like Sabrina has.


4. Eye test:
Watch an average game of hers vs. an average game from anyone you listed...there's no comparison. She impacts the game at such a different level than almost all of the players you listed.

 

[bballnut90]

You can juggle the facts all you want but they lost their AA center and their pg (70 mins/game), without whom Baylor is a different offense and not anywhere near as big. Now they may go undefeated because there is talent but you don't appreciate the pressure of defending a title.
UConn "only" lost 2 players too. They will be an entirely new team this year, despite all the familiar faces.

Just to clarify, Brown/Jackson played a combined 59 minutes per game, not 70. They also have the best defensive big in the nation in Cox so I don't think lack of size is going to be any issue for Baylor

 

[Alydar]

Just to clarify, Brown/Jackson played a combined 59 minutes per game, not 70. They also have the best defensive big in the nation in Cox so I don't think lack of size is going to be any issue for Baylor

You are right. About 1/3 of the minutes in a game. Cox iss already playing about 30/game.
Cox is a great post but can she repeat everything she did AND carry a large part of what Brown did?
Can Cooper duplicate what Jackson did? Can she play long minutes with her fouling history? Or is her third team a sign of a problem? I don't know why she left SC but she had "chemistry" problems with her team mates and got tossed from Tenn.
Can Egbo handle minutes? She committed more fouls than Cox playing only half the minutes.
Why Is a post grad transfer from TT doing on a team if it is returning a roster that won it all?

Next April you may be looking for me but your Bears have a tougher road ahead than you expect.

 

[bballnut90]

You are right. About 1/3 of the minutes in a game. Cox iss already playing about 30/game.
Cox is a great post but can she repeat everything she did AND carry a large part of what Brown did?
Can Cooper duplicate what Jackson did? Can she play long minutes with her fouling history? Or is her third team a sign of a problem? I don't know why she left SC but she had "chemistry" problems with her team mates and got tossed from Tenn.
Can Egbo handle minutes? She committed more fouls than Cox playing only half the minutes.
Why Is a post grad transfer from TT doing on a team if it is returning a roster that won it all?

Next April you may be looking for me but your Bears have a tougher road ahead than you expect.

Lol they are not my Baylor Bears...just pointing out that they shouldn't be underestimated. And where you getting these numbers? Egbo committed 52 fouls a year ago, Cox 61. Degrate is there to provide depth inside, although I don't think anyone expects her to make big contributions. Never hurts to have another big in the lineup and at practice.

Cox also doesn't need to replace what Brown did. Much of that will fall on Smith and Egbo. Smith was absolutely sensational as a freshman in limited minutes and brings a different dimension to the table from Brown. Egbo looked good in relatively limited minutes, although she is rawer than Smith. She's a long and athletic shot blocker who will provide good depth off the bench. There is also Aquira Decosta who was the highest rated recruit of the bunch but never got into her flow last year due to an early injury. She'll likely be a contributor this season too and brings another dynamic with her athleticism. They'll obviously look quite different without Brown inside but they have all of the tools to be a dominant post oriented team again.

Cooper also doesn't have a history of foul trouble....team chemistry I'll give you though. I'm still puzzled why Mulkey wanted to take her instead of pushing hard for a player like Moore. Time will tell but if I'm a Baylor fan, my biggest concern is how Te'a Cooper affects chemistry.

 

[Alydar]

Lol they are not my Baylor Bears...just pointing out that they shouldn't be underestimated. And where you getting these numbers? Egbo committed 52 fouls a year ago, Cox 61. Degrate is there to provide depth inside, although I don't think anyone expects her to make big contributions. Never hurts to have another big in the lineup and at practice.

Cox also doesn't need to replace what Brown did. Much of that will fall on Smith and Egbo. Smith was absolutely sensational as a freshman in limited minutes and brings a different dimension to the table from Brown. Egbo looked good in relatively limited minutes, although she is rawer than Smith. She's a long and athletic shot blocker who will provide good depth off the bench. There is also Aquira Decosta who was the highest rated recruit of the bunch but never got into her flow last year due to an early injury. She'll likely be a contributor this season too and brings another dynamic with her athleticism. They'll obviously look quite different without Brown inside but they have all of the tools to be a dominant post oriented team again.

Cooper also doesn't have a history of foul trouble....team chemistry I'll give you though. I'm still puzzled why Mulkey wanted to take her instead of pushing hard for a player like Moore. Time will tell but if I'm a Baylor fan, my biggest concern is how Te'a Cooper affects chemistry.

The player I meant was Smith, whom I expect to pick up minutes. She had the 68 in half the minutes Cox played. But Egbo is another fouler. Yes, 52 fouls in 10min/game while Cox had 61 in 30min/game. Triple her mins to Cox's gives her 150+. Not necessarily but a potential problem. And Egbo is 6'3", not 6'6", mobile and huge. Neither of those two can replace what Brown gave. I would think that there needs to be some new roles for Cox and the other two. Toss in a new pg and despite many familiar names it will be a much different team.