Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[bballnut90]

By what objective measure?

1. Transforming a program from not making the NCAA tournament to steadily improved results each year. Has culminated in:
3 Elite 8s
1 Final Four
2 Pac 12 Regular season titles
1 Pac 12 Tournament Championship
Steadily improved results each year.

Of the players above, only Angel and Diggins can claim to have elevated their programs in a similar manner, but Oregon has been more of a powerhouse than Louisville was with Angel, and Notre Dame was a Sweet 16 team before Diggins. Oregon was a WNIT team before Ionescu and has become a Final Four team and preseason #1 squad 4 years later. Sabrina has been the clear centerpiece of all 3 teams she's been on. Not the case for most players listed above.


2. Awards:
She's likely going to be a 2x National Player of the Year, joining the likes of Stewart, Parker, Moore, and Augustus. As it stands right now, she has the following awards with 1 season left to go and she is likely going to add a lot of hardware:
-National Player of the Year
-2x Nancy Lieberman Award Winner
-2x Pac 12 POY
-NCAA Regional MVP
-Pac 12 Tournament MVP
-National FOY

No one you listed is going to have near the accolades Sabrina will when she finishes at Oregon. Even now, I'd say only Sims/Diggins/Angel can really compare when looking at individual awards over a career. And that's with Sabrina not playing a minute of basketball as a senior.


3. Statistics:
Sabrina is likely going to finish her career with over 2500 points, 1000 assists and 1000 rebounds. No one has ever had 2000/1000/1000, and the only person with 2000 points and 1000 assists is Vandersloot. She already owns the NCAA record for triple doubles with 2x as many the 2nd place person. Other players like Plum/Sims/Mitchell have high scoring, Sloot was an assist machine at a good mid major, and Angel had some ridiculous numbers but all pale compared to Ionescu.

4. Consistency:
As noted above, year after year Sabrina has been the centerpiece of her team and performed at a high level. Most other players took more time to become a star player, or have had disappointing seasons along the way, whether it be poor team results or mediocre individual play. No one has brought it their first 3 years like Sabrina has.


4. Eye test:
Watch an average game of hers vs. an average game from anyone you listed...there's no comparison. She impacts the game at such a different level than almost all of the players you listed.

 

[bballnut90]

You can juggle the facts all you want but they lost their AA center and their pg (70 mins/game), without whom Baylor is a different offense and not anywhere near as big. Now they may go undefeated because there is talent but you don't appreciate the pressure of defending a title.
UConn "only" lost 2 players too. They will be an entirely new team this year, despite all the familiar faces.

Just to clarify, Brown/Jackson played a combined 59 minutes per game, not 70. They also have the best defensive big in the nation in Cox so I don't think lack of size is going to be any issue for Baylor

 

[Alydar]

Just to clarify, Brown/Jackson played a combined 59 minutes per game, not 70. They also have the best defensive big in the nation in Cox so I don't think lack of size is going to be any issue for Baylor

You are right. About 1/3 of the minutes in a game. Cox iss already playing about 30/game.
Cox is a great post but can she repeat everything she did AND carry a large part of what Brown did?
Can Cooper duplicate what Jackson did? Can she play long minutes with her fouling history? Or is her third team a sign of a problem? I don't know why she left SC but she had "chemistry" problems with her team mates and got tossed from Tenn.
Can Egbo handle minutes? She committed more fouls than Cox playing only half the minutes.
Why Is a post grad transfer from TT doing on a team if it is returning a roster that won it all?

Next April you may be looking for me but your Bears have a tougher road ahead than you expect.

 

[bballnut90]

You are right. About 1/3 of the minutes in a game. Cox iss already playing about 30/game.
Cox is a great post but can she repeat everything she did AND carry a large part of what Brown did?
Can Cooper duplicate what Jackson did? Can she play long minutes with her fouling history? Or is her third team a sign of a problem? I don't know why she left SC but she had "chemistry" problems with her team mates and got tossed from Tenn.
Can Egbo handle minutes? She committed more fouls than Cox playing only half the minutes.
Why Is a post grad transfer from TT doing on a team if it is returning a roster that won it all?

Next April you may be looking for me but your Bears have a tougher road ahead than you expect.

Lol they are not my Baylor Bears...just pointing out that they shouldn't be underestimated. And where you getting these numbers? Egbo committed 52 fouls a year ago, Cox 61. Degrate is there to provide depth inside, although I don't think anyone expects her to make big contributions. Never hurts to have another big in the lineup and at practice.

Cox also doesn't need to replace what Brown did. Much of that will fall on Smith and Egbo. Smith was absolutely sensational as a freshman in limited minutes and brings a different dimension to the table from Brown. Egbo looked good in relatively limited minutes, although she is rawer than Smith. She's a long and athletic shot blocker who will provide good depth off the bench. There is also Aquira Decosta who was the highest rated recruit of the bunch but never got into her flow last year due to an early injury. She'll likely be a contributor this season too and brings another dynamic with her athleticism. They'll obviously look quite different without Brown inside but they have all of the tools to be a dominant post oriented team again.

Cooper also doesn't have a history of foul trouble....team chemistry I'll give you though. I'm still puzzled why Mulkey wanted to take her instead of pushing hard for a player like Moore. Time will tell but if I'm a Baylor fan, my biggest concern is how Te'a Cooper affects chemistry.

 

[Alydar]

Lol they are not my Baylor Bears...just pointing out that they shouldn't be underestimated. And where you getting these numbers? Egbo committed 52 fouls a year ago, Cox 61. Degrate is there to provide depth inside, although I don't think anyone expects her to make big contributions. Never hurts to have another big in the lineup and at practice.

Cox also doesn't need to replace what Brown did. Much of that will fall on Smith and Egbo. Smith was absolutely sensational as a freshman in limited minutes and brings a different dimension to the table from Brown. Egbo looked good in relatively limited minutes, although she is rawer than Smith. She's a long and athletic shot blocker who will provide good depth off the bench. There is also Aquira Decosta who was the highest rated recruit of the bunch but never got into her flow last year due to an early injury. She'll likely be a contributor this season too and brings another dynamic with her athleticism. They'll obviously look quite different without Brown inside but they have all of the tools to be a dominant post oriented team again.

Cooper also doesn't have a history of foul trouble....team chemistry I'll give you though. I'm still puzzled why Mulkey wanted to take her instead of pushing hard for a player like Moore. Time will tell but if I'm a Baylor fan, my biggest concern is how Te'a Cooper affects chemistry.

The player I meant was Smith, whom I expect to pick up minutes. She had the 68 in half the minutes Cox played. But Egbo is another fouler. Yes, 52 fouls in 10min/game while Cox had 61 in 30min/game. Triple her mins to Cox's gives her 150+. Not necessarily but a potential problem. And Egbo is 6'3", not 6'6", mobile and huge. Neither of those two can replace what Brown gave. I would think that there needs to be some new roles for Cox and the other two. Toss in a new pg and despite many familiar names it will be a much different team.

 

[meyers7]

Cats don't have the discipline to play team sports. They tend towards gold and tennis.

IDK, Clyde was one cool cat. (but yea, he probably did tend towards gold)

 

[CocoHusky]

1. Transforming a program from not making the NCAA tournament to steadily improved results each year. Has culminated in: 3 Elite 8s, 1 Final Four, 2 Pac 12 Regular season titles,1 Pac 12 Tournament Championship. Steadily improved results each year.
Of the players above, only Angel and Diggins can claim to have elevated their programs in a similar manner, but Oregon has been more of a powerhouse than Louisville was with Angel, and Notre Dame was a Sweet 16 team before Diggins. Oregon was a WNIT team before Ionescu and has become a Final Four team and preseason #1 squad 4 years later. Sabrina has been the clear centerpiece of all 3 teams she's been on. Not the case for most players listed above.

Not steady improvement. Oregon had a better record the year before Sabrina arrived than it did when she was a freshmen and identical record in each of the past two years. That Angel and Skylar also elevated their programs in a similar manner kind of proves my point that Sabrina, although very good, is not a “transcendent” player any more than Wilson who elevated SC all the way to a championship.

2. Awards: She's likely going to be a 2x National Player of the Year, joining the likes of Stewart, Parker, Moore, and Augustus. As it stands right now, she has the following awards with 1 season left to go and she is likely going to add a lot of hardware:
-National Player of the Year, -2x Nancy Lieberman Award Winner -2x Pac 12 POY, -NCAA Regional MVP, -Pac 12 Tournament MVP, -National FOY
No one you listed is going to have near the accolades Sabrina will when she finishes at Oregon. Even now, I'd say only Sims/Diggins/Angel can really compare when looking at individual awards over a career. And that's with Sabrina not playing a minute of basketball as a senior.

Without playing a single minute as a senior Sabrina has 24 loses on her resume. That is more loses than Maya, Candace, and Stewie had COMBINED! In your own words “Sims/ Diggins/Angel are comparable players to Sabrina" underscoring my point that she is not transcendent. Even with another POY award she will not be even close to joining Maya, Candace, or Stewie.

3. Statistics: Sabrina is likely going to finish her career with over 2500 points, 1000 assists and 1000 rebounds. No one has ever had 2000/1000/1000, and the only person with 2000 points and 1000 assists is Vandersloot. She already owns the NCAA record for triple doubles with 2x as many the 2nd place person. Other players like Plum/Sims/Mitchell have high scoring, Sloot was an assist machine at a good mid major, and Angel had some ridiculous numbers but all pale compared to Ionescu.

Had to double check for a second but I believe I included Vandersloot on my list of comparable players to Sabrina. It seems that you are agreeing with the comparison.

4. Consistency:
As noted above, year after year Sabrina has been the centerpiece of her team and performed at a high level. Most other players took more time to become a star player, or have had disappointing seasons along the way, whether it be poor team results or mediocre individual play. No one has brought it their first 3 years like Sabrina has.

Are your serious right now? UNC freshman Diamond DeShields had a better freshmen season and tournament run than Sabrina did as a Freshmen. By the end of her junior season Stewie had collected 3 rings and 2 NPOY awards. At the conclusion of her junior season Maya Moore had lost only 2 games. At the conclusion of her junior season A’ja Wilson was an NCAA champion. At the conclusion of her junior season even your girl Teaira McCowan had made consecutive appearances in the championship game. At the conclusion of her junior season (her last) Jewell Loyd had competed in 3 consecutive FF and 2nd consecutive championship games. At the conclusion of her junior season Skylar Diggins was making consecutive appearances in the Championship game. At the conclusion of her junior season Chiney Ogwumike had led her team to consecutive FF appearances. Incidentally Sabrina is going to have to have one hell of a senior season to match the senior season of Chiney -26.1 PP and 12.1 RPG. Please aim lower while trying to big up Sabrina. I’ll kick it to you this way. Chiney’s junior season 22.4 PPG, and 12.9, FF appearance in more impressive than any season Sabrina has put together so for or is likely to put together. Both Chinney’s Junior and senior season would have resulted in NPOY awards except for the presences of Stewie on the WCBB stage. You may also want to go back a few pages in this thread and read @UConnCat post about the 4th quarter of the Baylor game. Consistency matters most at crunch times like those; Sabrina was not.

4. Eye test: Watch an average game of hers vs. an average game from anyone you listed...there's no comparison. She impacts the game at such a different level than almost all of the players you listed.

I have watched very closely. The eye test is not an “objective measure” but since you went there, my calibrated eye tells me that Moriah Jefferson (as an example) has more ways of impacting the game than Sabrina. I’m not going to go as far as a recent post that called Sabrina slow (slow footed?) but I’ll simply point out that in a conference, not exactly know for defense, Sabrina has yet to make an All-Pac 12 Defensive team. Moriah was NDPOY and a few of the other players I previously mentioned will D you up all day long=more ways to impact the game.

 

[bballnut90]

Not steady improvement. Oregon had a better record the year before Sabrina arrived than it did when she was a freshmen and identical record in each of the past two years. That Angel and Skylar also elevated their programs in a similar manner kind of proves my point that Sabrina, although very good, is not a “transcendent” player any more than Wilson who elevated SC all the way to a championship.

I never said she was transcendent.

Results:
Freshman year: 11 seed and Elite 8.
Sophomore year: 2 seed and Elite 8.
Junior year: 2 seed and Final Four.

That's steady improvement each year no matter how you try to spin it.

And are you really arguing that Oregon didn't improve when Sabrina arrived? Sure, they had 24 wins the year prior but they stacked up a lot of those in the WNIT. Oregon made the Elite 8 with Sabrina as a freshman and beat some very good teams to get there. Night and day difference.

Also, Angel's team only once made it past the Sweet 16, and it was somewhat of a Cinderella run as a 3 seed. They lost in the Sweet 16 as a junior and only made the 2nd round as a sophomore. They were never a title favorite like Oregon is going to be this year. She never elevated the program to the degree that Sabrina has.

And Wilson joined a team that was a #1 seed the year prior. Sure, she helped put them over the top but SC was already top dog in the SEC prior to her arrival. Not the same.

Without playing a single minute as a senior Sabrina has 24 loses on her resume. That is more loses than Maya, Candace, and Stewie had COMBINED! In your own words “Sims/ Diggins/Angel are comparable players to Sabrina" underscoring my point that she is not transcendent. Even with another POY award she will not be even close to joining Maya, Candace, or Stewie.

1. I never said she was in the ball park of Maya/Candace/Stewart.
2. Get your numbers correct, she has 23, not 24 losses.
2. Stop twisting my words. What I said was that Angel/Diggins/Sims have similar accolades or success over their 4 year careers that Sabrina has accomplished in just 3. If Sabrina has a comparable year to this year, she's going to be far ahead of those 3 when analyzing their finished careers.

Had to double check for a second but I believe I included Vandersloot on my list of comparable players to Sabrina. It seems that you are agreeing with the comparison.

Again, don't twist my words. What I was highlighting was how there is only one other player in NCAA history who has 2000p/1000a and Sabrina will probably finish with 2500p/1000r/1000a. She's going to be far ahead of Sloot in the stats department, and even further ahead of her in team/individual accomplishments. She totally blows anyone else out of the water when you compare statistics.

Are your serious right now? UNC freshman Diamond DeShields had a better freshmen season and tournament run than Sabrina did as a Freshmen.

How'd the rest of Diamond's collegiate career pan out? I was looking at the three years as a whole, not one year at a time.

By the end of her junior season Stewie had collected 3 rings and 2 NPOY awards. At the conclusion of her junior season Maya Moore had lost only 2 games. At the conclusion of her junior season A’ja Wilson was an NCAA champion. At the conclusion of her junior season even your girl Teaira McCowan had made consecutive appearances in the championship game.

Again, I'm comparing her to the list of players you mentioned. Not these players.

At the conclusion of her junior season (her last) Jewell Loyd had competed in 3 consecutive FF and 2nd consecutive championship games. At the conclusion of her junior season Skylar Diggins was making consecutive appearances in the Championship game. At the conclusion of her junior season Chiney Ogwumike had led her team to consecutive FF appearances. Incidentally Sabrina is going to have to have one hell of a senior season to match the senior season of Chiney -26.1 PP and 12.1 RPG. Please aim lower while trying to big up Sabrina. I’ll kick it to you this way. Chiney’s junior season 22.4 PPG, and 12.9, FF appearance in more impressive than any season Sabrina has put together so for or is likely to put together. Both Chinney’s Junior and senior season would have resulted in NPOY awards except for the presences of Stewie on the WCBB stage. You may also want to go back a few pages in this thread and read @UConnCat post about the 4th quarter of the Baylor game. Consistency matters most at crunch times like those; Sabrina was not.

Now you're bringing Chiney Ogwumike into this? Good lord. The entire response I made was to point out how inaccurate it is that you're comparing all of those players to Sabrina Ionescu when Sabrina is clearly superior to anyone on that list. Seems like you're willing to go to no end to avoid giving certain players credit instead of just admitting that you're wrong. First McCowan, now Ionescu.

 

[CocoHusky]

She (Angel) never elevated the program to the degree that Sabrina has.

Now you are just contradicting yourself.

Of the players above, only Angel and Diggins can claim to have elevated their programs in a similar manner.

I never said she was in the ball park of Maya/Candace/Stewart.

Sure you did.

She's likely going to be a 2x National Player of the Year, joining the likes of Stewart, Parker, Moore, and Augustus.

2. Get your numbers correct, she has 23, not 24 losses.

Take off your socks and shoes & use your toes or pull out a calculator. 23 sounds so much better than 24 I know. Oregon record by year (2016-17) 23 -14 : (2017-18) 33-5 : (2018-19) 33-5 2017-2018 Women's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - University of Oregon Athletics

2. Stop twisting my words. What I said was that Angel/Diggins/Sims have similar accolades or success over their 4 year careers that Sabrina has accomplished in just 3.

What you actually said was:

Even now, I'd say only Sims/Diggins/Angel can really compare when looking at individual awards over a career.

My bad for actually reading what you wrote instead of what you meant to write.

Now you're bringing Chiney Ogwumike into this? Good lord. The entire response I made was to point out how inaccurate it is that you're comparing all of those players to Sabrina Ionescu when Sabrina is clearly superior to anyone on that list. Seems like you're willing to go to no end to avoid giving certain players credit instead of just admitting that you're wrong. First McCowan, now Ionescu.

Yes I’m bringing Chiney Ogwumike because among Sabrina’s accolades you listed Pac 12 POY. Point being that conference has “recently” had comparable players than have accomplished more than Sabrina has and no one was hyping then up as much as you are doing for Sabrina. Or maybe you were, who knows. I’m not avoiding giving Sabrina credit she is a terrific player. What I’m actually doing is deflating these overblow trial balloons that you tend to create when you compare Sabrina to Maya or McCowan to Sylvia Fowles.

 

[bballnut90]

Sure you did.

No I didnt. Please point out where I did this.

Take off your socks and shoes & use your toes or pull out a calculator. 23 sounds so much better than 24 I know. Oregon record by year (2016-17) 23 -14 : (2017-18) 33-5 : (2018-19) 33-5 2017-2018 Women's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - University of Oregon Athletics

You are correct....I went off Graves wiki page. I can admit when I am wrong.

What you actually said was:

My bad for actually reading what you wrote instead of what you meant to write.

Note how I said, "even now" which is indicative of Sabrina in 3 years of accomplishments while the others have 4.

Yes I’m bringing Chiney Ogwumike because among Sabrina’s accolades you listed Pac 12 POY. Point being that conference has “recently” had comparable players than have accomplished more than Sabrina has and no one was hyping then up as much as you are doing for Sabrina. Or maybe you were, who knows. I’m not avoiding giving Sabrina credit she is a terrific player. What I’m actually doing is deflating these overblow trial balloons that you tend to create when you compare Sabrina to Maya or McCowan to Sylvia Fowles. View attachment 46824

Again, never said she is comparable to Moore. How about you actually provide a defense for the players you claim are peers to Sabrina instead of deflecting and nitpicking?

 

[nwhoopfan]

At the conclusion of her junior season Chiney Ogwumike had led her team to consecutive FF appearances

Hold on a minute there. Chiney joined a stacked roster, she was certainly a contributor but to say she "led her team" is simply not true. As a Fr. and Soph she had teammates like Jayne Appel, Kayla Pedersen and her sister Nneka. As a Jr. once the rest of them had graduated, Stanford only made it to the Sweet 16. The only time she "led" her team to the Final 4 was her Sr. year.


That's the thing about all this endless arguing about whether someone is transcendent or dominant and using team success as the ultimate measuring stick. There are 4 other players on the court. How can you measure how much of the success is due to one individual player vs. the combined talent of the 5 on the court? You can't.

 

[j66kicker]

That's the thing about all this endless arguing about whether someone is transcendent or dominant and using team success as the ultimate measuring stick. There are 4 other players on the court. How can you measure how much of the success is due to one individual player vs. the combined talent of the 5 on the court? You can't.

Team success has to be a prerequisite part of that "ultimate measuring stick." Not sure I can exactly define "transcendent," but know it when I see it. NWIH you can be a "transcendent" player with zero championships.

Does this mean Patrick Ewing, Dan Marino, etc., were not "transcendent"? It absolutely does.

Michael Jordan:
- 6 NBA finals
- 6 NBA championships
- 6X Finals MVP
That's transcendent.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Michael Jordan:
- 6 NBA finals
- 6 NBA championships
- 6X Finals MVP
That's transcendent.

Well he's generally considered to be the GOAT (LeBron has crept into the conversation), so that's a pretty easy call to make.

 

[DallasBUFan]

The player I meant was Smith, whom I expect to pick up minutes. She had the 68 in half the minutes Cox played. But Egbo is another fouler. Yes, 52 fouls in 10min/game while Cox had 61 in 30min/game. Triple her mins to Cox's gives her 150+. Not necessarily but a potential problem. And Egbo is 6'3", not 6'6", mobile and huge. Neither of those two can replace what Brown gave. I would think that there needs to be some new roles for Cox and the other two. Toss in a new pg and despite many familiar names it will be a much different team.

Egbo could out jump Kalani. She also played with team USA this summer and has developed emmensly. Remember the number 1 freshman class is now sophomores with a National Championship under their belt. Cox is the quarter back and will probably lead in nearly every category on the team. Juicy will be juicy, but even more confident. Didi is the best perimeter defender in the big 12 and quite possibly a top 5 defender over all in the nation. Who has been working on developing more of an outside shot. I'd watch out for Moon Ursin off the bench and a healthy Acquira Decosta...

Also, Baylor was Jackson's third school also.

 

[Alydar]

Egbo could out jump Kalani. She also played with team USA this summer and has developed emmensly. Remember the number 1 freshman class is now sophomores with a National Championship under their belt. Cox is the quarter back and will probably lead in nearly every category on the team. Juicy will be juicy, but even more confident. Didi is the best perimeter defender in the big 12 and quite possibly a top 5 defender over all in the nation. Who has been working on developing more of an outside shot. I'd watch out for Moon Ursin off the bench and a healthy Acquira Decosta...

Also, Baylor was Jackson's third school also.

All true. I'm not arguing that Baylor isn't in the hunt for a title, just that there are a lot of questions to be answered, just like with other teams.

Egbo could out jump Kalani

Maybe. But who would come down with the ball?

 

[DallasBUFan]

All true. I'm not arguing that Baylor isn't in the hunt for a title, just that there are a lot of questions to be answered, just like with other teams.

Not quite as many questions as others.

Maybe. But who would come down with the ball?

They said Queen. Kalani was more of a scorer than a rebounder. Rebounding is just as much about want and will than about Size.

 

[LoTrader]

Now you are just contradicting yourself.


Sure you did.


Take off your socks and shoes & use your toes or pull out a calculator. 23 sounds so much better than 24 I know. Oregon record by year (2016-17) 23 -14 : (2017-18) 33-5 : (2018-19) 33-5 2017-2018 Women's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - University of Oregon Athletics

What you actually said was:

My bad for actually reading what you wrote instead of what you meant to write.

Yes I’m bringing Chiney Ogwumike because among Sabrina’s accolades you listed Pac 12 POY. Point being that conference has “recently” had comparable players than have accomplished more than Sabrina has and no one was hyping then up as much as you are doing for Sabrina. Or maybe you were, who knows. I’m not avoiding giving Sabrina credit she is a terrific player. What I’m actually doing is deflating these overblow trial balloons that you tend to create when you compare Sabrina to Maya or McCowan to Sylvia Fowles. View attachment 46824

How about we agree to disagree.