Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[tazmaz]

I think this year you have 3 teams far superior to the rest of the field, UCONN (especially if Westbrook is given this year to play), & Baylor & Oregon!
These 3 can make the Final Four if they remain healthy! They have the pieces to go the distance!
Now picking the 4th team that's the rub!
Any of Stanford, Oregon St., TXA&M, TX, Miss ST, L'ville, DePaul, & SoCar have reasons that they could make it to the Final Four and also they have reasons they won't get out of the Elite 8! Who's going to be the hottest at the right time? My picks to have that shot is Stanford, Oregon St and Miss ST as I really like their Head Coaches to make the most of their team chemistry!
But then again that's why they play the games!

DePaul? I better brush up on them. That’s a shocker.

 

[willtalk]

When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whoever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide-open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.

I think the player that will be affected the most by Brown.s absence is Smith. She did most of her offensive damage by getting garbage points O-boards and driving open lanes in from close in. Without Brown commanding that attention those open lanes will be far fewer. I don't know if she has the physicality to play a traditional post and seems to lack the 3pt shot and defense to play the and guard the 3. She would be suited more for the 4 but that would mean Cox would have to play the post a position that would not take advantage of her skill set. Kim might have to choose between either Cox or Smith in respect as to who to put in their most advantageous position. Of course, she could always play Smith at the 5, but we don't really know how she would fare there.

 

[Tonyc]

You saw what happened against ND when Cox got hurt. Without 2 bigs Baylor is not as strong unless somebody steps up to take the pressure off Cox.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Another area that people haven't brought up is Baylor's passing and A/TO. As a team they had a remarkable 1.7 A/TO ratio. Cox, Richards and Landrum each had over 140 assists better than a 2:1 A/TO ratio. Ursin also had 55 assists to just 25 turnovers and is a pretty good utility player for being just 5-6. They're going to be very good once again even if it takes time to adjust and improve. Their schedule is also very light when you factor in Big 12 play, the only games I can see them losing are @Uconn, vs. South Carolina and maybe one of the Texas games if lightning strikes twice.

Baylor’s traditionally “light” (I prefer the word “embarrassing”) out of conference schedule is why I can’t get behind Baylor. They are a top program. They should act like it and schedule worthy opponents instead of a bunch of teams ranked 300+.

 

[meyers7]

The last time Baylor won a title they got eliminated in the S16 the next year .... despite bringing back a team that went undefeated the year before. Like the stock salesmen, the past is no guarantee of future performance.

Tara has hit a sort of tipping point as far as talent and you have to include her in the FF. Having the best team during the season? Dubious, but Tara is a huge asset in the NCAA's, especially in games 3 & 5. Give her 6 days and Tara will devise a way to beat the devil.

So you're thinking Stanford will be playing TN in the FF????

 

[meyers7]

I don't take any stock in preseason polls, especially final four polls. April is 7 months away. Many things can happen in 7 months, most notably injuries to key players. It’s hard to pick FF teams right after the brackets have been announced, let alone 7 months out.

If Baylor is sent out west, and Oregon and Stanford are there also, would you still pick them to come out of that regional? Baylor being a #1 seed is not a given or should be taken for granted. UConn was a #2 seed last year remember? Crap happens. And sometimes it happens to you (your team).

We'll all have a better idea of who the contenders and the pretenders are after the first month of the season. Just before the holiday break.

That time frame should produce enough games for us to form an intelligent opinion on who’s trending towards a FF in April, and who’s not. The contenders will begin to break away and rise to the top of the national standings, while pretenders begin their slide.

Carnac, really?, you, Carnac, don't see the value of looking blindly into the future????

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Agree, not sure what people are seeing in Texas A&M.

Hmmm Stanford, Texas A&M, UCONN, Oregon. No Baylor??

Best part....no TN.

Some of us never forget. Your best quality @meyers7 ...

 

[oldude]

I think the player that will be affected the most by Brown.s absence is Smith. She did most of her offensive damage by getting garbage points O-boards and driving open lanes in from close in. Without Brown commanding that attention those open lanes will be far fewer. I don't know if she has the physicality to play a traditional post and seems to lack the 3pt shot and defense to play the and guard the 3. She would be suited more for the 4 but that would mean Cox would have to play the post a position that would not take advantage of her skill set. Kim might have to choose between either Cox or Smith in respect as to who to put in their most advantageous position. Of course, she could always play Smith at the 5, but we don't really know how she would fare there.

Excellent point

The last time Baylor won a title they got eliminated in the S16 the next year .... despite bringing back a team that went undefeated the year before. Like the stock salesmen, the past is no guarantee of future performance.

Tara has hit a sort of tipping point as far as talent and you have to include her in the FF. Having the best team during the season? Dubious, but Tara is a huge asset in the NCAA's, especially in games 3 & 5. Give her 6 days and Tara will devise a way to beat the devil.

Tara is a great coach whose teams usually build momentum through the course of the season. While I agree that Stanford is bringing in some incredibly talented recruits, usually freshmen don’t carry teams to FF’s, with the notable exception of Stewie.

The graduation of Smith is a big loss for the Cardinal. While a number of solid veteran players return, whether or not Tara can get many of her rookies up to speed for the Big Dance will largely determine if Stanford is a FF team this season.

 

[CocoHusky]

Still have Egbo and Smith who will take on larger roles. Neither is as big as Kalani but Smith should pair very well alongside Cox. She was outstanding as a freshman. Egbo is a long and athletic 6-3 who provides good backup in the post. Also look for Decosta to get a lot more playing time at the 3/4 spots. Most importantly, they have Cox back who defensively plays bigger than anyone else in the nation.

The biggest issue for them is incorporating Te'a Cooper. She hasnt shown point guard ability or decision making skills and is now taking over for Mulkey which I think could be a net negative. Landrum is an underrated 2 and Richards is a stellar defender on the wing so the perimeter is going to be strong without Jackson. Just all hinges on Cooper IMO.

If it all hinges on Cooper then it is bound to sag or fall apart completely. Baylor WBB is defending champions with many major pieces returning and a top 10 incoming true PG in Oliver. If Mulkey makes integrating Cooper a priority what would the message be to rest of the team?

 

[oldude]

If it all hinges on Cooper then it is bound to sag or fall apart completely. Baylor WBB is defending champions with many major pieces returning and a top 10 incoming true PG in Oliver. If Mulkey makes integrating Cooper a priority what would the message be to rest of the team?

A couple thoughts on Cooper. Clearly, she is a talented basketball player. Unfortunately, Cooper has been shown the door at both TN and SC for various reasons. The one thing I do know about Kim Mulkey is that while she will give a troubled kid a chance to redeem herself, just as quickly, she will cut that kid loose if she doesn't meet Kim's expectations. Time will tell whether or not Cooper takes advantage of this, her last opportunity to effectively lead a D1 team in a positive manner or, once again, becomes a source of discord.

 

[LoTrader]

And so it finally begins...PAC-12 getting some love from the national media. Will PAC-12 deliver this season?

 

[TerpWomenFan]

And so it finally begins...PAC-12 getting some love from the national media. Will PAC-12 deliver this season?

They usually do against Maryland.

 

[CocoHusky]

And so it finally begins...PAC-12 getting some love from the national media. Will PAC-12 deliver this season?

Depends on the status of Prince IMO. Prince, if eligible and healthy, would dramatically tip the scales in Oregon's favor in a rematch with Baylor and or UCONN.

 

[bballnut90]

Depends on the status of Prince IMO. Prince, if eligible and healthy, would dramatically tip the scales in Oregon's favor in a rematch with Baylor and or UCONN.

Deck is already stacked on Oregon's side. They return their 3 best players and get in a top transfer to replace Cazorla. Prince is gravy if eligible.

 

[CocoHusky]

Deck is already stacked on Oregon's side. They return their 3 best players and get in a top transfer to replace Cazorla. Prince is gravy if eligible.

At my house gravy is kind of mandatory at Thanksgiving. I'm thinking specifically of FF matchup of Oregon vs UCONN/Baylor. Agree that Oregon is stacked but against Baylor Prince tips the scale in Oregon favor because of these matchups (Prince & Hebard) > (Cox & Smith)> (ONO & Adebayo).

 

[bballnut90]

At my house gravy is kind of mandatory at Thanksgiving. I'm thinking specifically of FF matchup of Oregon vs UCONN/Baylor. Agree that Oregon is stacked but against Baylor Prince tips the scale in Oregon favor because of these matchups (Prince & Hebard) > (Cox & Smith)> (ONO & Adebayo).

The scale is already heavily tipped in Oregon's favor without Prince. Prince isn't starting even if she is healthy. The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN's, while their backcourt of Moore/Sabrina give them a big edge over Baylor.

 

[CocoHusky]

The scale is already heavily tipped in Oregon's favor without Prince. Prince isn't starting even if she is healthy. The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN's, while their backcourt of Moore/Sabrina give them a big edge over Baylor.

Not saying Prince is going to start. Sabally is not the "post" presence that Prince can provide. Almost 1/2 of Sabally shots come from behind the arc and she is only the team's 3 leading rebounder. Smith's offensive rebounds were lethal against UCONN so Oregon needs someone to keep Smith off the boards.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

DePaul? I better brush up on them. That’s a shocker.

tazmaz-----I really like Doug Bruno as a HC and every year he has a highly compettive team so even though they're a "dark horse" selection it's more of a sentimental choice for me! Sorry 'bout that!

 

[oldude]

The scale is already heavily tipped in Oregon's favor without Prince. Prince isn't starting even if she is healthy. The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN's, while their backcourt of Moore/Sabrina give them a big edge over Baylor.

I would respectfully disagree that “The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN’s.” While the Ducks may have a more experienced post in Hebard, UConn’s combination of Liv, Megan & Evelyn could be formidable, particularly by the end of the season when UConn is usually firing on all cylinders, assuming that the Ducks and the Huskies meet a second time in the Big Dance.

 

[DeeHusky]

Smith is only 6’1 or 2 I think. Mulkey is a huge believer in back to basket, traditional BIGS. There’s no way in the world Smith will be the 5. She is an excellent rebounder and she can a score against just about anybody or at least I believe. She will be just fine at the 4. If not they still have Erin Degrate and Queen Egbo other bigs to clog the lane with Cox.

 

[donalddoowop]

You saw what happened against ND when Cox got hurt. Without 2 bigs Baylor is not as strong unless somebody steps up to take the pressure off Cox.

I noticed last season that on a number of occasions when Cox was in without Brown, her defense was suspect and I don't mean her shot blocking. She had trouble keeping players in front of her and on offense she was not as strong as when Brown was also in. She had her shots blocked inside by shorter players and she was harassed into missing her jumpers. She was still effective but not nearly so without Brown in the game. I believe Smith could be the biggest difference in Baylor's success.

 

[donalddoowop]

Whose Andy Katz?

Surely you joke. He is one of the most informed college basketball, men's and women's, experts in the country. He is known more on the men's side. He usually does his homework.

 

[CocoHusky]

I would respectfully disagree that “The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN’s.” While the Ducks may have a more experienced post in Hebard, UConn’s combination of Liv, Megan & Evelyn could be formidable, particularly by the end of the season when UConn is usually firing on all cylinders, assuming that the Ducks and the Huskies meet a second time in the Big Dance.

Games played together:
Sabally/Hebard = 76
ONO/Megan=38
ONO/Megan/Evelyn=0

 

[oldude]

Games played together:
Sabally/Hebard = 76
ONO/Megan=38
ONO/Megan/Evelyn=0

OK, so your point is?

 

[CocoHusky]

OK, so your point is?

Oregon has a "big front court edge" vs UCONN, 2X in experience alone.