Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[oldude]

Oregon has a "big front court edge" vs UCONN, 2X in experience alone.

That’s not a given, particularly when it comes to Geno & CD’s ability to mold a very talented group of players into a cohesive unit over the course of a season.

 

[JordyG]

When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whomever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.

Yes, but I think the double team on Brown benefited Smith's isolation and mid range game even more.

 

[JordyG]

Oregon has a "big front court edge" vs UCONN, 2X in experience alone.

That’s not a given, particularly when it comes to Geno & CD’s ability to mold a very talented group of players into a cohesive unit over the course of a season.

I see both sides.

 

[eebmg]

I see both sides.

I am trying but it is harder than I thought

 

[bballnut90]

I would respectfully disagree that “The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN’s.” While the Ducks may have a more experienced post in Hebard, UConn’s combination of Liv, Megan & Evelyn could be formidable, particularly by the end of the season when UConn is usually firing on all cylinders, assuming that the Ducks and the Huskies meet a second time in the Big Dance.

At this point Hebard is significantly better than ONO, and Sabally is notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here.

 

[Reypl21]

I would respectfully disagree that “The frontcourt of Sabally/Hebard gives them a big edge over UCONN’s.” While the Ducks may have a more experienced post in Hebard, UConn’s combination of Liv, Megan & Evelyn could be formidable, particularly by the end of the season when UConn is usually firing on all cylinders, assuming that the Ducks and the Huskies meet a second time in the Big Dance.

I'm sorry, but Sabally is better than Megan and Evelyn. Hebard and Liv are going to guard each other primarily. Sabally can score at all three levels, has more speed and quickness, and has more length. Megan would be an elite 3 in WCBB. She can pass as a 4 and be productive against most teams. Against Oregon, she will be overmatched by Sabally. Megan has the edge at being able to defend and not get into could trouble.

 

[eebmg]

Oh god. Can we forfeit now?

 

[JordyG]

At this point Hebard is significantly better than ONO, and Sabally is notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here.

So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?

 

[oldude]

I'm sorry, but Sabally is better than Megan and Evelyn. Hebard and Liv are going to guard each other primarily. Sabally can score at all three levels, has more speed and quickness, and has more length. Megan would be an elite 3 in WCBB. She can pass as a 4 and be productive against most teams. Against Oregon, she will be overmatched by Sabally. Megan has the edge at being able to defend and not get into could trouble.

We will have to see, but there is little doubt in anyone’s mind, including most OR fans, that Geno will outcoach Graves head to head. With that in mind, I can’t wait for the Ducks to visit Gampel on Feb 3.

 

[oldude]

At this point Hebard is significantly better than ONO, and Sabally is notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here.

Time will tell.

 

[CocoHusky]

That’s not a given, particularly when it comes to Geno & CD’s ability to mold a very talented group of players into a cohesive unit over the course of a season.

Love Geno & CD more than anyone. Think you are way over reaching here. Sabolly & Hebard have played 76 games together under a pretty good coach themselves. That fact alone makes them twice "as experienced" as Megan and ONO. That is a big advantage IMO.

 

[eebmg]

So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?

I think in the complete picture, Hebard as a senior is significantly better overall than sophomore ONO but part of it may be that she has developed a strong 'telepathic' cohesion with Sabrina and she is not on the squad so some of the advantage may be removed.

More to the point, I thought ONO was picked because of her potential in general and her shot blocking (i.e. fill a specific need) and being a true big girl option against teams where that could be a strong advantage.

 

[CocoHusky]

So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?

Definitely not favoritism. ONO was chosen for FIBA Americup because she was a better fit for that team and yes ONO probably outperformed Ruthy at the camp. We are not talking about the camp. We are talking Oregon vs UCONN. Ruthy has been playing excellent basketball alongside Sabrina for 3 full season now and with Sabally for 2. She has a huge advantage vs ONO who has been playing with her UCONN teammates for only 1 season.

 

[Alydar]

Not saying Prince is going to start. Sabally is not the "post" presence that Prince can provide. Almost 1/2 of Sabally shots come from behind the arc and she is only the team's 3 leading rebounder. Smith's offensive rebounds were lethal against UCONN so Oregon needs someone to keep Smith off the boards.

Oregon's Achilles heel is the same as their strength, Ionescu, believe it or not. When one player is your leading scorer, leading assist leader and the often the leading rebounder her performance is critical. If she goes down or has a less than stellar performance Oregon risks losing. And in the NCAA's everyone has one bad game (anyone not named Stewart). She will be the major reason if Oregon wins a title and the goat if they lose. Now admittedly she has very few mediocre games and fewer bad games, but when you put your eggs in a small basket that's a risk. Oregon has not done well in games she missed.

My preference of course is for UConn to win the title but if not then I'd like to see Sabrina win one. She's been dominating for her entire career.

 

[bballnut90]

So why was ONO chosen over Hebert for the FIBA Americup if she's "significantly" better? To me it was clear that the real competition for the final forward spot was between her and ONO. Do you think it was favoritism, was it because Dawn had seen more of ONO than Hebert previous to the training camp, or do you think ONO filled a specific need?

Maybe she improved by leaps and bounds in a short time frame, or maybe they needed a stronger shot blocker...I couldn't tell you why. Going by how each player looked playing college basketball last season, there's no comparison though. Hebard was far and away a better player than ONO.

 

[DefenseBB]

Short but sweet. As for me however, Texas A and M has much to prove, returning starters or not.

This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB

 

[bballnut90]

We will have to see, but there is little doubt in anyone’s mind, including most OR fans, that Geno will outcoach Graves head to head. With that in mind, I can’t wait for the Ducks to visit Gampel on Feb 3.

Yeah there is a lot of doubt. Graves is solidly one of the best coaches in the country and gets his team to play very cohesive basketball. He also develops his players and game plans brilliantly (see Mississippi State games this year). Probably the best new P5 coach in quite some time. Historically Geno is obviously the superior coach, but playing head to head this year I don't see one out coaching to the point of it being a big determining factor. Oregon looks stronger on paper but I imagine this game will be competitive and a very winnable game for UCONN.

 

[Alydar]

At this point Hebard is significantly better than ONO, and Sabally is notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here.

Hebard WAS significantly better than ONO last season. But this summer it was ONO playing on the senior select team. Now some might just say Geno put the fix on, but ONO isn't lost playing and practicing with Fowles, Charles et al. Add to that the long history of talented UConn players seemingly regressing in their 1st year only to rise like a phoenix from their freshman ashes to become an AA.
So I would remove "significantly" from your comparison and bold "at this time".

 

[DefenseBB]

Well, we here on the BY need to remedy that perception-the PAC12 is an overhyped, underachieving lot of teams whose conference hasn’t won a title since 1992! There, feel better?

 

[JordyG]

Definitely not favoritism. ONO was chosen for FIBA Americup because she was a better fit for that team and yes ONO probably outperformed Ruthy at the camp. We are not talking about the camp. We are talking Oregon vs UCONN. Ruthy has been playing excellent basketball alongside Sabrina for 3 full season now and with Sabally for 2. She has a huge advantage vs ONO who has been playing with her UCONN teammates for only 1 season.

I mostly agree. In many ways though most responses here are talking about experience with a system, the players around her, excellent play for a length of time, and her play in and with competition. But the quote was Hebard is "significantly" better than ONO. The things many have mentioned here seem peripheral to the statement. Given that, I don't think Hebard is significantly better than ONO. Not that these peripheral things aren't important, and they may be an important factor when the two teams meet up. But Hebard "significantly" better than ONO? I may be wrong, but uh-uh. Last year was last year. Anyone here think that ONO would have beaten out Hebard for a spot on the team last year? Not a chance. ONO's sophomore leap clearly appears to be the thing that is significant. No, to me the difference in the upcoming game will be the play of Sabrina and not the edge up front.

 

[oldude]

Yeah there is a lot of doubt. Graves is solidly one of the best coaches in the country and gets his team to play very cohesive basketball. He also develops his players and game plans brilliantly (see Mississippi State games this year). Probably the best new P5 coach in quite some time. Historically Geno is obviously the superior coach, but playing head to head this year I don't see one out coaching to the point of it being a big determining factor. Oregon looks stronger on paper but I imagine this game will be competitive and a very winnable game for UCONN.

I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.

 

[bballnut90]

This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB

Looking at the stats, Chennedy Carter shot 38.9% from the floor in conference play, 31.5% from deep, took over 20 shots per game and had a .74 A/TO ratio, averaging nearly 4 turnovers per game. Carter is absolutely talented and has skills no one else does in WCBB, but she has not shown ability to play cohesively with teammates on the court. She takes a LOT of shots and doesn't defer to teammates. Based on players transferring (likely due to her) and her general style of play and demeanor, she's always given off a "me first" attitude rather than a team oriented demeanor. If A&M steps up and becomes a Final Four team, Carter will need to play more selflessly, improve her shot selection and focus on getting teammates involved rather than taking so many shots? Can it happen? We'll see. The potential is there, but getting a player to switch their mindset while playing is a more difficult task than developing a certain skill IMO. We saw players like Meighan Simmons never improve in this area, while Victoria Vivians and Kelsey Plum made much better decisions their senior seasons. I personally will be surprised if Carter does make the transition to being a more selfless player, but she could very well prove me wrong. I'm confident that Texas A&M's success 100% revolves around her though.

 

[SCspur]

This isn’t so much a retort at my fine colleague JordyG as it is a reflective overview of our perceived bias against one Chennedy Carter. To wit, after her freshmen year where she failed to mesh with two really good players in Anriel Howard and Danni Williams who promptly transferred out of the program, many of us thought “ugh oh, what is going on under Gary?” I was super skeptical especially after Chennedy’s early season suspension. But then somehow, the team started to gel and played very well at the end of the year with a young squad. I became more analytical in my assessment in the concept that maybe Gary Blair feels he has his Maya Moore/Diana Taurasi sans the great supporting cast they had, but with a pretty good supporting cast. Look, I am not saying CC is DT or MM but she is a talent and talent not only plays but also wins at the NCAA level. Plus Gary Blair is a really good coach and he does have an NCAA Title. He is still at or near the top of his game as a coach even at his age.. The real question is Can they all take that next step up to become a great team worthy of a final four. Without a doubt in my mind, they are better than ANYONE else in the SEC. Are they a shoe in for the Final Four? No, of course not but they are in that short list of potential teams. Baylor, Oregon, OSU, UConn, Louisville, Stanford and Texas A&M. Yes, I specifically left off Maryland (BTW I just bought the season tickets for their games), MSU, SC, NC State (I might qualify Wes’s team as my sleeper pick!).
So look at the A&M stats from last year, pause and think about and then let us know all your thoughts -those who doubt the Aggies. Humbly. Submitted DBB

What makes you so sure of this??

 

[bballnut90]

I think Graves is a great recruiter who has done an outstanding job of building a top tier WBB program at Oregon, with a big assist from Phil Knight. I also give credit to Graves for being smart enough to let Ionescu take over big games to win or lose with the ball in your best player’s hands, as he did this past season against MS St in the Elite 8 and Baylor in the National Semifinal. Once upon a time Geno did much the same thing with DT and later on with Maya.

As others have pointed out, if Ionescu is neutralized, as she was in two straight Elite 8 games by UConn & ND respectively, Graves has yet to demonstrate there’s a Plan B.

True, but even with Ionescu having a dreadful game vs. Baylor, Oregon had the game tied with under a minute to go. That's a pretty good plan A failure even if it didn't end up as a win.

 

[bballnut90]

Hebard WAS significantly better than ONO last season. But this summer it was ONO playing on the senior select team. Now some might just say Geno put the fix on, but ONO isn't lost playing and practicing with Fowles, Charles et al. Add to that the long history of talented UConn players seemingly regressing in their 1st year only to rise like a phoenix from their freshman ashes to become an AA.
So I would remove "significantly" from your comparison and bold "at this time".

Fair enough, abut my opinion stays the same. I'd restate it as, "As of April, Hebard was significantly better than ONO, and Sabally was notably better than Walker. UCONN's duo will no doubt improve and may prove me wrong but I think Oregon has a big edge here."