The next two weeks will show us if UConn might have an NCAA at large bid in them. 7 home games are coming up, one against Central, and 3 each on the weekends against Wichita State and South Florida, the two teams that are at the bottom of the AAC standings. Need to win 5 or 6 games in this stretch at a bare minimum. That would get UConn over .500 in the AAC and solve that problem. If they don't win these games, losing these games at home will kill their RPI.
Wins needed for 2019 NCAA Bid
- Thread starter ucjoet
- Start date
The next two weeks will show us if UConn might have an NCAA at large bid in them. 7 home games are coming up, one against Central, and 3 each on the weekends against Wichita State and South Florida, the two teams that are at the bottom of the AAC standings. Need to win 5 or 6 games in this stretch at a bare minimum. That would get UConn over .500 in the AAC and solve that problem. If they don't win these games, losing these games at home will kill their RPI.
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Did what we needed to do today, and got some work in for pitchers we may need the rest of year. This weekend is huge. Need at minimum 2 wins this weekend vs Wichita State at home. Hoping for a great crowd in Hartford. I will be there Friday and Saturday.
Our winning % is at .600 (not bad) and our RPI is at 26 ( very good). ECU and us are the only AAC teams with .500 or better % vs the Q1. We just need to do well in these last 9 AAC games. Lets hope they can make a nice end of season push.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 27 -18/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
Our winning % is at .600 (not bad) and our RPI is at 26 ( very good). ECU and us are the only AAC teams with .500 or better % vs the Q1. We just need to do well in these last 9 AAC games. Lets hope they can make a nice end of season push.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 27 -18/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
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Baseball America: 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field of 64 (5/1/19)
UConn is projected a #3 seed in the Raleigh NC Regional (w/ host UNC (#15 overall seed).
ECU hosting in Greenville (#8 overall)
Houston #3 seed in Corvallis.
>>Another conference to watch is the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina is running away with the title and projects as a top-eight seed. But the rest of the league’s chances are muddled. Cincinnati and Tulane are tied for second place, but neither ranks in the top 75 in RPI, making the path to an at-large bid onerous. Connecticut has a top-30 RPI but still needs to improve its 7-8 conference record and has lost back-to-back series. Houston has a top-45 RPI but is 9-9 in league action after losing a series at last-place South Florida. The American will be a multi-bid league, but other than ECU, its members are not making the committee’s job easy.<<
UConn is projected a #3 seed in the Raleigh NC Regional (w/ host UNC (#15 overall seed).
ECU hosting in Greenville (#8 overall)
Houston #3 seed in Corvallis.
>>Another conference to watch is the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina is running away with the title and projects as a top-eight seed. But the rest of the league’s chances are muddled. Cincinnati and Tulane are tied for second place, but neither ranks in the top 75 in RPI, making the path to an at-large bid onerous. Connecticut has a top-30 RPI but still needs to improve its 7-8 conference record and has lost back-to-back series. Houston has a top-45 RPI but is 9-9 in league action after losing a series at last-place South Florida. The American will be a multi-bid league, but other than ECU, its members are not making the committee’s job easy.<<
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D1Baseball: College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: May 1
UConn is projected by D1Baseball as the #2 seed in the Miami Regional (w/ host University of Miami as the #15 overall seed).
ECU hosting in Greenville as the #9 overall seed.
Houston is projected as the #3 seed in Lubbock Texas
Last Five In: Houston, Indiana State, Florida, Clemson, Iowa
First Five Out: Illinois State, BYU, Texas, Washington, Oregon
Overall bids break down by conference: SEC (11), ACC (8), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (5), Pac 12 (5), American (3) and Big West (2).
UConn is projected by D1Baseball as the #2 seed in the Miami Regional (w/ host University of Miami as the #15 overall seed).
ECU hosting in Greenville as the #9 overall seed.
Houston is projected as the #3 seed in Lubbock Texas
Last Five In: Houston, Indiana State, Florida, Clemson, Iowa
First Five Out: Illinois State, BYU, Texas, Washington, Oregon
Overall bids break down by conference: SEC (11), ACC (8), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (5), Pac 12 (5), American (3) and Big West (2).
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From D1Baseball’s Week 12 Postseason Stock Report
>>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)
SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane
>>No change from last week. UConn’s No. 25 RPI and 7-7 record against the top 50 keep it off the bubble for now, but it must improve its 7-8 record in the American to secure its position. With home series coming up against Wichita State and South Florida, we expect the Huskies to take care of business.
Houston remains on the right side of the bubble even after a series loss at USF, but its footing has certainly gotten more tenuous. The Cougars are just 9-9 in the American and No. 42 in the RPI, with a 5-7 record against the top 50. We still like their chances to finish strong with home series coming up against UNLV and Tulane plus a road set at UCF.
Tulane remains the only other viable postseason contender in the American, but the Green Wave really needed to win their series against East Carolina last weekend, and they did not. At 9-5 in the American and No. 82 in the RPI, Tulane still has an outside chance if it can finish red-hot and boost that RPI 30-plus spots, but we don’t like its chances.<<
>>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)
SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane
>>No change from last week. UConn’s No. 25 RPI and 7-7 record against the top 50 keep it off the bubble for now, but it must improve its 7-8 record in the American to secure its position. With home series coming up against Wichita State and South Florida, we expect the Huskies to take care of business.
Houston remains on the right side of the bubble even after a series loss at USF, but its footing has certainly gotten more tenuous. The Cougars are just 9-9 in the American and No. 42 in the RPI, with a 5-7 record against the top 50. We still like their chances to finish strong with home series coming up against UNLV and Tulane plus a road set at UCF.
Tulane remains the only other viable postseason contender in the American, but the Green Wave really needed to win their series against East Carolina last weekend, and they did not. At 9-5 in the American and No. 82 in the RPI, Tulane still has an outside chance if it can finish red-hot and boost that RPI 30-plus spots, but we don’t like its chances.<<
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Important win last evening. Gets us to .500 in AAC. Off to some work appointments
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
8 - 8 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 28 -18/ .609 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
8 - 8 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 28 -18/ .609 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
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Just got back from game, unfortunately cant be there for second game of doubleheader. Beautiful day for a baseball game. Pitching was outstanding. Hope that continues and our bats get going.
Big win , in that it gets us over .500 in AAC play. A win to sweep the series would be sweet. Post season Criteria Chart is ALL Green
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 8 / .529 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -18/ .617 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 25 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
Big win , in that it gets us over .500 in AAC play. A win to sweep the series would be sweet. Post season Criteria Chart is ALL Green
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 8 / .529 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -18/ .617 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 25 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
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We did win 3 of 4 this week, which if we did that all year we would be hosting a regional. Also we did get to .500 ( 9-9) in AAC play. I believe if the tourney was announced today we would definitely be selected. So there is a lot to be happy about.
My only concern is that we seem to be teetering on the edge. Every game is so important, and I am hoping we can get the wins needed. Thinking a minimum of 4 -3 over next 7 games, but really hoping for at least 5 -2. If we go 4 - 3, I think we would need a couple of wins in AAC tourney. It would also be nice if we can get a 2 or 3 seed in AAC tourney. That way we avoid ECU until championship game.
Lets win 3 of 4 this week.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 9 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -19/ .604 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 28 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
My only concern is that we seem to be teetering on the edge. Every game is so important, and I am hoping we can get the wins needed. Thinking a minimum of 4 -3 over next 7 games, but really hoping for at least 5 -2. If we go 4 - 3, I think we would need a couple of wins in AAC tourney. It would also be nice if we can get a 2 or 3 seed in AAC tourney. That way we avoid ECU until championship game.
Lets win 3 of 4 this week.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 9 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -19/ .604 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 28 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
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| SCHOOL | CONF | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|
| ECU | 15-2 | 35-11 |
| Tulane | 10-6 | 28-18 |
| Cincinnati | 11-9 | 22-24 |
| Houston | 9-9 | 28-18 |
| UConn | 9-9 | 29-19 |
| UCF | 8-12 | 28-19 |
| Memphis | 6-9 | 22-21 |
| Wichita State | 6-12 | 21-26 |
| USF | 5-11 | 23-21 |
In conference remaining games:
UConn 3 v USF and 3 @ Tulane game (and 1 @ URI OOC)
Tulane 1 v UCF, 3 @ Houston and 3 v UConn
Cincinnati 1 v ECU and 3 @ Memphis
Houston 3 v Tulane and 3 @ UCF
UCF 1 @ Tulane and 3 v Houston
My guess:
7-0 or 6-1 locks is in the tourney. We don’t have the bats or consistency to achieve this (would love to be wrong)
5-2 probably gets us in, but puts us in bubble territory and may require a win or 2 in the conference tourney.
4-3 probably requires us winning 3 in the tourney, and maybe winning the tourney.
Sub .500 and we will need to win the tournament to make the field.
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Baseball America's Projected Field of 64 (5/8/19)
UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Oxford MS w/ host Ole'Miss (#16 seed overall). NC State and Bryant also in Regional.
ECU still hosting in Greenville (#7 seed overall)
Houston as the #3 seed in the Lubbock Texas Regional
UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Oxford MS w/ host Ole'Miss (#16 seed overall). NC State and Bryant also in Regional.
ECU still hosting in Greenville (#7 seed overall)
Houston as the #3 seed in the Lubbock Texas Regional
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D1Baseball College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: May 8
UConn projected as the #2 seed in the Chapel Hill Regional w/ host North Carolina (#12 seed overall). Tennessee and Elon also in the Regional
ECU still hosting in Greenville as the #9 overall see.
Houston is the #3 seed in Oxford MS.
UCF is listed under the "First Five Out"
>>East Carolina is right on the cusp of the top eight and comes in at No. 9 this week. The Pirates continue to dominate the American Athletic Conference and have a strong RPI. It would not be surprising to see ECU enter the top eight at some point soon.<<
Here are how the overall bids breakdown by conference: SEC (10), ACC (9), Pac 12 (5), Big Ten (4), Big 12 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (3) and Big West (2).
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Clearly on a roll...
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From Aaron Fitt:
d1baseball.com
>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)
SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane, UCF
No change from last week. UConn and Houston remain in solid shape with 9-9 conference records and RPIs of No. 26 and No. 37, respectively. If both can finish .500 in the American, they should get in easily, and even 11-13 might be enough, though a losing conference mark would make for a nervous selection Monday. Houston has the more challenging remaining schedule: vs. Tulane, at UCF. The Huskies host South Florida and then travel to Tulane.
The Green Wave is back in second place at 10-7, 5.5 games behind ECU. But Tulane is stuck at No. 94 in the RPI and just 2-7 against the top 50, making its at-large hopes a real long shot. But if it can finish with series wins at Houston and vs. UConn, the RPI should make a big jump, and its case would get very interesting. But we aren’t projecting that to happen.
UCF has quietly snuck closer to the bubble after winning a road series at Tulane and a midweek game at Miami, getting the knights up 14 spots to No. 53 in the RPI. They’re still just 9-12 in the American, but a home series win over Houston the final weekend would give them at least a shot. UCF also gets a good RPI road game midweek at FAU.<
Postseason Stock Report: Week 13 At-Large, National Seed Analysis • D1Baseball
Texas Tech surged into top-eight seed position in our latest field of 64 projection. Aaron Fitt breaks down the races for national seeds and takes a conference-by-conference look at the at-large picture.
d1baseball.com
>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)
SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane, UCF
No change from last week. UConn and Houston remain in solid shape with 9-9 conference records and RPIs of No. 26 and No. 37, respectively. If both can finish .500 in the American, they should get in easily, and even 11-13 might be enough, though a losing conference mark would make for a nervous selection Monday. Houston has the more challenging remaining schedule: vs. Tulane, at UCF. The Huskies host South Florida and then travel to Tulane.
The Green Wave is back in second place at 10-7, 5.5 games behind ECU. But Tulane is stuck at No. 94 in the RPI and just 2-7 against the top 50, making its at-large hopes a real long shot. But if it can finish with series wins at Houston and vs. UConn, the RPI should make a big jump, and its case would get very interesting. But we aren’t projecting that to happen.
UCF has quietly snuck closer to the bubble after winning a road series at Tulane and a midweek game at Miami, getting the knights up 14 spots to No. 53 in the RPI. They’re still just 9-12 in the American, but a home series win over Houston the final weekend would give them at least a shot. UCF also gets a good RPI road game midweek at FAU.<
uconnbaseball
Hey there
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Our second sweep of the year (lol MSU) would make us much less nervous.
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I seem to start each update, by stating " it was a big win". But yesterday I believe truly was a big win. A comeback victory at home keyed by a clutch HR from Prato, and great pitching. Never like doubleheaders, but need at minimum a split. But really hoping for our first AAC weekend sweep.
If we take care of business this weekend, it sets up a huge series with Tulane next weekend. Would love to get a 2 or 3 seed and avoid ECU until possible championship game.
We are tied for 3rd in AAC if you go by loss column with 9 losses. We are 1 of only 2 teams (ECU the other) with a winning % (9-8) vs Q1 teams. So right now we are in good shape. But we need to keep winning.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 9 / .526% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 30-19/ .612 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
If we take care of business this weekend, it sets up a huge series with Tulane next weekend. Would love to get a 2 or 3 seed and avoid ECU until possible championship game.
We are tied for 3rd in AAC if you go by loss column with 9 losses. We are 1 of only 2 teams (ECU the other) with a winning % (9-8) vs Q1 teams. So right now we are in good shape. But we need to keep winning.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 9 / .526% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 30-19/ .612 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 26 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
uconnbaseball
Hey there
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We do not need to win the conference. .500 ball the rest of the way probably gets us in, .600 ball would for sure.
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Is it possible to win a conference we aren't in?
.-.
Wishful thinking I guess.
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Exactly what probably most of us were afraid of. Losing a series to a lower level AAC team at home, that now puts us on the bubble with much work to do. I know the term Must win is overused but need at minimum to take 3 of next 4, and then probably win at least 2 in AAC tourney to have a chance. That gets us to 35 wins, and an At large invitation could go either way.
Also not for certain( depending on other games), but would need to sweep Tulane to have any chance of getting into 2 - 3 seed area in AAC tourney.
Lets get the Rhode Island win and go from there.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 11/ .476% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 30-21/ .588 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 33 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
Also not for certain( depending on other games), but would need to sweep Tulane to have any chance of getting into 2 - 3 seed area in AAC tourney.
Lets get the Rhode Island win and go from there.
Go Huskies
Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 11/ .476% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 30-21/ .588 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record
(2) 33 .... <50- RPI
(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC
CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
UConn's RPI has taken a hit, but it is still in decent shape. However, as you point out, the AAC conference record is not, and that is where the trouble lies. Still, if UConn takes 2 out of 3 at Tulane (it won't be easy) and wins at least 2 games in the AAC conference tournament, then I think the Huskies would be in pretty good shape for an NCAA at large bid.
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AAC Standings heading into the final weekend:
All games Thursday>Saturday
Memphis @ ECU
UConn @ Tulane
Cincinnati done - Final weekend OOC
Houston @ UCF
Wichita @ USF for final spot in Tourney
*Tulane & Memphis had a game cancelled due to weather*
All games Thursday>Saturday
Memphis @ ECU
UConn @ Tulane
Cincinnati done - Final weekend OOC
Houston @ UCF
Wichita @ USF for final spot in Tourney
*Tulane & Memphis had a game cancelled due to weather*
.-.