Wins needed for 2019 NCAA Bid

[HCCForever]

Sorry about your loss ucjoet. I experienced a similar situation a few years back. A twenty-something son of a family that I have known most of my life also overdosed. That is a great waste of an unfinished life.

 

[huskymedic]

Baseball America > 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field of 64 (4/17/19)

UConn projected as the #2 seed in the Athens Georgia Regional.

ECU as the #1 in Greenville and Houston as the #3 in College Station

D1Baseball.com>College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 17 • D1Baseball

UConn as the #2 seed in the Los Angeles Regional (w/ #1 overall UCLA).
ECU as the #1 seed in Greenville and Houston the #3 seed in Atlanta.

Here’s how the overall bids breakdown by conference: SEC (11), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac 12 (6), American (3), Big Ten (3), Big West (2), Conference USA (2).

Lot of baseball still to be played.

 

[uconnbaseball]

D1Baseball.com>College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 17 • D1Baseball

UConn as the #2 seed in the Los Angeles Regional (w/ #1 overall UCLA).
ECU as the #1 seed in Greenville and Houston the #3 seed in Atlanta.

Here’s how the overall bids breakdown by conference: SEC (11), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac 12 (6), American (3), Big Ten (3), Big West (2), Conference USA (2).

Lot of baseball still to be played.

I was looking for a UCLA baseball message board out of boredom yesterday to see what their thoughts were on ECU. I was flabbergasted to see that their only "active" board averaged under 20 posts a thread. Apparently they have had attendance issues as well by PAC-12 standards.

Their team is awesome. I don't understand how difficult it is to support a good baseball team, even in LA.

 

[ucjoet]

First Happy Easter to the Boneyard family.

This past week was very disappointing. Would have been satisfied with a 2-2 week, but really hurt getting swept by a very good ECU team. This puts our hosting chances at almost zero, unless we go on an incredible run. If we figure we have 20 games left (including AAC tourney), we would probably need to go 16-4 and win tourney to have a shot.

According to my chart below, we are on the bubble for an At Large bid. Need to get a little streak going to put us in a more comfortable position.

These next 2 New England games are very big, and would love to win series vs a good Sam Houston State team away.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 1 / .875% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 24 -16/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

First Happy Easter to the Boneyard family.

This past week was very disappointing. Would have been satisfied with a 2-2 week, but really hurt getting swept by a very good ECU team. This puts our hosting chances at almost zero, unless we go on an incredible run. If we figure we have 20 games left (including AAC tourney), we would probably need to go 16-4 and win tourney to have a shot.

According to my chart below, we are on the bubble for an At Large bid. Need to get a little streak going to put us in a more comfortable position.

These next 2 New England games are very big, and would love to win series vs a good Sam Houston State team away.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 1 / .875% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 24 -16/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

I have figured for a while that UConn hosting a regional was going to be a tough go. Also was figuring the team would have a lot of trouble against ECU, and sadly that was proven right. I would say that hosting has pretty much gone by the boards.

As far as getting an NCAA tourney bid, there is good news, and bad news. UConn's RPI is still at 26, which is still in very good shape. Being below .500 in the AAC is not.

My thinking is this. UConn has an out of conference series against Sam Houston State next weekend. This is another pretty good team UConn is playing. The Huskies need to stick to the usual script here, and take 2 out of 3 games. Being a road series, that will keep the RPI in solid shape and add to the NCAA resume,

The key games really start when UConn gets back into AAC play. UConn hosts Wichita State and South Florida the first two weekends of May. This is big. Wichita State and South Florida are both in the bottom third of the league, so it is imperative that at the very least UConn take both these series. That would make for a 4-2 record in these games, it would be a lot better for the Huskies if they go 5-1. UConn simply cannot afford to have a poor series of home games against these teams, the season really does rest on these two series. If UConn does well in these home AAC games, the Huskies will have a built in win buffer in the AAC standings as they close the AAC regular season on the road against Tulane, currently second in the league standings. This will probably be a tough series as well, although I would think East Carolina is as tough as it gets in terms of conference games.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[dbmill]

Also from College Baseball Nation:

 

[whaler11]

I seriously don’t get this. NC State is 24 and UConn is 25 in this metric? These are the only two teams I follow at all so I really don’t get it.

 

[dbmill]

College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 23 • D1Baseball

UConn is projected as the 2 seed in the Morgantown Regional.

ECU as the #1 seed in Greenville and Houston the #3 seed in Lubbock.

 

[huskymedic]

College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 23 • D1Baseball

UConn is projected as the 2 seed in the Morgantown Regional.

ECU as the #1 seed in Greenville and Houston the #3 seed in Lubbock.

That’s not a bad placement...

 

[tayjlaw]

2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field of 64 (4/24/19)

Another #2 seed projection

 

[dbmill]

Aaron Fitt analysis of where things stand for NCAA post season bids.

Postseason Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For National Seeds, Hosts, At-Larges • D1Baseball

He has a bit on the AAC and UConn:

>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)

SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane

No change from last week. Houston has won eight of its last nine games, bookended by two midweek wins over Sam Houston State and highlighted by a midweek win over Texas A&M. Houston is back over .500 in conference at 8-7, but its RPI actually dropped three spots in the last week to No. 38. The RPI, the modest conference record and the 5-7 record against the top 50 keeps the Cougars on the bubble, but they’re trending in the right direction.

Connecticut, meanwhile, is trending the wrong direction, with a home series loss to Cincinnati and a road sweep at the hands of East Carolina in the last three weeks. UConn has fallen below .500 in conference at 7-8, and boosting that record is its biggest priority going forward. The Huskies are still in decent shape overall because of their their No. 24 RPI and 7-7 record against the top 50, but they need to regain some momentum to avoid falling onto the bubble.

Tulane remains the only other viable postseason contender in the American, sitting in second place at 8-3 in the standings. But its No. 89 RPI and 1-5 record against the top 50 still hold it back. If the Green Wave can win a road series at ECU this weekend, they should make a big leap in the RPI, and another road series at Houston presents further opportunity in a few weeks. So the Green Wave has a chance to get that RPI where it needs to be; the RPI Needs Report estimates that Tulane can surge into the top 45 with a 13-3 finish. That won’t be easy, and we’re not counting on it, but it’s within the realm of possibility.<

My thinking is that UConn will be in good shape if it takes care of business in its home games against Wichita State and South Florida, two teams in the bottom third of the AAC standings. Wins against those teams and a decent final weekend against Tulane should put UConn in good shape for an NCAA tourney bid.

 

[ucjoet]

We won a game we needed to win vs a decent Rhode Island team. Again great pitching, but bats can't seem to get going. Important series this weekend vs a good Sam Houston State team away (22-16, RPI - 78). Would be big if we can at least take 2 of 3.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
8 - 1 / .889% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 25 -16/ .610 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 22 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[BaseballDog]

Aaron Fitt analysis of where things stand for NCAA post season bids.

Postseason Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For National Seeds, Hosts, At-Larges • D1Baseball

He has a bit on the AAC and UConn:

>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)

SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane

No change from last week. Houston has won eight of its last nine games, bookended by two midweek wins over Sam Houston State and highlighted by a midweek win over Texas A&M. Houston is back over .500 in conference at 8-7, but its RPI actually dropped three spots in the last week to No. 38. The RPI, the modest conference record and the 5-7 record against the top 50 keeps the Cougars on the bubble, but they’re trending in the right direction.

Connecticut, meanwhile, is trending the wrong direction, with a home series loss to Cincinnati and a road sweep at the hands of East Carolina in the last three weeks. UConn has fallen below .500 in conference at 7-8, and boosting that record is its biggest priority going forward. The Huskies are still in decent shape overall because of their their No. 24 RPI and 7-7 record against the top 50, but they need to regain some momentum to avoid falling onto the bubble.

Tulane remains the only other viable postseason contender in the American, sitting in second place at 8-3 in the standings. But its No. 89 RPI and 1-5 record against the top 50 still hold it back. If the Green Wave can win a road series at ECU this weekend, they should make a big leap in the RPI, and another road series at Houston presents further opportunity in a few weeks. So the Green Wave has a chance to get that RPI where it needs to be; the RPI Needs Report estimates that Tulane can surge into the top 45 with a 13-3 finish. That won’t be easy, and we’re not counting on it, but it’s within the realm of possibility.<

My thinking is that UConn will be in good shape if it takes care of business in its home games against Wichita State and South Florida, two teams in the bottom third of the AAC standings. Wins against those teams and a decent final weekend against Tulane should put UConn in good shape for an NCAA tourney bid.

We will not make the tournament if or record in the AAC is below .500. There have been enough documented cases of the committee leaving otherwise deserving teams out of tournament who do not finish with at least a .500 record in conference ( see North Carolina in 2016, South Carolina in 2017, Kentucky in 2018 ).

 

[dbmill]

We will not make the tournament if or record in the AAC is below .500. There have been enough documented cases of the committee leaving otherwise deserving teams out of tournament who do not finish with at least a .500 record in conference ( see North Carolina in 2016, South Carolina in 2017, Kentucky in 2018 ).

Which is why I say that UConn needs to generate enough wins in their home games against Wichita State and South Florida. Together with a win or two on the road in the final weekend against Tulane, that would put UConn at or over .500 in the AAC. But the big key is those home games against the AAC teams.

 

[ucjoet]

As someone else mentioned in another thread, yesterday was a must win game. Saying that it seems like every game is a must win. Today would be huge, and get a little momentum going into final 3 AAC weekend series.

In regards to Chart goals below, a win today would get us to our goal of 5 - 4 vs Top 55 RPI (out of conf) games. We have reached our goal vs Over 55 RPI category, and only need to split our 2 New England games to reach that goal.

We do have some work to do to reach our AAC Reg season goal. Need to go 7 - 2 in AAC play rest of way.

Lets get a win today.

Go Huskies




Current record.. season goal
4 - 4 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
8 - 1 / .889% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 26 -17/ .605 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

As someone else mentioned in another thread, yesterday was a must win game. Saying that it seems like every game is a must win. Today would be huge, and get a little momentum going into final 3 AAC weekend series.

In regards to Chart goals below, a win today would get us to our goal of 5 - 4 vs Top 55 RPI (out of conf) games. We have reached our goal vs Over 55 RPI category, and only need to split our 2 New England games to reach that goal.

We do have some work to do to reach our AAC Reg season goal. Need to go 7 - 2 in AAC play rest of way.

Lets get a win today.

Go Huskies




Current record.. season goal
4 - 4 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
8 - 1 / .889% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 26 -17/ .605 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

With UConn's RPI in good shape, I don't buy into this game being a must win game, other than the goal every weekend is to win 2 out of 3 to take a series. Still, winning is much better for the NCAA bid resume in the end, and is better for both team and fan morale. Also, beating a good Sam Houston State club is another good post season marker.

The next three weekends are another matter. Over the next two weekends at home UConn needs to go at least 4-2 (better that it be 5-1) against teams that are in the bottom half of the league. UConn needs to be at least .500 in the AAC standings come the end of the season, plus losing these games at home would do serious damage to UConn's RPI, which at this point is the Huskies main calling point in receiving an NCAA tourney bid.

 

[ucjoet]

With UConn's RPI in good shape, I don't buy into this game being a must win game, other than the goal every weekend is to win 2 out of 3 to take a series. Still, winning is much better for the NCAA bid resume in the end, and is better for both team and fan morale. Also, beating a good Sam Houston State club is another good post season marker.

The next three weekends are another matter. Over the next two weekends at home UConn needs to go at least 4-2 (better that it be 5-1) against teams that are in the bottom half of the league. UConn needs to be at least .500 in the AAC standings come the end of the season, plus losing these games at home would do serious damage to UConn's RPI, which at this point is the Huskies main calling point in receiving an NCAA tourney bid.

I do agree that stating that yesterday was a must win may have been a bit exaggerated. My thoughts on it being a must game was that if we did lose that game, we would be in danger of getting swept 2 weekends in a row. We do have a great RPI, but we need to win games ( obvious statement). We do need to win next 2 AAC series and get over .500. Lets get a win today and keep momentum going.
Go Huskies

 

[ucjoet]

Heart breaking loss today. We have now lost 5 of last 7. Need to turn this around this week. Cant afford to lose any more weekend series, and definitely need to get above .500 in AAC play.

Lot of RED below. Our RPI is still excellent at 25, but need to get on a little win streak.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
8 - 1 / .889% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 26 -18/ .591 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 25 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Heart breaking loss today. We have now lost 5 of last 7. Need to turn this around this week. Cant afford to lose any more weekend series, and definitely need to get above .500 in AAC play.

Lot of RED below. Our RPI is still excellent at 25, but need to get on a little win streak.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
8 - 1 / .889% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 26 -18/ .591 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 25 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

The next two weeks will show us if UConn might have an NCAA at large bid in them. 7 home games are coming up, one against Central, and 3 each on the weekends against Wichita State and South Florida, the two teams that are at the bottom of the AAC standings. Need to win 5 or 6 games in this stretch at a bare minimum. That would get UConn over .500 in the AAC and solve that problem. If they don't win these games, losing these games at home will kill their RPI.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[ucjoet]

Did what we needed to do today, and got some work in for pitchers we may need the rest of year. This weekend is huge. Need at minimum 2 wins this weekend vs Wichita State at home. Hoping for a great crowd in Hartford. I will be there Friday and Saturday.

Our winning % is at .600 (not bad) and our RPI is at 26 ( very good). ECU and us are the only AAC teams with .500 or better % vs the Q1. We just need to do well in these last 9 AAC games. Lets hope they can make a nice end of season push.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
7 - 8 / .467 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 27 -18/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

Baseball America: 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field of 64 (5/1/19)

UConn is projected a #3 seed in the Raleigh NC Regional (w/ host UNC (#15 overall seed).

ECU hosting in Greenville (#8 overall)
Houston #3 seed in Corvallis.

>>Another conference to watch is the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina is running away with the title and projects as a top-eight seed. But the rest of the league’s chances are muddled. Cincinnati and Tulane are tied for second place, but neither ranks in the top 75 in RPI, making the path to an at-large bid onerous. Connecticut has a top-30 RPI but still needs to improve its 7-8 conference record and has lost back-to-back series. Houston has a top-45 RPI but is 9-9 in league action after losing a series at last-place South Florida. The American will be a multi-bid league, but other than ECU, its members are not making the committee’s job easy.<<

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball: College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: May 1

UConn is projected by D1Baseball as the #2 seed in the Miami Regional (w/ host University of Miami as the #15 overall seed).

ECU hosting in Greenville as the #9 overall seed.
Houston is projected as the #3 seed in Lubbock Texas

Last Five In: Houston, Indiana State, Florida, Clemson, Iowa
First Five Out: Illinois State, BYU, Texas, Washington, Oregon

Overall bids break down by conference: SEC (11), ACC (8), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (5), Pac 12 (5), American (3) and Big West (2).