Wins needed for 2019 NCAA Bid

[ucjoet]

Always have a tough time posting after a loss, so did not update chart after disappointing loss to Virginia. Only if we could have put our foot on their throats with bases loaded no outs and up 3-0. But that is baseball.

Nice victory last night. GREAT pitching from Feole. This is a big boost. Bats need to get out again. Need to get at least i of next 2.

All green below ( Post season criteria), even though still very early.

Go Huskies




Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
1 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
1 - 0 / 1.000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 12 -7 / .632 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 20 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 1st .......Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

The AAC currently has 6 teams in the top 100 in RPI, with another two (Wichita State and Memphis) in the 100's. It doesn't look inconceivable that Wichita State could enter the top 100 as well. Looks like Cincinnati is the only really hopeless team in the league, clocking in at 245 and with a bad 6-14 record.

American Athletic Conference Standings 2019 College Baseball - WarrenNolan.com

 

[ucjoet]

Was thinking last night as I was following everyone's game updates (thank you), what a weird game baseball is. If you win 60% of Major league baseball games, you would win approximately 96 games. That would be considered a very good year for almost any team. In college baseball if you win 60% of your games ( assuming play 60) , you would win 36 games. That would place you in decent position for an NCAA at-large bid.

Put it always feels like we are not playing well, when we lose 4 of 10 games. So far we have won exactly 60% of our games, and our Chart below is mostly green. A win today would be a good way to end the week, and get 2 of 3 road conference games vs a team we have had trouble with.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
1 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
1 - 1 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 12 -8 / .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 3rd ..Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Was thinking last night as I was following everyone's game updates (thank you), what a weird game baseball is. If you win 60% of Major league baseball games, you would win approximately 96 games. That would be considered a very good year for almost any team. In college baseball if you win 60% of your games ( assuming play 60) , you would win 36 games. That would place you in decent position for an NCAA at-large bid.

Put it always feels like we are not playing well, when we lose 4 of 10 games. So far we have won exactly 60% of our games, and our Chart below is mostly green. A win today would be a good way to end the week, and get 2 of 3 road conference games vs a team we have had trouble with.

Go Huskies

Excellent post! This is a point that I have been trying to make here all this time. Baseball is the one college sport where you can lose this often and would still be considered a quality team likely to make the NCAA tournament.

 

[ucjoet]

Big win today to win our first AAC weekend. Very happy with teams progress, especially since every game has been away from home. Want to single out 3 players. (1)Jimmy Wang who seems to have an early lock as our Sunday starter. Very good performance today. ( 2) Caleb Wurster (Uconnbaseball's main man), who has done an unbelievable job so far. We have a very good bullpen with him , CJ and Jake. Starters get us 5-6 innings and I am feeling confident. (3) Mike Woodworth has been exceptional. Surprised me last year on how well he played, moves to a different position and is playing better. Love him

Post season criteria chart ALL green.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
1 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 1 / .667 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 13 -8 / .619 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 2nd ..Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

 

[ucjoet]

We did what we needed to do today. Got an easy victory over a team we should have beaten. Again these games are not as much about how the win helps, but how bad the loss would have been. Good job by Kenny Haus. Pitching 5 innings with just 1 earned run. Also got some gameday experience for some players.

Tomorrow we have a 12-11 ( rpi 81) Boston College team. Always nice to get wins over any BC team.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
2 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 1 / .667 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 14 -8 / .636 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 2nd ..Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

We did what we needed to do today. Got an easy victory over a team we should have beaten. Again these games are not as much about how the win helps, but how bad the loss would have been. Good job by Kenny Haus. Pitching 5 innings with just 1 earned run. Also got some gameday experience for some players.

For me, these midweek games are also for getting some little used pitchers some game work. It's something that I always look forward to. It's always possible that these guys may emerge later in the season and throw some more important innings at some point.

 

[ucjoet]

Nice win this afternoon vs arguably our toughest Northeast team. Great pitching effort all around. Really like the depth of our pitching staff. Would love to get 2 of 3 this weekend in another away AAC series.

Love anytime we beat BC ( in anything). Post season criteria chart ALL green.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 1 / .667 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 15 -8 / .652 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 18 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 2nd ..Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

UConn as a #2 seed in the Raleigh NC Regional w/ NC State as the #1. East Carolina is a #1 seed in Greenville NC and Houston is a projected #3 seed in the Austin Regional.

UCF is in the “next four out” category.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

UConn as a #2 seed in the Raleigh NC Regional w/ NC State as the #1. East Carolina is a #1 seed in Greenville NC and Houston is a projected #3 seed in the Austin Regional.

UCF is in the “next four out” category.

That would be nice as I could take a road trip to see some of my wife's family in the RTP area and fit in a few games.

 

[Guapo]

Nice win this afternoon vs arguably our toughest Northeast team. Great pitching effort all around. Really like the depth of our pitching staff. Would love to get 2 of 3 this weekend in another away AAC series.

Love anytime we beat BC ( in anything). Post season criteria chart ALL green.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 1 / .667 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 15 -8 / .652 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 18 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 2nd ..Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

New England’s Team* lololol

 

[uconnbaseball]

Eh, BC might well be the 2nd best team in the Northeast next to us. Penn State is a total fraud and St. John's cannot hit. Pitt is dreadful as always. It's between them, NE, and URI.

Morrissette and their Sunday pitcher are impressive freshman. We didn't recruit Morrissette hard, which could turn out to be a mistake (or maybe he'll just transfer here ala Gazzo!)

 

[dbmill]

Eh, BC might well be the 2nd best team in the Northeast next to us. Penn State is a total fraud and St. John's cannot hit. Pitt is dreadful as always. It's between them, NE, and URI.

Morrissette and their Sunday pitcher are impressive freshman. We didn't recruit Morrissette hard, which could turn out to be a mistake (or maybe he'll just transfer here ala Gazzo!)

For best team in New England, after UConn one of the most consistently good teams is Bryant.

 

[uconnbaseball]

For best team in New England, after UConn one of the most consistently good teams is Bryant.

Ah yea, I forgot about them. You are right, they were even a 2 seed somewhere a few years back.

 

[ucjoet]

Tough not to take advantage of Feole's pitching performance, but we ran into a buzz saw last night. Would like to see more patience at plate, not just because of last night but overall. Get the pitch count up and we get into teams bullpens. Don't think many teams have as deep of a bullpen then we have. Lets get one back today.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 2 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 15 -9 / .625 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Tough not to take advantage of Feole's pitching performance, but we ran into a buzz saw last night. Would like to see more patience at plate, not just because of last night but overall. Get the pitch count up and we get into teams bullpens. Don't think many teams have as deep of a bullpen then we have. Lets get one back today.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
2 - 2 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 15 -9 / .625 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 23 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

You want to get into the opposition bullpen, and all everyone can talk about is pitch count. The first 4 players in the batting order are doing fine, they are hitting and getting on base. However, to really accomplish driving up the pitch count, what is needed is for the back half of the batting order to produce something other than sub Mendoza line like numbers and abysmal on base percentages. That has been the real drag to the Husky offense.

 

[ucjoet]

Crazy busy weekend with my brother /sister in law anniversary last night and my wife's birthday today. So thanks for everyone who has posted and will post today. You guys are the backbone of the Baseball board.

Another great pitching effort, by all pitchers yesterday. Be nice if our bats can get going, because if they do we can be extremely dangerous team. A win today would get us another away AAC series win. Post season criteria ALL in green. Lets get another win today.

Go Huskies





Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
3 - 2 / .600 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 16 -9 / .640 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 18 .... <50- RPI

(3) Tied 3rd ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Offense comes alive today with a 10 - 0 victory. I believe we had a season high of 16 hits, and the bottom of order contributed greatly. Our pitching has been OUTSTANDING. Gave up 3 runs all weekend. WOW. We have a deep and strong pitching staff. Looks like Jimmy Wang has a solid hold as our Sunday starter.

After a 4 -5 start. We are 13 - 4 over our last 17 games. That is a winning % of .765. If we continue at that pace, we would win 26 more games ( assuming we play 60 games). That would give us 43 wins, and in my opinion we would be hosting a regional.

Lets take care of business in our New England games vs Fairfield and Umass- Lowell. Then have a great showing at The Dunk vs Cinci.

Post Season Chart criteria solidly ALL Green.

Go Huskies

Current record.. season goal
3 - 3 / .500% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI
3 - 0 / 1.000% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
4 - 2 / .667 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 17 -9 / .654 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 13 .... <50- RPI

(3) 2nd ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskypantz]

So your post begs the question- what would the criteria be for hosting a regional? By my quick estimate, we need at least 42 wins, 2nd or higher in the AAC and top 20 RPI to be a candidate for a 1 or high 2. I would imagine that 2nd in the AAC is helped if ECU was 1 and top 10. We know we don’t need to be a 1 seed to host but it sure as heck helps. There’s a lot of ball left to be played but man it would be sweet to be hosting in CT.

 

[ucjoet]

Great question. I was going to wait till after our next 5 games, and then post a regional hosting criteria chart. Reason for waiting is that I did not want to Jinx the team, by getting ahead of myself.

Totally agree with your assumptions. Thinking we need 40 -42 wins to be considered. We may get a break being a northern team. But 40 would be bare minimum. Top 2 in AAC regular season, and getting to AAC championship game would also probably be needed.

As I always say, my criteria obviously does not gaurantee anything. But I believe puts in a good position.

Hoping for at least 4 of 5 wins this week. I know not easy to do. But if we do, I will then get a Hosting criteria chart going.

Again great question

 

[ucjoet]

Did a little research on what we may need to Host a Regional. The last 5 teams ( ranked12 -16) that hosted last year had the average record of 42.8 - 18.6. This is almost exactly a .700 winning %. Their average RPI was 19. The only non-southern team of last 5 host teams was Minnesota with an RPI of 12 and record of 43-15.

I still believe we may get a benefit from being a Northeast team, so I am thinking we need 41 wins and an RPI of less then 25 to be strongly considered.

I will wait till after the next 5 games to post a Host Criteria Chart. Hoping we win our 2 New England games and take at least 2 of 3 from Cinci.

Go Huskies

 

[businesslawyer]

Did a little research on what we may need to Host a Regional. The last 5 teams ( ranked12 -16) that hosted last year had the average record of 42.8 - 18.6. This is almost exactly a .700 winning %. Their average RPI was 19. The only non-southern team of last 5 host teams was Minnesota with an RPI of 12 and record of 43-15.

I still believe we may get a benefit from being a Northeast team, so I am thinking we need 41 wins and an RPI of less then 25 to be strongly considered.

I will wait till after the next 5 games to post a Host Criteria Chart. Hoping we win our 2 New England games and take at least 2 of 3 from Cinci.

Go Huskies

Thank you in advance. Given what we've seen of this team, the goal of making the tournament is not a high enough goal. We need to be focused on winning the conference and then hosting in the NCAA. And both require sweeping Cincy this weekend.

 

[scotty0330]

Agreed sweep is likely necessary to keep host goal realistic and to keep pace with ECU who has not lost a conference game yet and is two up in the loss column. Just really don't want to see this team overlook the week day games and have an ugly loss after the way they finished up in Orlando.

 

[businesslawyer]

Agreed sweep is likely necessary to keep host goal realistic and to keep pace with ECU who has not lost a conference game yet and is two up in the loss column. Just really don't want to see this team overlook the week day games and have an ugly loss after the way they finished up in Orlando.

The depth in starting pitching makes it much less likely to drop any particular weekday game than in recent years. But for the most part the competition is so bad they really need to win almost all if not all of them.