Wins needed for 2019 NCAA Bid

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From Kendall Rogers:


>Connecticut: Having seen the Huskies earlier this season, there’s zero doubt they’ll rank well with the Regional Advisory Committee. However, they have a league record issue at this point. UConn lost a series to South Florida this past weekend and is down to 32 in the RPI with a 10-11 league record. Let’s say the Huskies lose the Tulane series on the road and drop to 11-13 in the American, the nation’s No. 5 RPI conference. They’d probably need to win a few games in the conference tournament to assure postseason bid.<
 
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Nice, much needed win yesterday. We ended up taking care of business this year in New England games going 10 - 1. We are 21-10 (.678) vs Non AAC teams. This is exactly what chart below projected. Unfortunately our AAC record is not what we had hoped.

Getting 2 of 3 this weekend , would be a huge first step in getting an at large bid.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

10 - 11/ .476% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 31-21/ .596 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 31 .... <50- RPI

(3) 5th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
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Baseball America has UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Fayetteville Arkansas Regional. Host Arkansas is the overall #3 seed. Other teams in the Regional are Creighton (#2) and Nebraska-Omaha (#4).

ECU is still hosting and now listed as the #6 overall seed in the Tournament.

Houston is projected as the #3 seed in the Baton Rouge Regional.

Last Four In:
Connecticut
Tennessee
Clemson
Virginia

First Four Out:
San Diego State
Wake Forest
Arizona
Oklahoma

Next Four Out:
Washington
Iowa
Louisiana Tech
Gonzaga
 
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D1Baseball has UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Coral Gable Regional w/ host University of Miami (#13 overall seed). FAU (#2) and Wright State (#4) are the other two teams.

ECU is hosting as the overall 9th National seed in the Tourney.

Houston is projected as the #3 seed in Stillwater Oklahoma.

LAST FIVE IN: Tennessee, Florida State, UC Irvine, Virginia, Clemson

FIRST FIVE OUT: Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Washington, Louisiana Tech, UCF

Breakdown by conference: SEC (10), ACC (9), Pac 12 (5), Big 12 (4), Big Ten (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (3), Conference USA (2) and Big West (2).
 
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More NCAA tourney bid analysis from Aaron Fitt:


>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)

SAFELY IN: East Carolina
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): UCF

No change from last week. UConn and Houston remain on the right side of the bubble with RPIs in the 30s (No. 31 and No. 39, respectively), but the Huskies put themselves on somewhat shaky ground with a home series loss to USF, leaving them 10-11 in the American with one series left on the road at Tulane. Winning that series would put UConn in the field easily at 12-12 in the American, with a solid 9-9 record against the top 50 and a good RPI. Losing it could make things interesting, especially since UConn is down in fifth place in the conference. Should UConn lose two of three at Tulane to finish 11-13 in the American, it might need a win or two in the conference tournament to solidify its position. Houston also finishes with a tricky road series, at UCF. The Cougars are at least above .500 in the league right now at 11-10, and we think they’ll be safe if they win at least one game in Orlando to get to 12-12. And we expect that to happen. Should Houston get swept, it could be in trouble.

The Knights vaulted 14 spots to No. 43 in the RPI over the last week, despite playing just two games (big midweek road wins at Miami and FAU). That RPI puts UCF back in the at-large hunt, but its final series vs. Houston is must-win. If the Knights can take two of three at home to get to 11-13 in the American, they’ll have a shot at an at-large, especially with a win or two in the conference tournament. Sweeping the series would probably put them solidly in. Right now, UCF is one of our first five teams out of the field, but they control their own destiny.<
 
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From Eric Sorenson of D1 Baseball:


>The AAC craziness is real.
The American Athletic Conference could be anywhere from a one-bid to five-bid league. Just looking at some of the teams that could be on the bubble in the American Athletic Conference shows teams like fourth-place Houston, fifth-place UConn and even seventh-place UCF all within ear-shot of an NCAA at-large bid. But they are all sitting behind second-place Cincinnati (No. 103 RPI) and third-place Tulane (No. 90 RPI), which makes all of them a risk of falling into the bottom half of the conference standings. I’m keeping a keen eye on all three of them this weekend to see who ends the regular season with their head above water. Lots of at-large ramifications between Houston-UCF and UConn-Tulane this weekend.<


>– CONNECTICUT (31-21, No. 30RPI)
Pluses:
Great opening weekend where they beat Louisville two of three. They also own series wins over the two other big bubble teams in the AAC vs. Houston and UCF, along with a tough road weekend at Texas State. As usual a large modicum of their wins have been on the road, getting 22 of them away from Storrs. The non-conference strength of schedule is better than most years at No. 25.

Minuses:
It’s UConn, like it or not the Huskies are used to getting some shabby treatment in the past from the selection committee. A losing record in AAC play is a no-no, and right now the Huskies are 10-11. The Huskies have gone just 6-8 since Tax Day. The selection committee only has one empathetic ear to a New England program in Northeast Conference commissioner Benjamin Shove.

What they must do:
By all means, beat Tulane at least twice this coming weekend, otherwise all this might be a moot point. Short of winning the AAC Tournament of course, winning a couple games or going to the title game might be a requisite. <
 
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Got the win yesterday. Because of superstition, am not going to elaborate on this weekends games. It seems every-time I elaborate we end up with bad results.

Go Huskies

Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

11 - 11/ .500% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 32-21/ .604 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 29 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC



CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
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It worked yesterday. So don't want to jinx anything.

Got the win yesterday. Because of superstition, am not going to elaborate on today's game. It seems every-time I elaborate we end up with bad results.

Go Huskies

Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

12 - 11/ .522% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 33-21/ .611 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 25 .... <50- RPI

(3) 3rd ....Top 4 AAC



CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 

Alum86

Did they burn down the ROTC Hangar?
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I am a casual fan. To the diehards: Regardless the AAC tourney, is this team in the NCAA Tourney? Seems they may have to make waves in the AAC?
 
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I am a casual fan. To the diehards: Regardless the AAC tourney, is this team in the NCAA Tourney? Seems they may have to make waves in the AAC?
This are some thoughts/projections above from the past few days by the National college baseball writers.
 
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We accomplished what we needed to do this past week. Went 3 - 1, beating URI and taking 2 of 3 from Tulane. The Tulane series win was very important getting us to .500 in conference play. Most projections have us making the tourney, and we probably will even if we don't win a game in AAC tourney.

But with that being said, I really am hoping we win at minimum 1 game. The chart below has us as a bubble team. But I think because of our very strong RPI, I think that out weighs our overall record.

Unless crazy things happen in conference tourneys, I think we are in. But lets make it easy on us and do some winning this week. Don't want to give committee any reasons to possibly keep us out.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

12 - 12/ .500% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 33-22/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 28 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC



CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
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We accomplished what we needed to do this past week. Went 3 - 1, beating URI and taking 2 of 3 from Tulane. The Tulane series win was very important getting us to .500 in conference play. Most projections have us making the tourney, and we probably will even if we don't win a game in AAC tourney.

But with that being said, I really am hoping we win at minimum 1 game. The chart below has us as a bubble team. But I think because of our very strong RPI, I think that out weighs our overall record.

Unless crazy things happen in conference tourneys, I think we are in. But lets make it easy on us and do some winning this week. Don't want to give committee any reasons to possibly keep us out.

Go Huskies



Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

12 - 12/ .500% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 33-22/ .600 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 28 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC



CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
You would think that with East Carolina and Houston in UConn's side of the bracket, UConn's RPI should not take a big hit from any losses that might befall the Huskies in the tournament. Rather, there is a chance to add more quality wins to UConn's NCAA tourney resume.
 
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Well, the committee historically LOVES (sarcasm) UConn, as they’ve proven in past years. I think we need to win at least 1 tourney game to get over the hump. A win over Houston or Wichita State should be manageable. If we go out with 2 straight losses, I think we are out.
 
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From all projections, many unforseen events have to happen in tourney games for us not to be selected. Also as Dbmill stated our RPI should be fine even if we lose 2.
But with that being said, I would love to get a minimum of 1 game to rest a little easier.
Go Huskies
 
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A loss to Wichita would definitely bump us into the 30's if we managed to do that.
If UConn is still in the tournament on Saturday, that will mean the Huskies will have two wins at that point in the AAC tourney. That should absolutely clinch an NCAA tourney bid right there for the Huskies. If UConn were to face Wichita State on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, UConn would have either Feole or Kersten on the mound starting the game against them. I would like our chances against the Shockers with either of those two starting those games.

The Tuesday game is interesting. We'll presumeably have Jimmy Wang starting, but then UConn will have a full complement of Wurster, Dandeneau, and Wallace to use at some point after that. If UConn happens to win that game, then the bullpen would get a rest day before playing again on Thursday.
 
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>>American Athletic Conference (4 total bids)

SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut, Houston

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): UCF
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): None

One change from last week: UCF enters our field of 64, making the American a four-bid league. The Knights are the last team in our field of 64, making their position very precarious, but winning their final series against Houston this past weekend gave them a real shot if they can win some games in the conference tournament. UCF are No. 44 in the RPI and 11-13 in the conference, with an 8-9 record against the top 50. Those are all borderline metrics, but it’s a soft bubble, so right now they’re enough to get the Knights in, as long as there are no “stolen bids”. But realistically, there are always at least a couple stolen bids, so UCF needs to make some noise this week to improve its chances.

UConn and Houston move back to the “safely in” category mostly because the bubble is so soft that neither team is really in danger. UConn, in particular, did what it needed to do by winning its final series on the road at Tulane to finish 12-12 in the American, with a No. 28 RPI and a 9-9 top 50 record. That’s a slam-dunk at-large resumé, and probably a 2-seed resumé. Houston has an identical conference record but is in worse RPI shape at No. 40, with a losing record against the top 50 (8-10). Still, we don’t think the Cougars are close to the bubble, especially if they win at least a game in the conference tournament.<<
 
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UConn projected as the #2 seed in the Athens Georgia Regional w/ host Georgia (#4 overall seed), Florida State (#3) and Florida A&M (#4).

ECU hosting one Greenville as the #9 overall national seed.

Houston as the #3 in the Los Angeles Regional.

UCF as the #3 in the Raleigh NC Regional.

LAST FIVE IN: 60. Florida, 61. Missouri, 62. Michigan, 63. Virginia, 64. UCF

FIRST FIVE OUT: 65. Oklahoma, 66. UC Irvine, 67. Southern Miss, 68. Louisiana Tech, 69. Arizona
 
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Listening at work today, great win that I believe puts us in the NCAA tourney. Also ECU loses, WOW what a day. Would love to make a solid run in AAC and get a #2 seed.

Go Huskies

Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
10 - 1 / .909% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games

12 - 12/ .500% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
1 - 0 / 1.000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 34-22/ .607 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 25 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC



CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 

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