What is the end game in a P2 world?

[billybud]

New Report Says NCAA Could Dissolve, Top Teams Could Partner With NFL

For all its problems, over the past two decades the NFL has become the dominant force in the U.S. sporting landscape.

www.outkick.com

 

[Fishy]

The NCAA is a monstrously expensive operation.

If you think that the power conferences are not keenly aware of how much money the NCAA absorbs off the top, I cannot help you. They’ve just about tapped out television money, they’re about to fight over CFP money and when they’re done tapping everything else, they will come for the NCAA.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

New Report Says NCAA Could Dissolve, Top Teams Could Partner With NFL

For all its problems, over the past two decades the NFL has become the dominant force in the U.S. sporting landscape.

www.outkick.com

That is some of the silliest wishcasting I have ever seen. When the NFL comes for college football, it will end very, very badly for college football.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My gut tells me that college athletics and probably football in particular is in the process of screwing itself. The money being bantered around for the P2 and the recent introduction of NIL and the transfer portal will drive a professional sports model. There will be little player allegiance to schools. They will migrate to where they can get the most money. That's not the idea that most consumers have of college athletics. In all of this change and conference realignment, college athletic departments and the media may very well have ignored what was important to the viewer.

I've stated this before. I have a limited amount of time to dedicate to watching football. The time I do spend is heavily weighted to the college game. If it looks a lot like a professional franchise, why wouldn't I watch the best players in the world on Sundays instead? I don't think I'm alone in that assessment.

I agree. I will add that there is no scenario where the NFL and NBA stand by and let Michigan and Alabama and USC become direct competitors.

 

[Waquoit]

If you think that the power conferences are not keenly aware of how much money the NCAA absorbs off the top, I cannot help you. They’ve just about tapped out television money, they’re about to fight over CFP money and when they’re done tapping everything else, they will come for the NCAA.

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

 

[uconndogs]

The NCAA is a monstrously expensive operation.

If you think that the power conferences are not keenly aware of how much money the NCAA absorbs off the top, I cannot help you. They’ve just about tapped out television money, they’re about to fight over CFP money and when they’re done tapping everything else, they will come for the NCAA.

I have no idea what the NCAA’s operating structure looks like. But assuming it’s that bloated at the expense of the P2 in particular, then I suspect the P2 are mapping out a plan to flip the NCAA the bird. At that point it’s unfettered, Wild West professional sports. It will be gross!

 

[Fishy]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

I have no idea what the NCAA’s operating structure looks like. But assuming it’s that bloated at the expense of the P2 in particular, then I suspect the P2 are mapping out a plan to flip the NCAA the bird. At that point it’s unfettered, Wild West professional sports. It will be gross!

So figure the NCAA takes in a billion dollars.

$600M is distributed to D1 schools - $400M is not. About $150M goes to hosting championships and about $8M goes to D2 and D3. There’s miscellaneous student aid in there and then overhead.

It’s a really big piece of pie.

 

[ZooCougar]

I agree. I will add that there is no scenario where the NFL and NBA stand by and let Michigan and Alabama and USC become direct competitors.

The NFL won’t do anything to college football. The NFL wants to see the status quo because that is what is most productive. College is their low cost talent pipeline, like military is for the Airline industry.

 

[Patman]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

Either that or build a giant jenga tower

 

[Patman]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.



So figure the NCAA takes in a billion dollars.

$600M is distributed to D1 schools - $400M is not. About $150M goes to hosting championships and about $8M goes to D2 and D3. There’s miscellaneous student aid in there and then overhead.

It’s a really big piece of pie.

I think this is happening sooner than later. The proposed 16 team tournament fox is putting together is absolutely the type of trial balloon that will be the start of the end. I have a hard time believing those conferences aren't behind that but if not it's in their combined interest. Boats moving in the same direction and all that. The ncaa is the middleman to thrse schools. Just a matter of time before they get cut out. It's become clear

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The NFL won’t do anything to college football. The NFL wants to see the status quo because that is what is most productive. College is their low cost talent pipeline, like military is for the Airline industry.

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

 

[Travelman6]

End game? More and more money and power consolidated into fewer and fewer hands. A microcosm of the world I suppose.

 

[Kolumbo]

Football power team number have not changed . The number of teams and regions represented is more important than a conference .
In 2010 your hard 6 power conferences
Now you have 4
Losers
UConn
USF
OSU
WSU
Winners
Houston
TCU
UCF
SMU

I’m not counting BYU a
So whether it’s 6 or 4 it’s really unchanged except geographically
If you’re looking for a commonality it could be simply the markets served by those loser schools was already saturated . And that the destruction of the SW conference by ESPN and UT was a mistake .

I'll lump cincy and l-ville in with the winners. they were in C-USA with TCU, memphis, houston, uab before joining the big east.

 

[The Yakk]

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

That's true. The airline industry is just mean and nasty to its customers.

 

[ZooCougar]

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

The military provides trained pilots to the airline industry. And at no cost to the industry.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The military provides trained pilots to the airline industry. And at no cost to the industry.

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

 

[ZooCougar]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

The NFL is very worried about realignment and consolidation. They think it might dilute or decrease in the size of the talent pool if it becomes more exclusive.

Most college programs don’t make many. If there is a cost to the NFL or NBA then the benefits far outweigh whatever they may be.

Also you forgot to take your crazy pills again.

 

[Patman]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

How much money does the NFL and NBA spend on college sports?

 

[Dizzy21]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

Most schools do not make a profit on sports as is, imagine if they had to pay the players. And even then, not being associated with the University would kill crowds and rivalries in a minor league. NFL and NBA would lose money by starting leagues in place of college, so there is a revenue cost for sure, but at far as income, they are saving money.

 

[Chuck]

Too much in here for me to fully digest. Sorry if I’m being redundant.

I still think there is dance that goes on between the NFL, NCAA and NBA. That dance changed with the payment to players. Previously, the NBA and NFL knew that they could pick off the best players whenever they were ready. While they still can, I would think they are watching carefully.

Should the power college teams continue to contract, I can see them morphing even more into a competitive professional league. Players are going to be considered employees some time soon. There are too many quality players for there to really be a P2. Nelson is right that they can’t have 40 person basketball teams and 300 person football teams. Players just wouldn’t do that knowing that they’ll never play and therefore, never go “real pro”. But what if the P2 treats the G(everyone else) as THEIR minor leagues. Transferring to a P2 can be done at any time, and you get 5 years to play 4 AT the P2 level. Heck, maybe they even drop playing eligibility altogether. Wanna play at Alabama until you’re 28? Go for it.

Another thing that could impact all of this is youth participation in football. Tackle football participation is declining. Couple that with a declining youth population, and maybe what I said above isn’t as true. Maybe there will need to be contraction because of a smaller talent pool. I can say, from first hand knowledge, that football is dying in my upper middle class town. The old timers still go to the game, and they complain about the team struggling against blue collar towns that still have better participation. But it’s not just the numbers. Between soccer and lacrosse, the best athletes are staying away from football. We still have a team, but the kids would never make it onto the soccer or lacrosse field.

 

[Patman]

This is why the first encroachment on the pros will be longer college careers. Gosh the players have such trouble graduating. Let's give them 5 years. As long as the money is there who is going to care.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think college sports has maybe 10 years left as a major entertainment revenue producer. there are 6 risks that I come up with off the top of my head:

1) There is no way the NBA and NFL will allow it to compete directly with them. They will crush college sports. This is the big one.

2) NIL and the Transfer Portal are getting really unstable and there is no path to regulate either.

3) Legalized gambling and college sports are a very bad combination. There is going to be a major game fixing incident in the next few years.

4) Fewer kids are going to college. This is a big development and will impact people's interest in intercollegiate athletics.

5) The cable bundle could fail very soon, and when it does, the major revenue source for college sports will evaporate. None of these leagues have laid the groundwork for a subscription service.

6) If the SEC and Big 10 really become a P2, fan interest in college sports will evaporate. There is a tipping point of declining fan interest in a situation like this that would feed on itself.

If two of those things develop into problems for college sports, it is in big trouble. If four or more develop, the sport has no chance of survival.

 

[Ha Who]

I think college sports has maybe 10 years left as a major entertainment revenue producer. there are 6 risks that I come up with off the top of my head:

1) There is no way the NBA and NFL will allow it to compete directly with them. They will crush college sports. This is the big one.

2) NIL and the Transfer Portal are getting really unstable and there is no path to regulate either.

3) Legalized gambling and college sports are a very bad combination. There is going to be a major game fixing incident in the next few years.

4) Fewer kids are going to college. This is a big development and will impact people's interest in intercollegiate athletics.

5) The cable bundle could fail very soon, and when it does, the major revenue source for college sports will evaporate. None of these leagues have laid the groundwork for a subscription service.

6) If the SEC and Big 10 really become a P2, fan interest in college sports will evaporate. There is a tipping point of declining fan interest in a situation like this that would feed on itself.

If two of those things develop into problems for college sports, it is in big trouble. If four or more develop, the sport has no chance of survival.

There are many articles on the history of cartels, and why they fail.

 

[RSTuthill]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/opinions/college-football-playoff-championship-leitch/index.html

 

[jostar1]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/opinions/college-football-playoff-championship-leitch/index.html

From the article:

‘Little’ schools will be banished to the minor leagues, and ‘little’ may just mean your alma mater

The biggest losers of college football realignment this year were unquestionably Washington State and Oregon State. After years in the Pac-12, their conference imploded around them, and while everyone else found safe havens, they were stuck in the mid-tier Mountain West … with their days of national relevance likely behind them forever.

But if you feel bad for them, don’t get too comfortable: Your school could be next. An inevitable result of a two-conference, NFL-style system will be a consolidation of schools, which will mean, with geography no longer a determining factor, only the schools that get big TV ratings will get to play on the biggest stage. That’s immediate bad news for schools like Northwestern and Vanderbilt, small private schools that have benefitted from their history with their conferences, but if the number of schools in these conferences is whittled down to 48 or even 32 teams, the meat will be cut much closer to the bone.

Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, they’ll all be fine. But at 32 teams — which is the direction all this is going — well, does that leave room for, say, Missouri? Kentucky? Purdue? Illinois? Arizona State? Kansas? If your team isn’t a member of that 32, it will be as irrelevant as Washington State or Oregon State is now. If you didn’t stand up for them this time, who will stand up for you then?