What is the end game in a P2 world?

[uconndogs]

The NCAA is a monstrously expensive operation.

If you think that the power conferences are not keenly aware of how much money the NCAA absorbs off the top, I cannot help you. They’ve just about tapped out television money, they’re about to fight over CFP money and when they’re done tapping everything else, they will come for the NCAA.

I have no idea what the NCAA’s operating structure looks like. But assuming it’s that bloated at the expense of the P2 in particular, then I suspect the P2 are mapping out a plan to flip the NCAA the bird. At that point it’s unfettered, Wild West professional sports. It will be gross!

 

[Fishy]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

I have no idea what the NCAA’s operating structure looks like. But assuming it’s that bloated at the expense of the P2 in particular, then I suspect the P2 are mapping out a plan to flip the NCAA the bird. At that point it’s unfettered, Wild West professional sports. It will be gross!

So figure the NCAA takes in a billion dollars.

$600M is distributed to D1 schools - $400M is not. About $150M goes to hosting championships and about $8M goes to D2 and D3. There’s miscellaneous student aid in there and then overhead.

It’s a really big piece of pie.

 

[ZooCougar]

I agree. I will add that there is no scenario where the NFL and NBA stand by and let Michigan and Alabama and USC become direct competitors.

The NFL won’t do anything to college football. The NFL wants to see the status quo because that is what is most productive. College is their low cost talent pipeline, like military is for the Airline industry.

 

[Patman]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.

Either that or build a giant jenga tower

 

[Patman]

Just so they can pay the assistant coaches more.



So figure the NCAA takes in a billion dollars.

$600M is distributed to D1 schools - $400M is not. About $150M goes to hosting championships and about $8M goes to D2 and D3. There’s miscellaneous student aid in there and then overhead.

It’s a really big piece of pie.

I think this is happening sooner than later. The proposed 16 team tournament fox is putting together is absolutely the type of trial balloon that will be the start of the end. I have a hard time believing those conferences aren't behind that but if not it's in their combined interest. Boats moving in the same direction and all that. The ncaa is the middleman to thrse schools. Just a matter of time before they get cut out. It's become clear

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The NFL won’t do anything to college football. The NFL wants to see the status quo because that is what is most productive. College is their low cost talent pipeline, like military is for the Airline industry.

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

 

[Travelman6]

End game? More and more money and power consolidated into fewer and fewer hands. A microcosm of the world I suppose.

 

[Kolumbo]

Football power team number have not changed . The number of teams and regions represented is more important than a conference .
In 2010 your hard 6 power conferences
Now you have 4
Losers
UConn
USF
OSU
WSU
Winners
Houston
TCU
UCF
SMU

I’m not counting BYU a
So whether it’s 6 or 4 it’s really unchanged except geographically
If you’re looking for a commonality it could be simply the markets served by those loser schools was already saturated . And that the destruction of the SW conference by ESPN and UT was a mistake .

I'll lump cincy and l-ville in with the winners. they were in C-USA with TCU, memphis, houston, uab before joining the big east.

 

[The Yakk]

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

That's true. The airline industry is just mean and nasty to its customers.

 

[ZooCougar]

The military is not competing directly with the airline industry. And the airline industry is not nearly as mean or nasty to competitors as the NFL is.

The military provides trained pilots to the airline industry. And at no cost to the industry.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The military provides trained pilots to the airline industry. And at no cost to the industry.

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

 

[ZooCougar]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

The NFL is very worried about realignment and consolidation. They think it might dilute or decrease in the size of the talent pool if it becomes more exclusive.

Most college programs don’t make many. If there is a cost to the NFL or NBA then the benefits far outweigh whatever they may be.

Also you forgot to take your crazy pills again.

 

[Patman]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

How much money does the NFL and NBA spend on college sports?

 

[Dizzy21]

Do you work at a non-profit or the Peace Corps? Because I can not figure out why anyone would think that the billions of revenue that college sports generate would be considered “at no cost” to the NFL, or NBA.

Most schools do not make a profit on sports as is, imagine if they had to pay the players. And even then, not being associated with the University would kill crowds and rivalries in a minor league. NFL and NBA would lose money by starting leagues in place of college, so there is a revenue cost for sure, but at far as income, they are saving money.

 

[Chuck]

Too much in here for me to fully digest. Sorry if I’m being redundant.

I still think there is dance that goes on between the NFL, NCAA and NBA. That dance changed with the payment to players. Previously, the NBA and NFL knew that they could pick off the best players whenever they were ready. While they still can, I would think they are watching carefully.

Should the power college teams continue to contract, I can see them morphing even more into a competitive professional league. Players are going to be considered employees some time soon. There are too many quality players for there to really be a P2. Nelson is right that they can’t have 40 person basketball teams and 300 person football teams. Players just wouldn’t do that knowing that they’ll never play and therefore, never go “real pro”. But what if the P2 treats the G(everyone else) as THEIR minor leagues. Transferring to a P2 can be done at any time, and you get 5 years to play 4 AT the P2 level. Heck, maybe they even drop playing eligibility altogether. Wanna play at Alabama until you’re 28? Go for it.

Another thing that could impact all of this is youth participation in football. Tackle football participation is declining. Couple that with a declining youth population, and maybe what I said above isn’t as true. Maybe there will need to be contraction because of a smaller talent pool. I can say, from first hand knowledge, that football is dying in my upper middle class town. The old timers still go to the game, and they complain about the team struggling against blue collar towns that still have better participation. But it’s not just the numbers. Between soccer and lacrosse, the best athletes are staying away from football. We still have a team, but the kids would never make it onto the soccer or lacrosse field.

 

[Patman]

This is why the first encroachment on the pros will be longer college careers. Gosh the players have such trouble graduating. Let's give them 5 years. As long as the money is there who is going to care.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think college sports has maybe 10 years left as a major entertainment revenue producer. there are 6 risks that I come up with off the top of my head:

1) There is no way the NBA and NFL will allow it to compete directly with them. They will crush college sports. This is the big one.

2) NIL and the Transfer Portal are getting really unstable and there is no path to regulate either.

3) Legalized gambling and college sports are a very bad combination. There is going to be a major game fixing incident in the next few years.

4) Fewer kids are going to college. This is a big development and will impact people's interest in intercollegiate athletics.

5) The cable bundle could fail very soon, and when it does, the major revenue source for college sports will evaporate. None of these leagues have laid the groundwork for a subscription service.

6) If the SEC and Big 10 really become a P2, fan interest in college sports will evaporate. There is a tipping point of declining fan interest in a situation like this that would feed on itself.

If two of those things develop into problems for college sports, it is in big trouble. If four or more develop, the sport has no chance of survival.

 

[Ha Who]

I think college sports has maybe 10 years left as a major entertainment revenue producer. there are 6 risks that I come up with off the top of my head:

1) There is no way the NBA and NFL will allow it to compete directly with them. They will crush college sports. This is the big one.

2) NIL and the Transfer Portal are getting really unstable and there is no path to regulate either.

3) Legalized gambling and college sports are a very bad combination. There is going to be a major game fixing incident in the next few years.

4) Fewer kids are going to college. This is a big development and will impact people's interest in intercollegiate athletics.

5) The cable bundle could fail very soon, and when it does, the major revenue source for college sports will evaporate. None of these leagues have laid the groundwork for a subscription service.

6) If the SEC and Big 10 really become a P2, fan interest in college sports will evaporate. There is a tipping point of declining fan interest in a situation like this that would feed on itself.

If two of those things develop into problems for college sports, it is in big trouble. If four or more develop, the sport has no chance of survival.

There are many articles on the history of cartels, and why they fail.

 

[RSTuthill]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/opinions/college-football-playoff-championship-leitch/index.html

 

[jostar1]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/opinions/college-football-playoff-championship-leitch/index.html

From the article:

‘Little’ schools will be banished to the minor leagues, and ‘little’ may just mean your alma mater

The biggest losers of college football realignment this year were unquestionably Washington State and Oregon State. After years in the Pac-12, their conference imploded around them, and while everyone else found safe havens, they were stuck in the mid-tier Mountain West … with their days of national relevance likely behind them forever.

But if you feel bad for them, don’t get too comfortable: Your school could be next. An inevitable result of a two-conference, NFL-style system will be a consolidation of schools, which will mean, with geography no longer a determining factor, only the schools that get big TV ratings will get to play on the biggest stage. That’s immediate bad news for schools like Northwestern and Vanderbilt, small private schools that have benefitted from their history with their conferences, but if the number of schools in these conferences is whittled down to 48 or even 32 teams, the meat will be cut much closer to the bone.

Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, they’ll all be fine. But at 32 teams — which is the direction all this is going — well, does that leave room for, say, Missouri? Kentucky? Purdue? Illinois? Arizona State? Kansas? If your team isn’t a member of that 32, it will be as irrelevant as Washington State or Oregon State is now. If you didn’t stand up for them this time, who will stand up for you then?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/opinions/college-football-playoff-championship-leitch/index.html

But in the long term, when you pattern yourself after the NFL in order to get some of their television juice, when you jettison the traditions and orthodoxies that made people fall in love with the sport in the first place, you stop being college football: You simply become Minor League NFL. And no one cares about minor league anything.

This is what a lot of people do not understand. Once college sports stop being a collective experience that a huge portion of the population can identify with, and becomes a club that only a few thousand fans belong to, most people, including many of those that are fans of teams in the club, will simply stop caring.

I do not agree with the author that the P2 would even be able to pull off being a minor league. The NBA and NFL would snuff them out if it gets small enough.

 

[Stinger92860]

I believe the endgame for P2 football is 32 teams. If the NCAA can be cut out of the bball tourney money, something similar will happen With bball. Men’s only.

 

[LBird33]

I barely watch now because it’s so slanted to the Cartel. I got interested in UConn about 20 years ago because they are the state school. Always hoped they could become competitive. The college football good ole boys are ruining the game of hope.

 

[Kolumbo]

They can have 32 or 64 or 68 teams. Shorten the season to 8 - 10 games. Then have a 68 team dance, everyone is invited. Same 68 teams every year. Now the regular season won't matter at all and they can all save up for the tournament. They can even have a losers bracket so everyone keeps playing like the useless bowl games. Totally trash the sport for good.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I believe the endgame for P2 football is 32 teams. If the NCAA can be cut out of the bball tourney money, something similar will happen With bball. Men’s only.

And you think fans of all the schools excluded will simply pick one of the remaining schools to root for?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I barely watch now because it’s so slanted to the Cartel. I got interested in UConn about 20 years ago because they are the state school. Always hoped they could become competitive. The college football good ole boys are ruining the game of hope.

My main focus is on watching UCONN. I'm not particularly interested in what Alabama or Michigan is up to. Watching other schools doesn't capture my attention, and I believe many share this sentiment. If the system is disrupted by greed, fans might shift their attention to the NFL. College football might only retain interest from fans of those 32 teams.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

How long do you think the NBA and NFL are going to let the P2 develop into a competitor to them before the NBA and NFL crush them by forming their own minor league?

There is no equivalent to American college sports anywhere else in the world. In every other country, the minor leagues are just minor leagues, either as standalone franchises or affiliated with an upper tier franchise. America's primary minor league in basketball and football has been sports teams affiliated with colleges. These teams provided a deeper connection to their fan base than a pro team could, because the fans often actually went to the school or at least knew someone who did. Even if a particular fan's team was not competitive in a sport, the linked network of teams and connection with the college experience held fan interest.

Now those connections are fraying. These teams are becoming just glorified minor league teams that happen to have a school name on their jersey. The players are getting paid now, and the top programs are figuring out ways to pay the players even more. Furthermore, two conferences, solely by virtue of contracts with major sports networks, are trying to eliminate all the other schools that play professional sports. What is the end game?

If the P2 are successful in eliminating the other schools from competition for tournament access, broadcasting, and talent, what does the product look like in 10 years, and do fans follow it? If the appeal of college sports was always most fans personal connection to a program, what happens to that connection when the vast majority of colleges are not even allowed to compete? Michigan and Alabama just become two more minor league teams in a crowded entertainment market. And why would the NBA and NFL allow individual university-affiliated sports teams to generate nine figures of revenue leveraging a product that the NBA and NFL are promoting, and control. Why wouldn't they just promote their own minor league?

For the P2 scenario to work, not only does college sports have to somehow buck the trend that has swamped scripted movies and television towards fragmentation, but they need the NBA and NFL to allow them to do it. Good luck with that.

Minor leagues have been tried and the NBA G league is the best they can do. They’re a huge money loser.
Basketball and Football were both invented and popularized on the college level and huge sports before a pro league existed .
I understand the US is an anomaly but it’s somewhat due to the inclusive nature of US universities with distinct geographic identities.
These Universities bring huge fan bases which could never be duplicated on a minor league basis. These pro leagues have a free developmental league .
Name the best Triple A baseball team as some of them have been around for many years. The Toledo Mud Hens , or Providence
They have a following but nothing compared to a university with 30-50k students and hundreds of thousands of alumni ,plus other fans who feel pride in their state school.
The European model. may eventually work for a non revenue college. sport like soccer but it’s an incredible transition to that model in the two big revenue sports.

 

[NE Football]

I think the NFL could run a very successful minor league system. They have all of the facilities in place and football is the most popular sport in the US. One game per week also helps boost attendance.

 

[NE Football]

I believe the endgame for P2 football is 32 teams. If the NCAA can be cut out of the bball tourney money, something similar will happen With bball. Men’s only.

Well, the B1G and the SEC have 34 teams now. Can they get enough TV revenue to expand? Can they get 75% of their members to vote in additional members? Those are two big questions.

 

[Patman]

Minor leagues have been tried and the NBA G league is the best they can do. They’re a huge money loser.
Basketball and Football were both invented and popularized on the college level and huge sports before a pro league existed .
I understand the US is an anomaly but it’s somewhat due to the inclusive nature of US universities with distinct geographic identities.
These Universities bring huge fan bases which could never be duplicated on a minor league basis. These pro leagues have a free developmental league .
Name the best Triple A baseball team as some of them have been around for many years. The Toledo Mud Hens , or Providence
They have a following but nothing compared to a university with 30-50k students and hundreds of thousands of alumni ,plus other fans who feel pride in their state school.
The European model. may eventually work for a non revenue college. sport like soccer but it’s an incredible transition to that model in the two big revenue sports.

joke's on you, Pawtucket hasn't been in Minor League Baseball since covid. Moved them to worcester.

The euro sports model is not working in the US The reason the college model worked in the first place was because it was a subsidized model where people werent expected to show up and watch games.