What is the end game in a P2 world? | Page 3 | The Boneyard

What is the end game in a P2 world?

jostar1 said:
From the article:

‘Little’ schools will be banished to the minor leagues, and ‘little’ may just mean your alma mater

The biggest losers of college football realignment this year were unquestionably Washington State and Oregon State. After years in the Pac-12, their conference imploded around them, and while everyone else found safe havens, they were stuck in the mid-tier Mountain West … with their days of national relevance likely behind them forever.

But if you feel bad for them, don’t get too comfortable: Your school could be next. An inevitable result of a two-conference, NFL-style system will be a consolidation of schools, which will mean, with geography no longer a determining factor, only the schools that get big TV ratings will get to play on the biggest stage. That’s immediate bad news for schools like Northwestern and Vanderbilt, small private schools that have benefitted from their history with their conferences, but if the number of schools in these conferences is whittled down to 48 or even 32 teams, the meat will be cut much closer to the bone.

Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, they’ll all be fine. But at 32 teams — which is the direction all this is going — well, does that leave room for, say, Missouri? Kentucky? Purdue? Illinois? Arizona State? Kansas? If your team isn’t a member of that 32, it will be as irrelevant as Washington State or Oregon State is now. If you didn’t stand up for them this time, who will stand up for you then?
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Nobody is going to get banished: they are going to get priced out. There is a legal difference.

This is why I believe UConn will still be playing 1-A football and major college basketball when all is said and done.

UL Monroe, SJSU, the MAC, etc. likely won’t be able to afford paying athletes.
 
AZHuskiePop said:
Minor leagues have been tried and the NBA G league is the best they can do. They’re a huge money loser.
Basketball and Football were both invented and popularized on the college level and huge sports before a pro league existed .
I understand the US is an anomaly but it’s somewhat due to the inclusive nature of US universities with distinct geographic identities.
These Universities bring huge fan bases which could never be duplicated on a minor league basis. These pro leagues have a free developmental league .
Name the best Triple A baseball team as some of them have been around for many years. The Toledo Mud Hens , or Providence
They have a following but nothing compared to a university with 30-50k students and hundreds of thousands of alumni ,plus other fans who feel pride in their state school.
The European model. may eventually work for a non revenue college. sport like soccer but it’s an incredible transition to that model in the two big revenue sports.
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So you are saying that the NBA and NFL can't do a minor league successfully, but the P2 will once they cut out 90% of the current D1 basketball and 70% of the current D1 football schools?

Will you become an Alabama fan after they ban UConn from competition?
 
shizzle787 said:
Nobody is going to get banished: they are going to get priced out. There is a legal difference.

This is why I believe UConn will still be playing 1-A football and major college basketball when all is said and done.

UL Monroe, SJSU, the MAC, etc. likely won’t be able to afford paying athletes.
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I would add that no one has thought through the implications on youth interest in the sport if the number of scholarship spots available drops by some huge percentage? How many parents are going to invest thousands of dollars in football and basketball over years when there are only 30 schools playing at the highest level in both sports? And what happens to fan interest when tens of thousands of families check out of sports much younger?
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I would add that no one has thought through the implications on youth interest in the sport if the number of scholarship spots available drops by some huge percentage? How many parents are going to invest thousands of dollars in football and basketball over years when there are only 30 schools playing at the highest level in both sports? And what happens to fan interest when tens of thousands of families check out of sports much younger?
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they already drop thousands on private club soccer which offers very little in terms of scholarship returns due to most schools recruiting heavily on the international circuit especially on the men's side. You have to understand that many parents drop thousands for the bragging rights that their kid is playing in college, not that they're looking for some massive scholarship windfall via the sport.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
And you think fans of all the schools excluded will simply pick one of the remaining schools to root for?
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Not at all. It’s about the money and many folks will continue to bet and watch. If someone pays the 32 more money it will happen. You still need content which means the tier 2,3, etc. teams will continue to exist. Think English Football.
 
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John said:
they already drop thousands on private club soccer which offers very little in terms of scholarship returns due to most schools recruiting heavily on the international circuit especially on the men's side. You have to understand that many parents drop thousands for the bragging rights that their kid is playing in college, not that they're looking for some massive scholarship windfall via the sport.
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As someone that has been around youth basketball for a while, I think I have a pretty good sense of why parents do it.
 
Stinger92860 said:
Not at all. It’s about the money and many folks will continue to bet and watch. If someone pays the 32 more money it will happen. You still need content which means the tier 2,3, etc. teams will continue to exist. Think English Football.
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This is underpants gnomes level logic. The money for college sports comes because there are fans. When fans' schools get booted from competition, those fans are likely to follow.
 
John said:
they already drop thousands on private club soccer which offers very little in terms of scholarship returns due to most schools recruiting heavily on the international circuit especially on the men's side. You have to understand that many parents drop thousands for the bragging rights that their kid is playing in college, not that they're looking for some massive scholarship windfall via the sport.
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These days kids often need to play private club soccer just to have a chance to play in high school. Some of these kids might get scholarships to private high schools or college so there is an incentive if they are developed early. But many are just playing so they have a chance to keep up until high school or they want to play with their friends.
 
The college football’s ideal fan is no longer a crazed Auburn message board poster or the sort of guy who sets up his weekend tailgate sometime around Wednesday afternoon. It’s instead a bored, distracted, unaffiliated gambling aficionado who doesn’t really care about college football but will look up from his phone when the television is showing a game with a brand-name team he recognizes.

And that leads us to this...
1704805776487.png
 
jostar1 said:
From the article:

‘Little’ schools will be banished to the minor leagues, and ‘little’ may just mean your alma mater

The biggest losers of college football realignment this year were unquestionably Washington State and Oregon State. .But if you feel bad for them, don’t get too comfortable: Your school could be next.
If your team isn’t a member of that 32, it will be as irrelevant as Washington State or Oregon State is now. If you didn’t stand up for them this time, who will stand up for you then?
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Yep it's looking like it's going to play out, exactly how the Amazon guy said in this article 5+ years ago, I posted before, regarding ......

"Again, back to my friend at Amazon. “We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus. “Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle. “We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams.

(May 30, 2018) Conference re-alignment will come -
“Conference realignment will come,” he said (high ranking executive at Amazon), “but probably not in the way you’re thinking.”
 
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Blades said:
Yep it's looking like it's going to play out, exactly how the Amazon guy said in this article 5+ years ago, I posted before, regarding ......

"Again, back to my friend at Amazon. “We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus. “Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle. “We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams.

(May 30, 2018) Conference re-alignment will come -
“Conference realignment will come,” he said (high ranking executive at Amazon), “but probably not in the way you’re thinking.”
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I said this years ago as well. Basically, it is fairly easy to see which team can attract eyeballs these days with streaming. All the top teams will eventually be Independents signing individual deals like ND and UConn for football based on their media worth. They will put together schedules with each other and some lower tier schools for the streaming. I just can't see media companies keep paying huge money for schools like Northwestern or RU just because they are associated with Ohio State or Michigan.

The ultimate result is each school will be paid based amount of eyeballs they attract. In many ways, what UConn is doing is a glimpse in the future with indy football and everything else in the Big East. College football by itself will be a separate sport with its own schedule etc while rest of the sports will be in a regional league to minimze travel etc.
 
Speaking of streaming: Mike Francesa, NFL, Playoffs, Peacock

 
Blades said:
Yep it's looking like it's going to play out, exactly how the Amazon guy said in this article 5+ years ago, I posted before, regarding ......

"Again, back to my friend at Amazon. “We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus. “Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle. “We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams.

(May 30, 2018) Conference re-alignment will come -
“Conference realignment will come,” he said (high ranking executive at Amazon), “but probably not in the way you’re thinking.”
Expand ...

Another vote that people who went to one school will suddenly become diehard fans of another school. Sure.

We have a pretty good model for what is going to happen to sports, because television and movies already went streaming, in case people hadn't noticed. And the result was massive fragmentation of viewing, not a consolidation. People's entertainment tastes are different, and they don't all want to watch what they are ordered. Networks got away with that for about 20 years, and then cable came along, and fragmented the audience, and then streaming came along, and really fragmented the audience.

I do not feel like arguing with people who think we will accept only being allowed to root for 30 colleges in the future. I predict the sport will die if it gets anywhere close to that, because even hardcore fans won't be interested in college sports if no one else is interested in college sports.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
Another vote that people who went to one school will suddenly become diehard fans of another school. Sure.

We have a pretty good model for what is going to happen to sports, because television and movies already went streaming, in case people hadn't noticed. And the result was massive fragmentation of viewing, not a consolidation. People's entertainment tastes are different, and they don't all want to watch what they are ordered. Networks got away with that for about 20 years, and then cable came along, and fragmented the audience, and then streaming came along, and really fragmented the audience.

I do not feel like arguing with people who think we will accept only being allowed to root for 30 colleges in the future. I predict the sport will die if it gets anywhere close to that, because even hardcore fans won't be interested in college sports if no one else is interested in college sports.
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so you're not going to follow UConn sports anymore?
 
The end game is to capture 85% of the college super sports market and make every national championship defined as SEC vs B1G. And furthermore, the SEC will only enter into this structure if they are granted a 70% win ratio in said championships. Otherwise, the SEC will just roll up the draw bridge, declare themselves the best and live happily in that snow globe with ESPN as executive producer and creative director.
 
If schools really pursued this there would be an argument for more schools going independent in football. If the average Big Ten school is worth $100M then Ohio State could (in theory) go out to chase its own $125M offer rather than subsidizing Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, etc. Sign your ND-esque deal with Amazon. Keep all the monies for yourself. Schedule the games that maximize your profits, if your pedigree and profits dwarf the others, being an independent won't keep you out of the playoff, giving you more money to keep for yourself to feed the monster. Park the rest of the sports in a conference that makes more sense and/or maximizes any profit to be had from basketball (and baseball or hockey or womens basketball or whatever else you can turn a profit on).
 
So, I guess we already knew this, they want to get the fewest number of schools under one umbrella and then one contract to rule them all. Only reason to have two conferences is there's only two major networks in play
 
Here are the football national champions from the last 50+ years, as well as their 2024 conference affiliation. In the poll-era, co-champions are listed for those years:

2023​
MichiganB1G
2022​
GeorgiaSEC
2021​
GeorgiaSEC
2020​
AlabamaSEC
2019​
LSUSEC
2018​
ClemsonACC
2017​
AlabamaSEC
2016​
ClemsonACC
2015​
AlabamaSEC
2014​
Ohio StateB1G
2013​
Florida StateACC
2012​
AlabamaSEC
2011​
AlabamaSEC
2010​
AuburnSEC
2009​
AlabamaSEC
2008​
FloridaSEC
2007​
LSUSEC
2006​
FloridaSEC
2005​
TexasSEC
2004​
USCB1G
2003​
LSUSEC
2002​
Ohio StateB1G
2001​
MiamiACC
2000​
OklahomaSEC
1999​
Florida StateACC
1998​
TennesseeSEC
1197​
MichiganB1G
1997​
NebraskaB1G
1996​
FloridaSEC
1995​
NebraskaB1G
1994​
NebraskaB1G
1993​
Florida StateACC
1992​
AlabamaSEC
1991​
MiamiACC
1991​
WashingtonB1G
1990​
ColoradoBig 12
1990​
Georgia TechACC
1989​
MiamiACC
1988​
Notre DameInd
1987​
MiamiACC
1986​
Penn StateB1G
1985​
OklahomaSEC
1984​
BYUBig 12
1983​
MiamiACC
1982​
Penn StateB1G
1981​
ClemsonACC
1980​
GeorgiaSEC
1979​
AlabamaSEC
1978​
AlabamaSEC
1978​
USCB1G
1977​
Notre DameInd
1976​
PittsburghACC
1975​
OklahomaSEC
1974​
OklahomaSEC
1974​
USCB1G
1973​
Notre DameInd
1973​
AlabamaSEC
1972​
USCB1G
1971​
NebraskaB1G
1970​
NebraskaB1G
1970​
TexasSEC
1970​
Ohio StateB1G

Assuming Florida State, Clemson and Miami find landing spots in the P2, and assuming that Notre Dame, while independent, qualifies as a P2 level program, here are the years every other school combined won national championships since 1970:

1990 Colorado
1990 Georgia Tech
1984 BYU
1976 Pittsburgh

Only 3 years (1990 had co-champions) saw a non P2 school win a national championship. If you want to go back further in time, the next year to see a non P2 champion was Syracuse in 1959.

When I looked this up, I knew the numbers would be low, but I had no idea it would be this low. 1990. 1984. 1976. 1959. The last 4 years that a non P2 or soon to be P2 school won national championships in football.
 
CL82 said:
The college football’s ideal fan is no longer a crazed Auburn message board poster or the sort of guy who sets up his weekend tailgate sometime around Wednesday afternoon. It’s instead a bored, distracted, unaffiliated gambling aficionado who doesn’t really care about college football but will look up from his phone when the television is showing a game with a brand-name team he recognizes.

And that leads us to this...
View attachment 94903
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Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.
 
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noeynox said:
Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.
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This X100. Kids under 25 do not obsess over sports like the prior generations. They like a few bites, don't really eat the whole dish. A viewing party for a game? Never see that happen and I did that all the time 20 years ago.
 
noeynox said:
Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.
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Unless they're gambling on it, and even then they may only watch during the last quarter.

I suspect that for Connecticut, playing football off campus may have a collateral consequence of kids feeling less connected to the program. Being able to roll out of bed and wander over to the game makes life, and game attendance, a lot easier, and if kids are attending games routinely as students they are far more likely to continue to do so as alumni.

Now, that's definitely not the only fact that is suppressing our attendance, of which "sucking" would be the leading factor, but it is definitely a contributing factor.
 
noeynox said:
Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.
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A generation of nerds. They don't drink, get laid, watch sports, drive...
 
superjohn said:
A generation of nerds. They don't drink, get laid, watch sports, drive...
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They do all of those things except aren't immersed in watching sports.
 
Exit 4 said:
This X100. Kids under 25 do not obsess over sports like the prior generations. They like a few bites, don't really eat the whole dish. A viewing party for a game? Never see that happen and I did that all the time 20 years ago.
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Can we talk viewing parties??

In college(45 years ago. '78 grad) we had 2 "International Case Days" per year. It was a double header sports viewing extravaganza. Day1 was Ohio State-Michigan/USC-UCLA day during Football season, and Day 2 was the semifinals of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. TV's were scarce in those days, so we found someone who had a decent TV, and they were the host. You were not admitted to the room without ponying up a case of beer. No one would leave until the second game was over, unless an ambulance was required!

By the way Exit 4, I was exit 9.
 
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