What is the end game in a P2 world?

[nelsonmuntz]

How long do you think the NBA and NFL are going to let the P2 develop into a competitor to them before the NBA and NFL crush them by forming their own minor league?

There is no equivalent to American college sports anywhere else in the world. In every other country, the minor leagues are just minor leagues, either as standalone franchises or affiliated with an upper tier franchise. America's primary minor league in basketball and football has been sports teams affiliated with colleges. These teams provided a deeper connection to their fan base than a pro team could, because the fans often actually went to the school or at least knew someone who did. Even if a particular fan's team was not competitive in a sport, the linked network of teams and connection with the college experience held fan interest.

Now those connections are fraying. These teams are becoming just glorified minor league teams that happen to have a school name on their jersey. The players are getting paid now, and the top programs are figuring out ways to pay the players even more. Furthermore, two conferences, solely by virtue of contracts with major sports networks, are trying to eliminate all the other schools that play professional sports. What is the end game?

If the P2 are successful in eliminating the other schools from competition for tournament access, broadcasting, and talent, what does the product look like in 10 years, and do fans follow it? If the appeal of college sports was always most fans personal connection to a program, what happens to that connection when the vast majority of colleges are not even allowed to compete? Michigan and Alabama just become two more minor league teams in a crowded entertainment market. And why would the NBA and NFL allow individual university-affiliated sports teams to generate nine figures of revenue leveraging a product that the NBA and NFL are promoting, and control. Why wouldn't they just promote their own minor league?

For the P2 scenario to work, not only does college sports have to somehow buck the trend that has swamped scripted movies and television towards fragmentation, but they need the NBA and NFL to allow them to do it. Good luck with that.

 

[billybud]

Maybe it will be regional...

In the south, folks are college sports fans...there is not as much pro sports interest as in the northeast and midwest.

When it comes to football, the southeast follows college ball....not just one team, but many.

 

[dayooper]

How long do you think the NBA and NFL are going to let the P2 develop into a competitor to them before the NBA and NFL crush them by forming their own minor league?

There is no equivalent to American college sports anywhere else in the world. In every other country, the minor leagues are just minor leagues, either as standalone franchises or affiliated with an upper tier franchise. America's primary minor league in basketball and football has been sports teams affiliated with colleges. These teams provided a deeper connection to their fan base than a pro team could, because the fans often actually went to the school or at least knew someone who did. Even if a particular fan's team was not competitive in a sport, the linked network of teams and connection with the college experience held fan interest.

Now those connections are fraying. These teams are becoming just glorified minor league teams that happen to have a school name on their jersey. The players are getting paid now, and the top programs are figuring out ways to pay the players even more. Furthermore, two conferences, solely by virtue of contracts with major sports networks, are trying to eliminate all the other schools that play professional sports. What is the end game?

If the P2 are successful in eliminating the other schools from competition for tournament access, broadcasting, and talent, what does the product look like in 10 years, and do fans follow it? If the appeal of college sports was always most fans personal connection to a program, what happens to that connection when the vast majority of colleges are not even allowed to compete? Michigan and Alabama just become two more minor league teams in a crowded entertainment market. And why would the NBA and NFL allow individual university-affiliated sports teams to generate nine figures of revenue leveraging a product that the NBA and NFL are promoting, and control. Why wouldn't they just promote their own minor league?

For the P2 scenario to work, not only does college sports have to somehow buck the trend that has swamped scripted movies and television towards fragmentation, but they need the NBA and NFL to allow them to do it. Good luck with that.

For football, in my opinion, it would never happen as there’s too much financial investment teams have to make for minor leagues to work. Why would the they take away the coaching these players get for at least 3 years for free so they could start a money pit that they will never get their return on. Throw in the money they make from the NFL draft and the college game makes the NFL money. There have been 2 lower leagues that have been tried in the last few years and they both kinda flopped. For the amount of money NFL minor leagues would take to operate, I just don’t see it as a viable option.

Basketball, on the other hand, is already changing, at least as player development is concerned. Most of the 2023 NBA draft was from the college ranks, but only 1 of the top 5 played college ball. Picks 4 and 5 were from an Overtime Elite, a private training group. Who knows how that will turn out? If the Thompson Twins become players, there may be more elite recruits that sign up with that program. Then there’s the G-League. There’s been at least 1 player drafted in the top 10 from the G-League in the last 3 drafts. Would the G-League and groups like Overtime Elite take the place of college basketball? Probably not, but they do get more coaching as they aren’t held back by NCAA rules. Then you have coaches that just recruit the top high school players, don’t really coach them and send them off to the draft. That doesn’t help either.

Here’s the thing, I don’t think either sport will ever stop being big draws as it’s not about the players, it’s about the teams. Players come and go every 3-5 years for football and 1-4 for basketball (even more turnover with the transfer portal), but the Huskies will always be the Huskies. Michigan will always be Michigan, Alabama will always be Alabama. People watch because it’s their team, no matter what the names are in the program.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

For football, in my opinion, it would never happen as there’s too much financial investment teams have to make for minor leagues to work. Why would the they take away the coaching these players get for at least 3 years for free so they could start a money pit that they will never get their return on. Throw in the money they make from the NFL draft and the college game makes the NFL money. There have been 2 lower leagues that have been tried in the last few years and they both kinda flopped. For the amount of money NFL minor leagues would take to operate, I just don’t see it as a viable option.

Basketball, on the other hand, is already changing, at least as player development is concerned. Most of the 2023 NBA draft was from the college ranks, but only 1 of the top 5 played college ball. Picks 4 and 5 were from an Overtime Elite, a private training group. Who knows how that will turn out? If the Thompson Twins become players, there may be more elite recruits that sign up with that program. Then there’s the G-League. There’s been at least 1 player drafted in the top 10 from the G-League in the last 3 drafts. Would the G-League and groups like Overtime Elite take the place of college basketball? Probably not, but they do get more coaching as they aren’t held back by NCAA rules. Then you have coaches that just recruit the top high school players, don’t really coach them and send them off to the draft. That doesn’t help either.

Here’s the thing, I don’t think either sport will ever stop being big draws as it’s not about the players, it’s about the teams. Players come and go every 3-5 years for football and 1-4 for basketball (even more turnover with the transfer portal), but the Huskies will always be the Huskies. Michigan will always be Michigan, Alabama will always be Alabama. People watch because it’s their team, no matter what the names are in the program.

Did you say that the players are developed for free? Are you kidding? College football is a multibillion business that I can promise you the NFL would like to control.

As for the connection, the Big 10 and SEC are trying to destroy every program not in their conference and force fans to follow Michigan and Alabama. Do you think that will ever happen?

 

[dayooper]

Did you say that the players are developed for free? Are you kidding? College football is a multibillion business that I can promise you the NFL would like to control.

As for the connection, the Big 10 and SEC are trying to destroy every program not in their conference and force fans to follow Michigan and Alabama. Do you think that will ever happen?

Free for the NFL (yes there’s scouting and what-not). They do not have to support any team, equipment, administrative or travel costs. That’s a huge financial obligation that the NFL does not have to pay for.

No, I don’t. Will certain programs be de-emphasized? Yes, but the alumni of schools like BC or Central Michigan will always be fans. This is also where your streaming comes in at. Many schools will be streamed. Will they get as much money as they get now? No, but that’s how many of the smaller schools will work.

In all reality, there are currently a handful of college football programs that can win an NC. There needs to be so much talent on a team to make it to a championship. 22 different starters, at least 1 quality backup in each position group. You also need multiple elite players in certain positions. Most schools can’t compete for the quality of players that the traditional football powers can. Even schools like Michigan and ND struggle to get the complete rosters needed to compete at that level. TCU had a tremendous year and they had an experienced QB (great college but not as fit for an NFL QB) All American WR, very good RB’s and stout OL and DL. Will they be as good this year? Probably not. The Central Michigan’s, Oregon State’s and BC’s of the world can have their best, all time teams and still not be competitive with the football powers. Cinci in 2021 is a good example.

Basketball is a different animal. You can have 2 elite college players and a couple of good, experienced veterans and, if you get hot and a little lucky, you can win a national championship. You don’t need to have the depth that football needs. You will always get the Cinderellas as those small school conferences will produce quality, experienced teams. Loyola Chicago in 2018 is a great example. How good was Loyola the next year? They did not make the NCAA tournament. That being said, the UConn’s and Kansas’ of the world are going to consistently have great teams because they can attract, coach and retain their players.

You also talk about streaming as the future. I to believe that streaming will be a big part of the future (not present). You consistently talk about conferences needing to prepare for streaming to the extent that they need to start now. I believe they are. They are consolidating into conferences that will get the best deal for streaming services. That PAC deal was atrocious as they never were going to hit those numbers and, because the streaming is so new, no one outside of their fan base would see them. They would become an afterthought. Until all of the big conferences go fully streaming, none will. They will dab in here and there first, like the NFL did, but full streaming is still a ways away. In the meantime, the major conferences are preparing to get the best terms they can by consolidating the viewership potential.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Free for the NFL (yes there’s scouting and what-not). They do not have to support any team, equipment, administrative or travel costs. That’s a huge financial obligation that the NFL does not have to pay for.

No, I don’t. Will certain programs be de-emphasized? Yes, but the alumni of schools like BC or Central Michigan will always be fans. This is also where your streaming comes in at. Many schools will be streamed. Will they get as much money as they get now? No, but that’s how many of the smaller schools will work.

In all reality, there are currently a handful of college football programs that can win an NC. There needs to be so much talent on a team to make it to a championship. 22 different starters, at least 1 quality backup in each position group. You also need multiple elite players in certain positions. Most schools can’t compete for the quality of players that the traditional football powers can. Even schools like Michigan and ND struggle to get the complete rosters needed to compete at that level. TCU had a tremendous year and they had an experienced QB (great college but not as fit for an NFL QB) All American WR, very good RB’s and stout OL and DL. Will they be as good this year? Probably not. The Central Michigan’s, Oregon State’s and BC’s of the world can have their best, all time teams and still not be competitive with the football powers. Cinci in 2021 is a good example.

Basketball is a different animal. You can have 2 elite college players and a couple of good, experienced veterans and, if you get hot and a little lucky, you can win a national championship. You don’t need to have the depth that football needs. You will always get the Cinderellas as those small school conferences will produce quality, experienced teams. Loyola Chicago in 2018 is a great example. How good was Loyola the next year? They did not make the NCAA tournament. That being said, the UConn’s and Kansas’ of the world are going to consistently have great teams because they can attract, coach and retain their players.

You also talk about streaming as the future. I to believe that streaming will be a big part of the future (not present). You consistently talk about conferences needing to prepare for streaming to the extent that they need to start now. I believe they are. They are consolidating into conferences that will get the best deal for streaming services. That PAC deal was atrocious as they never were going to hit those numbers and, because the streaming is so new, no one outside of their fan base would see them. They would become an afterthought. Until all of the big conferences go fully streaming, none will. They will dab in here and there first, like the NFL did, but full streaming is still a ways away. In the meantime, the major conferences are preparing to get the best terms they can by consolidating the viewership potential.

If you don’t think NIL and the Transfer Portal are going to flatten the talent pool in college football, I don’t know what to say to you.

 

[dayooper]

If you don’t think NIL and the Transfer Portal are going to flatten the talent pool in college football, I don’t know what to say to you.

It works both ways. The talent that is held in back up positions leave the bigger schools for greater opportunity while the top talent at the other schools will leave for the football powers. All you have to look at is Jahmyr Gibbs. He was a star at GTech and transferred last year to Alabama. Because of that, he became a top 12 draft pick. Michigan pulled in an All American center from Virginia last year and was an All American this year too. The rich will get richer.

 

[billybud]

Yep...FSU found a great one, Jared Verse, at Albany...last year at FSU, Verse
played in 12 games with nine starts…recorded 48 tackles, including 17.0 for loss with 9.0 sacks, three quarterback hurries, one fumble recovery and one blocked field goal…named first-team All-American by The Athletic…Phil Steele third-team All-American…first-team All-ACC.

ESPN's Draft Analyst Jordan Reid has tagged Verse as the No. 5 selection next year to the Los Angeles Rams, while Pro Football Network's Cam Mellor has him going No. 1 overall to the Arizona Cardinals.

Hiding away playing for Albany.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It works both ways. The talent that is held in back up positions leave the bigger schools for greater opportunity while the top talent at the other schools will leave for the football powers. All you have to look at is Jahmyr Gibbs. He was a star at GTech and transferred last year to Alabama. Because of that, he became a top 12 draft pick. Michigan pulled in an All American center from Virginia last year and was an All American this year too. The rich will get richer.

It isn't working both ways. Kids were willing to sit on the bench at Auburn and Alabama because they were getting bags of cash under-the-table. Now that is over. Kids want to play, not sit.

 

[don356]

It won't be a P2 world. It will be bigger than two conferences, likely 3 or maybe 4. The tv money is shrinking and it will bring the temper the gap right now. It's not as lucrative long term as it once appeared to be.

 

[dayooper]

It isn't working both ways. Kids were willing to sit on the bench at Auburn and Alabama because they were getting bags of cash under-the-table. Now that is over. Kids want to play, not sit.

Huh? This makes no sense. This is exactly what I was saying and added on the top kids are going from lesser football programs to bigger ones. It’s already happening. Unless you are saying that a 2 year starter at GT (who was widely considered their best offensive player) was sitting his junior year for a different player, than I’m unsure what your point was.

 

[billybud]

Last years top receiver for Pitt transferred to FSU and Michigan State's Keon Coleman who led State's recievers in receptions transferred to the Noles as well.

It is a pirating world right now in the portal.

 

[billybud]

And, you are right...talented back ups will leave to find a place to start.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Last years top receiver for Pitt transferred to FSU and Michigan State's Keon Coleman who led State's recievers in receptions transferred to the Noles as well.

It is a pirating world right now in the portal.

Are you really arguing that top players would prefer to sit than to play?

 

[CTBballfan243]

The end game is having 2 to 3 conferences with select universities that are part of the club ( 40 to 60 universities) that make and keep all of the money. They will be the “Major” college athletics. They will make and play by their own rules, have their own tournaments, crown their own champions.
The remaining schools will remain under the NCAA and do their own thing. They will have separate tournaments and crown their champions.

At the end of the day, this is probably best for everyone involved. Schools will compete at a level athletically and financially where they belong.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The end game is having 2 to 3 conferences with select universities that are part of the club ( 40 to 60 universities) that make and keep all of the money. They will be the “Major” college athletics. They will make and play by their own rules, have their own tournaments, crown their own champions.
The remaining schools will remain under the NCAA and do their own thing. They will have separate tournaments and crown their champions.

At the end of the day, this is probably best for everyone involved. Schools will compete at a level athletically and financially where they belong.

Why 40 or 60? Why not 20?

How do they get around the obvious anti-trust problems?

Why would fans of a school that was prevented from being a member of that group have any interest in what remained?

 

[CTBballfan243]

Why 40 or 60? Why not 20?

How do they get around the obvious anti-trust problems?

Why would fans of a school that was prevented from being a member of that group have any interest in what remained?

Your team will still play sports, it will be just at a different level. UConn will most likely be playing BC and Syracuse, and Temple, and UMass. All natural rivals, plus all the Big East bball schools. Other than a different designation not much will change. Yeah, in the basketball tournament there won’t be the ”Power schools” that play major football. But I think we would get use to it after a few years. It will be nice, no more arms race to worry about.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your team will still play sports, it will be just at a different level. UConn will most likely be playing BC and Syracuse, and Temple, and UMass. All natural rivals, plus all the Big East bball schools. Other than a different designation not much will change. Yeah, in the basketball tournament there won’t be the ”Power schools” that play major football. But I think we would get use to it after a few years. It will be nice, no more arms race to worry about.

You wouldn’t be able to give away tickets at gunpoint to fans of a school that got excluded from the playoffs.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Remember posters who said the P2 was going to get all the talent? We are not deep into the season, but SEC Vanderbilt beat a bad (and badly coached) Hawaii team by 7 after smoking them last year, and NCSU beat UConn by 10 after smoking us last season. Mighty Florida lost by 13 in a game that Utah played like a dumpster full of diapers.

If the "P2 will dominate" crowd is right, then the P2 should dominate.

 

[Patman]

LOL. You think that a college system that literally just started paying players two years ago has the moral high ground compared to the NFL and NBA? Really?

Doesn't take much. All it takes for them is to say "what eligibility limit, you can play 6, 7, 8 years..."

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Doesn't take much. All it takes for them is to say "what eligibility limit, you can play 6, 7, 8 years..."

They are already competing with the NBA and NFL. I wouldn’t mind seeing them crushed.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How do people think high school athletes will react to a P2 world? If there are only 20 or 30 schools playing D1 football, that means a lot fewer roster spots for high school players. Would families really invest as much time and money into their child's football or basketball development if there was not a scholarship on the other side of the rainbow? By cutting back on the number of teams playing at the highest level, the P2 would be cutting back on opportunities to play which would inevitably cut back on the number of players investing the time and money to develop their games.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Football power team number have not changed . The number of teams and regions represented is more important than a conference .
In 2010 your hard 6 power conferences
Now you have 4
Losers
UConn
USF
OSU
WSU
Winners
Houston
TCU
UCF
SMU

I’m not counting BYU a
So whether it’s 6 or 4 it’s really unchanged except geographically
If you’re looking for a commonality it could be simply the markets served by those loser schools was already saturated . And that the destruction of the SW conference by ESPN and UT was a mistake .

 

[uconndogs]

My gut tells me that college athletics and probably football in particular is in the process of screwing itself. The money being bantered around for the P2 and the recent introduction of NIL and the transfer portal will drive a professional sports model. There will be little player allegiance to schools. They will migrate to where they can get the most money. That's not the idea that most consumers have of college athletics. In all of this change and conference realignment, college athletic departments and the media may very well have ignored what was important to the viewer.

I've stated this before. I have a limited amount of time to dedicate to watching football. The time I do spend is heavily weighted to the college game. If it looks a lot like a professional franchise, why wouldn't I watch the best players in the world on Sundays instead? I don't think I'm alone in that assessment.