What is the end game in a P2 world?

[Kolumbo]

Speaking of streaming: Mike Francesa, NFL, Playoffs, Peacock

 

[Rufus]

Big Ten fans bid farewell to conference's iconic commercial

Big Ten fans fare and wide said farewell to the league's longtime commercial with the geography of the conference set to change in 2024.

saturdaytradition.com

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yep it's looking like it's going to play out, exactly how the Amazon guy said in this article 5+ years ago, I posted before, regarding ......

"Again, back to my friend at Amazon. “We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus. “Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle. “We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams.

(May 30, 2018) Conference re-alignment will come -
“Conference realignment will come,” he said (high ranking executive at Amazon), “but probably not in the way you’re thinking.”

Another vote that people who went to one school will suddenly become diehard fans of another school. Sure.

We have a pretty good model for what is going to happen to sports, because television and movies already went streaming, in case people hadn't noticed. And the result was massive fragmentation of viewing, not a consolidation. People's entertainment tastes are different, and they don't all want to watch what they are ordered. Networks got away with that for about 20 years, and then cable came along, and fragmented the audience, and then streaming came along, and really fragmented the audience.

I do not feel like arguing with people who think we will accept only being allowed to root for 30 colleges in the future. I predict the sport will die if it gets anywhere close to that, because even hardcore fans won't be interested in college sports if no one else is interested in college sports.

 

[John]

Another vote that people who went to one school will suddenly become diehard fans of another school. Sure.

We have a pretty good model for what is going to happen to sports, because television and movies already went streaming, in case people hadn't noticed. And the result was massive fragmentation of viewing, not a consolidation. People's entertainment tastes are different, and they don't all want to watch what they are ordered. Networks got away with that for about 20 years, and then cable came along, and fragmented the audience, and then streaming came along, and really fragmented the audience.

I do not feel like arguing with people who think we will accept only being allowed to root for 30 colleges in the future. I predict the sport will die if it gets anywhere close to that, because even hardcore fans won't be interested in college sports if no one else is interested in college sports.

so you're not going to follow UConn sports anymore?

 

[Exit 4]

The end game is to capture 85% of the college super sports market and make every national championship defined as SEC vs B1G. And furthermore, the SEC will only enter into this structure if they are granted a 70% win ratio in said championships. Otherwise, the SEC will just roll up the draw bridge, declare themselves the best and live happily in that snow globe with ESPN as executive producer and creative director.

 

[ScottVib]

If schools really pursued this there would be an argument for more schools going independent in football. If the average Big Ten school is worth $100M then Ohio State could (in theory) go out to chase its own $125M offer rather than subsidizing Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, etc. Sign your ND-esque deal with Amazon. Keep all the monies for yourself. Schedule the games that maximize your profits, if your pedigree and profits dwarf the others, being an independent won't keep you out of the playoff, giving you more money to keep for yourself to feed the monster. Park the rest of the sports in a conference that makes more sense and/or maximizes any profit to be had from basketball (and baseball or hockey or womens basketball or whatever else you can turn a profit on).

 

[Patman]

So, I guess we already knew this, they want to get the fewest number of schools under one umbrella and then one contract to rule them all. Only reason to have two conferences is there's only two major networks in play

 

[Rufus]

Here are the football national champions from the last 50+ years, as well as their 2024 conference affiliation. In the poll-era, co-champions are listed for those years:

2023​	Michigan	B1G
2022​	Georgia	SEC
2021​	Georgia	SEC
2020​	Alabama	SEC
2019​	LSU	SEC
2018​	Clemson	ACC
2017​	Alabama	SEC
2016​	Clemson	ACC
2015​	Alabama	SEC
2014​	Ohio State	B1G
2013​	Florida State	ACC
2012​	Alabama	SEC
2011​	Alabama	SEC
2010​	Auburn	SEC
2009​	Alabama	SEC
2008​	Florida	SEC
2007​	LSU	SEC
2006​	Florida	SEC
2005​	Texas	SEC
2004​	USC	B1G
2003​	LSU	SEC
2002​	Ohio State	B1G
2001​	Miami	ACC
2000​	Oklahoma	SEC
1999​	Florida State	ACC
1998​	Tennessee	SEC
1197​	Michigan	B1G
1997​	Nebraska	B1G
1996​	Florida	SEC
1995​	Nebraska	B1G
1994​	Nebraska	B1G
1993​	Florida State	ACC
1992​	Alabama	SEC
1991​	Miami	ACC
1991​	Washington	B1G
1990​	Colorado	Big 12
1990​	Georgia Tech	ACC
1989​	Miami	ACC
1988​	Notre Dame	Ind
1987​	Miami	ACC
1986​	Penn State	B1G
1985​	Oklahoma	SEC
1984​	BYU	Big 12
1983​	Miami	ACC
1982​	Penn State	B1G
1981​	Clemson	ACC
1980​	Georgia	SEC
1979​	Alabama	SEC
1978​	Alabama	SEC
1978​	USC	B1G
1977​	Notre Dame	Ind
1976​	Pittsburgh	ACC
1975​	Oklahoma	SEC
1974​	Oklahoma	SEC
1974​	USC	B1G
1973​	Notre Dame	Ind
1973​	Alabama	SEC
1972​	USC	B1G
1971​	Nebraska	B1G
1970​	Nebraska	B1G
1970​	Texas	SEC
1970​	Ohio State	B1G

Assuming Florida State, Clemson and Miami find landing spots in the P2, and assuming that Notre Dame, while independent, qualifies as a P2 level program, here are the years every other school combined won national championships since 1970:

1990 Colorado
1990 Georgia Tech
1984 BYU
1976 Pittsburgh

Only 3 years (1990 had co-champions) saw a non P2 school win a national championship. If you want to go back further in time, the next year to see a non P2 champion was Syracuse in 1959.

When I looked this up, I knew the numbers would be low, but I had no idea it would be this low. 1990. 1984. 1976. 1959. The last 4 years that a non P2 or soon to be P2 school won national championships in football.

 

[noeynox]

The college football’s ideal fan is no longer a crazed Auburn message board poster or the sort of guy who sets up his weekend tailgate sometime around Wednesday afternoon. It’s instead a bored, distracted, unaffiliated gambling aficionado who doesn’t really care about college football but will look up from his phone when the television is showing a game with a brand-name team he recognizes.

And that leads us to this...
View attachment 94903

Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.

 

[Exit 4]

Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.

This X100. Kids under 25 do not obsess over sports like the prior generations. They like a few bites, don't really eat the whole dish. A viewing party for a game? Never see that happen and I did that all the time 20 years ago.

 

[CL82]

Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.

Unless they're gambling on it, and even then they may only watch during the last quarter.

I suspect that for Connecticut, playing football off campus may have a collateral consequence of kids feeling less connected to the program. Being able to roll out of bed and wander over to the game makes life, and game attendance, a lot easier, and if kids are attending games routinely as students they are far more likely to continue to do so as alumni.

Now, that's definitely not the only fact that is suppressing our attendance, of which "sucking" would be the leading factor, but it is definitely a contributing factor.

 

[superjohn]

Its also the generations behind us simply don't care about sports like we do. My son and his friends play football. If you take them to a game they'll enjoy it. Now get them to watch a whole game on TV. Good luck. I thought it was just my kid, turns out they're all like that, at least the ones i asked. They'll watch a quarter, play Madden with friends with sometimes a good game on a side monitor. The leagues know that hook future generations the game itself isn't enough.

A generation of nerds. They don't drink, get laid, watch sports, drive...

 

[John]

A generation of nerds. They don't drink, get laid, watch sports, drive...

They do all of those things except aren't immersed in watching sports.

 

[superjohn]

They do all of those things except aren't immersed in watching sports.

They do all of those things way less than previous generations.

 

[AllHusky]

This X100. Kids under 25 do not obsess over sports like the prior generations. They like a few bites, don't really eat the whole dish. A viewing party for a game? Never see that happen and I did that all the time 20 years ago.

Can we talk viewing parties??

In college(45 years ago. '78 grad) we had 2 "International Case Days" per year. It was a double header sports viewing extravaganza. Day1 was Ohio State-Michigan/USC-UCLA day during Football season, and Day 2 was the semifinals of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. TV's were scarce in those days, so we found someone who had a decent TV, and they were the host. You were not admitted to the room without ponying up a case of beer. No one would leave until the second game was over, unless an ambulance was required!

By the way Exit 4, I was exit 9.

 

[pepband99]

so you're not going to follow UConn sports anymore?

He's just rooting for the death of football.

Basketball, ironically, is already super fragmented, with 300+ teams - it actually suits the future model much better,

 

[nelsonmuntz]

He's just rooting for the death of football.

Basketball, ironically, is already super fragmented, with 300+ teams - it actually suits the future model much better,

Which school will you root for if you have to choose from among 30 or so Super-P2's? Will you follow them in football and basketball?

 

[Hoophound]

Which school will you root for if you have to choose from among 30 or so Super-P2's? Will you follow them in football and basketball?

Bingo. This is the problem. My attitude is, hell with those 30 schools.

Edit: I will tell every big mouthed P2 fan I know and meet, “I don’t watch anymore, the P2 thing sucks”. I encourage everyone else to do the same. Unfortunately, online gambling will provide them an audience that has nothing to do with fandom. People will deny it being a factor, but most of my UConn fan friends bet on P5 games regularly. They enjoy gambling on the games far more than the games themselves. Gambling may make the P2 work. I hope not.

 

[Ha Who]

Bingo. This is the problem. My attitude is, hell with those 30 schools.

Edit: I will tell every big mouthed P2 fan I know and meet, “I don’t watch anymore, the P2 thing sucks”. I encourage everyone else to do the same. Unfortunately, online gambling will provide them an audience that has nothing to do with fandom. People will deny it being a factor, but most of my UConn fan friends bet on P5 games regularly. They enjoy gambling on the games far more than the games themselves. Gambling may make the P2 work. I hope not.

I’ll just bet on the NFL

 

[pepband99]

Which school will you root for if you have to choose from among 30 or so Super-P2's? Will you follow them in football and basketball?

I'm a full-blown UConn football and basketball fan, and an alumnus. I follow my school, period.

I might look at Clemson scores to converse with my many friends from there, but that's about it.

 

[Rufus]

Ten key topics to open Big Ten football's new era

Four new schools, at least four new head coaches and more to watch for Big Ten football in 2024.

theathletic.com

 

[Rufus]

Trouble in Texas? In-State Recruiting Migration to SEC, Big 10 Concerning for Lone Star Programs

The DCTF Top 100 is littered with SEC, Big 10 commitments, signaling a larger problem for in-state Big 12 programs like Texas Tech, TCU

www.texasfootball.com

 

[Viet Vet]

Which school will you root for if you have to choose from among 30 or so Super-P2's? Will you follow them in football and basketball?

Any, and all, opponents of Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bingo. This is the problem. My attitude is, hell with those 30 schools.

Edit: I will tell every big mouthed P2 fan I know and meet, “I don’t watch anymore, the P2 thing sucks”. I encourage everyone else to do the same. Unfortunately, online gambling will provide them an audience that has nothing to do with fandom. People will deny it being a factor, but most of my UConn fan friends bet on P5 games regularly. They enjoy gambling on the games far more than the games themselves. Gambling may make the P2 work. I hope not.

I'm a full-blown UConn football and basketball fan, and an alumnus. I follow my school, period.

I might look at Clemson scores to converse with my many friends from there, but that's about it.

Almost all college fans feel this same way. They watch college sports because their favorite school is in the mix in some way, shape or form. Take their school out of it, and they won't give a spit. Which means consolidating fans down to two conferences of 16-18 schools each is going to cause fan interest in the product to collapse.

Even the pros realize this. They have expanded to just about every city that can possibly support a major league team, because the pros realize that expanding the footprint expands the fanbase for the entire sport. Yet for some reason, the Big 10 and SEC think that they can contract the sports and all the fans will come running to Georgia and Michigan. We may find out soon enough if they are right.

 

[Rufus]

Almost all college fans feel this same way. They watch college sports because their favorite school is in the mix in some way, shape or form. Take their school out of it, and they won't give a spit. Which means consolidating fans down to two conferences of 16-18 schools each is going to cause fan interest in the product to collapse.

Even the pros realize this. They have expanded to just about every city that can possibly support a major league team, because the pros realize that expanding the footprint expands the fanbase for the entire sport. Yet for some reason, the Big 10 and SEC think that they can contract the sports and all the fans will come running to Georgia and Michigan. We may find out soon enough if they are right.

But isn't that what the SEC and (especially) the B1G are doing...........expanding to just about every city that can possibly support a B1G/SEC team? Giving fans that have migrated to other regions of the country direct access to their product?