NO ONE has any idea what the college football business model will look like in 4 years. It seems like pre-salary cap baseball, where the top programs dominate because they can and are willing to pay more. And dominate could look like 90-7 wins in conference games. A completely realistic scenario could end up with 10-15 schools simply dominating college football, getting all of the talent, and it simply not being worth it to even try for the other programs.
Throw everything any of us know about recruiting in the garbage. Facilities, tradition, location, are all basically irrelevant. Coach may matter a bit, but the size of the NIL paycheck is going to drive decisions. How are we, or most programs, going to compete with Michigan or USC or Georgia? The costs of running a football program are going to be MASSIVE compared to hoops. We are going to have to be prepared to lose tens of millions for multiple years before we get mediocre.
In this world, it would seem to be more likely that football simply breaks off into its own structure. I do not know if this will happen, but it is a possibility. There are so many unknowns, and the costs of getting it wrong are so massive, that I am pretty ambivalent about what comes next with the Big 12. I would MUCH prefer a similar deal with the ACC, even if it was for a little less money.
