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No way I see UVA in the SEC. They bring them nothing. UNC brings basketball, but not much else. FSU would be the best fit, but Florida will block that if they can.
U CONN and Big 10....
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No way I see UVA in the SEC. They bring them nothing. UNC brings basketball, but not much else. FSU would be the best fit, but Florida will block that if they can.
nelsonmuntz
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Missouri would leave because it would rather be affiliated with some of the best universities in the country, especially when those universities make more money on and off the field.
There are two leagues that are untouchable, the Big 10 and Pac 12, The ACC and Big 12 have their GOR, so they are pretty safe. The SEC doesn't think anyone would ever want to leave, and for the most part, they are right. That said, Missouri pined for the Big 10 for years before they joined the SEC, and I don't imagine their preference has changed now.
There are two leagues that are untouchable, the Big 10 and Pac 12, The ACC and Big 12 have their GOR, so they are pretty safe. The SEC doesn't think anyone would ever want to leave, and for the most part, they are right. That said, Missouri pined for the Big 10 for years before they joined the SEC, and I don't imagine their preference has changed now.
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Their (Missouri) preference may not have changed; however, has the Big Ten's preference changed either?
We know that back in 2011 the Big Ten was Missouri's top choice for conference affiliation; however, as one Missouri official put it at that time the Big Ten "has no interest".
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/s...-hope-join-sec-had-wanted-big-ten-invite-most
So, the question is still not so much what Missouri prefers rather it is still what does the Big Ten prefer moving forward with expansion.
Is there any reason to believe that the Big Ten wants Missouri as a member now when it did not two years ago?
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I think I agree with the poster above who said the only way U Conn gets into the Big 10 is with Missouri....but I also think the only way the Big 10 expands in the next two years is with U Conn and Missouri....
No doubt Delaney was looking at Virginia as his first choice. There was also a lot of talk about GT and even UNC. So what has dramatically changed in the last 2 years is the execution of the GOR agreements by the ACC and Big 12. The Big 10's southeast strategy has gone out the window, for at least the nest 10 years, unless one or more ACC teams is up to challenging not only the exit fee but also the GORs.
Looking back to when Neb. was added, Mo was probably the 2md choice at the time....they lost out when NEB became available....then they joined the SEC and the BIG Ten lured MD.......
So if the Big 10 REALLY wants to expand within the next 2 years, MO may be a requirement. KU or OK would involve breaking a GOR....Conn and KU wouldn't have enough football moxey anyway. OK would bring academic and culture issues. TX doesdn't want to move, nor does UNC.
So the Big Ten could afford to pee all over MO two years ago, but might have to kiss up to them at this point.....as others have suggested, that would be a tough sale for Mo's sports fans and t-shirt backers.........
Obviously the situation changes dramatically if the Big Ten decides to wait 10 years for the GORs to run out......but tjhere have been a lot of indicatikons they would much prefer to move before tjhe current TV contracts expire.....
Fishy
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The Big Ten's problem, at least in terms of expansion, is a lack of warm bodies.
Missouri was snubbed pretty hard by the Big Ten the last time around and they really do not need the Big Ten this time around. And have the conditions that caused the Big Ten to reject Mizzou in the past changed so much that they're now a candidate?
The ACC has a grant of rights, but beyond that, it's pretty clear that Virginia and probably North Carolina have rejected the Big Ten and opted to stay in a generally southern conference.
Then there is UConn - we have no obvious partner to enter with and, oh by the way, we have the worst football team in DI. We're in a conference with a bunch of schools with more parking spaces than books and they're drubbing us weekly.
If someone puts a gun to your head and asks you to make a prediction, if you don't say conference realignment has gone into deep hibernation, you do not have enough regard for the well-being of your head.
Missouri was snubbed pretty hard by the Big Ten the last time around and they really do not need the Big Ten this time around. And have the conditions that caused the Big Ten to reject Mizzou in the past changed so much that they're now a candidate?
The ACC has a grant of rights, but beyond that, it's pretty clear that Virginia and probably North Carolina have rejected the Big Ten and opted to stay in a generally southern conference.
Then there is UConn - we have no obvious partner to enter with and, oh by the way, we have the worst football team in DI. We're in a conference with a bunch of schools with more parking spaces than books and they're drubbing us weekly.
If someone puts a gun to your head and asks you to make a prediction, if you don't say conference realignment has gone into deep hibernation, you do not have enough regard for the well-being of your head.
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As I indicated in my previous post, I think UConn will ultimately be in the B1G. (In fact, you may remember that the administration at Rutgers knew way before the official announcement that they would get a B1G invite when a suitable partner was found. UConn may already be in the same situation.)
The bad news, as I see it, is UConn is going to be waiting awhile. A long while. The major conferences are much, much more stable than expansionist junkies seem to think. With the GOR's in place, all the more so.
IMHO, Missouri is not happening. B1G didn't want them. B1G didn't want them again. Don't know why exactly, but I'll bet the B1G still doesn't them and now I'm sure the feeling is mostly mutual especially since MO thought they were falling onto concrete and hit a feather bed instead. The most likely SEC candidate in my opinion is Vandy and, frankly, that's the longest of long shots and probably not happening. My guess is that nothing's happening until the GORs near expiration, or maybe if Texas goes slightly more insane and starts shopping again, or maybe if the Holy Mother appears on the 50 yard line during a Notre Dame game and gives the Irish a directive from heaven. I think the B1G really does want to see how the Rutgers/Maryland integration plays out. I don't think the B1G is ready to try a "grow a program" at this point.
Unless some Black Swan swims into the picture, like a Canadian school or John Hopkins running a full slate of D-1 sports or Amherst suddenly getting sports mania, I think UConn has to make the best of the wait and do all the right things in the interim.
Down the road, I could see B1G putting the full court press on Virginia or Kansas, but that's a long way off at this point.
The bad news, as I see it, is UConn is going to be waiting awhile. A long while. The major conferences are much, much more stable than expansionist junkies seem to think. With the GOR's in place, all the more so.
IMHO, Missouri is not happening. B1G didn't want them. B1G didn't want them again. Don't know why exactly, but I'll bet the B1G still doesn't them and now I'm sure the feeling is mostly mutual especially since MO thought they were falling onto concrete and hit a feather bed instead. The most likely SEC candidate in my opinion is Vandy and, frankly, that's the longest of long shots and probably not happening. My guess is that nothing's happening until the GORs near expiration, or maybe if Texas goes slightly more insane and starts shopping again, or maybe if the Holy Mother appears on the 50 yard line during a Notre Dame game and gives the Irish a directive from heaven. I think the B1G really does want to see how the Rutgers/Maryland integration plays out. I don't think the B1G is ready to try a "grow a program" at this point.
Unless some Black Swan swims into the picture, like a Canadian school or John Hopkins running a full slate of D-1 sports or Amherst suddenly getting sports mania, I think UConn has to make the best of the wait and do all the right things in the interim.
Down the road, I could see B1G putting the full court press on Virginia or Kansas, but that's a long way off at this point.
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I would agree with all this, except it really doesn't square with the recent comments by Glass, the comments by UM's AD a couple months ago, and the report before that by CBS' Dodd....all to the effect that expansion is very much still on the table....as well as the '16 tv contract negotiations, which is driving the timeline to get to 16 schools....it sure SEEMS that they're putting a lot of thought and energy into this issue. It could be that they are "inviting" a school/schools from the ACC/Big 12 to challenge the GORs, but I don't see that happening, at least in the present timeframe. So it's hard to see what is really going on.............
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mushroomgod, I hear what you're saying. I'm just Joe Blow speculating and I don't know anything. But I enjoy the speculating. Having said that...all the different people commenting may not be talking about the exact same thing. My guess and operating assumption is this: The Demigods of TV (and some influential college peeps) want FOUR power conferences. That leads to a nice, neat playoff picture and ka-ching, ka-ching. However, to accomplish that goal, one of the P5 has to go down and as a practical reality, that's very, very hard to do. College sports is built on tradition. Just because TV wants it, just because a school wants it, just because there's lots of dollars involved, doesn't mean it will happen. Administrators can't just ignore the alumni base and their state politics. However, unless and until we get to four power conferences, expansion is always going to be an ongoing issue.
That's a completely separate view of expansion from, say, expanding the B1G to 16 prior to the contract negotiations. That may ultimately work into a larger picture, but for now and for the B1G it's a question of "who can we add?" and "do they bring enough to the table either now or in the future?" With the GOR's in place, it's tough to see any adds that make financial sense. UConn's on the bubble, financially (Frank the Tank's got some great stuff on this, BTW) and would need a partner that's at least on the bubble.
In order to gain the financial traction necessary to justify an expansion in time for the 16 TV contract, it would have to be both big and doable--like Texas really having an out of the GOR. Depending on the Lonestar Network work around, that would add the whole state of Texas to the B1G and that would be enough to get both the networks and B1G presidents salivating.
And UConn would be SOL, because Texas would bring their dance partner, AAU or not.
I think the landscape is what it is for awhile. I don't think the B1G is going to add UConn and say, Buffalo, just because they can and it makes a nice even number. I think the B1G wants to grab market; I just don't think there's anyone viable. They'll wait out the GOR's. I may be wrong, but if they were going to 16 in time for the tv contract, they'd have announced it by now. Or it would have to be a couple of the "white whale" schools that will alter the landscape irrevocably, make the B1G Network a truly national network, and give the B1G a license to print money--like they don't have one already.
Realistically, I think if UConn is going to have a future in the B1G, it depends mightily on the relative stability of the P5. It's possible--not likely IMHO, but possible--that TV might be deep pocketed enough to buy out one school, Kansas say, to get the B1G to 16 with this contract. The Big 12 could backfill east, solving some of WVU's isolation and travel woes. Anything's possible, but I think the ultimate TV exec dream is P4 and playoff, not P5, and I just don't see that happening anytime soon. Expansion will be an ongoing dynamic and the rumor mill will continue to churn, whether it involves a couple of available spots in the B1G or going to P4.
(With my luck, they'll announce the major realignment of all conferences Monday. I probably should have checked with the Dude of WV or Tuxedo Yoda before I wrote this post.)
That's a completely separate view of expansion from, say, expanding the B1G to 16 prior to the contract negotiations. That may ultimately work into a larger picture, but for now and for the B1G it's a question of "who can we add?" and "do they bring enough to the table either now or in the future?" With the GOR's in place, it's tough to see any adds that make financial sense. UConn's on the bubble, financially (Frank the Tank's got some great stuff on this, BTW) and would need a partner that's at least on the bubble.
In order to gain the financial traction necessary to justify an expansion in time for the 16 TV contract, it would have to be both big and doable--like Texas really having an out of the GOR. Depending on the Lonestar Network work around, that would add the whole state of Texas to the B1G and that would be enough to get both the networks and B1G presidents salivating.
And UConn would be SOL, because Texas would bring their dance partner, AAU or not.
I think the landscape is what it is for awhile. I don't think the B1G is going to add UConn and say, Buffalo, just because they can and it makes a nice even number. I think the B1G wants to grab market; I just don't think there's anyone viable. They'll wait out the GOR's. I may be wrong, but if they were going to 16 in time for the tv contract, they'd have announced it by now. Or it would have to be a couple of the "white whale" schools that will alter the landscape irrevocably, make the B1G Network a truly national network, and give the B1G a license to print money--like they don't have one already.
Realistically, I think if UConn is going to have a future in the B1G, it depends mightily on the relative stability of the P5. It's possible--not likely IMHO, but possible--that TV might be deep pocketed enough to buy out one school, Kansas say, to get the B1G to 16 with this contract. The Big 12 could backfill east, solving some of WVU's isolation and travel woes. Anything's possible, but I think the ultimate TV exec dream is P4 and playoff, not P5, and I just don't see that happening anytime soon. Expansion will be an ongoing dynamic and the rumor mill will continue to churn, whether it involves a couple of available spots in the B1G or going to P4.
(With my luck, they'll announce the major realignment of all conferences Monday. I probably should have checked with the Dude of WV or Tuxedo Yoda before I wrote this post.)
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Agree with Fishy.
A few additional thoughts ...
The powers that be in the B1G and BTN, when discussing expansion of the conference, have continued to focus on the East coast even after the ACC GOR. Granted this in relation to welcoming Maryland and Rutgers to the B1G and bringing the B1G, as a 14 member league, to the East coast. However, the focus remains building a presence in the East coast.
Comments from ESPN's Adam Rittenberg after the ACC GOR ...
There are potentially attractive candidates in other regions like Missouri, but adding a member from anywhere other than the East Coast doesn't seem to click with Delany's bi-regional vision. The Big Ten is in the process of looking for a space for an East Coast office, most likely in New York. Delany noted Wednesday that the Big Ten has 1.2 million alumni living between Northern Virginia and New York. http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/76834/expansion-not-dead-but-not-b1gs-priority
Comments from Delany after the ACC GOR ...
"I can't speak for others, but we've been focused on making a home in a new region, making new members feel at home in this region," Delany said. "Everything we'll do competitively and in television and in bowls is to bring, as quickly as we can, a level of comfort. The Eastern corridor is ... the richest corridor in the world from the standpoint of financial institutions, political institutions, media institutions, and we're new to it. So if we can build relationships, make friends and be impactful and relevant over time, that's the goal.
"We're not going to be changing the world, but we are looking forward to doing everything we can to build a presence in that place."
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/76834/expansion-not-dead-but-not-b1gs-priority
I think for the time being the powers that be in the B1G and BTN believe this presence can be achieved by bringing Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska football and Indiana, Michigan State basketball to the region by way of Maryland and Rutgers. Of course, all of you have and can continue to better articulate than me how achieving a significant presence in New York and New England without additional universities from these areas will be a challenge especially with basketball given the new ACC line up and continued presence of the Big East.
I think further westward expansion of the B1G only occurs if Texas decides to join the B1G or possibly a Kansas/Oklahoma combination but GOR issues and ties with other schools in Texas/KSU/OSU make this difficult.
Despite the ACC GOR, it seems to me that the B1G is still focused on the East coast and that if and when further B1G expansion occurs, although likely not soon, universities in the East will remain a target. The casual B1G fan will clamor for a football add but, I suspect for Delany, Silverman and the B1G presidents, universities that provide academic excellence, commitment to research, population, and opportunities for other programming such as basketball, hockey and lacrosse will take precedent.
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Rutgers, if they continue along the line of their 49-14 pasting by Houston, may not be much of a draw for Big Ten fans...How many Ohio State or Michigan fans will spend money to travel to watch their team pound Rutgers versus travel to a Ohio State-Michigan Match..or Penn State-Ohio State, etc?
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They bring the same thing they do to the B1G, a state flagship university, just like most of the other schools in the SEC (UGA, Alabama, Mississippi, LSU, UF, UT, UK, Arkansas, USC). They are also in the geographic range of the SEC much more so than the B1G.
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I think the thought of Delany et al is not so much that Big Ten fans will travel from the states of Michigan or Ohio to watch their respective team against Maryland and Rutgers; rather it is that the Michigan and Ohio State alumni who already reside near Maryland and Rutgers will be drawn to the game.
There's enough local interest of Big Ten alums in NYC and DC to make the attendance figures work out - similar to how the current lower tier schools work out right now.
The only thing that will shake up expansion short term is if the Big 12 decides to expand to 12 but I doubt it happens. The Big 12 is most unstable out of the P5 and that's a mixed blessing for the Big Ten in that I do think that if the Big Ten pushed strongly it can shake off a few schools but the Big Ten would much rather take ACC schools over expanding Southwest (unless Texas joins, but probably not realistic)...and the ACC has proven to be more stable than expected.
The only thing that will shake up expansion short term is if the Big 12 decides to expand to 12 but I doubt it happens. The Big 12 is most unstable out of the P5 and that's a mixed blessing for the Big Ten in that I do think that if the Big Ten pushed strongly it can shake off a few schools but the Big Ten would much rather take ACC schools over expanding Southwest (unless Texas joins, but probably not realistic)...and the ACC has proven to be more stable than expected.
ctchamps
We are UConn!! 6 >>>1!
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You obviously don't have a gun to your head partner!
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Ski-U-Mah,
Those Black Swans you highlight are mostly unrealistic, but maybe JHU going d1 over many years in an array of sports. However, JHU would never aim for FBS.
These fantasies of adding Canadian universities are incredibly overstated on these boards, you are not alone. You should know your puck history - premier Canadian preps almost exclusively avoid CIS, so many better options: including going south and playing at American universities & minor leagues based in the US that are comparable or better than junior leagues. Most major CIS schools offer limited or no athletic scholarships, attendance is very low, esp for football, and last, but not least & absolutely crucial: there are plenty of FCS schools in the US that would cry foul if suddenly Canadian schools were upgraded to FBS status due to money grabbing, international media expansions. If CIS was interested in D1 level athletics, they would have made the necessary changes by now. As it stands now, there are at least 50 too many FBS schools & there are FCS schools with aims of going up, which is ridiculous. Please don't counter with the Simon Fraser argument - they play at the d2 or d3 level - a different animal.
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They also have a balance of strong sports traditions - around 20 NCAA titles. Let's also be honest here, Va has pretty damn good hs football & basketball. Why VPI nor UVa have yet to capitalize on this fact is beyond me.
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UNC might go to the SEC, if the ACC ever imploded. Which it won't for the life of the GOR, at least. The UNC Board of Governors might allow it, but, the NC General Assembly is not going to let UNC go anywhere without finding NC State a soft landing spot first.
Of course, the UNC administration might opt for the B1G, but, they'd face a backlash from the fanbase like they'd never seen in the history of the University.
While UVA fans might like the idea of the SEC, the UVA administration does not. They'd go to the B1G without a second thought.
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I believe that UConn is still in the ACC's future plans. Once the football schools are convinced that the potential revenues being missed by overlooking basketball are substantial, and, that UConn can drive them upwards, they will come around.
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For the most part I agree; but, 1) how much as Mizzo’s success on the football field in 2013 changed their minds, if at all, and 2) are there any ill feelings from Mizzo towards the B1G due to their prior snub?
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Mizzo makes sense in the ‘near term’ if the B1G needs to get to 16 schools for the next TV contract in 2015 and if the B1G had abandoned tit’s southeast expansion plan, i.e. UVA, UNC & G Tech out of the ACC, due to the GOR and now believes that the XII is conference most likely to collapse and wants a land bridge to Texas (or at least Oklahoma).
One question I have not seen raised is how would the SEC respond to the B1G luring Mizzo over? Would they seek revenge and go after a B1G team or simply shrug it off and add a school to get back to 14 (West Virginia, Louisville, etc.)?
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Let's be honest people. After this football season, we have a lot of work to do before any real conference will consider taking us in. A visit to the final four by both our basketball teams would help to minimize the damage (co-national championships would be even better!), but we really dug ourselves a deep hole this season and it will take time before we climb out of it.
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Nah. Look who the B1G took last time. Rutgers has never won anything and Maryland was in the midst of a 2 win season. It's all about potential future growth.
The Funster
What?
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I can't see Texas to the B1G for a couple of reasons. The first is that the B1G has made it pretty clear that all its members will be equal. For Texas to be equal, the LHN would have to be folded into the BTN. Also, since when has Texas wanted to be anyone's equal. Secondly, I remember seeing a direct quote from Delany where he stated that he never wanted, as part of his legacy, to be instrumental in the downfall of another conference. I cannot find it but he did state that shortly after the ACC poached the BE for the 2nd time. If Texas were to leave the Big 12, it would be the end of that conference.
I'm not sure what Delany is going to do. Remember, his decision to expand came about only because the scheduling alliance with the PAC fell through. Had the PAC not had conflicts that doomed that alliance I don't think Rutgers and MD would be in the B1G right now.
I'm not sure what Delany is going to do. Remember, his decision to expand came about only because the scheduling alliance with the PAC fell through. Had the PAC not had conflicts that doomed that alliance I don't think Rutgers and MD would be in the B1G right now.
HuskyHawk
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I do think the snub by the B1G will weigh on Missouri. They clearly preferred the Big Ten to the SEC. If you know antything about Mizzou, you would realize that it is pretty deeply connected to Chicago. They get a lot of kids from Chicago, always have. Plus St. Louis views itself as a little Chicago. The state of Missouri, has some southern connections, but those stem from Springfield and the Ozarks.
UVA and UNC aren't going anywhere. They correctly realized that they are in the demographic sweet spot and were best served shoring up the ACC rather than being after thoughts in the B1G. The ACC is likely to trend up, even in football, from here on out.
The only mover at this point is the Big 12, and they seem to be sitting tight, since UConn is pretty lousy fit for them. The ACC called that correctly, and effectively froze us and Cinci out by taking Louisville from the Big 12. If UConn got the ACC call, I think Cinci and UL are in the Big 12 at this point.
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UVA also brings Men's Soccer, Men's and Women's Lacrosse, Wrestling, Field Hockey, and Rowing that would be homeless in the Southeastern Conference. What conference would take these programs? All of UVA's athletic programs have a home and good competition in the ACC. UVA is not interested in the SEC. It is a step backwards as an athletic department to play with football factories. And it is a really big step backwards academically. I don't see it.
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UNC would have the same issue with the SEC that UVA would have, in fact worse because UNC sponsors more sports than UVA does with Fencing, Gymnastics, etc. I think the SEC sponsors Gymnastics. The SEC does not sponsor Men's Soccer, Men's and Women's Lacrosse, Field Hockey, Wrestling, or Rowing. The ACC sponsors all of these sports and will probably add Fencing now that Notre Dame is in.
I hope one of the negotiations for Division 4 will be to require the SEC to add sports. It makes sense for Alabama to lower Nick Sabon's salary from $7 million per year to $2 million per year and add Men's Soccer. Makes sense to me anyway. That conference is too rigged for football. I actually like the other sports too, and they will be what carry a television network.
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http://www.athleticscholarships.net...tions-propose-more-teams-and-scholarships.htm
"A group of 12 Division I coaches’ associations in such sports as soccer, volleyball, and swimming is urging the NCAA to increase the number of sports and the amount of financial aid a university would have to offer if it sought to join any new “super division” comprising the most-powerful institutions."
http://www.athleticscholarships.net...imum-would-impact-the-power-5-conferences.htm
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