Third and final top-16 reveal

[southie]

Very cool that the committee revealed not just the top 16 teams, but also their regions. And those placements worked out about as well as could have been imagined for the Huskies. There's a lot of talk on ESPN and here about whether Baylor can play their way into a #1 seed. But the committee has spoken, and Baylor has now beat Texas. Yes, either Louisville or Notre Dame is going to lose another game before selection Monday. But unless one of them loses to a team that is outside the top four, or Baylor loses to someone other than Texas in their remaining Big 12 play, one through five and their regions are already set. How glorious for UConn!

Was that by the committee? I thought that was solely Crème filling in the regionals (and making adjustments where necessary). Will have to go back and watch the recording.

 

[southie]

Well, it's not based on RPI alone. There wouldn't be a need for a committee if it went strictly by RPI. And Buffalo would be a top 16 seed ahead of South Carolina.

I understand that. But, trying to figure out what is bumping up South Carolina moreso than any other team (except for maybe Georgia). Conversely, Ohio State is being bumped down more than any other team; so, trying to figure that one out, as well.

 

[southie]

Their best wins are over Top 20 RPI teams Duke and Maryland.

They also have wins over #11 Missouri, plus Texas A&M and Georgia. Their loss to TN was without Wilson. Their loss to ND was a close one. If they win out against LSU and Tenn their resume will be solid.

Are they getting special treatment because they're National Champs or because of the injuries they've overcome or because the NCAA wouldn't make Cooper eligible? Maybe. But not much. They're the second best team in the fist or second best conference. I'd argue that Tennessee, Ohio State, Stanford and Maryland got more favorable treatment.

I don't think SC is getting any special treatment based on last season's championship.

I think the committee is rewarding them for something on their schedule. Perhaps the committee ignores a few non-conference games (for example, opponents where RPI is worse than say, #250); that would take SC's three worse non-conference games out of the equation. Then, they perhaps get a "bonus" since they are the only team who has played #1 UConn, #2 Notre Dame, and #3 Miss. State. SEC does have a lot of teams in the top 25 RPI, so those 2 games against Mizzou, plus games against Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M could be having a huge factor. Perhaps the committee is putting more weight on Top 25 RPI games played than the broader Top 50 RPI games.

 

[BostonCanuck]

Was that by the committee? I thought that was solely Crème filling in the regionals (and making adjustments where necessary). Will have to go back and watch the recording.

During the half-time report of the first game, ESPN did suggest that they had filled in the blanks themselves, but then I found this from Mechelle Voepel:

Committee reveals possible regionals for top 16

"This time, the committee not only included its projection of the top 16 seeds, but also the regionals the teams -- as of now -- would be placed in."
​

And now confirmed on the NCAA's own website:

Women's basketball Top 16 reveal: UConn, Mississippi State, Louisville and Notre Dame remain top seeds

 

[Plebe]

I understand that. But, trying to figure out what is bumping up South Carolina moreso than any other team (except for maybe Georgia). Conversely, Ohio State is being bumped down more than any other team; so, trying to figure that one out, as well.

SC has 7 top-50 wins, which is more than most other teams outside the top 6. And 5 of those 7 wins are over the RPI top 25. South Carolina also has no losses outside the top 15.

Just to choose one other team for point of contrast, UCLA has more top-50 wins (9) but most of those wins (7) are in the 26-50 range. UCLA also has a couple losses to teams outside the top 25.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Ok, I have a comment and a question.

ND has had a great season especially given all their injuries BUT with only 7 players, no point guard, limited front court depth and not great speed or cardiovascular training, I am not worried AT ALL about ND if we were to play them again. I just think what we learned, what they lost and how much better KLS is from that game, has me very comfortable and sleeping well if we were to face them.

Why are so many worried about ND?

I'd like to answer that @DefenseBB:

 

[ProSkeptic]

I have a question: does the committee take into account home vs. away games? A lot of the top teams (e.g., Tennessee, MSSU) played a lot their OOC games at home, while ND and UConn were evenly split between home and away. Seems to me it’s an important consideration, other things being more or less equal.

 

[LoTrader]

Eye Test, Smell Test...needs to be added to the selection process. Fortunately, this is not the final cut. With tournaments coming up, there should be some movement.

 

[Jim R]

Eye Test, Smell Test...needs to be added to the selection process. Fortunately, this is not the final cut. With tournaments coming up, there should be some movement.

Don't think Creme or the selection committee have lost their LV love. Lost five of their last ten games, and they're a three seed? Of course they are.

 

[LoTrader]

Don't think Creme or the selection committee have lost their LV love. Lost five of their last ten games, and they're a three seed? Of course they are.

Yes, doesn't pass the smell test. I might have stomached them as a 4 seed, but a 3 seed? Give me a break!

 

[Plebe]

I have a question: does the committee take into account home vs. away games? A lot of the top teams (e.g., Tennessee, MSSU) played a lot their OOC games at home, while ND and UConn were evenly split between home and away. Seems to me it’s an important consideration, other things being more or less equal.

I don't know if it's specifically listed among their criteria, but I do believe they are cognizant of it.

Also, the RPI formula has, since 2011 for women's basketball, weighted home and road games differently.

 

[Plebe]

Yes, doesn't pass the smell test. I might have stomached them as a 4 seed, but a 3 seed? Give me a break!

The problem is that all of the other teams that could have passed them in the seeding also suffered losses.* There is now a big drop-off between #10 and everyone else.

* Only Missouri, on the strength of the head-to-head win, was able to pass them for the #11 spot.

 

[LoTrader]

The problem is that all of the other teams that could have passed them in the seeding also suffered losses. There is now a big drop-off between #10 and everyone else.

Fortunately, Tennessee has more games (including the SEC Tournament).

 

[Plebe]

Fortunately, Tennessee has more games (including the SEC Tournament).

To be honest, I would be tickled as all get out to see them get demolished by Baylor in the Sweet 16. I hope that part of the bracket stays unchanged.

 

[Tonyc]

This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.

 

[stwainfan]

Fortunately, Tennessee has more games (including the SEC Tournament).

SECT starts on Feb. 28th.

 

[DefenseBB]

This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.

Fair enough, but who on ND can suffocate Wallace? That team is challenged defensively. They also don't have the size down low to contend with Brown, Cox, Cohen and Richards. They can score from the outside, which gives them a fighting chance but Westbeld, Koko, Shepard, Mabry are too slow to handle their guards. That leaves Arike who I am not sold as a defender and Jackie Young who is more accustomed as a wing. Now if they had Briana...

 

[DefenseBB]

SECT starts on Feb. 28th.

I hope you right the ship at Florida and at home against SC otherwise the toxic fumes from VolNation could eviscerate the state...

 

[Fightin Choke]

Baylor now has 8 top 25 wins and 10 top 50 wins according to Sagarin. Not too shabby. An undefeated Big 12 champ is a 1 seed, especially over a 3 loss ACC runner up.

Was Baylor's loss to UCLA disallowed?

Has it occurred to you that Baylor might have more losses if they had scheduled as aggressively as Notre Dame and Louisville did? I think it may have occurred to Kim because of that OOC schedule she created.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Baylor's OOC schedule with their current RPI (2/18) next to them, Lamar (108), Coppin St (299), Central Arkansas (119), UCLA (9), Missouri St (99), Georgia Tech (66), Kentucky (96), Standford (14), North Dakota (174), McNeese (266), and Nicholls (242). Average RPI is 135.6

Louisville's OOC schedule, South East Missouri St (222), Ohio St (7), Toledo (58), Michigan (47), Oregon (8), Murray St (297), Indiana (60), South Dakota St (32), Tenn Martin (192), Vandy (134), Tenn St (328), Middle Tenn (116), UK (96), Air Force (306), and UConn (1). Average RPI is 126.9

Mississippi State's OOC schedule, Virginia (35), Georgia St (315), So Miss (204), Arizona St (41), Columbia (212), Green Bay (12), LA-Lafayette (175), OK St (55), Ark-Little Rock (103), Oregon (8), Maine (82), UNLV (93), Syracuse (31), and Mississippi Valley St (338). Average RPI is 121.7

Notre Dame's OOC schedule, Mt Saint Mary's (288), Western Kentucky (46), Oregon St (39), East Tenn St (125), USF (22), South Carolina (16), Michigan (47), UConn (1), Michigan St (59), Penn (74), DePaul (28), and Marquette (30). Average RPI is 64.6

UConn's OCC schedule, Standford (14), California (36), Maryland (20), UCLA (9), Michigan St (59), Nevada (208), Notre Dame (2), DePaul (28), Oklahoma (23), Duquesne (62), Texas (10), South Carolina (16), and Louisville (4). Average RPI is 37.8

UConn had only one team out of the top 62 teams and that was Nevada, which was a game put together so that Gabby could play a homecoming game.

You left off Notre Dame's OOC game with Tennessee (10).

 

[Bear11]

Was Baylor's loss to UCLA disallowed?

Has it occurred to you that Baylor might have more losses if they had scheduled as aggressively as Notre Dame and Louisville did? I think it may have occurred to Kim because of that OOC schedule she created.

My point was mainly to rebut this ridiculous idea that Baylor only had 4 top 50 wins. I don't care what RPI says, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are top 50 teams, likely top 30. The narrative out there is that Baylor is untested, and that is not true. Maybe not tested to the same degree as Notre Dame, but this isn't a situation like Maryland the last couple years.

If Baylor had played Notre Dame's schedule, they would likely have 2-3 losses too, so we can say they are pretty even. The advanced metrics favor Baylor pretty strongly, so that's good enough for me. I realize the committee will go their own way, but I like our chances with pretty much anyone.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I have a question: does the committee take into account home vs. away games? A lot of the top teams (e.g., Tennessee, MSSU) played a lot their OOC games at home, while ND and UConn were evenly split between home and away. Seems to me it’s an important consideration, other things being more or less equal.

Notre Dame actually had more tough games away from home than in the friendly confines of Purcell Pavilion. Among the RPI top 25 opponents:

Home
10 Tennessee

Away:
1 UConn
4 Louiville
6 Florida State
13 Duke

Neutral:
17 South Carolina
22 South Florida

They also played @ Oregon State, but the Beavers are not top 25 in RPI.

Next year those ACC games will all be home games, so that's just the way it worked out this season. And the Huskies visit South Bend of course.

 

[Fightin Choke]

My point was mainly to rebut this ridiculous idea that Baylor only had 4 top 50 wins. I don't care what RPI says, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are top 50 teams, likely top 30. The narrative out there is that Baylor is untested, and that is not true. Maybe not tested to the same degree as Notre Dame, but this isn't a situation like Maryland the last couple years.

If Baylor had played Notre Dame's schedule, they would likely have 2-3 losses too, so we can say they are pretty even. The advanced metrics favor Baylor pretty strongly, so that's good enough for me. I realize the committee will go their own way, but I like our chances with pretty much anyone.

The advanced metrics use margin of victory (MOV), which the committee does not consider. While using MOV makes the model more predictive in picking winners, it also can be manipulated by running up huge margins against overmatched foes. I have seen the jump in Sagarin's and Massey's ratings when a good team scores a huge win (over 50 points) over a terrible foe. The effect is muted in Massey, but not in Sagarin. It was previously muted when Sagarin used ELO Chess as one of his measures (along with Predictor), but Golden Mean (its replacement) is also scored-based. Where the composite and thus overall rating was previously a hybrid of ELO Chess and Predictor, now it's primarily Predictor and Golden Mean with a small dose of Recent (also score-based) added in.

 

[Bear11]

The advanced metrics use margin of victory (MOV), which the committee does not consider. While using MOV makes the model more predictive in picking winners, it also can be manipulated by running up huge margins against overmatched foes. I have seen the jump in Sagarin's and Massey's ratings when a good team scores a huge win (over 50 points) over a terrible foe. The effect is muted in Massey, but not in Sagarin. It was previously muted when Sagarin used ELO Chess as one of his measures (along with Predictor), but Golden Mean (its replacement) is also scored-based. Where the composite and thus overall rating was previously a hybrid of ELO Chess and Predictor, now it's primarily Predictor and Golden Mean with a small dose of Recent (also score-based) added in.

I'm not arguing for the committee, I know they are slaves to the RPI and all its failings. I just think, and most here would agree, that Baylor is better than the 5th best team in the country regardless of what seed they are given. I just hope we prove it in March.

Any large effect from a single game in Sagarin must have been from early in the season, when each game has more impact. When Baylor slaughtered Texas earlier this year Massey and Sagarin didn't move significantly. If their stats say you should win by 50 and you do, it doesn't move the needle much. Even extreme results like the Louisville-Notre Dame game had limited effects in Sagarin and Massey, which both still favor Notre Dame.

 

[Plebe]

This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.

Baylor 2018 is a very different case than Maryland 2017.

Maryland last year had only one top-25 win, over Louisville, and blew its chance at a second top-25 win when they lost to Ohio State.

Baylor this year already has two top-10 wins over Texas plus an additional three top-25 wins on top of that. And they're likely to add a couple more before selection day.