Third and final top-16 reveal

[southie]

The article shows in a graphic the committee's ranking of teams 1-16. Louisville is #3 and Notre Dame #4.

Ranking does not always equal actual tournament seed.

 

[Plebe]

Ranking does not always equal actual tournament seed.

The committee's ranking is one thing. Geographical placement is another. This isn't about "seeding" per se, but about placement of teams into the bracket and at geographic sites.

 

[southie]

The committee's ranking is one thing. Geographical placement is another. This isn't about "seeding" per se, but about placement of teams into the bracket and at geographic sites.

But, geographic placement has a trickle down effect.

Two seasons ago, most pegged South Carolina as a shoe-in for the #1 seed in the Lexington regional; instead, the committee sent Notre Dame to Lexington, and South Carolina all the way to the Dakotas.

This season, they are doing the same things with Louisville and Oregon getting the geographic placement.

 

[Plebe]

But, geographic placement has a trickle down effect.

Two seasons ago, most pegged South Carolina as a shoe-in for the #1 seed in the Lexington regional; instead, the committee sent Notre Dame to Lexington, and South Carolina all the way to the Dakotas.

This season, they are doing the same things with Louisville and Oregon getting the geographic placement.

It's not at all surprising that Louisville was put at Lexington since the committee has them at #3 overall ahead of Notre Dame.

I just think it's eyebrow-raising that the committee decided to deviate from the S-curve, by putting #5 Baylor against #3 Louisville, in order to have #6 Oregon at Spokane, which is 460 miles away from Eugene.

 

[southie]

I can only assume the committee which selects Regional sites had their reason for selecting Spokane, WA. Perhaps they have had good ticket sales in the past (even if no home team is participating). Having Oregon there will help more than any other of the 16 seeded teams.

When the committee awarded Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals, I was dumbfounded. All I could come up with is that Kentucky had a couple of recent Elite 8 trips. Still, which other school has been awarded that advantage?

So, today, my rationale is that the committee figured if Kentucky wouldn't be in those home regionals, they had teams within reasonable driving distance such as Louisville, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee to possibly generate ticket sales. Low and behold, three of those four schools are pegged for Lexington next month. I believe Tennessee fans still travel well . . .

If the committee placed Oregon in Lexington opposite Louisville, then Baylor goes to Spokane opposite Notre Dame. That would have made sense to me other than Oregon not being kept out West. But, then the committee would have to bump more of the 3-line and 4-line seeds. Not sure if they use financial savings as rationale, but sending Tennessee and Ohio State to Lexington also avoids airfare travel costs, and they only pay to bus those teams to Lexington.

 

[Plebe]

I can only assume the committee which selects Regional sites had their reason for selecting Spokane, WA. Perhaps they have had good ticket sales in the past (even if no home team is participating). Having Oregon there will help more than any other of the 16 seeded teams.

When the committee awarded Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals, I was dumbfounded. All I could come up with is that Kentucky had a couple of recent Elite 8 trips. Still, which other school has been awarded that advantage?

So, today, my rationale is that the committee figured if Kentucky wouldn't be in those home regionals, they had teams within reasonable driving distance such as Louisville, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee to possibly generate ticket sales. Low and behold, three of those four schools are pegged for Lexington next month. I believe Tennessee fans still travel well . . .

If the committee placed Oregon in Lexington opposite Louisville, then Baylor goes to Spokane opposite Notre Dame. That would have made sense to me other than Oregon not being kept out West. But, then the committee would have to bump more of the 3-line and 4-line seeds. Not sure if they use financial savings as rationale, but sending Tennessee and Ohio State to Lexington also avoids airfare travel costs, and they only pay to bus those teams to Lexington.

The committee definitely has a preference for keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles).

 

[triaddukefan]

The committee definitely has a preference for keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles).

Thats some garbage..... and that darn S curve......Im still a bit perturbed about 2011

 

[Vowelguy]

Rankings line up with the S-curve seeds very well, give or take the procedural bumps to avoid conference matchups:

Not exactly. The S-curve is the intent, but there are many reasons why it doesn't end up that way. Conference matchups yes, but also geography. The committee is not going to put #6 Oregon in Lexington and #5 Baylor in Spokane just to maintain S-curve purity. Similarly with #7 So Carolina and #8 Texas given that the Gamecocks have been sent far away from home the past 2 years.

The committee will make deviations from the S-curve so long as it does not appreciably change the strength of the brackets. One thing I've heard they have done is they will add up the rankings of each team in the top 4 to make sure no one bracket is stronger/weaker. At pure S-curve, each region should add up to 34.

The bracket specified last night:
Albany = 33
Lexington = 33
KC = 34
Spokane = 36

Pretty close.
I might've swapped Georgia with Ohio St, which would then make it 33/35/34/34, but Ohio St is so close to Lexington.

 

[Vowelguy]

Thats some garbage..... and that darn S curve.Im still a bit perturbed about 2011

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[nwhoopfan]

I do not want to hear any whining from a Baylor fan, or anyone on behalf of Baylor, about location and/or having to play another team somewhat near their campus and geographical fan base. Baylor has definitely had the benefit of that in recent years, so whatever.

I really don't see much difference between 350 or 460 miles. Driving distance means something different out West than it does in the East. Oregon and Washington are bordering states, it's seems pretty clear why the committee would prefer to have Oregon in Spokane. I think some Duck fans will find their way there. What would be interesting is to see whether local fans were supportive of Coach Graves, or feeling a bit bitter still after his leaving Spokane.

 

[southie]

Not exactly. The S-curve is the intent, but there are many reasons why it doesn't end up that way. Conference matchups yes, but also geography. The committee is not going to put #6 Oregon in Lexington and #5 Baylor in Spokane just to maintain S-curve purity. Similarly with #7 So Carolina and #8 Texas given that the Gamecocks have been sent far away from home the past 2 years.

Not sure I'm following you. South Carolina was bumped down to avoid being the #2 seed in KC with the #1 seed Miss. State, both in the SEC. Don't think it had anything do with them having been sent to regionals in South Dakota and California the last two seasons. I think Dawn would rather be pegged for Spokane, WA to Albany, NY . . .

 

[blacklisted]

Baylor's OOC schedule with their current RPI (2/18) next to them, Lamar (108), Coppin St (299), Central Arkansas (119), UCLA (9), Missouri St (99), Georgia Tech (66), Kentucky (96), Standford (14), North Dakota (174), McNeese (266), and Nicholls (242). Average RPI is 135.6

Louisville's OOC schedule, South East Missouri St (222), Ohio St (7), Toledo (58), Michigan (47), Oregon (8), Murray St (297), Indiana (60), South Dakota St (32), Tenn Martin (192), Vandy (134), Tenn St (328), Middle Tenn (116), UK (96), Air Force (306), and UConn (1). Average RPI is 126.9

Mississippi State's OOC schedule, Virginia (35), Georgia St (315), So Miss (204), Arizona St (41), Columbia (212), Green Bay (12), LA-Lafayette (175), OK St (55), Ark-Little Rock (103), Oregon (8), Maine (82), UNLV (93), Syracuse (31), and Mississippi Valley St (338). Average RPI is 121.7

Notre Dame's OOC schedule, Mt Saint Mary's (288), Western Kentucky (46), Oregon St (39), East Tenn St (125), USF (22), South Carolina (16), Michigan (47), UConn (1), Michigan St (59), Penn (74), DePaul (28), and Marquette (30), Tenn (10). Average RPI is 60.3

UConn's OCC schedule, Standford (14), California (36), Maryland (20), UCLA (9), Michigan St (59), Nevada (208), Notre Dame (2), DePaul (28), Oklahoma (23), Duquesne (62), Texas (10), South Carolina (16), and Louisville (4). Average RPI is 37.8

UConn had only one team out of the top 62 teams and that was Nevada, which was a game put together so that Gabby could play a homecoming game.

Well, I guess it's a good thing they consider the entire schedule, not just the OOC. I can certainly understand, however, why you would want to hyper-focus on OOC RPI.

I would add it's telling how, with UConn's OOC being so much more challenging than Miss State's, that ultimately, your overall RPI is just 2 spots higher than ours. UConn is clearly a national powerhouse, worthy of the ranking and all the hype, but Good Lord, your conference is terrible, pretty much requiring you to schedule so many top teams OOC.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not sure I'm following you. South Carolina was bumped down to avoid being the #2 seed in KC with the #1 seed Miss. State, both in the SEC. Don't think it had anything do with them having been sent to regionals in South Dakota and California the last two seasons. I think Dawn would rather be pegged for Spokane, WA to Albany, NY . . .

They were not "bumped down".
The S-Curve is NOT mandatory. They are the #7 team, and were slotted to face the #1 team. No more, no less.

The only "procedural bumps" are when teams are moved up or down a SEED line.

 

[MD#12Fan]

Maryland slated to play Mississippi in the regional semis.
Let me hear from you Maryland haters now.
Go Huskies!

 

[southie]

They were not "bumped down".
The S-Curve is NOT mandatory. They are the #7 team, and were slotted to face the #1 team. No more, no less.

The only "procedural bumps" are when teams are moved up or down a SEED line.

So, why do you think the committee made that move? It was not geography-driven. It was based on them being in the same conference as Miss. State. Granted there were 5 SEC teams in the Top 16. So, two had to be placed in the same regional (Mizzou and Georgia). But, the committee was not going to place the two strongest SEC teams (a 1 and 2 seed) in the same regional based on their guidelines.

I'm certainly not an expert on the terms, but South Carolina was "moved" to what most what consider the #8 national seed opposite #1 national seed UConn.

 

[Plebe]

So, why do you think the committee made that move? It was not geography-driven. It was based on them being in the same conference as Miss. State. Granted there were 5 SEC teams in the Top 16. So, two had to be placed in the same regional (Mizzou and Georgia). But, the committee was not going to place the two strongest SEC teams (a 1 and 2 seed) in the same regional based on their guidelines.

I'm certainly not an expert on the terms, but South Carolina was "moved" to what most what consider the #8 national seed opposite #1 national seed UConn.

I think this is just a semantics issue. When the committee deviates from the S-curve to avoid conference conflicts or for geographical reasons (among other reasons), it doesn't change the fact that (for example) Baylor is still the overall #5 seed and South Carolina is still the overall #7. As vowelguy said, the "bump" only happens when a team is moved up or down an entire seed line, but this rarely happens among the top four seed lines.

In the case of South Carolina, I do believe you're right that the main reason for deviating from the S-curve to put South Carolina at Albany was to avoid the conference conflict with Mississippi State.

 

[blacklisted]

Maryland slated to play Mississippi in the regional semis.
Let me hear from you Maryland haters now.
Go Huskies!

FYI - Mississippi is our rival, Ole Miss. We are Mississippi State. Ole Miss, aka Mississippi is the armpit of SEC WBB.

 

[MD#12Fan]

FYI - Mississippi is our rival, Ole Miss. We are Mississippi State. Ole Miss, aka Mississippi is the armpit of SEC WBB.

You knew I meant Mississippi State!! That's why you're blacklisted!

 

[Fightin Choke]

When the committee awarded Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals, I was dumbfounded. All I could come up with is that Kentucky had a couple of recent Elite 8 trips. Still, which other school has been awarded that advantage?

Have you seen UConn's regional sites the past seven years? At least Lexington is driving distance for a bunch of schools with good basketball programs. But honestly, what other good teams are within driving distance of UConn's sites the past few years (Maryland is over 5 hours from all these sites)? And UConn fans dominate the attendance in these arenas, further adding to the advantage that UConn doesn't really need.

2018 Albany (132 miles, 2 hours 15 minutes)
2017 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes and another site for UConn home games)
2016 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes)
2015 Albany (132 miles, 2 hours 15 minutes)
2014 Lincoln Nebraska (1419 miles 21 hours, need to fly)
2013 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes)
2012 Kingston (55 miles, 1 hour 29 minutes)

For contrast, during this span, here are Notre Dame's regionals:
2018 ??, but either Lexington (326 miles but very doubtful), Kansas City (578 miles), or Spokane (1880 miles)
2017 Lexington (5 hours 13 minutes 326 miles)
2016 Lexington (5 hours 13 minutes 326 miles)
2015 Oklahoma City, OK (12 hours, 50 minutes 862 miles) Got to play 31-3 B12 champ Baylor in regional final
2014 South Bend (home site no distance at all)
2013 Norfolk VA (12 hours 6 minutes, 796 miles)
2012 Raleigh, NC (12 hours 2 minures, 728 miles)

 

[JoePgh]

Have you seen UConn's regional sites the past seven years? At least Lexington is driving distance for a bunch of schools with good basketball programs. But honestly, what other good teams are within driving distance of UConn's sites the past few years (Maryland is over 5 hours from all these sites)? And UConn fans dominate the attendance in these arenas, further adding to the advantage that UConn doesn't really need.

2018 Albany (132 miles, 2 hours 15 minutes)
2017 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes and another site for UConn home games)
2016 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes)
2015 Albany (132 miles, 2 hours 15 minutes)
2014 Lincoln Nebraska (1419 miles 21 hours, need to fly)
2013 Bridgeport (78 miles, 1 hour 18 minutes)
2012 Kingston (55 miles, 1 hour 29 minutes)

For contrast, during this span, here are Notre Dame's regionals:
2018 ??, but either Lexington (326 miles but very doubtful), Kansas City (578 miles), or Spokane (1880 miles)
2017 Lexington (5 hours 13 minutes 326 miles)
2016 Lexington (5 hours 13 minutes 326 miles)
2015 Oklahoma City, OK (12 hours, 50 minutes 862 miles) Got to play 31-3 B12 champ Baylor in regional final
2014 South Bend (home site no distance at all)
2013 Norfolk VA (12 hours 6 minutes, 796 miles)
2012 Raleigh, NC (12 hours 2 minures, 728 miles)

Well, it certainly helps to be the #1 overall seed, as UConn was in most if not all of those years. By NCAA rules, the overall top seed gets the location closest itself, with no possibility of being bumped. Notre Dame would get the same treatment if it were able to earn the #1 overall seed.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Well, it certainly helps to be the #1 overall seed, as UConn was in most if not all of those years. By NCAA rules, the overall top seed gets the location closest itself, with no possibility of being bumped. Notre Dame would get the same treatment if it were able to earn the #1 overall seed.

Perhaps I did not make my main point very clear. For 6 of the past 7 seasons, UConn has had a regional site practically in their backyard. That is, no other good program was any closer to the site than Maryland at 5-6 hours away, so their was no competition for the spot. In fact, in even if ND has their pick of sites the past 7 seasons, the closest sites would still be at least 5 hours away 3 of the 7 years (Lexington, all 3 years) and not within driving distance 3 more of the years (Norfolk, Raleigh, and Greensboro/Oklahoma City) and only once was it local (South Bend). Notre Dame (31-1) was the second 1-seed in 2014 and still got sent to the distant Norfolk site (796 miles) while UConn (29-4) as the third 1-seed got sent to Bridgeport (78 miles).

 

[UConnCat]

Perhaps I did not make my main point very clear. For 6 of the past 7 seasons, UConn has had a regional site practically in their backyard. That is, no other good program was any closer to the site than Maryland at 5-6 hours away, so their was no competition for the spot. In fact, in even if ND has their pick of sites the past 7 seasons, the closest sites would still be at least 5 hours away 3 of the 7 years (Lexington, all 3 years) and not within driving distance 3 more of the years (Norfolk, Raleigh, and Greensboro/Oklahoma City) and only once was it local (South Bend). Notre Dame (31-1) was the second 1-seed in 2014 and still got sent to the distant Norfolk site (796 miles) while UConn (29-4) as the third 1-seed got sent to Bridgeport (78 miles).

Don't fret. With the new Wintrust arena now available the city of Chicago will host a regional in 2019. Notre Dame will of course be sent there. And in 2020 I see where Fort Wayne, Indiana will host a regional. I suspect Notre Dame will be sent there as well. Clearly the NCAA heard the Notre Dame complaints.

 

[Tonyc]

If Im the NCAA committee I want to put fannies in the seats and that means where I can draw the most people and UConn Tenn S Carolina etc need to host regionals for that to happen. So all this crap about UConn having regionals in their backyard is about money and promotion of the game and if you want the regionals in your back yard then your team needs to be a draw. If they arent then your going to play someplace that does draw fans of an opponent. I can bet Albany which is a couple of hours from UConn is almost sold out at ticket prices higher then in most places. Heck in Bridgeport it was over $35 a ticket and $20 to park. Bridgeport sold out in a couple of days before anyone knew but did suspect UConn would be playing in Bridgeport. The NCAA is holding a National Championship and they need to be able to finance it so they are going to hold the regionals in places that will make the most money. Having UConn close to home will do that. Hold the National Championship Final Four in NY or Hartford would sell out at any price if UConn was in the running. IMO if I were the NCAA committee I would hold the NC at MSG in New York and charge $50 a ticket and UConn being number 1 that game would sell out before the pairing were announced and I would by a block of tickets down front half court.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Don't fret. With the new Wintrust arena now available the city of Chicago will host a regional in 2019. Notre Dame will of course be sent there. And in 2020 I see where Fort Wayne, Indiana will host a regional. I suspect Notre Dame will be sent there as well. Clearly the NCAA heard the Notre Dame complaints.

Personally, I would prefer that regionals would be at a fixed location, such as Las Vegas, so there would be no real home court advantage in the regionals. But would the fans flock there for regionals?

 

[triaddukefan]

Well this thread took a turn

Hold the National Championship Final Four in NY or Hartford would sell out at any price if UConn was in the running. IMO if I were the NCAA committee I would hold the NC at MSG in New York and charge $50 a ticket and UConn being number 1 that game would sell out before the pairing were announced and I would by a block of tickets down front half court.

Good thing you're not in charge

 

[Fightin Choke]

If Im the NCAA committee I want to put fannies in the seats and that means where I can draw the most people and UConn Tenn S Carolina etc need to host regionals for that to happen. So all this crap about UConn having regionals in their backyard is about money and promotion of the game and if you want the regionals in your back yard then your team needs to be a draw. If they arent then your going to play someplace that does draw fans of an opponent. I can bet Albany which is a couple of hours from UConn is almost sold out at ticket prices higher then in most places. Heck in Bridgeport it was over $35 a ticket and $20 to park. Bridgeport sold out in a couple of days before anyone knew but did suspect UConn would be playing in Bridgeport. The NCAA is holding a National Championship and they need to be able to finance it so they are going to hold the regionals in places that will make the most money. Having UConn close to home will do that. Hold the National Championship Final Four in NY or Hartford would sell out at any price if UConn was in the running. IMO if I were the NCAA committee I would hold the NC at MSG in New York and charge $50 a ticket and UConn being number 1 that game would sell out before the pairing were announced and I would by a block of tickets down front half court.

I think holding the FF in NY would be incredibly unfair, as UConn would have a huge advantage in fans. Doesn't competitive balance matter at all to you? Does the NCAA really make any money on women's basketball? I would think that while it would be dull for teams to play in an empty arena, the NCAA losing money already on WBB and thus should at least hold the FF in somewhat neutral locations (or at least rotate the site if you want NYC one year).

 

[UConnCat]

Personally, I would prefer that regionals would be at a fixed location, such as Las Vegas, so there would be no real home court advantage in the regionals. But would the fans flock there for regionals?

I agree.

Vegas sounds like heaven when compared to spending a long weekend in Fort Wayne or Albany.

 

[UConnCat]

I think holding the FF in NY would be incredibly unfair, as UConn would have a huge advantage in fans. Doesn't competitive balance matter at all to you? Does the NCAA really make any money on women's basketball? I would think that while it would be dull for teams to play in an empty arena, the NCAA losing money already on WBB and thus should at least hold the FF in somewhat neutral locations (or at least rotate the site if you want NYC one year).

More unfair than Indianapolis?

The women's FF will never be held in NYC, btw.

 

[Fightin Choke]

More unfair than Indianapolis?

The women's FF will never be held in NYC, btw.

Hey, you have me on record for Las Vegas for regionals. I don't think Indianapolis is fair (or fun). Neither is Columbus. New Orleans seems pretty neutral, as long as LSU and Miss St. are not there!

 

[MSGRET]

Well, I guess it's a good thing they consider the entire schedule, not just the OOC. I can certainly understand, however, why you would want to hyper-focus on OOC RPI.

I would add it's telling how, with UConn's OOC being so much more challenging than Miss State's, that ultimately, your overall RPI is just 2 spots higher than ours. UConn is clearly a national powerhouse, worthy of the ranking and all the hype, but Good Lord, your conference is terrible, pretty much requiring you to schedule so many top teams OOC.

UConn has ALWAYS played a strong OOC schedule since the early 1990's. When the Big East was formed the other conferences put them down just like they have the AAC. The AAC continues to improve and I believe they will be in line with what the Big East was a few years ago before the Presidents of the non-football schools decided to have a basketball only conference.