Third and final top-16 reveal

[Plebe]

One aspect of the reveal that I haven't heard much comment on is the geographical placement of the high #2 seeds.

Specifically, the committee deviated from the true S-curve in placing Oregon (#6 overall) in Spokane with #4 Notre Dame, while pitting #5 overall Baylor against #3 Louisville in Lexington.

I'm guessing this was based on a desire to keep Oregon on the west coast?

 

[Vowelguy]

This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule.

Not exactly the same thing. Maryland had the problem of a weak non-conf AND conf schedule. They played just 4 teams in the final AP top 25 and went 2-2 and had no top 10 victories (W #14 @Lou, #25 Mich / L #1 UConn, #12 @Oh St). You could easily argue that any top 10 team could do what MD did.

Baylor's record against the current top 25: 5-1 (#6 Texas x2, #25 Okl St x2, #16 Stanf & L to #10 @UCLA).
Not enough to dislodge ND or likely Lou, but still much better than MD 2017.

 

[DallasBUFan]

This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.

That is not true. They pass really well, very efficient. However, Texas did their home work and they disrupted it. Even the announcers noted how they were surprised about how bad they passing was, because Baylor is super efficient. BU would put pressure on Mabrey (spelling) just like they would on Wallace. What would their answer be for the rest of the team. Most smaller post get into foul trouble against Kalani.

ND would be a great game I would like to see.

 

[southie]

Baylor's record against the current top 25: 5-1 (#6 Texas x2, #25 Okl St x2, #16 Stanf & L to #10 @UCLA).

The committee does NOT use the AP Top 25 for its criteria. Oklahoma State has dropped to #55 in RPI. UCLA is #9 RPI and Texas is #11 RPI and Stanford is #15 RPI. So, at the moment, Baylor haze ZERO victories over a Top 10 RPI team. But, two wins over Texas who the committee had ranked at #8 prior to the loss to Baylor.

 

[southie]

Baylor 2018 is a very different case than Maryland 2017.

Maryland last year had only one top-25 win, over Louisville, and blew its chance at a second top-25 win when they lost to Ohio State.

Baylor this year already has two top-10 wins over Texas plus an additional three top-25 wins on top of that. And they're likely to add a couple more before selection day.

They finish the season with #71 TCU and #67 West Virginia. So, that won't help their RPI much.

Victories over OU and Texas could possibly help Baylor's resume, come tournament time, but probably not. OU (assuming they lose at Texas in the season finale) probably won't be Top 25 RPI as they also have #113 Iowa State and #227 Texas Tech as their next couple of games.

 

[MSGRET]

You left off Notre Dame's OOC game with Tennessee (10).

Thanks, I added Tenn and it improved the avg from 64.6 to 60.3.

 

[Plebe]

They finish the season with #71 TCU and #67 West Virginia. So, that won't help their RPI much.

Victories over OU and Texas could possibly help Baylor's resume, come tournament time, but probably not. OU (assuming they lose at Texas in the season finale) probably won't be Top 25 RPI as they also have #113 Iowa State and #227 Texas Tech as their next couple of games.

Baylor at this point doesn’t need to improve its RPI. It just needs some quality wins. Another win over Texas would be significant. Another win over Oklahoma would help as well (even if OK finishes outside the RPI top 25).

As for Oklahoma State and West Virginia, I’m sure the committee is aware that they are undervalued in the RPI. OkSt is safely in the tournament IMO despite its low RPI, and WV is a bubble team.

The main point is that Baylor’s resume is nowhere near as weak as Maryland's was last year. Maryland was the overall #9 on selection day while Baylor is already at #5.

 

[Vowelguy]

The committee does NOT use the AP Top 25 for its criteria.

Yes and no. Yes, it is not on their official list. However, the RPI is not the be-all end-all. It is just one more piece of information. They look at the overall quality of performance, good wins, bad losses, etc.
Nowhere is this clearer than the top 16 the committee announced last night. It is more highly correlated with the AP than the RPI. So, no I was not saying the committee uses the AP. BUT the AP does provide a pretty good representation of the quality teams.

Oklahoma State has dropped to #55 in RPI. UCLA is #9 RPI and Texas is #11 RPI and Stanford is #15 RPI. So, at the moment, Baylor haze ZERO victories over a Top 10 RPI team. But, two wins over Texas who the committee had ranked at #8 prior to the loss to Baylor.

Uh, forest for the trees. The committee top 16 is WAY more valuable as an indicator than the RPI. Baylor is 3-1 against the most recent top 16. Much better than Maryland's 1-2 last year.

 

[Vowelguy]

Records against Top 16/Rest

1. UConn . 6-0 / 24-0
2. Miss St 4-0 / 24-0
3. Louisvl 3-2 / 24-0
4. N Dame. 3-2 / 22-0
5. Baylor. 3-1 / 22-0
6. Oregon. 2-3 / 22-1
7. So Caro 3-5 / 19-0
8. Texas . 2-4 / 19-0
9. Fla St. 1-2 / 21-2
10. UCLA .. 2-4 / 19-1
11. Mssouri 2-3 / 20-2
12. Tenn .. 4-3 / 17-3
13. Ohio St 2-2 / 20-4
14. Mryland 1-2 / 21-3
15. Georgia 1-3 / 20-2
16. Stnford 2-5 / 17-4

 

[southie]

One aspect of the reveal that I haven't heard much comment on is the geographical placement of the high #2 seeds.

Specifically, the committee deviated from the true S-curve in placing Oregon (#6 overall) in Spokane with #4 Notre Dame, while pitting #5 overall Baylor against #3 Louisville in Lexington.

I'm guessing this was based on a desire to keep Oregon on the west coast?

Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.

Granted, Notre Dame has been the #1 seed in Lexington, KY regional the last two tournaments (still bugs me that UK was awarded three consecutive regionals); perhaps their fans haven't traveled well and the committee wants ticket sales and figures Louisville fans will do better in that area.

And, as you noted, it keeps Oregon out West; not convinced their fans will travel to Spokane, but I guess the committee wants at least one "regional" team in there.

Baylor is the team that gets the short end of the stick, IMO. Having to potentially play Louisville in front of a partisan Cardinal fan in the state of Kentucky. Plus, Notre Dame has a much shorter bench than Louisville. I guess Louisville fans might not be too happy about having Baylor in their draw, but at least they play close to home.

1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
5. Baylor
6. Oregon
7. South Carolina
8. Texas
9. Florida State
10. UCLA
11. Missouri
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State
14. Maryland
15. Georgia
16. Stanford

Regional Assignments

Albany:
1. UConn
2. South Carolina (bumped down from #7 to #8 to avoid having the top 2 seeds in Kansas City from the SEC )
3. Florida State
4. Stanford

Kansas City:
1. Mississippi State
2. Texas (bumped up from #8 to #7 to avoid having both SC & Miss. State in Kansas City)
3. UCLA
4. Maryland (bumped down from #14 to #15 to avoid a potential Georgia/Miss. State round of 16 matchup in Kansas City)

Lexington:
1. Louisville (bumped down from #3 to #4 to sell tickets in Lexington)
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee (helps ticket sales in Lexington)
4. Ohio State (helps ticket sales in Lexington)

Spokane:
1. Notre Dame (bumped up from #4 to #3)
2. Oregon (helps ticket sales in Spokane)
3. Missouri
4. Georgia (bumped up from #15 to #14 to not be in the same Regional as SEC #2 seed Miss. State)

 

[Plebe]

Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.

That's not how the committee announced the rankings yesterday: Baylor's placement in Lexington is a win

 

[southie]

That's not how the committee announced the rankings yesterday: Baylor's placement in Lexington is a win

That article is from Crème. Am I missing some direct quotes from the committee about their rationale?

 

[DallasBUFan]

Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.

Granted, Notre Dame has been the #1 seed in Lexington, KY regional the last two tournaments (still bugs me that UK was awarded three consecutive regionals); perhaps their fans haven't traveled well and the committee wants ticket sales and figures Louisville fans will do better in that area.

And, as you noted, it keeps Oregon out West; not convinced their fans will travel to Spokane, but I guess the committee wants at least one "regional" team in there.

Baylor is the team that gets the short end of the stick, IMO. Having to potentially play Louisville in front of a partisan Cardinal fan in the state of Kentucky. Plus, Notre Dame has a much shorter bench than Louisville. I guess Louisville fans might not be too happy about having Baylor in their draw, but at least they play close to home.

1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
5. Baylor
6. Oregon
7. South Carolina
8. Texas
9. Florida State
10. UCLA
11. Missouri
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State
14. Maryland
15. Georgia
16. Stanford

Regional Assignments

Albany:
1. UConn
2. South Carolina (bumped down from #7 to #8 to avoid having the top 2 seeds in Kansas City from the SEC )
3. Florida State
4. Stanford

Kansas City:
1. Mississippi State
2. Texas (bumped up from #8 to #7 to avoid having both SC & Miss. State in Kansas City)
3. UCLA
4. Maryland (bumped down from #14 to #15 to avoid a potential Georgia/Miss. State round of 16 matchup in Kansas City)

Lexington:
1. Louisville (bumped down from #3 to #4 to sell tickets in Lexington)
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee (helps ticket sales in Lexington)
4. Ohio State (helps ticket sales in Lexington)

Spokane:
1. Notre Dame (bumped up from #4 to #3)
2. Oregon (helps ticket sales in Spokane)
3. Missouri
4. Georgia (bumped up from #15 to #14 to not be in the same Regional as SEC #2 seed Miss. State)

Looking at the seeding, I kinda like the bracket. Some very interesting matchups.

Albany- Not really anything that great. Maybe Stanford can make it interesting. Otherwise...UConn

Kansas City: Mississippi State vs Texas....Miss State is a lot like BU and Texas has already faced them twice and possibly a third time in the tourney. So it will be like facing BU for the fourth time. Could be an upset.....maybe

Lexington- Louisville vs BU.....BU the stronger team (IMO) but in Louisville territory.

Spokane- Notre Dame vs a rough Mizzou team that is feisty and could put them in foul trouble. Also, Georgia and it's press, oh and don't forget about Oregon. This bracket is the most even.

 

[Plebe]

That article is from Crème. Am I missing some direct quotes from the committee about their rationale?

The article shows in a graphic the committee's ranking of teams 1-16. Louisville is #3 and Notre Dame #4.

 

[southie]

Rankings line up with the S-curve seeds very well, give or take the procedural bumps to avoid conference matchups:

Albany:
1. UConn
8. South Carolina (ranking is #7)
9. Florida State
16. Stanford

Kansas City:
2. Mississippi State
7. Texas (ranking is #8)
10. UCLA
15. Maryland (ranking is #14)

Lexington:
4. Louisville (ranking is #3)
5. Baylor
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State

Spokane:
3. Notre Dame (ranking is #4)
6. Oregon
11. Missouri
14. Georgia (ranking is #15)

 

[southie]

The article shows in a graphic the committee's ranking of teams 1-16. Louisville is #3 and Notre Dame #4.

Ranking does not always equal actual tournament seed.

 

[Plebe]

Ranking does not always equal actual tournament seed.

The committee's ranking is one thing. Geographical placement is another. This isn't about "seeding" per se, but about placement of teams into the bracket and at geographic sites.

 

[southie]

The committee's ranking is one thing. Geographical placement is another. This isn't about "seeding" per se, but about placement of teams into the bracket and at geographic sites.

But, geographic placement has a trickle down effect.

Two seasons ago, most pegged South Carolina as a shoe-in for the #1 seed in the Lexington regional; instead, the committee sent Notre Dame to Lexington, and South Carolina all the way to the Dakotas.

This season, they are doing the same things with Louisville and Oregon getting the geographic placement.

 

[Plebe]

But, geographic placement has a trickle down effect.

Two seasons ago, most pegged South Carolina as a shoe-in for the #1 seed in the Lexington regional; instead, the committee sent Notre Dame to Lexington, and South Carolina all the way to the Dakotas.

This season, they are doing the same things with Louisville and Oregon getting the geographic placement.

It's not at all surprising that Louisville was put at Lexington since the committee has them at #3 overall ahead of Notre Dame.

I just think it's eyebrow-raising that the committee decided to deviate from the S-curve, by putting #5 Baylor against #3 Louisville, in order to have #6 Oregon at Spokane, which is 460 miles away from Eugene.

 

[southie]

I can only assume the committee which selects Regional sites had their reason for selecting Spokane, WA. Perhaps they have had good ticket sales in the past (even if no home team is participating). Having Oregon there will help more than any other of the 16 seeded teams.

When the committee awarded Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals, I was dumbfounded. All I could come up with is that Kentucky had a couple of recent Elite 8 trips. Still, which other school has been awarded that advantage?

So, today, my rationale is that the committee figured if Kentucky wouldn't be in those home regionals, they had teams within reasonable driving distance such as Louisville, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee to possibly generate ticket sales. Low and behold, three of those four schools are pegged for Lexington next month. I believe Tennessee fans still travel well . . .

If the committee placed Oregon in Lexington opposite Louisville, then Baylor goes to Spokane opposite Notre Dame. That would have made sense to me other than Oregon not being kept out West. But, then the committee would have to bump more of the 3-line and 4-line seeds. Not sure if they use financial savings as rationale, but sending Tennessee and Ohio State to Lexington also avoids airfare travel costs, and they only pay to bus those teams to Lexington.

 

[Plebe]

I can only assume the committee which selects Regional sites had their reason for selecting Spokane, WA. Perhaps they have had good ticket sales in the past (even if no home team is participating). Having Oregon there will help more than any other of the 16 seeded teams.

When the committee awarded Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals, I was dumbfounded. All I could come up with is that Kentucky had a couple of recent Elite 8 trips. Still, which other school has been awarded that advantage?

So, today, my rationale is that the committee figured if Kentucky wouldn't be in those home regionals, they had teams within reasonable driving distance such as Louisville, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee to possibly generate ticket sales. Low and behold, three of those four schools are pegged for Lexington next month. I believe Tennessee fans still travel well . . .

If the committee placed Oregon in Lexington opposite Louisville, then Baylor goes to Spokane opposite Notre Dame. That would have made sense to me other than Oregon not being kept out West. But, then the committee would have to bump more of the 3-line and 4-line seeds. Not sure if they use financial savings as rationale, but sending Tennessee and Ohio State to Lexington also avoids airfare travel costs, and they only pay to bus those teams to Lexington.

The committee definitely has a preference for keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles).

 

[triaddukefan]

The committee definitely has a preference for keeping teams within "driving distance" (defined as 350 miles).

Thats some garbage..... and that darn S curve......Im still a bit perturbed about 2011

 

[Vowelguy]

Rankings line up with the S-curve seeds very well, give or take the procedural bumps to avoid conference matchups:

Not exactly. The S-curve is the intent, but there are many reasons why it doesn't end up that way. Conference matchups yes, but also geography. The committee is not going to put #6 Oregon in Lexington and #5 Baylor in Spokane just to maintain S-curve purity. Similarly with #7 So Carolina and #8 Texas given that the Gamecocks have been sent far away from home the past 2 years.

The committee will make deviations from the S-curve so long as it does not appreciably change the strength of the brackets. One thing I've heard they have done is they will add up the rankings of each team in the top 4 to make sure no one bracket is stronger/weaker. At pure S-curve, each region should add up to 34.

The bracket specified last night:
Albany = 33
Lexington = 33
KC = 34
Spokane = 36

Pretty close.
I might've swapped Georgia with Ohio St, which would then make it 33/35/34/34, but Ohio St is so close to Lexington.

 

[Vowelguy]

Thats some garbage..... and that darn S curve.Im still a bit perturbed about 2011

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[nwhoopfan]

I do not want to hear any whining from a Baylor fan, or anyone on behalf of Baylor, about location and/or having to play another team somewhat near their campus and geographical fan base. Baylor has definitely had the benefit of that in recent years, so whatever.

I really don't see much difference between 350 or 460 miles. Driving distance means something different out West than it does in the East. Oregon and Washington are bordering states, it's seems pretty clear why the committee would prefer to have Oregon in Spokane. I think some Duck fans will find their way there. What would be interesting is to see whether local fans were supportive of Coach Graves, or feeling a bit bitter still after his leaving Spokane.