Third and final top-16 reveal | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Third and final top-16 reveal

ProSkeptic said:
I have a question: does the committee take into account home vs. away games? A lot of the top teams (e.g., Tennessee, MSSU) played a lot their OOC games at home, while ND and UConn were evenly split between home and away. Seems to me it’s an important consideration, other things being more or less equal.
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I don't know if it's specifically listed among their criteria, but I do believe they are cognizant of it.

Also, the RPI formula has, since 2011 for women's basketball, weighted home and road games differently.
 
LOTRADER said:
Yes, doesn't pass the smell test. I might have stomached them as a 4 seed, but a 3 seed? Give me a break!
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The problem is that all of the other teams that could have passed them in the seeding also suffered losses.* There is now a big drop-off between #10 and everyone else.

* Only Missouri, on the strength of the head-to-head win, was able to pass them for the #11 spot.
 
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Plebe said:
The problem is that all of the other teams that could have passed them in the seeding also suffered losses. There is now a big drop-off between #10 and everyone else.
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Fortunately, Tennessee has more games (including the SEC Tournament).
 
LOTRADER said:
Fortunately, Tennessee has more games (including the SEC Tournament).
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To be honest, I would be tickled as all get out to see them get demolished by Baylor in the Sweet 16. I hope that part of the bracket stays unchanged.
 
This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.
 
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Tonyc said:
This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.
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Fair enough, but who on ND can suffocate Wallace? That team is challenged defensively. They also don't have the size down low to contend with Brown, Cox, Cohen and Richards. They can score from the outside, which gives them a fighting chance but Westbeld, Koko, Shepard, Mabry are too slow to handle their guards. That leaves Arike who I am not sold as a defender and Jackie Young who is more accustomed as a wing. Now if they had Briana...:rolleyes:
 
Bear11 said:
Baylor now has 8 top 25 wins and 10 top 50 wins according to Sagarin. Not too shabby. An undefeated Big 12 champ is a 1 seed, especially over a 3 loss ACC runner up.
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Was Baylor's loss to UCLA disallowed?

Has it occurred to you that Baylor might have more losses if they had scheduled as aggressively as Notre Dame and Louisville did? I think it may have occurred to Kim because of that OOC schedule she created.
 
MSGRET said:
Baylor's OOC schedule with their current RPI (2/18) next to them, Lamar (108), Coppin St (299), Central Arkansas (119), UCLA (9), Missouri St (99), Georgia Tech (66), Kentucky (96), Standford (14), North Dakota (174), McNeese (266), and Nicholls (242). Average RPI is 135.6

Louisville's OOC schedule, South East Missouri St (222), Ohio St (7), Toledo (58), Michigan (47), Oregon (8), Murray St (297), Indiana (60), South Dakota St (32), Tenn Martin (192), Vandy (134), Tenn St (328), Middle Tenn (116), UK (96), Air Force (306), and UConn (1). Average RPI is 126.9

Mississippi State's OOC schedule, Virginia (35), Georgia St (315), So Miss (204), Arizona St (41), Columbia (212), Green Bay (12), LA-Lafayette (175), OK St (55), Ark-Little Rock (103), Oregon (8), Maine (82), UNLV (93), Syracuse (31), and Mississippi Valley St (338). Average RPI is 121.7

Notre Dame's OOC schedule, Mt Saint Mary's (288), Western Kentucky (46), Oregon St (39), East Tenn St (125), USF (22), South Carolina (16), Michigan (47), UConn (1), Michigan St (59), Penn (74), DePaul (28), and Marquette (30). Average RPI is 64.6

UConn's OCC schedule, Standford (14), California (36), Maryland (20), UCLA (9), Michigan St (59), Nevada (208), Notre Dame (2), DePaul (28), Oklahoma (23), Duquesne (62), Texas (10), South Carolina (16), and Louisville (4). Average RPI is 37.8

UConn had only one team out of the top 62 teams and that was Nevada, which was a game put together so that Gabby could play a homecoming game.
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You left off Notre Dame's OOC game with Tennessee (10).
 
Fightin Choke said:
Was Baylor's loss to UCLA disallowed?

Has it occurred to you that Baylor might have more losses if they had scheduled as aggressively as Notre Dame and Louisville did? I think it may have occurred to Kim because of that OOC schedule she created.
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My point was mainly to rebut this ridiculous idea that Baylor only had 4 top 50 wins. I don't care what RPI says, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are top 50 teams, likely top 30. The narrative out there is that Baylor is untested, and that is not true. Maybe not tested to the same degree as Notre Dame, but this isn't a situation like Maryland the last couple years.

If Baylor had played Notre Dame's schedule, they would likely have 2-3 losses too, so we can say they are pretty even. The advanced metrics favor Baylor pretty strongly, so that's good enough for me. I realize the committee will go their own way, but I like our chances with pretty much anyone.
 
ProSkeptic said:
I have a question: does the committee take into account home vs. away games? A lot of the top teams (e.g., Tennessee, MSSU) played a lot their OOC games at home, while ND and UConn were evenly split between home and away. Seems to me it’s an important consideration, other things being more or less equal.
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Notre Dame actually had more tough games away from home than in the friendly confines of Purcell Pavilion. Among the RPI top 25 opponents:

Home
10 Tennessee

Away:
1 UConn
4 Louiville
6 Florida State
13 Duke

Neutral:
17 South Carolina
22 South Florida

They also played @ Oregon State, but the Beavers are not top 25 in RPI.

Next year those ACC games will all be home games, so that's just the way it worked out this season. And the Huskies visit South Bend of course.
 
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Bear11 said:
My point was mainly to rebut this ridiculous idea that Baylor only had 4 top 50 wins. I don't care what RPI says, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are top 50 teams, likely top 30. The narrative out there is that Baylor is untested, and that is not true. Maybe not tested to the same degree as Notre Dame, but this isn't a situation like Maryland the last couple years.

If Baylor had played Notre Dame's schedule, they would likely have 2-3 losses too, so we can say they are pretty even. The advanced metrics favor Baylor pretty strongly, so that's good enough for me. I realize the committee will go their own way, but I like our chances with pretty much anyone.
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The advanced metrics use margin of victory (MOV), which the committee does not consider. While using MOV makes the model more predictive in picking winners, it also can be manipulated by running up huge margins against overmatched foes. I have seen the jump in Sagarin's and Massey's ratings when a good team scores a huge win (over 50 points) over a terrible foe. The effect is muted in Massey, but not in Sagarin. It was previously muted when Sagarin used ELO Chess as one of his measures (along with Predictor), but Golden Mean (its replacement) is also scored-based. Where the composite and thus overall rating was previously a hybrid of ELO Chess and Predictor, now it's primarily Predictor and Golden Mean with a small dose of Recent (also score-based) added in.
 
Fightin Choke said:
The advanced metrics use margin of victory (MOV), which the committee does not consider. While using MOV makes the model more predictive in picking winners, it also can be manipulated by running up huge margins against overmatched foes. I have seen the jump in Sagarin's and Massey's ratings when a good team scores a huge win (over 50 points) over a terrible foe. The effect is muted in Massey, but not in Sagarin. It was previously muted when Sagarin used ELO Chess as one of his measures (along with Predictor), but Golden Mean (its replacement) is also scored-based. Where the composite and thus overall rating was previously a hybrid of ELO Chess and Predictor, now it's primarily Predictor and Golden Mean with a small dose of Recent (also score-based) added in.
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I'm not arguing for the committee, I know they are slaves to the RPI and all its failings. I just think, and most here would agree, that Baylor is better than the 5th best team in the country regardless of what seed they are given. I just hope we prove it in March.

Any large effect from a single game in Sagarin must have been from early in the season, when each game has more impact. When Baylor slaughtered Texas earlier this year Massey and Sagarin didn't move significantly. If their stats say you should win by 50 and you do, it doesn't move the needle much. Even extreme results like the Louisville-Notre Dame game had limited effects in Sagarin and Massey, which both still favor Notre Dame.
 
Tonyc said:
This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.
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Baylor 2018 is a very different case than Maryland 2017.

Maryland last year had only one top-25 win, over Louisville, and blew its chance at a second top-25 win when they lost to Ohio State.

Baylor this year already has two top-10 wins over Texas plus an additional three top-25 wins on top of that. And they're likely to add a couple more before selection day.
 
One aspect of the reveal that I haven't heard much comment on is the geographical placement of the high #2 seeds.

Specifically, the committee deviated from the true S-curve in placing Oregon (#6 overall) in Spokane with #4 Notre Dame, while pitting #5 overall Baylor against #3 Louisville in Lexington.

I'm guessing this was based on a desire to keep Oregon on the west coast?
 
Tonyc said:
This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule.
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Not exactly the same thing. Maryland had the problem of a weak non-conf AND conf schedule. They played just 4 teams in the final AP top 25 and went 2-2 and had no top 10 victories (W #14 @Lou, #25 Mich / L #1 UConn, #12 @Oh St). You could easily argue that any top 10 team could do what MD did.

Baylor's record against the current top 25: 5-1 (#6 Texas x2, #25 Okl St x2, #16 Stanf & L to #10 @UCLA).
Not enough to dislodge ND or likely Lou, but still much better than MD 2017.
 
Tonyc said:
This happened to Maryland last season. Same thing. Great record easy schedule. The committee wont have that. If Baylor gets a 1 seed Maryland will go crazy because of what happened to them last season. Barring anything crazy happening. Its UConn Miss St Lville ND Baylor . IMO ND has a great shot at beating Baylor. You suffacate Wallace and Baylor will have problems because they do not have good passing and Baylor bigs can not handle the ball away from the basket.
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That is not true. They pass really well, very efficient. However, Texas did their home work and they disrupted it. Even the announcers noted how they were surprised about how bad they passing was, because Baylor is super efficient. BU would put pressure on Mabrey (spelling) just like they would on Wallace. What would their answer be for the rest of the team. Most smaller post get into foul trouble against Kalani.

ND would be a great game I would like to see.
 
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vowelguy said:
Baylor's record against the current top 25: 5-1 (#6 Texas x2, #25 Okl St x2, #16 Stanf & L to #10 @UCLA).
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The committee does NOT use the AP Top 25 for its criteria. Oklahoma State has dropped to #55 in RPI. UCLA is #9 RPI and Texas is #11 RPI and Stanford is #15 RPI. So, at the moment, Baylor haze ZERO victories over a Top 10 RPI team. But, two wins over Texas who the committee had ranked at #8 prior to the loss to Baylor.
 
Plebe said:
Baylor 2018 is a very different case than Maryland 2017.

Maryland last year had only one top-25 win, over Louisville, and blew its chance at a second top-25 win when they lost to Ohio State.

Baylor this year already has two top-10 wins over Texas plus an additional three top-25 wins on top of that. And they're likely to add a couple more before selection day.
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They finish the season with #71 TCU and #67 West Virginia. So, that won't help their RPI much.

Victories over OU and Texas could possibly help Baylor's resume, come tournament time, but probably not. OU (assuming they lose at Texas in the season finale) probably won't be Top 25 RPI as they also have #113 Iowa State and #227 Texas Tech as their next couple of games.
 
southie said:
They finish the season with #71 TCU and #67 West Virginia. So, that won't help their RPI much.

Victories over OU and Texas could possibly help Baylor's resume, come tournament time, but probably not. OU (assuming they lose at Texas in the season finale) probably won't be Top 25 RPI as they also have #113 Iowa State and #227 Texas Tech as their next couple of games.
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Baylor at this point doesn’t need to improve its RPI. It just needs some quality wins. Another win over Texas would be significant. Another win over Oklahoma would help as well (even if OK finishes outside the RPI top 25).

As for Oklahoma State and West Virginia, I’m sure the committee is aware that they are undervalued in the RPI. OkSt is safely in the tournament IMO despite its low RPI, and WV is a bubble team.

The main point is that Baylor’s resume is nowhere near as weak as Maryland's was last year. Maryland was the overall #9 on selection day while Baylor is already at #5.
 
southie said:
The committee does NOT use the AP Top 25 for its criteria.
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Yes and no. Yes, it is not on their official list. However, the RPI is not the be-all end-all. It is just one more piece of information. They look at the overall quality of performance, good wins, bad losses, etc.
Nowhere is this clearer than the top 16 the committee announced last night. It is more highly correlated with the AP than the RPI. So, no I was not saying the committee uses the AP. BUT the AP does provide a pretty good representation of the quality teams.


Oklahoma State has dropped to #55 in RPI. UCLA is #9 RPI and Texas is #11 RPI and Stanford is #15 RPI. So, at the moment, Baylor haze ZERO victories over a Top 10 RPI team. But, two wins over Texas who the committee had ranked at #8 prior to the loss to Baylor.
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Uh, forest for the trees. The committee top 16 is WAY more valuable as an indicator than the RPI. Baylor is 3-1 against the most recent top 16. Much better than Maryland's 1-2 last year.
 
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Records against Top 16/Rest
  1. UConn . 6-0 / 24-0
  2. Miss St 4-0 / 24-0
  3. Louisvl 3-2 / 24-0
  4. N Dame. 3-2 / 22-0
  5. Baylor. 3-1 / 22-0
  6. Oregon. 2-3 / 22-1
  7. So Caro 3-5 / 19-0
  8. Texas . 2-4 / 19-0
  9. Fla St. 1-2 / 21-2
  10. UCLA .. 2-4 / 19-1
  11. Mssouri 2-3 / 20-2
  12. Tenn .. 4-3 / 17-3
  13. Ohio St 2-2 / 20-4
  14. Mryland 1-2 / 21-3
  15. Georgia 1-3 / 20-2
  16. Stnford 2-5 / 17-4

 
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Plebe said:
One aspect of the reveal that I haven't heard much comment on is the geographical placement of the high #2 seeds.

Specifically, the committee deviated from the true S-curve in placing Oregon (#6 overall) in Spokane with #4 Notre Dame, while pitting #5 overall Baylor against #3 Louisville in Lexington.

I'm guessing this was based on a desire to keep Oregon on the west coast?
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Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.

Granted, Notre Dame has been the #1 seed in Lexington, KY regional the last two tournaments (still bugs me that UK was awarded three consecutive regionals); perhaps their fans haven't traveled well and the committee wants ticket sales and figures Louisville fans will do better in that area.

And, as you noted, it keeps Oregon out West; not convinced their fans will travel to Spokane, but I guess the committee wants at least one "regional" team in there.

Baylor is the team that gets the short end of the stick, IMO. Having to potentially play Louisville in front of a partisan Cardinal fan in the state of Kentucky. Plus, Notre Dame has a much shorter bench than Louisville. I guess Louisville fans might not be too happy about having Baylor in their draw, but at least they play close to home.
  1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
  2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
  3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
  4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
  5. Baylor
  6. Oregon
  7. South Carolina
  8. Texas
  9. Florida State
  10. UCLA
  11. Missouri
  12. Tennessee
  13. Ohio State
  14. Maryland
  15. Georgia
  16. Stanford

Regional Assignments

Albany:
1. UConn
2. South Carolina (bumped down from #7 to #8 to avoid having the top 2 seeds in Kansas City from the SEC )
3. Florida State
4. Stanford

Kansas City:
1. Mississippi State
2. Texas (bumped up from #8 to #7 to avoid having both SC & Miss. State in Kansas City)
3. UCLA
4. Maryland (bumped down from #14 to #15 to avoid a potential Georgia/Miss. State round of 16 matchup in Kansas City)

Lexington:
1. Louisville (bumped down from #3 to #4 to sell tickets in Lexington)
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee (helps ticket sales in Lexington)
4. Ohio State (helps ticket sales in Lexington)

Spokane:
1. Notre Dame (bumped up from #4 to #3)
2. Oregon (helps ticket sales in Spokane)
3. Missouri
4. Georgia (bumped up from #15 to #14 to not be in the same Regional as SEC #2 seed Miss. State)
 
southie said:
Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.
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That's not how the committee announced the rankings yesterday: Baylor's placement in Lexington is a win
 
southie said:
Looks to me as if the committee bumped Louisville down to #4 and Notre Dame up to #3, while Baylor stayed at #5 and Oregon stayed at #6. Not a fan of this type of move as it really comprises the integrity of the bracket.

Granted, Notre Dame has been the #1 seed in Lexington, KY regional the last two tournaments (still bugs me that UK was awarded three consecutive regionals); perhaps their fans haven't traveled well and the committee wants ticket sales and figures Louisville fans will do better in that area.

And, as you noted, it keeps Oregon out West; not convinced their fans will travel to Spokane, but I guess the committee wants at least one "regional" team in there.

Baylor is the team that gets the short end of the stick, IMO. Having to potentially play Louisville in front of a partisan Cardinal fan in the state of Kentucky. Plus, Notre Dame has a much shorter bench than Louisville. I guess Louisville fans might not be too happy about having Baylor in their draw, but at least they play close to home.
  1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
  2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
  3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
  4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
  5. Baylor
  6. Oregon
  7. South Carolina
  8. Texas
  9. Florida State
  10. UCLA
  11. Missouri
  12. Tennessee
  13. Ohio State
  14. Maryland
  15. Georgia
  16. Stanford

Regional Assignments

Albany:
1. UConn
2. South Carolina (bumped down from #7 to #8 to avoid having the top 2 seeds in Kansas City from the SEC )
3. Florida State
4. Stanford

Kansas City:
1. Mississippi State
2. Texas (bumped up from #8 to #7 to avoid having both SC & Miss. State in Kansas City)
3. UCLA
4. Maryland (bumped down from #14 to #15 to avoid a potential Georgia/Miss. State round of 16 matchup in Kansas City)

Lexington:
1. Louisville (bumped down from #3 to #4 to sell tickets in Lexington)
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee (helps ticket sales in Lexington)
4. Ohio State (helps ticket sales in Lexington)

Spokane:
1. Notre Dame (bumped up from #4 to #3)
2. Oregon (helps ticket sales in Spokane)
3. Missouri
4. Georgia (bumped up from #15 to #14 to not be in the same Regional as SEC #2 seed Miss. State)
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Looking at the seeding, I kinda like the bracket. Some very interesting matchups.

Albany- Not really anything that great. Maybe Stanford can make it interesting. Otherwise...UConn

Kansas City: Mississippi State vs Texas....Miss State is a lot like BU and Texas has already faced them twice and possibly a third time in the tourney. So it will be like facing BU for the fourth time. Could be an upset.....maybe

Lexington- Louisville vs BU.....BU the stronger team (IMO) but in Louisville territory.

Spokane- Notre Dame vs a rough Mizzou team that is feisty and could put them in foul trouble. Also, Georgia and it's press, oh and don't forget about Oregon. This bracket is the most even.
 
southie said:
That article is from Crème. Am I missing some direct quotes from the committee about their rationale?
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The article shows in a graphic the committee's ranking of teams 1-16. Louisville is #3 and Notre Dame #4.
 
Rankings line up with the S-curve seeds very well, give or take the procedural bumps to avoid conference matchups:

Albany:
1. UConn
8. South Carolina (ranking is #7)
9. Florida State
16. Stanford

Kansas City:
2. Mississippi State
7. Texas (ranking is #8)
10. UCLA
15. Maryland (ranking is #14)

Lexington:
4. Louisville (ranking is #3)
5. Baylor
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State

Spokane:
3. Notre Dame (ranking is #4)
6. Oregon
11. Missouri
14. Georgia (ranking is #15)
 
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