The House case

[CL82]

I very much agree with your last sentence, it seems as though despite the on-court successes of UConn (and previously Villanova), the league has failed to gain any major traction in viewership growth outside of specific UConn related pockets. The OTA numbers for non-UConn games on FOX are bad and the FS1 numbers are even worse.

Speaking of the media deal, FOX exclusive window ended a month ago and we haven’t heard squat. I am guessing they’ll re-up with FOX (reduced # of games) and some other partners given we haven’t heard about them taking their primary rights to the open market but we will see what it means from a $ and exposure standpoint. The FLO sports type deals need to end- and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peacock or another streamer engaged for some MBB to also absorb some of the non-revenue sport games too

Exchanging revenue for visibility was Aresco's plan in the American. It didn't work out great.

I will say the Big East is in a difficult position. Having the majority of games on FS1 and FS2 means that the ratings are going to be bad on them. But, if we move to ESPN, then a significant amount of those games are going to end up on plus. Even if Ackerman were to double the existing deal, which would be a homerun, it still isn't a meaningful number compared to P4 money. The fact that there wasn't a agreement during the exclusive negotiation period leads me to believe that the number will be less than that.

Connecticut's only way out of that box is to move to a P* conference, which I don't see happening absent the collapse of the ACC and even then it would likely be to a diminished ACC.

 

[Drew]

Exchanging revenue for visibility was Aresco's plan in the American. It didn't work out great.

I will say the Big East is in a difficult position. Having the majority of games on FS1 and FS2 means that the ratings are going to be bad on them. But, if we move to ESPN, then a significant amount of those games are going to end up on plus. Even if Ackerman were to double the existing deal, which would be a homerun, it still isn't a meaningful number compared to P4 money. The fact that there wasn't a agreement during the exclusive negotiation period leads me to believe that the number will be less than that.

Connecticut's only way out of that box is to move to a P* conference, which I don't see happening absent the collapse of the ACC and even then it would likely be to a diminished ACC.

Even the diminished ACC is just the OBE reformed. Getting to play Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, etc again would be awesome. And we would make 3x+ money. Still a no brainer.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Damned if she speaks - damned if she doesn’t. It’s all theatre - they have no leverage.

Walk me through why the Big East has no legal leverage.

 

[huskymedic]

Walk me through why the Big East has no legal leverage.

Folks can sue for anything… walk me through what the successful outcome will be - a few less dollars withheld that will wash w/ the legal fees?

 

[CL82]

Even the diminished ACC is just the OBE reformed. Getting to play Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, etc again would be awesome. And we would make 3x+ money. Still a no brainer.

Agree. Although three times our current media money is 12 million. A vast improvement, but it still doesn't get us out of the box. It just moves us to a nicer box.

 

[Kolumbo]

Exchanging revenue for visibility was Aresco's plan in the American. It didn't work out great.

I will say the Big East is in a difficult position. Having the majority of games on FS1 and FS2 means that the ratings are going to be bad on them. But, if we move to ESPN, then a significant amount of those games are going to end up on plus. Even if Ackerman were to double the existing deal, which would be a homerun, it still isn't a meaningful number compared to P4 money. The fact that there wasn't a agreement during the exclusive negotiation period leads me to believe that the number will be less than that.

Connecticut's only way out of that box is to move to a P* conference, which I don't see happening absent the collapse of the ACC and even then it would likely be to a diminished ACC.

I guess exchanging revenue for visibility didn't work out great, but the AAC was the best of the G5 which is all it could hope for. And it probably helped Cinci, Houston and UCF get the call-ups.

Wouldn't bankruptcy be the way to go for the NCAA? Forgive all debts and reorganize, or something.

 

[Drew]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I guess exchanging revenue for visibility didn't work out great, but the AAC was the best of the G5 which is all it could hope for. And it probably helped Cinci, Houston and UCF get the call-ups.

Wouldn't bankruptcy be the way to go for the NCAA? Forgive all debts and reorganize, or something.

Bankruptcy wouldn't be possible considering the contract in place for the men's basketball tournament. There is more than sufficient projected future earnings to cover the debts that will arise from this.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Exchanging revenue for visibility was Aresco's plan in the American. It didn't work out great.

I will say the Big East is in a difficult position. Having the majority of games on FS1 and FS2 means that the ratings are going to be bad on them. But, if we move to ESPN, then a significant amount of those games are going to end up on plus. Even if Ackerman were to double the existing deal, which would be a homerun, it still isn't a meaningful number compared to P4 money. The fact that there wasn't a agreement during the exclusive negotiation period leads me to believe that the number will be less than that.

Connecticut's only way out of that box is to move to a P* conference, which I don't see happening absent the collapse of the ACC and even then it would likely be to a diminished ACC.

We are approaching a major inflection point and we had better be far more prepared than we were 21, 13 and 11 years ago (fortunately it appears we are).

One item that many are ignoring is that if it weren't for what Nova did in the first half dozen years after the split and what we've done the past couple, it would be very easy for the P-whatever to push the BE out and relegate the conference (both financially and in the public eye) to second tier status.

 

[noeynox]

Not a heck of a lot, other than vocally opposing it. The heat she's taking is a consequence of her slow and tepid response to Big East teams being given the short shrift in this year's NCAA selection and our mediocre, at best, conference media deal. One could argue that she doesn't have much leverage there either, but having ready justifications for poor performances in areas doesn't improve them and certainly doesn't make them more tolerable.

She needs a success somewhere.

Medicore at best TV deal? No other non FB sponsoring league is anywhere close.

 

[pepband99]

Medicore at best TV deal? No other non FB sponsoring league is anywhere close.

Who is our non power conference comp? They shouldn’t be anywhere close.

Given collective performance vs anyone deemed a peer, we likely should be worth more.

 

[CL82]

Medicore at best TV deal? No other non FB sponsoring league is anywhere close.

I guess it depends on your viewpoint.

If you measure yourself against the weakest of your competition, the odds are pretty favorable that you'll be better than them. While that's potentially comforting, I guess, it doesn't change the reality that the teams which we view as our competition are making roughly 10 times what the average big east team earns in media revenue, minimally, with the best making nearly 20 times that.

So when we are losing coaches and top players to P2 teams, and, in all likelihood, eventually excluded from competing at the highest level of college athletics, I guess some might take comfort in the fact that the big east "makes the most of the non-football conferences." I won't be one of them.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The P4 definitely do NOT want to go to court again, because the next ass-kicking they receive could be really historic.

 

[noeynox]

I guess it depends on your viewpoint.

If you measure yourself against the weakest of your competition, the odds are pretty favorable that you'll be better than them. While that's potentially comforting, I guess, it doesn't change the reality that the teams which we view as our competition are making roughly 10 times what the average big east team earns in media revenue, minimally, with the best making nearly 20 times that.

So when we are losing coaches and top players to P2 teams, and, in all likelihood, eventually excluded from competing at the highest level of college athletics, I guess some might take comfort in the fact that the big east "makes the most of the non-football conferences." I won't be one of them.

You gotta compare apples to apples.

I don't like that UConn isn't a P4 league. That's not Val Ackerman's fault. AAC schools get more TV money than UConn, but we would rather still be in the Big East. If anything, that shows you the discrepancy between FB and BB value in the eyes of those that pay for those products. I thought Yormark was on the mark last year when he tried getting UConn into the Big12. His school presidents were not convinced.

 

[CL82]

You gotta compare apples to apples.

I don't like that UConn isn't a P4 league. That's not Val Ackerman's fault. AAC schools get more TV money than UConn, but we would rather still be in the Big East. If anything, that shows you the discrepancy between FB and BB value in the eyes of those that pay for those products. I thought Yormark was on the mark last year when he tried getting UConn into the Big12. His school presidents were not convinced.

I disagree. The relevant comparison isn't where we are now, the relevant comparison is who are we competing against. No prospective player, or prospective coach, will care about our tale of conference reassignment woe or that we are currently in a non-football conference. They will care whether we can advance their interest better than other schools. Their interest will include compensation, either via NIL opportunities for players or by salaries for coaches, whether or not we have top facilities, and whether or not we provide them with a vehicle for advancement.

So, saying, well we make about $.10 on the dollar in distributions compared to the worst p* conference, but we do better than "any non-football playing conference" doesn't change the analysis one bit for those individuals. Whether it is a self soothing narrative for fans really doesn't matter.

 

[noeynox]

The P4 definitely do NOT want to go to court again, because the next ass-kicking they receive could be really historic.

"This is neither right nor fair. It’s the Power 5 making up the rules as they go along, and it’s the NCAA doing what the NCAA has done for decades — cowering to schools like Ohio State and Texas, and taking it out on the likes of Southern Indiana and Purdue Fort Wayne."

This the crux of the argument. The other 27 will let the P5 screw them over, out of fear of the P5 breaking off. Its an abusive relationship. The numbers in that article are insane.

 

[noeynox]

I disagree. The relevant comparison isn't where we are now, the relevant comparison is who are we competing against. No prospective player, or prospective coach, will care about our tale of conference reassignment woe or that we are currently in a non-football conference. They will care whether we can advance their interest better than other schools. Their interest will include compensation, either via NIL opportunities for players or by salaries for coaches, whether or not we have top facilities, and whether or not we provide them with a vehicle for advancement.

So, saying, well we make about $.10 on the dollar in distributions compared to the worst p* conference, but we do better than "any non-football playing conference" doesn't change the analysis one bit for those individuals. Whether it is a self soothing narrative for fans really doesn't matter.

If you can find someone to pay more for the Big East and close the gap on the P5 (most of whose value comes from FB) you would be better than Val Ackerman at her job. The reality is that other than UConn and maybe a fading Villanova what does she have to sell that people are tripping over themselves to buy and put on TV? The 4 day Big East Tournament maybe? Marquette and Creighton are fun but their distant 2nds in their own state in terms of interest. I don't see the meat on the bone that you do.

 

[CL82]

If you can find someone to pay more for the Big East and close the gap on the P5 (most of whose value comes from FB) you would be better than Val Ackerman at her job. The reality is that other than UConn and maybe a fading Villanova what does she have to sell that people are tripping over themselves to buy and put on TV? The 4 day Big East Tournament maybe? Marquette and Creighton are fun but their distant 2nds in their own state in terms of interest. I don't see the meat on the bone that you do.

Lol. That's a strawman argument.

You questioned labeling of the big east media deal as "mediocre at best" in defended your position by saying that it must be judged as being the best of the "non-football player conferences." I pointed out that that distinction is meaningless in the economics of the marketplace.

Whether I "would be better at the commissioner job than Val" commentary is a meaningless non-argument.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[noeynox]

Lol. That's a strawman argument.

You questioned labeling of the big east media deal as "mediocre at best" in defended your position by saying that it must be judged as being the best of the "non-football player conferences." I pointed out that that distinction is meaningless in the economics of the marketplace.

Whether I "would be better at the commissioner job than Val" commentary is a meaningless non-argument.

If you ask the people Depaul, Georgetown, and Butler if they think the TV contract Ackerman delivered is mediocre i don't think they will agree with you.

You are looking at this through UConn glasses. Most of the fans of the other schools are thrilled with the TV contract i bet since they don't have to worry about funding football.

I'm not arguing anything. No one is closing the gap between the Big East and the P5. You only need to see the P2 distancing themselves within that group to understand it is only going to get worse not better for the Big East.

 

[CL82]

You only need to see the P2 distancing themselves within that group to understand it is only going to get worse not better for the Big East.

Agree.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

"This is neither right nor fair. It’s the Power 5 making up the rules as they go along, and it’s the NCAA doing what the NCAA has done for decades — cowering to schools like Ohio State and Texas, and taking it out on the likes of Southern Indiana and Purdue Fort Wayne."

This the crux of the argument. The other 27 will let the P5 screw them over, out of fear of the P5 breaking off. Its an abusive relationship. The numbers in that article are insane.

There are not too many situations where you can be found civilly liable, and simply declare that a whole bunch of completely separate entities will pay the judgment.

 

[ZooCougar]

Ahh so the P5 wants to be bailed out by the G5 and lower on this legal fiasco.

Knives need to come out. The G5 and below should threaten to sue the NCAA into oblivion.