I think the belief (not my belief, I have no ideal what the heck is going to happen) is that if the P4 don't get their way then they will do that. "Their way" is the addition of more NCAA bids, and their times getting those bids. If they don't, then they may walk from the NCAA and its tournament and start their own. Would the BE be invited? Who knows. Would it be on lesser terms? Who knows. Would the new P4 tournament be successful? Probably not as successful as the current tournament, but the P4 (really the P2) doesn't seem to care as long as they make more money in the short term.