In my mind, our scenarios are going to be dictated by Kansas.
1) If none of the Pac-12, B1G, or ACC wants them, I believe the Big 12 will not remain a power conference and expand by 2 schools (Houston and UCF). The American backfills with Rice to keep Navy happy. Nothing happens for us.
2) If B1G wants them bad enough (and I don't think the B1G will be able to poach a non- Big 12 power school), I think #16 will either be us or Iowa State (because of AAU). This scenario=WIN for us
3) I don't see the ACC grabbing them for the same reasons they didn't grab us.
4) If the Pac-12 grabs them I think they will be paired by Texas Tech to get into Texas. The Big 12 would be left with 6 schools and probably add 4 (Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and Boise State or Colorado State). Navy goes independent as even though the AAC would likely backfill with Rice, Navy would be able to get a better schedule as an independent. We would probably play them frequently, if not yearly. This scenario=WIN for us
I don't see scenario 3 happening, but scenario 1 is at worst a toss-up, scenario 4 helps our football schedule, and scenario 2 would be a life raft the school.