Texas & OK ask to join SEC?

[UConnSportsGuy]

The next person that says "football drives the bus" should get a 2 day timeout. Markets drive the bus. EVERYTHING else is secondary.

Not sure that is exactly true any more. Up until about 2 years ago, yes Markets drove the bus (it was all about getting the cable households to justify the network contracts and subscription fees). But I think the shift in the media landscape now has digital subscriptions as the driver--so the number of fans and dollars that would pay to subscribe to the digital offering. In the long run, I think that shift helps UConn.

 

[metsfan2323]

I don't see what value a conference of TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, WVU, Iowa State, Kansas, K State and OSU has to anyone. It is a bunch of third tier markets and schools. Someone may care about Kansas, that's it. They have no TV contract, and ESPN is about to slit the league's throat. How is this league more valuable than the American?

This should help the Big East in negotiations with Fox.

The Big 12 poaching the AAC is a way to filter out Tulsa and Tulane and they probably all feel threatened by SMU with the new pay the player rules so they may get filtered out too.

 

[hoopsfan22]

The next person that says "football drives the bus" should get a 2 day timeout. Markets drive the bus. EVERYTHING else is secondary.

That's why UConn with its #33 DMA, a bigger market than more than half of the P5 teams (including THEEEEEEE Ohio State University), continues to be on the outside looking in and is never up for serious consideration?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't think this is all bad for UConn. The conferences have not always acted strategically, but if they do, I think this is how it will play out.

1) Whenever a market that has equilibrium suddenly has a shock that elevates one competitor above all others, the other competitors usually respond. The SEC has elevated itself in both markets and product on the field as the clear #1 conference. The other three leagues can drop into a subordinate role, or they can respond. I think they will respond.

2) How do they respond? By grabbing products (i.e. content) and markets.

2.a) As dysfunctional as the league has been, the Pac 12 has to do something immediately, because it is the most vulnerable with its failed network and small membership. I think it has to look at BYU and Boise, and maybe CSU. It is possible that the conference could try to grab TCU or Houston, but that doesn't seem likely.

2.b) the ACC is the #3 competitor, and the schools it has added have not really elevated the league. It will make another run at ND, which will probably be rebuffed. After that, I think there will be pressure to add more markets. My fear is that the league looks to Florida for UCF and USF. I do not think Miami and FSU want that, so then the ACC has to look north. Cincinnati, WVU and UConn are all candidates.

2.c) The Big 10 may start a bidding war for Texas and Oklahoma. That is what I would do if I was the Big 10 leadership. Assuming that fails, they will invite Notre Dame. Notre Dame will probably decline, and then the next two options are Kansas and UConn. The Big 10 will never add a weak academic school (WVU) or a secondary school in its market. WVU also has the problem of having an essentially worthless market.

Whatever is left of the MWC, Big 12 and AAC will merge into 1 or 2 leagues.

3) Even if Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is the only move in this round of realignment, it damages the Big 12 as a major basketball conference, which means Kansas, WVU, OSU, Texas Tech and Baylor take a step backwards in recruiting and probably lose some coaches. This helps the Big East both on the recruiting trail and in their negotiations with Fox.

 

[Fishy]

How does UConn compete in this new wild west and consolidation of power?

I’m not sure anything really changes immediately.

But this will effectively be pro sports in a few years and I do not see that ending well for us or anyone outside of the top of the Big Ten or SEC.

 

[VCE]

How does UConn compete in this new wild west and consolidation of power?

Sack up and do what UCONN has done for the past three decades plus?

 

[gampelcrazies]

I mean if the B12 implodes there’s no way Kansas doesn’t join the Big east right?

 

[TRest]

The Big 12 poaching the AAC is a way to filter out Tulsa and Tulane and they probably all feel threatened by SMU with the new pay the player rules so they may get filtered out too.

Every school in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the decimated Big 12.

 

[metsfan2323]

I mean if the B12 implodes there’s no way Kansas doesn’t join the Big east right?

Why would they implode? There are still some good sports schools left behind. Baylor won the tournament just 3 months ago and Houston was in the final four. Poach the best teams from the AAC and its still a very good football and basketball conference. The implosion only happens if there is P4 expansion beyond just Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas likely gets selected in that scenario. If that were to happen the remnants of the B12 would likely join the AAC and make that conference much better than it is now.

I don't see how the Big East adds anybody.

 

[Skiblets]

Emmett says it’s time to decentralize and within days all hell breaks loose. Hate the NCAA all you want but it held this craziness together. Kinda like Ghaddafi or Sadam Hussein. Take them out of the picture and everything spins off its axes.

add in that NIL essentially gave college sports the for profit go ahead with no salary cap and the amateur model is essentially gone. Watching a Wesleyan game in that beautiful campus just moved up the list

 

[Exit 4]

So what’s the best - realistic scenario?
Perhaps:
TX and OK to the SEC
TT, OSU, KSU, ISU to the pac12 as they try to expand out of the PST
BU, TCU and WV to the AAC (cures odd number issue)
KS to independent-BE while it waits on B1G to make a decision.

B1G and the AAC sit back for a couple years before making their next moves which partially hinge on the ND.

IDK- so many possibilities

 

[Storrs South]

Why would they implode? There are still some good sports schools left behind. Baylor won the tournament just 3 months ago and Houston was in the final four. Poach the best teams from the AAC and its still a very good football and basketball conference. The implosion only happens if there is P4 expansion beyond just Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas likely gets selected in that scenario. If that were to happen the remnants of the B12 would likely join the AAC and make that conference much better than it is now.

I don't see how the Big East adds anybody.

If Kliavkoff wants to go for the brass ring, he will propose to Kansas that the Jayhawks come to the Pac-12 for basketball (not all sports). People inside the college sports industry think Kansas could conceivably go to the Big East for basketball if the Big 12 falls apart and either dies or becomes AAC lite.

 

[Drew]

If Kliavkoff wants to go for the brass ring, he will propose to Kansas that the Jayhawks come to the Pac-12 for basketball (not all sports). People inside the college sports industry think Kansas could conceivably go to the Big East for basketball if the Big 12 falls apart and either dies or becomes AAC lite.

That’s awesome but I also feel as though that can’t be their preference if they have an option to remain with KSU/ISU and others making equal/more money or going to the P12 with some additional schools

 

[UCFBfan]

This is totally the first major move to a P4 if this happens. Someone asked why would the SEC wanna add two more schools? They want to add because these are premiere programs in CFB. They may not be at the top now but their history and fan bases are insane. When this whole thing turns semi-pro, you want these two schools in your conference. The SEC is already looking at that.

The PAC will pick who they want and be selective because for the first time in forever, they actually hold some kind of upper hand and power. The B1G and ACC will sit tight and see where the pieces fall.....those Big 12 schools not picked will be lumped with the AAC or AAC schools will join the Big 12 to just keep the conference alive and the remaining AAC schools will join with C-USA or something like that.

I can see this settle for a few years after these moves, should they happen, and a new P4 play out. The next moves will be the P4 conferences raiding each other for their top teams and possibly jettisoning the lower tiers.....

 

[Exit 4]

Oh god- I’m falling into the scenario chaos…

What if the desperate PAC goes bigger; six schools instead of four; TT, OSU, ISU, KSU + Kan + one of Boise or BYU. Oh wait, Boise isn’t a real school and so that would never work. And considering the state of social trends- can’t see the CA schools accepting BYU.

I would like to think the B1G adds Kan, but I really think they will be inclined to sit back - be patient and play the long game to go after select ACC schools in 2035. I know- that’s a long view. The B1G needs a growing state like VA and NC in its footprint.

 

[UCFBfan]

Oh god- I’m falling into the scenario chaos…

What if the desperate PAC goes bigger; six schools instead of four; TT, OSU, ISU, KSU + Kan + one of Boise or BYU. Oh wait, Boise isn’t a real school and so that would never work. And considering the state of social trends- can’t see the CA schools accepting BYU.

I would like to think the B1G adds Kan, but I really think they will be inclined to sit back - be patient and play the long game to go after select ACC schools in 2035. I know- that’s a long view. The B1G needs a growing state like VA and NC in its footprint.

Isn't it nice to make scenarios knowing we are ok in our current situation and not feeling like we need to be on a life boat?? If anything, this will open more games for us to possibly schedule and in a possible long shot move, add KU to the BE

 

[Exit 4]

Isn't it nice to make scenarios knowing we are ok in our current situation and not feeling like we need to be on a life boat?? If anything, this will open more games for us to possibly schedule and in a possible long shot move, add KU to the BE

I like any scenario where the P12 makes a move because it kills the b12 and creates some other interesting possibilities including perhaps more independent teams.

I’m not that thrilled if the b12 remnants hold together and backfill with two or four AAC schools… although I guess I should like that two because the AAC will be sliding backwards.

 

[Storrs South]

That’s awesome but I also feel as though that can’t be their preference if they have an option to remain with KSU/ISU and others making equal/more money or going to the P12 with some additional schools

Their football program is just such an anchor (sounds familiar) and the high brow institutions may look down on Kansas despite being AAU (then again Colorado is similarly ranked in USNWR).

The most likely scenario as you note is probably just sticking with the Big XII. The conference tournament is already in Kansas City every year and they would get to exert tremendous influence in the "Zombie Big XII."

The money will be significantly less than the $38 million a year in the Big XII currently, but obviously not as bad as the AAC $7 million a year ($14-16???). It's way behind the big boys of the SEC & ACC & BIG 10, but good enough for Kansas that is primarily investing in basketball anyway.

The only way Kansas goes to the Big East is if FOX is willing to make it worth their while financially (we still don't know how UConn's addition to the Big East affects contract value as they haven't come to the negotiating table yet so maybe it happens especially with FOX losing OU/UT T1 content).

Otherwise, the Big XII would have to dissolve somehow (no idea how this happens since most schools have nowhere to go), OR the Big XII is told by TV partners to take on Memphis, USF, UCF, and Cincy and determine they don't want any part of it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

After thinking about it, if Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12 the logical next step is to add Houston to get to 9 teams and play a true round robin in football and hoops. Maybe Cincinnati. I don't see anyone else getting added.

 

[tzznandrew]

After thinking about it, if Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12 the logical next step is to add Houston to get to 9 teams and play a true round robin in football and hoops. Maybe Cincinnati. I don't see anyone else getting added.

You give WVU a traveling partner, you replenish Texas a bit with an old SWAC rival, and you move on.

 

[Stinger92860]

Or they announce the change for the start of 2026. That’s not that far off.

There is no way any school endures a 5 year sendoff. We have a better chance of joining the NFC East.

You were saying…….UConn to the NFC East should help recruiting

 

[Vowelguy]

Navy wants to play one Texas school at home per year per their agreement with the AAC for military recruiting purposes. No Rice=no Texas home game every year.

Lol if the AAC is dumb enough to add a crappy school just to give a provisional member a game in Texas every other year

 

[pepband99]

You were saying…….UConn to the NFC East should help recruiting

Notifying you won't be around post-2025 doesn't mean you need to stick around until then.

 

[Drew]

Their football program is just such an anchor (sounds familiar) and the high brow institutions may look down on Kansas despite being AAU (then again Colorado is similarly ranked in USNWR).

The most likely scenario as you note is probably just sticking with the Big XII. The conference tournament is already in Kansas City every year and they would get to exert tremendous influence in the "Zombie Big XII."

The money will be significantly less than the $38 million a year in the Big XII currently, but obviously not as bad as the AAC $7 million a year ($14-16???). It's way behind the big boys of the SEC & ACC & BIG 10, but good enough for Kansas that is primarily investing in basketball anyway.

The only way Kansas goes to the Big East is if FOX is willing to make it worth their while financially (we still don't know how UConn's addition to the Big East affects contract value as they haven't come to the negotiating table yet so maybe it happens especially with FOX losing OU/UT T1 content).

Otherwise, the Big XII would have to dissolve somehow (no idea how this happens since most schools have nowhere to go), OR the Big XII is told by TV partners to take on Memphis, USF, UCF, and Cincy and determine they don't want any part of it.

I just really don’t see the incentive from KU’s perspective to join the Big East, especially if you get the money range you’re talking about ($15M ). KU and KSU are legitimately joined at the hip from both a state politics standpoint and a collegiate athletics standpoint.

If you’re KU and you can get $15M a year in say a 10-12 team league where you still get to play teams you have historical ties to like ISU, Baylor, OK St and you have a primary rival to play in KSU, and then you add in new hoops games against say SMU, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati in addition to the games with WVU and a conference tournament and football title game in Kansas City- that’s certainly more attractive to their alumni and fan base than trying to carve a random independent football schedule and playing basketball games 1000+ miles from home in areas they don’t draw students from against mostly non-peer small private schools.

 

[Vowelguy]

Recall that the lesser 8 had a chance to stabilize their conference membership just a few years ago. They took applications and then rejected them all. And we said they would rue that day.

 

[WestHartHusk]

I just really don’t see the incentive from KU’s perspective to join the Big East, especially if you get the money range you’re talking about ($15M ). KU and KSU are legitimately joined at the hip from both a state politics standpoint and a collegiate athletics standpoint.

If you’re KU and you can get $15M a year in say a 10-12 team league where you still get to play teams you have historical ties to like ISU, Baylor, OK St and you have a primary rival to play in KSU, and then you add in new hoops games against say SMU, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati in addition to the games with WVU and a conference tournament and football title game in Kansas City- that’s certainly more attractive to their alumni and fan base than trying to carve a random independent football schedule and playing basketball games 1000+ miles from home in areas they don’t draw students from against mostly non-peer small private schools.

A few things:

1. The same thing you just said of KU/KSU was said of UT/Tech; UT/A&M; OU/OSU. All bets are off now.
2. That schedule sounds fine. But, if you want players to be able to cash-in on NIL, playing throughout the plains ain't gonna do it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Their football program is just such an anchor (sounds familiar) and the high brow institutions may look down on Kansas despite being AAU (then again Colorado is similarly ranked in USNWR).

The most likely scenario as you note is probably just sticking with the Big XII. The conference tournament is already in Kansas City every year and they would get to exert tremendous influence in the "Zombie Big XII."

The money will be significantly less than the $38 million a year in the Big XII currently, but obviously not as bad as the AAC $7 million a year ($14-16???). It's way behind the big boys of the SEC & ACC & BIG 10, but good enough for Kansas that is primarily investing in basketball anyway.

The only way Kansas goes to the Big East is if FOX is willing to make it worth their while financially (we still don't know how UConn's addition to the Big East affects contract value as they haven't come to the negotiating table yet so maybe it happens especially with FOX losing OU/UT T1 content).

Otherwise, the Big XII would have to dissolve somehow (no idea how this happens since most schools have nowhere to go), OR the Big XII is told by TV partners to take on Memphis, USF, UCF, and Cincy and determine they don't want any part of it.

Generally the bigger name conference has survived even as it is losing all its valuable members (see CUSA losing everyone that matters to the American and then still raiding Sun Belt), but the Big 12 may break that streak if it loses Texas and Oklahoma, especially if Kansas finds a landing spot in the Big 10. Content is king in the new world, and Kansas' hoops program would provide a lot of content for the BTN.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Recall that the lesser 8 had a chance to stabilize their conference membership just a few years ago. They took applications and then rejected them all. And we said they would rue that day.

Karma is a mofo.

 

[Storrs South]

I just really don’t see the incentive from KU’s perspective to join the Big East, especially if you get the money range you’re talking about ($15M ). KU and KSU are legitimately joined at the hip from both a state politics standpoint and a collegiate athletics standpoint.

If you’re KU and you can get $15M a year in say a 10-12 team league where you still get to play teams you have historical ties to like ISU, Baylor, OK St and you have a primary rival to play in KSU, and then you add in new hoops games against say SMU, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati in addition to the games with WVU and a conference tournament and football title game in Kansas City- that’s certainly more attractive to their alumni and fan base than trying to carve a random independent football schedule and playing basketball games 1000+ miles from home in areas they don’t draw students from against mostly non-peer small private schools.

I agree with all of this except the KSU element. As we have now seen with Colorado and Oklahoma, it matters until it doesn't. At the end of the day, the institutions seem to only care about the bottom line and if that means cutting off little brother, so be it.

But to your overall point, yes, the only way it happens is if somehow Big XII dissolves and I don't even know how that would happen (there really is no where for any of these schools to go). KU won't care for any of the new additions but KSU, ISU, Baylor, OSU is enough for now. WVU will definitely put on a full court press to get out and go to the ACC now and probably fail.

 

[Drew]

A few things:

1. The same thing you just said of KU/KSU was said of UT/Tech; UT/A&M; OU/OSU. All bets are off now.
2. That schedule sounds fine. But, if you want players to be able to cash-in on NIL, playing throughout the plains ain't gonna do it.

Regarding point 1- the bets are off if you’re upgrading conferences. KU leaves KSU behind to go to the Big 10 100%. There’s zero reason to think they’d choose to leave behind KSU to be peers with Butler. It’s just not logical to think that way.

Regarding point 2- you’re not thinking about NIL monetary generation correctly. Most of your money will be made promoting local and regional businesses. KU has much more incentive for their athletes to maximize their NIL money playing games against ISU, KSU, etc in Kansas City where a vast majority of their alumni live than they do in playing games in Washington DC and Providence RI.