Tennessee 2025, part 2

[Geew1992]

https://atozsports.com/nashville/volunteers/insider-says-people-program-tennessee-ad-danny-basketball-lady-vols-coach-kim-caldwell/

"Multiple people have gone to the AD, including, I believe, kids around the program and have encouraged him to make a change,” said Basilio. “I don’t think he (White) wants to admit that he made a mistake. But here’s the truth: There are no secrets in sports. Everybody knows this thing is totally volatile. The people they bring in next year, player wise, are going to be brought in for monetary reasons only, and you’re right back where you were. A bunch of people are going to transfer out.”

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Frankly, I don't think the LVs body of work is tournament worthy and I'm generally a fan. Their quality of wins isn't terrific and some of their losses are terrible, even taking out UConn and SC.

There are major problems in Knoxville. Some of the players and their chemistry appear to be toxic but that is on Caldwell. She recruited and assembled the team. She also has stubbornly refused to adjust to their talents and abilities, which are better than their record indicates but not as strong as some fans think. They also, at least to me, don't have many good wins in the big picture.

She should and will get one more season. If her freshmen stick and she swallows her pride to make adjustments next year could be better. However, they are further from success than they ever were with Warlick or Harper.

 

[WBBTakeover]

Frankly, I don't think the LVs body of work is tournament worthy and I'm generally a fan. Their quality of wins isn't terrific and some of their losses are terrible, even taking out UConn and SC.

There are major problems in Knoxville. Some of the players and their chemistry appear to be toxic but that is on Caldwell. She recruited and assembled the team. She also has stubbornly refused to adjust to their talents and abilities, which are better than their record indicates but not as strong as some fans think. They also, at least to me, don't have many good wins in the big picture.

She should and will get one more season. If her freshmen stick and she swallows her pride to make adjustments next year could be better. However, they are further from success than they ever were with Warlick or Harper.

I agree with most of what you've said. However, I do think that Tennessee's overall body of work is tournament caliber. They're just more of an 8/9 seed instead of a 7 or better. Their stay in the NCAA tournament will be a short one.

 

[JellyBean]

I only replied to what I believed to be the question, namely whether Tennessee deserves to be in the tournament somewhere. I think that's obvious, not merely on metrics but also because they're kinda fun to watch, and the NCAA has to consider that. Is the NET flawed? Sure, but it's not the only consideration the committee uses. Is RPI better? Maybe, but that's not germane to the question.

Does Tennessee deserve some special seeding? No, and neither does USC. But it would seem strange to exclude either of them. For one thing, both of them could probably win their first round and maybe second round games.

I will be curious to see how this all plays out for the Lady Vols and USC.

 

[bballnut90]

Frankly, I don't think the LVs body of work is tournament worthy and I'm generally a fan. Their quality of wins isn't terrific and some of their losses are terrible, even taking out UConn and SC.

There are major problems in Knoxville. Some of the players and their chemistry appear to be toxic but that is on Caldwell. She recruited and assembled the team. She also has stubbornly refused to adjust to their talents and abilities, which are better than their record indicates but not as strong as some fans think. They also, at least to me, don't have many good wins in the big picture.

She should and will get one more season. If her freshmen stick and she swallows her pride to make adjustments next year could be better. However, they are further from success than they ever were with Warlick or Harper.

Disagree about their losses being terrible. The volume of losses is bad but they aren't losing to awful teams:
9 of their 13 losses are to teams projected to get a top 5 seed
2 of their 13 losses are to Alabama and NC State (projected 6 and 8 seeds)
The last 2 losses are to Mississippi State and Texas A&M, both of whom are bubble teams

Wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and Alabama are better than most other teams in the 8-9-10-bubble range. I think a lot of fans are missing that most teams who are 8/9/10/11 seeds are not good teams but they're still good enough to make a 68 team field. Tennessee has finished the year dreadfully with lots of rumors of disgruntled players and a bad locker room situation right now, but they're a lock for a tournament bid.

I do agree she should get another season unless the AD has someone in mind and is willing to shell out big bucks for her replacement. Caldwell has a very talented roster lined up for next season and I think it's worth sticking it out to see if she can make progress. All that said, if a bunch of players are threatening to leave because of her and it's clear she's lost the locker room, then it's time to let her go.

 

[Geew1992]

Disagree about their losses being terrible. The volume of losses is bad but they aren't losing to awful teams:
9 of their 13 losses are to teams projected to get a top 5 seed
2 of their 13 losses are to Alabama and NC State (projected 6 and 8 seeds)
The last 2 losses are to Mississippi State and Texas A&M, both of whom are bubble teams

Wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and Alabama are better than most other teams in the 8-9-10-bubble range. I think a lot of fans are missing that most teams who are 8/9/10/11 seeds are not good teams but they're still good enough to make a 68 team field. Tennessee has finished the year dreadfully with lots of rumors of disgruntled players and a bad locker room situation right now, but they're a lock for a tournament bid.

I do agree she should get another season unless the AD has someone in mind and is willing to shell out big bucks for her replacement. Caldwell has a very talented roster lined up for next season and I think it's worth sticking it out to see if she can make progress. All that said, if a bunch of players are threatening to leave because of her and it's clear she's lost the locker room, then it's time to let her go.

Volnation is saying all but 1 freshman is hitting the portal as well as 2 other players. This person seems to have some inside knowledge. They knew Wynn was leaving before it was announced. It’s also believed that numerous players have gone to the AD saying she needs to go. She’s def lost the locker room. And not sure she’s gonna get it back

 

[Vowelguy]

Tennessee has completely fallen apart,

"completely fallen apart"

what record should a #30-35 team have had in those last 10 games?

I think they would've been favored in 3 games. They won 2.

 

[Vowelguy]

"Multiple people have gone to the AD, including, I believe, kids around the program and have encouraged him to make a change,” said Basilio.

lol, these players were recruited and chose to play for her
now after a year or two they decide the coach is the problem?

If I were AD, and If she's not abusing players, I would look very skeptically at such complainers.

 

[TheFarmFan]

lol, these players were recruited and chose to play for her
now after a year or two they decide the coach is the problem?

If I were AD, and If she's not abusing players, I would look very skeptically at such complainers.

I mean, if all but one player plans to transfer, that seems like a real problem. And recruiting can often be not much more than a visit weekend and some phone calls. And more to the point: Caldwell in year 2 is showing some significant signs of concern I'm not sure any of us saw in year one, so it's fair if the players' perceptions of her have been updated in light of the past few months as well...

 

[Vowelguy]

I mean, if all but one player plans to transfer, that seems like a real problem. And recruiting can often be not much more than a visit weekend and some phone calls. And more to the point: Caldwell in year 2 is showing some significant signs of concern I'm not sure any of us saw in year one, so it's fair if the players' perceptions of her have been updated in light of the past few months as well...

Unclear how many players actually complained to the AD. And what exactly is that conversation “fire her or I’m leaving?”

There have also been rumors that Pauldo parents are high maintenance. You can’t let folks like that run your program.

 

[JellyBean]

If players were going to leave, they would have announced it by now. Also, since the regular season ended a week ago, who knows what could have transpired since then. Team meetings. Coach and player meetings. Meetings with the AD, the players, and coach. Or just a meeting with the AD and the players. Or meetings with just the AD and the coach to see what can be done to rally the team.

What we do know is the Lady Vols have not declined any post season play, so there is a glimmer of hope, so far. Hopefully cooler heads prevail in this matter. Coaches need the players and the players need the coaches.

 

[cancontent]

If players were going to leave, they would have announced it by now. Also, since the regular season ended a week ago, who knows what could have transpired since then. Team meetings. Coach and player meetings. Meetings with the AD, the players, and coach. Or just a meeting with the AD and the players. Or meetings with just the AD and the coach to see what can be done to rally the team.

What we do know is the Lady Vols have not declined any post season play, so there is a glimmer of hope, so far. Hopefully cooler heads prevail in this matter. Coaches need the players and the players need the coaches.

Maybe not with the tournament around the corner. Their season isn't over unlike programs like Rutgers and Indiana.

 

[EricSD]

If players were going to leave, they would have announced it by now. Also, since the regular season ended a week ago, who knows what could have transpired since then. Team meetings. Coach and player meetings. Meetings with the AD, the players, and coach. Or just a meeting with the AD and the players. Or meetings with just the AD and the coach to see what can be done to rally the team.

What we do know is the Lady Vols have not declined any post season play, so there is a glimmer of hope, so far. Hopefully cooler heads prevail in this matter. Coaches need the players and the players need the coaches.

Would they? By what logic do you make that bold claim? The players still have a NCAA tourney to play in.

I'm not arguing that players may be leaving - I hope a bunch do. I'd love it even more if Edwards decided not to bother and opted for another school. A total train wreck crashing and burning would suit me fine! But I just think it's more likely we will hear after the NCAA's, or at least after Tennessee is eliminated.

 

[Puppy Love]

Disagree about their losses being terrible. The volume of losses is bad but they aren't losing to awful teams:
9 of their 13 losses are to teams projected to get a top 5 seed
2 of their 13 losses are to Alabama and NC State (projected 6 and 8 seeds)
The last 2 losses are to Mississippi State and Texas A&M, both of whom are bubble teams

Wins over Kentucky, Georgia, and Alabama are better than most other teams in the 8-9-10-bubble range. I think a lot of fans are missing that most teams who are 8/9/10/11 seeds are not good teams but they're still good enough to make a 68 team field. Tennessee has finished the year dreadfully with lots of rumors of disgruntled players and a bad locker room situation right now, but they're a lock for a tournament bid.

I do agree she should get another season unless the AD has someone in mind and is willing to shell out big bucks for her replacement. Caldwell has a very talented roster lined up for next season and I think it's worth sticking it out to see if she can make progress. All that said, if a bunch of players are threatening to leave because of her and it's clear she's lost the locker room, then it's time to let her go.

I’ve been mulling this over-a lot. I do think the losses were dreadful, especially the blowouts by SC and UConn. It’s been repeatedly said that they played UConn close for a half. It doesn’t matter…they still ended up blown out.

What I’ve really been considering is the impact that the sheer size of the SEC has on strength of schedule. Right now, Massey has SOS as Texas, South Carolina, UCLA, Tennessee and LSU. Oklahoma, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are in the top 15. I think this is something of a ‘rising tide carries all boats’ phenomena. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how tough the schedule is, teams still have to win the games.

LSU played a cupcake non conference schedule but has 5 ranked wins (plus Duke, not ranked at the time). LSU get criticism on this board a lot, but they won meaningful games. Tennessee hasn’t. Personally, I think losing 9 of 11 games at the end of the season along with the rest of their body of work should keep them out. It probably won’t, but it should.

 

[Geew1992]

Would they? By what logic do you make that bold claim? The players still have a NCAA tourney to play in.

I'm not arguing that players may be leaving - I hope a bunch do. I'd love it even more if Edwards decided not to bother and opted for another school. A total train wreck crashing and burning would suit me fine! But I just think it's more likely we will hear after the NCAA's, or at least after Tennessee is eliminated.

Volnation also said if coach Gabe gets a head coaching job Edward’s goes with him. He’s the reason she went there

 

[southie]

What I’ve really been considering is the impact that the sheer size of the SEC has on strength of schedule. Right now, Massey has SOS as Texas, South Carolina, UCLA, Tennessee and LSU. Oklahoma, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are in the top 15. I think this is something of a ‘rising tide carries all boats’ phenomena. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how tough the schedule is, teams still have to win the games. LSU played a cupcake non conference schedule but has 5 ranked wins (plus Duke, not ranked at the time). LSU get criticism on this board a lot, but they won meaningful games. Tennessee hasn’t. Personally, I think losing 9 of 11 games at the end of the season along with the rest of their body of work should keep them out. It probably won’t, but it should.

You make several good points. But, the use of a subjective word like "meaningful" stood out to me. Is that the exact word in the committee's guidelines? Or, are you using that word to describe Q1 wins? Tennessee is 5-11 in NET Q1 which include wins over Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia. Those 5 wins are "meaningful".

• Those 5 wins are more than the 4 NET Q1 wins which TCU has and the Frogs are projected to host a sub-regional; TCU's strength of schedule is 154, while Tennessee's is 21
• Those 5 wins are more than the 3 NET Q1 wins which West Viriginia has and the Mountaineers are projected to host a sub-regional.
• Those 5 wins equal the number of NET Q1 wins which Minnesota has and the Gophers are projected to host a sub-regional; Minnesota's strength of schedule is 179, while Tennessee's is 21
• Those 5 wins are more than teams like North Carolina, Texas Tech and Georgia who are all projected to be seeded higher than Tennessee
• Those 5 wins are the same quantity as teams like Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky who are all projected to be seeded higher than Tennessee and borderline chances to host a sub-regional; all three of them have SOS greater than 118

I think several posters are spinning their personal dislike of Tennessee and ignoring the facts. Tennessee is in and will be no worse than a 9-seed, and most likely a 7-seed, IMO. They scheduled non-conference games like UCLA, Louisville, and NC State which is a much better trio than so many teams like LSU; committee will not punish them for scheduling "tough" despite losing those games.

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2026 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Gamecockfan77]

"completely fallen apart"

what record should a #30-35 team have had in those last 10 games?

I think they would've been favored in 3 games. They won 2.

I don't know.

Finishing on a seven game losing streak, losing 10/12, taking 2 of Tennessee's 3 worst losses in history, having your coach say the team quit and doesn't play hard, suspending and benching your best players seems pretty bad to me.

Even if you did beat Missouri at home in the midst of it.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I think the confusion here is that the committee selects based on "Body of Work", by which metric Tennessee is very clearly in, with 5 Q1 wins and very few losses to bad teams.

If the committee were picking based in "who's peaking in March" (which is how many fans fill out their brackets, since it's the best way to assess the likelihood of a deep tournament run), then I would agree that Tennessee doesn't belong and Stephen F. Austin would be a better candidate for an at-large bid!

 

[Bone Dog]

I think the confusion here is that the committee selects based on "Body of Work", by which metric Tennessee is very clearly in, with 5 Q1 wins and very few losses to bad teams.

If the committee were picking based in "who's peaking in March" (which is how many fans fill out their brackets, since it's the best way to assess the likelihood of a deep tournament run), then I would agree that Tennessee doesn't belong and Stephen F. Austin would be a better candidate for an at-large bid!

This.

 

[ucmiami2]

I think the confusion here is that the committee selects based on "Body of Work", by which metric Tennessee is very clearly in, with 5 Q1 wins and very few losses to bad teams.

If the committee were picking based in "who's peaking in March" (which is how many fans fill out their brackets, since it's the best way to assess the likelihood of a deep tournament run), then I would agree that Tennessee doesn't belong and Stephen F. Austin would be a better candidate for an at-large bid!

The committee does have a 'recency' bias built into their guidelines, initially based on the one 1-16 upset because two star players were injured pre-tournament, but updated more recently. January-March performance is more important, and Feb-Mar is significant. Regardless of schedule, a 7 game losing streak and 2-10 final stretch will be discussed. I still think they get in, but a 16-13 overall record will be close to a record for inclusion if it isn't an actual record. And an 8-9 record against conference teams (including the one and done tournament) will also be in record territory. Just as USC at 17-13, 9-10 with a weaker schedule is also recordish!

 

[DefenseBB]

With new 18 team super conferences, the committee needs to revamp some of their seeding protocols. Many teams will now only play a team in their conference one time, not 2 or 3 times. To scramble their 1-68 snake seeding to “avoid conference foes” due to familiarity no longer applies.

Which is more important: the teams that earned the top 4 seeds or the conference opponents who didn’t? Why would or should Vandy or LSU be rewarded to move their seeding in favor of the SEC and penalize UConn and UCLA? Rightfully or wrongly the Big 10 may get 10 or 11 bids. The SEC might get 10. So the current committee is bound by rules when good conferences might get 6 so rules were made to disperse the teams.

These schools already chose their money so stop rewarding them further…it is what it is and seed accordingly.

 

[southie]

With new 18 team super conferences, the committee needs to revamp some of their seeding protocols. Many teams will now only play a team in their conference one time, not 2 or 3 times. To scramble their 1-68 snake seeding to “avoid conference foes” due to familiarity no longer applies.

Which is more important: the teams that earned the top 4 seeds or the conference opponents who didn’t? Why would or should Vandy or LSU be rewarded to move their seeding in favor of the SEC and penalize UConn and UCLA? Rightfully or wrongly the Big 10 may get 10 or 11 bids. The SEC might get 10. So the current committee is bound by rules when good conferences might get 6 so rules were made to disperse the teams.

These schools already chose their money so stop rewarding them further…it is what it is and seed accordingly.

You make good points. But, all those 4 teams in this scenario are penalized. It's Texas and South Carolina who benefit (I think that's what you were implying overall). Still, Texas and LSU met twice this season. Texas and Vandy would have met twice had the conference tourney seeds gone chalk to the semi-finals. And, South Carolina and LSU did play twice. So, what does the committee do with LSU since they played Texas and South Carolina more than once? Revamping the rule still would force LSU to get paired with UConn or UCLA.

I'll never forget back in 2016 where Texas had a very good team and was having a tremendous season. And, our ceiling was the Final Four as UConn had a very special team that season and there was no way they weren't winning the title. But, because the PAC 12 had four teams among the Top 16 seeds, Arizona State was 'bumped" up and Texas drew the short straw and was paired with UConn as the 2-seed in the Bridgeport Regional. Our fans were devasted.

Until your team is impacted negatively as a result of the committee's intra-conference "rules", you don't realize the consequences.

 

[Puppy Love]

You make good points. But, all those 4 teams in this scenario are penalized. It's Texas and South Carolina who benefit (I think that's what you were implying overall). Still, Texas and LSU met twice this season. Texas and Vandy would have met twice had the conference tourney seeds gone chalk to the semi-finals. And, South Carolina and LSU did play twice. So, what does the committee do with LSU since they played Texas and South Carolina more than once? Revamping the rule still would force LSU to get paired with UConn or UCLA.

I'll never forget back in 2016 where Texas had a very good team and was having a tremendous season. And, our ceiling was the Final Four as UConn had a very special team that season and there was no way they weren't winning the title. But, because the PAC 12 had four teams among the Top 16 seeds, Arizona State was 'bumped" up and Texas drew the short straw and was paired with UConn as the 2-seed in the Bridgeport Regional. Our fans were devasted.

Until your team is impacted negatively as a result of the committee's intra-conference "rules", you don't realize the consequences.

This was the view from my section in Bridgeport in 2016. 😆 My sister lives outside San Antonio and I sent her this photo.

 

[Puppy Love]

@southie - Sorry, I tried to edit to take out the emoji as I realized it might seem rude (didn’t mean it that way), but it wasn’t happening.

 

[USMC(ret)]

Credit to Coach Caldwell for shouldering the blame for the dismal season after the early exit from the NCAA tournament. Wish her the best going forward.

 

[UConnCat]

Not sure if this is referring to an asst possibly leaving Tenn for Rutgers or players announcing plans to enter the portal when it opens.

 

[Centerstream]

If the committee were picking based in "who's peaking in March" (which is how many fans fill out their brackets, since it's the best way to assess the likelihood of a deep tournament run), then I would agree that Tennessee doesn't belong and Stephen F. Austin would be a better candidate for an at-large bid!

Any team that is on a 7 game losing streak when the commitee selects, which means they haven't won a game in March or in the last two weeks of February, does not belong in any NCAA tournament. The committee is rewarding a really, really bad team.
Give teams from other conferences a chance to lose in the first round.
If they can make specific rules regarding who can play who in certain rounds, make rules about winning and losing and making the tournament.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

IMO the situation at Tennessee is just roster management. Tennessee is a top school and can draw top players. However it has to be players that will fit into their coaches style of play. I think that is the issue here. Caldwell so much as mentioned that in her presser about changing things in January. She just has to recruit her players that will work in her system which may not always be a selection of top 25 players. But that’s just me. I think she can regroup in the off season.

 

[my2cents]

You make several good points. But, the use of a subjective word like "meaningful" stood out to me. Is that the exact word in the committee's guidelines? Or, are you using that word to describe Q1 wins? Tennessee is 5-11 in NET Q1 which include wins over Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia. Those 5 wins are "meaningful".

• Those 5 wins are more than the 4 NET Q1 wins which TCU has and the Frogs are projected to host a sub-regional; TCU's strength of schedule is 154, while Tennessee's is 21
• Those 5 wins are more than the 3 NET Q1 wins which West Viriginia has and the Mountaineers are projected to host a sub-regional.
• Those 5 wins equal the number of NET Q1 wins which Minnesota has and the Gophers are projected to host a sub-regional; Minnesota's strength of schedule is 179, while Tennessee's is 21
• Those 5 wins are more than teams like North Carolina, Texas Tech and Georgia who are all projected to be seeded higher than Tennessee
• Those 5 wins are the same quantity as teams like Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky who are all projected to be seeded higher than Tennessee and borderline chances to host a sub-regional; all three of them have SOS greater than 118

I think several posters are spinning their personal dislike of Tennessee and ignoring the facts. Tennessee is in and will be no worse than a 9-seed, and most likely a 7-seed, IMO. They scheduled non-conference games like UCLA, Louisville, and NC State which is a much better trio than so many teams like LSU; committee will not punish them for scheduling "tough" despite losing those games.

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2026 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

No team that has lost it's last 7 games ( now 8) should be in the tournament regardless of SOS or any other parameter.

 

[Bone Dog]

IMO the situation at Tennessee is just roster management. Tennessee is a top school and can draw top players. However it has to be players that will fit into their coaches style of play. I think that is the issue here. Caldwell so much as mentioned that in her presser about changing things in January. She just has to recruit her players that will work in her system which may not always be a selection of top 25 players. But that’s just me. I think she can regroup in the off season.

Agree, and disagree. Top recruits are still drawn to Tennessee and that’s important. And you’re right that roster management seems to have been the problem. But if Kim recruits to fit her ‘system’, if that’s what it is, then they will never make it back to the top ranks. That system is ad hoc at best. It’s what you do when you’re rebuilding at a new school. It’s not something you can build a team culture around. It’s definitely not a style of play you aim to sustain.

I was impressed by how well she’d recruited for this season and thought it meant she could abandon the ‘hockey style’ baloney. And there were signs she might be thinking about it given Cooper’s and Spearman’s minutes. But in the end she mainly stuck with it and the team collapsed.

If she gets another season, she should take it as an opportunity to retool her approach. She has the players — assuming they all stay — to build a winning season and be competitive. She’s still a front court and a couple of years from climbing back into the top ten. But she can’t squander the talent she’s assembled in this same way again.