Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler

CheshireCat said:
Anyone saying they want to play PC or any tough team in a post-season rematch over “revenge” is an idiot. I’ll take the path of least resistance and hope for upsets that work in our favor vs hoping for tough opponents. Anyone want to be in a 2 point game with them with a minute to go? Not me.
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Best response/comment. Not sure why we keep making these Providence post. They have a better resume to me with true wins over Texas Tech, Wisconsin and a close loss to a full strength Nova. I just hope we can beat a full strength Nova because we couldn't beat them while short handed. Ijs
 
UconnFanDC said:
Best response/comment. Not sure why we keep making these Providence post. They have a better resume to me with true wins over Texas Tech, Wisconsin and a close loss to a full strength Nova. I just hope we can beat a full strength Nova because we couldn't beat them while short handed. Ijs
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They do not have a better resume. They have a better record. I would've done a blind resume test but itd have been too obvious.

Providence:
Record: 22-3(12-2)
NET: 27

Result Based Metrics(Obviously will be their strongest Metrics):
KPI: 8
SOR: 9

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 41
KenPom: 44
SAG: 32

Quad W/L:
Quad 1: 6-2
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

NET SOS: 47
Non-Conf SOS: 119
RPI SOS: 70


Connecticut
Record: 19-7(10-5)
NET: 17

Result Based Metrics:
KPI: 22
SOR: 25

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 18
KenPom: 18
SAG: 16

Quad Wins:
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:1-0
Quad 4:7-0

NET SOS: 36
Non Conf SOS: 120
RPI SOS: 45

I mean you be the judge. We have 1 less Quad 1 win, but have played 3 more quad one games. But they have 3 more Quad 3 games. Lets play a game and take 3 of our Q1 losses and substitute them with an assumptive 3 Q3 wins. That puts our record as 25-4. Which is why the predictive Metrics favor us in a very substantial way over PC. The W-L record is deceptive when deciding who has the better resume.
 
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AntG168 said:
Maybe. I think us winning those 3 q 3 games is much more likely than them winning 2 of 3 q1 games
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Just say you think the Huskies are better now than when the Friars won in Hartford...
 
shizzle787 said:
Butler is not that bad. They beat bubble team Oklahoma on the road. The Big East (with the exception of Georgetown) is strong top to bottom. I make the case that if St. John’s, Butler, and DePaul played in the ACC or Pac-12, they might be tourney teams.
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I think Anderson at St. Johns is a really good coach. If he can get some big recruits in there look out. Heck if Champagnie and Alexander had a Sanogo to throw it down too thats problably a top 15 team.
 
AntG168 said:
They do not have a better resume. They have a better record. I would've done a blind resume test but itd have been too obvious.

Providence:
Record: 22-3(12-2)
NET: 27

Result Based Metrics(Obviously will be their strongest Metrics):
KPI: 8
SOR: 9

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 41
KenPom: 44
SAG: 32

Quad W/L:
Quad 1: 6-2
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

NET SOS: 47
Non-Conf SOS: 119
RPI SOS: 70


Connecticut
Record: 19-7(10-5)
NET: 17

Result Based Metrics:
KPI: 22
SOR: 25

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 18
KenPom: 18
SAG: 16

Quad Wins:
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:1-0
Quad 4:7-0

NET SOS: 36
Non Conf SOS: 120
RPI SOS: 45

I mean you be the judge. We have 1 less Quad 1 win, but have played 3 more quad one games. But they have 3 more Quad 3 games. Lets play a game and take 3 of our Q1 losses and substitute them with an assumptive 3 Q3 wins. That puts our record as 25-4. Which is why the predictive Metrics favor us in a very substantial way over PC. The W-L record is deceptive when deciding who has the better resume.
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Whatever you say, geek.
 
AntG168 said:
I think we have Sanogo and a healthy Martin. You love to disagree with me. Disagree with the numbers
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Do we have to go over the first rule of holes again?

A couple of better facts to help you: Uconn is playing MUCH better than the Friars are right now. Against much better competition.

A couple of facts that may not help you out: both teams had key starters missing from the game that the Frairs won in Hartford. You keep forgetting that. And the numbers that matter are the Ws and the Ls.

Concentrate on the former and dwell less on the later. (You will sound smarter. Trust me.)
 
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Rakkasan said:
Do we have to go over the first rule of holes again?

A couple of better facts to help you: Uconn is playing MUCH better than the Friars are right now. Against much better competition.

A couple of facts that may not help you out: both teams had key starters missing from the game that the Frairs won in Hartford. You keep forgetting that. And the numbers that matter are the Ws and the Ls.

Concentrate on the former and dwell less on the later. (You will sound smarter. Trust me.)
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Why do you keep messaging me. I don’t want to have this conversation with you again. Do not address me about Pc again. I don’t block, but I will. You make my yard experience significantly worse. Good bye.
 
jeff99 said:
It’s fine to say you think UConn has the better team. But better resume? No.
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Go through the numbers and prove your point. You won’t because you can’t. 75% if the metrics think we’re better. We’ve played tougher games. If we beat Nova on tuesday, it wont even be a discussion.
 
AntG168 said:
They do not have a better resume. They have a better record. I would've done a blind resume test but itd have been too obvious.

Providence:
Record: 22-3(12-2)
NET: 27

Result Based Metrics(Obviously will be their strongest Metrics):
KPI: 8
SOR: 9

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 41
KenPom: 44
SAG: 32

Quad W/L:
Quad 1: 6-2
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

NET SOS: 47
Non-Conf SOS: 119
RPI SOS: 70


Connecticut
Record: 19-7(10-5)
NET: 17

Result Based Metrics:
KPI: 22
SOR: 25

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 18
KenPom: 18
SAG: 16

Quad Wins:
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:1-0
Quad 4:7-0

NET SOS: 36
Non Conf SOS: 120
RPI SOS: 45

I mean you be the judge. We have 1 less Quad 1 win, but have played 3 more quad one games. But they have 3 more Quad 3 games. Lets play a game and take 3 of our Q1 losses and substitute them with an assumptive 3 Q3 wins. That puts our record as 25-4. Which is why the predictive Metrics favor us in a very substantial way over PC. The W-L record is deceptive when deciding who has the better resume.
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That's cool and everything, but if you drafting players (just starters) who are you taking and be honest. 1 Sanogo 2 Nate 3 either Cole or Durham 4 Reeves, Martin, Horchler (to me does everything Whaley does, but can shoot it) that's how I look at it. Both teams are good and we can go back and forth....... hopefully both teams matchup at MSG.
 
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Friarsnoop said:
Butler beat Creighton and Marquette in the last three weeks, plus DePaul and Georgetown. Again, every team in the conference has talent
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Is Al having surgery for the sports hernia? I can't imagine playing at that level with one - I've had two.
 
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Edward Sargent said:
Is Al having surgery for the sports hernia? I can't imagine playing at that level with one - I've had two.
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He's been playing with it. They had been limiting his practices. I'm surprised they haven't corrected it yet, can be quite painful.
 
UConn won a national championship in 2014 finishing as KenPom 15 and in 2011 finishing as KenPom 10. If a Louisville or Ohio State fan came in here and told us how much better their seasons were than ours because of the deep metrics, we would all lose our collective minds.

Close games or not, the results are the results. Look at the standings, tip your hat and let them enjoy it in February.

As for the predictive portion, I predict the calendar turns to March in a week. And we all know what UConn does in March.
 
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AntG168 said:
Why do you keep messaging me. I don’t want to have this conversation with you again. Do not address me about Pc again. I don’t block, but I will. You make my yard experience significantly worse. Good bye.
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My bad: I thought Friars did not have their PG Bynum for the game. My bad. First rule of holes you know...so I put down my shovel on that one.

The back and forth was suppose to be fun. I don't like where it's gone either. Putting that shovel down as well.
 
Kemba Time said:
This is such a tired narrative. UConn won a national championship in 2014 finishing as KenPom 15 and in 2011 finishing as KenPom 10. If a Louisville or Ohio State fan came in here and told us how much better their seasons were than ours because of the deep metrics, we would all lose our collective minds.

Close games or not, the results are the results. Look at the standings, tip your hat and let them enjoy it in February.

As for the predictive portion, I predict the calendar turns to March in a week. And we all know what UConn does in March.
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There’s a big difference between arguing predictive metrics during the season and after the season. I think there’s nothing wrong with using those metrics to judge teams at this point. When the season is over it’s obviously useless to bother.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
There’s a big difference between arguing predictive metrics during the season and after the season. I think there’s nothing wrong with using those metrics to judge teams at this point. When the season is over it’s obviously useless to bother.
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As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.
 
Kemba Time said:
As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.
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The two UConn runs are really the exception and not the rule. It will be interesting to see when the dust settles is providence exposing a flaw in the metrics or will the metrics prove to be correct. Shocked when I first saw how low they were ranked on kenpom
 
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Kemba Time said:
As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.
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If they entered the tournament with a 40+ kenpom and win the tournament they’d have made history. It’s never been done for a reason. Historically good teams don’t have 40+ kenpoms. It’s not the end all be all. But a top 10 team with a 40+ Kenpom and 35+ for every other predictive metric is crazy, It can’t be denied. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good. That’s not for me to say. But of I were a betting man, I’d bet those numbers prove to be more true than not come seasons end
 
KenPom
Est: 2002
Deceased: 2022

I dream of it everyday. The procession of nerds will be impressive. I particularly love that the only metric that actually matters is not considered. And these nerds actually suggest that metric doesn’t matter, incredible.

I’m convinced that like fantasy football if there were no analytics half the people that talk about them incessantly would not even watch the games.
 
FriarJ said:
KenPom
Est: 2002
Deceased: 2022

I dream of it everyday. The procession of nerds will be impressive. I particularly love that the only metric that actually matters is not considered. And these nerds actually suggest that metric doesn’t matter, incredible.

I’m convinced that like fantasy football if there were no analytics half the people that talk about them incessantly would not even watch the games.
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You think KenPom is going to die because a team is winning more than the metric predicts? Isn't it literally always the case that someone is first in the Luck category?
 
AntG168 said:
If they entered the tournament with a 40+ kenpom and win the tournament they’d have made history. It’s never been done for a reason. Historically good teams don’t have 40+ kenpoms. It’s not the end all be all. But a top 10 team with a 40+ Kenpom and 35+ for every other predictive metric is crazy, It can’t be denied. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good. That’s not for me to say. But of I were a betting man, I’d bet those numbers prove to be more true than not come seasons end
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Let’s be very clear: I am not saying Providence is winning any tournaments this year.

When a team outperforms a statistical model by an extreme amount, it’s as likely an outlier the model doesn’t account for as a fluke in team performance. KenPom’s model is just arrogant enough to call that variance “luck” instead of what it truly is.

KenPom’s algorithm is essentially attempting to do what Pathagreom W-L does in baseball. When an MLB team outperforms its Expected Record, it is usually because of an outlier such as a strong bullpen, top-heavy pitching rotation, extreme defense or weak offense that defy run differential. Or in simple terms: Being the San Francisco Giants.

Providence has that feel to this season as well, an 18-6ish say talent level performing to a 22-3 actual record because of a proven ability to win some of their losses, leaving their True Value somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn’t bet them to make win it all or make the Final Four, but you also wouldn’t bet them to lose to Washington State, Indiana or any of the other teams near them in KenPom’s model.
 
Kemba Time said:
Let’s be very clear: I am not saying Providence is winning any tournaments this year.

When a team outperforms a statistical model by an extreme amount, it’s as likely an outlier the model doesn’t account for as a fluke in team performance. KenPom’s model is just arrogant enough to call that variance “luck” instead of what it truly is.

KenPom’s algorithm is essentially attempting to do what Pathagreom W-L does in baseball. When an MLB team outperforms its Expected Record, it is usually because of an outlier such as a strong bullpen, top-heavy pitching rotation, extreme defense or weak offense that defy run differential. Or in simple terms: Being the San Francisco Giants.

Providence has that feel to this season as well, an 18-6ish say talent level performing to a 22-3 actual record because of a proven ability to win some of their losses, leaving their True Value somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn’t bet them to make win it all or make the Final Four, but you also wouldn’t bet them to lose to Washington State, Indiana or any of the other teams near them in KenPom’s model.
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Yea I’m not apart of the “their lucky” crew. I made a post last week after the nova game saying, “whatever started as luck, has now turned into supreme confidence.”

BUT……on the flip side when they continually let bad team almost beat them, no I wouldn’t “bet” they lose to one of those teams, but I also wouldn’t bet they don’t. This “comeback” kid stuff is not going to work when the pressure is turned up and it’s win or go home. Falling down 18 to DePaul and 19 to butler. Or narrowly beating UNH or Fairfield is not a good omen. I said previously any low mid major seed is chomping at the bits yo draw providence. Doesn’t mean this season hasn’t been great for the program. Just going forward I’d think they’d rather beat bad teams the way they’re supposed to be beaten.
 
FriarJ said:
KenPom
Est: 2002
Deceased: 2022

I dream of it everyday. The procession of nerds will be impressive. I particularly love that the only metric that actually matters is not considered. And these nerds actually suggest that metric doesn’t matter, incredible.

I’m convinced that like fantasy football if there were no analytics half the people that talk about them incessantly would not even watch the games.
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The analytics aren't necessarily wrong. The bold is mine.

Bleacher Report
Kerry Miller
2/15/22

Providence has identical 5-1 records against Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 and no terrible losses. The Friars won at Wisconsin (sans Johnny Davis) and at Connecticut (sans Adama Sanogo) and boast some of the best resume metrics in the country.

But their quality metrics have been weighing them down because—as most recently on display in an overtime home win against DePaul on Saturday—their margins of victory have been razor thin. Their 10 Q1/Q2 wins have come by a combined 59 points, and the two losses were by a combined 50 points.

Providence fans want you to believe all those close wins are emblematic of great coaching and a winning culture, but what the metrics see is a 21-2 team that is about 10 shots away from a .500 record. I don't know where to put the Friars and cannot wait to find out where they land in the Top 16.
 
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