Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler

[navery12]

The lowest win% yesterday was 5.1% for PC with around 3 or 4 minutes left and was up to 20% with 2 minutes left. So it was low but not as low as you're claiming. I think the luck statistic is just horribly named, that's really what it means. When you're consistently winning close games all year that's a clutch team, not a lucky team

 

[Get a Job]

But you would certainly admit that "actual record doesn't matter" in other contexts. Wagner only has 3 losses. Do you accuse KenPom of criminally underrating them at 130? You question KenPom's usefulness, but imply that a list of D1 teams sorted by win percentage would somehow be useful. No one says any metric is perfect, but in a 350+ team league where most teams don't play each other, you have to look far beyond the win percentage to have any hope at comparing the teams.

I'm not even saying I agree that 43 teams are better than PC, but I think a time-tested rigorous mathematical approach to ranking D1 teams has a lot better chance of doing so accurately than you or me.

 

[jeff99]

I mean I wouldn’t say it doesn’t matter, but beating teams without their best player isn’t the flex PC fans think it is. Had we beat you guys without Watson and a hobbled Durham you would be giving us crap for bragging about it

But people keep saying Martin was 1/2 a player that game. Why don’t they mention Bynum was 1/2 a player??? He had missed the previous 4 games. Only 1 player was rusty, not both. Oh, it’s because Martin is so good, and Bynum stinks. He was only BE player of the week 2 weeks in a row, and PC’s best player the last month.

 

[AntG168]

But people keep saying Martin was 1/2 a player that game. Why don’t they mention Bynum was 1/2 a player??? He had missed the previous 4 games. Only 1 player was rusty, not both. Oh, it’s because Martin is so good, and Bynum stinks. He was only BE player of the week 2 weeks in a row, and PC’s best player the last month.

Bynum being less than 100% didn’t matter as much.m, because they weren’t missing their best player

 

[August_West]

I’ve never thought of that, it’s definitely food for thought. No matter what though Howard needed to stick his hands in pockets at end of day.

But that’s an interesting topic now on whether metrics effect coaching. I can’t see how it doesn’t in this day and age. And to my feeble mind that’s bs. Because in my world it is win and everything else is whistling in wind.

 

[AntG168]

Lol

 

[navery12]

That's a good question, I'll say no since I think most metrics weed out garbage time stats for that reason. But I think it 100% affects coaching in the 5-10 minute range where the end of bench guys would be playing actual minutes instead of just garbage time with the walk ons

 

[navery12]

I could be wrong but I thought it was. I thought once a game was analytically finally they stopped looking. And now after typing that I'm going to say no coach is aware of all that and is playing until the end for the maximum point differential

 

[CL82]

For what it’s worth, I thought Providence got a break by catching both UConn and Seton Hall at less than full strength and got to avoid the rematch. But, you play the teams in front of you, and PC has done well. I wouldn’t mind to shot at them in the Big East tournament though.

 

[tzznandrew]

You don't seem to understand statistics. PC was down 19 yesterday: there's a very low percentage chance of winning those games regularly. Good on PC to do that. It shows a really plucky and gritty team.

I'll say this: if UConn beats Nova on Tuesday, they're going to end up with a higher NCAA seed. You have three losable games left in the regular season and I suspect the team goes 1-2.

 

[Palatine]

I have followed Sagarin for many years. It usually has slightly different rankings than the RPI or the NET.

Currently, Sagarin has Nova #8, Uconn # 16 and PeeCee #31. I think this is more in line with the actual abilities of the teams.

PeeCee has a very good coach, an extremely experienced squad laden with seniors, but the individual pieces are not off the top shelf.

 

[Get a Job]

You don't seem to understand statistics. PC was down 19 yesterday: there's a very low percentage chance of winning those games regularly. Good on PC to do that. It shows a really plucky and gritty team.

I'll say this: if UConn beats Nova on Tuesday, they're going to end up with a higher NCAA seed. You have three losable games left in the regular season and I suspect the team goes 1-2.

I do not want this, but what if UConn plays and loses to PC in the BET, and gets a higher seed in the Big Dance. Would be fun to listen to the whining.

 

[Waquoit]

Providence is a good, not great team. Certainly not 22-3 good.

You mean you're not what your record says you are now? I'm so confused.

 

[tzznandrew]

I do not want this, but what if UConn plays and loses to PC in the BET, and gets a higher seed in the Big Dance. Would be fun to listen to the whining.

That would almost certainly negate my point and give PC the higher seed. But, I guess I'm thinking they come down to their metrics.

 

[Frenemy]

I think it would be completely disingenuous to say Providence isn't a very good team. They're 22-3 for a reason, they be clutch. Teams like Butler?, not so much.

I think the disconnect is, it's hard to fathom them continuing to win 1 or 2 possession games at a rate of 10 to 1. That's unsustainable or at least that's what the math says. So sue me for pointing that out. Hence the phrase, playing with fire.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You don't seem to understand statistics. PC was down 19 yesterday: there's a very low percentage chance of winning those games regularly. Good on PC to do that. It shows a really plucky and gritty team.

I'll say this: if UConn beats Nova on Tuesday, they're going to end up with a higher NCAA seed. You have three losable games left in the regular season and I suspect the team goes 1-2.

Your last sentence shows why it is pointless that we've spent 4 pages arguing this. PC has big games to play. UConn has big games to play. They both have BET games to play. If either of them win that tournament they are getting a very low seed.

 

[Frenemy]

You mean you're not what your record says you are now? I'm so confused.

Guess I could've phrased that better. Their record is 22-3 and nothing is ever going to take that away from them, well except for maybe an NCAA scandal of some kind. They don't pass the 22-3 "eye test" though. Less confused now?

 

[his dudeness]

Providence fans in late February

 

[Frenemy]

Tearing down others is easier then lifting ourselves up, isn't that a Friar motto/rite of passage or something? You know, since lifting yourselves up to this level only seems to happen to you guys once every other decade or so.

 

[August_West]

You should enjoy your run to this point. Because we all know what happens after