Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler

[Rakkasan]

Why do you keep messaging me. I don’t want to have this conversation with you again. Do not address me about Pc again. I don’t block, but I will. You make my yard experience significantly worse. Good bye.

My bad: I thought Friars did not have their PG Bynum for the game. My bad. First rule of holes you know...so I put down my shovel on that one.

The back and forth was suppose to be fun. I don't like where it's gone either. Putting that shovel down as well.

 

[Jbirdp5]

This is such a tired narrative. UConn won a national championship in 2014 finishing as KenPom 15 and in 2011 finishing as KenPom 10. If a Louisville or Ohio State fan came in here and told us how much better their seasons were than ours because of the deep metrics, we would all lose our collective minds.

Close games or not, the results are the results. Look at the standings, tip your hat and let them enjoy it in February.

As for the predictive portion, I predict the calendar turns to March in a week. And we all know what UConn does in March.

There’s a big difference between arguing predictive metrics during the season and after the season. I think there’s nothing wrong with using those metrics to judge teams at this point. When the season is over it’s obviously useless to bother.

 

[Kemba Time]

There’s a big difference between arguing predictive metrics during the season and after the season. I think there’s nothing wrong with using those metrics to judge teams at this point. When the season is over it’s obviously useless to bother.

As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.

 

[Jbirdp5]

As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.

The two UConn runs are really the exception and not the rule. It will be interesting to see when the dust settles is providence exposing a flaw in the metrics or will the metrics prove to be correct. Shocked when I first saw how low they were ranked on kenpom

 

[AntG168]

As a predictive metric, I agree with you. To diminish what a team has accomplished using predictive metrics, I do not. If Providence keeps flipping the coin long enough, it will not keep coming up heads. But you cannot take away that the coin has come up heads 22 times out of 25

That 2014 team is a great example. Heading into the tourney that team was KenPom No. 25, but we all knew we were clearly better than that because we had a knack for winning close games (aka we had Bazz) and fans from other teams loved discounting our first Florida win as lucky because of Bazz’s shot. Turns out, we were right.

If they entered the tournament with a 40+ kenpom and win the tournament they’d have made history. It’s never been done for a reason. Historically good teams don’t have 40+ kenpoms. It’s not the end all be all. But a top 10 team with a 40+ Kenpom and 35+ for every other predictive metric is crazy, It can’t be denied. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good. That’s not for me to say. But of I were a betting man, I’d bet those numbers prove to be more true than not come seasons end

 

[Get a Job]

You think KenPom is going to die because a team is winning more than the metric predicts? Isn't it literally always the case that someone is first in the Luck category?

 

[Kemba Time]

If they entered the tournament with a 40+ kenpom and win the tournament they’d have made history. It’s never been done for a reason. Historically good teams don’t have 40+ kenpoms. It’s not the end all be all. But a top 10 team with a 40+ Kenpom and 35+ for every other predictive metric is crazy, It can’t be denied. It doesn’t mean they aren’t good. That’s not for me to say. But of I were a betting man, I’d bet those numbers prove to be more true than not come seasons end

Let’s be very clear: I am not saying Providence is winning any tournaments this year.

When a team outperforms a statistical model by an extreme amount, it’s as likely an outlier the model doesn’t account for as a fluke in team performance. KenPom’s model is just arrogant enough to call that variance “luck” instead of what it truly is.

KenPom’s algorithm is essentially attempting to do what Pathagreom W-L does in baseball. When an MLB team outperforms its Expected Record, it is usually because of an outlier such as a strong bullpen, top-heavy pitching rotation, extreme defense or weak offense that defy run differential. Or in simple terms: Being the San Francisco Giants.

Providence has that feel to this season as well, an 18-6ish say talent level performing to a 22-3 actual record because of a proven ability to win some of their losses, leaving their True Value somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn’t bet them to make win it all or make the Final Four, but you also wouldn’t bet them to lose to Washington State, Indiana or any of the other teams near them in KenPom’s model.

 

[AntG168]

Let’s be very clear: I am not saying Providence is winning any tournaments this year.

When a team outperforms a statistical model by an extreme amount, it’s as likely an outlier the model doesn’t account for as a fluke in team performance. KenPom’s model is just arrogant enough to call that variance “luck” instead of what it truly is.

KenPom’s algorithm is essentially attempting to do what Pathagreom W-L does in baseball. When an MLB team outperforms its Expected Record, it is usually because of an outlier such as a strong bullpen, top-heavy pitching rotation, extreme defense or weak offense that defy run differential. Or in simple terms: Being the San Francisco Giants.

Providence has that feel to this season as well, an 18-6ish say talent level performing to a 22-3 actual record because of a proven ability to win some of their losses, leaving their True Value somewhere in the middle.

I wouldn’t bet them to make win it all or make the Final Four, but you also wouldn’t bet them to lose to Washington State, Indiana or any of the other teams near them in KenPom’s model.

Yea I’m not apart of the “their lucky” crew. I made a post last week after the nova game saying, “whatever started as luck, has now turned into supreme confidence.”

BUT……on the flip side when they continually let bad team almost beat them, no I wouldn’t “bet” they lose to one of those teams, but I also wouldn’t bet they don’t. This “comeback” kid stuff is not going to work when the pressure is turned up and it’s win or go home. Falling down 18 to DePaul and 19 to butler. Or narrowly beating UNH or Fairfield is not a good omen. I said previously any low mid major seed is chomping at the bits yo draw providence. Doesn’t mean this season hasn’t been great for the program. Just going forward I’d think they’d rather beat bad teams the way they’re supposed to be beaten.

 

[SoFla Steve]

The analytics aren't necessarily wrong. The bold is mine.

Bleacher Report
Kerry Miller
2/15/22

Providence has identical 5-1 records against Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 and no terrible losses. The Friars won at Wisconsin (sans Johnny Davis) and at Connecticut (sans Adama Sanogo) and boast some of the best resume metrics in the country.

But their quality metrics have been weighing them down because—as most recently on display in an overtime home win against DePaul on Saturday—their margins of victory have been razor thin. Their 10 Q1/Q2 wins have come by a combined 59 points, and the two losses were by a combined 50 points.

Providence fans want you to believe all those close wins are emblematic of great coaching and a winning culture, but what the metrics see is a 21-2 team that is about 10 shots away from a .500 record. I don't know where to put the Friars and cannot wait to find out where they land in the Top 16.

 

[AntG168]

Not when that’s not an equal trade off lol. Now maybe if you guys were without Nate Watson youd have a point

 

[AntG168]

.

 

[HuskyHawk]

My bad: I thought Friars did not have their PG Bynum for the game. My bad. First rule of holes you know...so I put down my shovel on that one.

The back and forth was suppose to be fun. I don't like where it's gone either. Putting that shovel down as well.

Right. And UConn was missing two of it's 3 best players, including a guy who will probably be 1st team all BE. And it was still a close game.

PC is a good team. PC's floor is higher than UConn's. UConn's ceiling is higher than PC's. I don't think that is really controversial. PC is a very tough out, a team that doesn't see much volatility in its performance and doesn't beat itself. UConn has lost big games against tough teams because of small mistakes like missing FTs late.

 

[AntG168]

I mean I wouldn’t say it doesn’t matter, but beating teams without their best player isn’t the flex PC fans think it is. Had we beat you guys without Watson and a hobbled Durham you would be giving us crap for bragging about it

 

[Tenspro2002]

Providence's performance for the rest of the year will be one of the purest tests of "results-based vs. predictive-based" or "clutch vs. luck" in recent memory.

There have always been teams that overperform the metrics and expectations and then flame out. Can PC buck the trend?

Speaking for myself, I wouldn't want to bet on the side of "Providence is actually just clutch and will ride a bunch of close wins to a deep Tournament run".

 

[UconnU]

Congrats on the luck.

 

[navery12]

The issue is that you're entirely misunderstanding what KenPom is supposed to tell you. It's a predictive model, not descriptive, so by definition their record doesn't matter. PC is very highly rated by the descriptive metrics because they're a very good team who's won a ton of games. The predictive models see them winning a lot of close games and expect regression to come. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but just because a model doesn't like your team doesn't mean it's wrong

 

[AntG168]

No I wouldn’t. If they were missing their best player…maybe.

Kenpom is not infallible. But to act as if recent history doesn’t prove his metrics somewhat reliable is silly

 

[NCCT]

Yes.