Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Providence avoids embarrassing loss to butler

tzznandrew said:
You don't seem to understand statistics. PC was down 19 yesterday: there's a very low percentage chance of winning those games regularly. Good on PC to do that. It shows a really plucky and gritty team.

I'll say this: if UConn beats Nova on Tuesday, they're going to end up with a higher NCAA seed. You have three losable games left in the regular season and I suspect the team goes 1-2.
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I do not want this, but what if UConn plays and loses to PC in the BET, and gets a higher seed in the Big Dance. Would be fun to listen to the whining.
 
Get a Job said:
I do not want this, but what if UConn plays and loses to PC in the BET, and gets a higher seed in the Big Dance. Would be fun to listen to the whining.
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That would almost certainly negate my point and give PC the higher seed. But, I guess I'm thinking they come down to their metrics.
 
I think it would be completely disingenuous to say Providence isn't a very good team. They're 22-3 for a reason, they be clutch. Teams like Butler?, not so much.

I think the disconnect is, it's hard to fathom them continuing to win 1 or 2 possession games at a rate of 10 to 1. That's unsustainable or at least that's what the math says. So sue me for pointing that out. Hence the phrase, playing with fire.
 
tzznandrew said:
You don't seem to understand statistics. PC was down 19 yesterday: there's a very low percentage chance of winning those games regularly. Good on PC to do that. It shows a really plucky and gritty team.

I'll say this: if UConn beats Nova on Tuesday, they're going to end up with a higher NCAA seed. You have three losable games left in the regular season and I suspect the team goes 1-2.
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Your last sentence shows why it is pointless that we've spent 4 pages arguing this. PC has big games to play. UConn has big games to play. They both have BET games to play. If either of them win that tournament they are getting a very low seed.
 
Waquoit said:
You mean you're not what your record says you are now? I'm so confused.
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Guess I could've phrased that better. Their record is 22-3 and nothing is ever going to take that away from them, well except for maybe an NCAA scandal of some kind. They don't pass the 22-3 "eye test" though. Less confused now?
 
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PC is 7-1 on the road. Just dumb luck.

I could not possibly enjoy this year more and it's not just because of the 22-3 and a win on our court in Hartford. It's the bitterness. Just the way of the world these days. Tearing down others is much easier then lifting ourselves up.
 
Tearing down others is easier then lifting ourselves up, isn't that a Friar motto/rite of passage or something? You know, since lifting yourselves up to this level only seems to happen to you guys once every other decade or so.
 
FriarJ said:
PC is 7-1 on the road. Just dumb luck.

I could not possibly enjoy this year more and it's not just because of the 22-3 and a win on our court in Hartford. It's the bitterness. Just the way of the world these days. Tearing down others is much easier then lifting ourselves up.
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You should enjoy your run to this point. Because we all know what happens after :-)
 
Frenemy said:
Tearing down others is easier then lifting ourselves up, isn't that a Friar motto/rite of passage or something? You know, since lifting yourselves up to this level only seems to happen to you guys once every other decade or so.
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We haven't been at this level for sure but we have been pretty decent since you left before. 2nd most BE wins to Nova.
 
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How's it going FriarJ? It's been a while since we use to butt heads on HLoH. Newsflash, my school never left. They wouldn't let me use my HLoH name on here. No players names allowed, even if they're not current.
 
AntG168 said:
They do not have a better resume. They have a better record. I would've done a blind resume test but itd have been too obvious.

Providence:
Record: 22-3(12-2)
NET: 27

Result Based Metrics(Obviously will be their strongest Metrics):
KPI: 8
SOR: 9

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 41
KenPom: 44
SAG: 32

Quad W/L:
Quad 1: 6-2
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

NET SOS: 47
Non-Conf SOS: 119
RPI SOS: 70


Connecticut
Record: 19-7(10-5)
NET: 17

Result Based Metrics:
KPI: 22
SOR: 25

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 18
KenPom: 18
SAG: 16

Quad Wins:
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:1-0
Quad 4:7-0

NET SOS: 36
Non Conf SOS: 120
RPI SOS: 45

I mean you be the judge. We have 1 less Quad 1 win, but have played 3 more quad one games. But they have 3 more Quad 3 games. Lets play a game and take 3 of our Q1 losses and substitute them with an assumptive 3 Q3 wins. That puts our record as 25-4. Which is why the predictive Metrics favor us in a very substantial way over PC. The W-L record is deceptive when deciding who has the better resume.
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I understand the numbers but all this is never really fair to me. Especially when I think of some good mid majors that play in conferences that bring down their ratings. But back to the BE, Providence beat better top teams and our wins came against top teams missing key players. Some of our losses came against teams missing key players. So let's just beat Nova at home and this conversation would not really exist
 
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August_West said:
You’ve got a real gutsy team I give them more credit this year than pretty much anyone on this board. But you don’t have Bazz. ;-)
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Personally I am a firm believer in "you are what your record says you are" and I give them a ton of credit for what they've accomplished to date this season.

That said, to shine a little perspective (due to to 2014 end of a run comment the PC fan made), we view our results 2014-2015 season to now as unacceptable yet we have won as many tournament games as they have in that stretch.
 
AntG168 said:
They do not have a better resume. They have a better record. I would've done a blind resume test but itd have been too obvious.

Providence:
Record: 22-3(12-2)
NET: 27

Result Based Metrics(Obviously will be their strongest Metrics):
KPI: 8
SOR: 9

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 41
KenPom: 44
SAG: 32

Quad W/L:
Quad 1: 6-2
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

NET SOS: 47
Non-Conf SOS: 119
RPI SOS: 70


Connecticut
Record: 19-7(10-5)
NET: 17

Result Based Metrics:
KPI: 22
SOR: 25

Predictive Based Metrics:
BPI: 18
KenPom: 18
SAG: 16

Quad Wins:
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3:1-0
Quad 4:7-0

NET SOS: 36
Non Conf SOS: 120
RPI SOS: 45

I mean you be the judge. We have 1 less Quad 1 win, but have played 3 more quad one games. But they have 3 more Quad 3 games. Lets play a game and take 3 of our Q1 losses and substitute them with an assumptive 3 Q3 wins. That puts our record as 25-4. Which is why the predictive Metrics favor us in a very substantial way over PC. The W-L record is deceptive when deciding who has the better resume.
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Results-Based Metrics tend to be the end-all-be-all when comparing resumes. Then you flipped over to saying "hypothetically speaking if we played 3 less Q1 games and made them Q3," that's when you deflated your argument. It's alright, the Friars aren't going to hurt you anymore.
 
FriarJ said:
PC is 7-1 on the road. Just dumb luck.

I could not possibly enjoy this year more and it's not just because of the 22-3 and a win on our court in Hartford. It's the bitterness. Just the way of the world these days. Tearing down others is much easier then lifting ourselves up.
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I don’t think anyone here, or the majority of us are calling you lucky. I think you’re being defensive and taking it that way. No one believes in you. It’s ok, take it from UConn fans, those are the times where winning is the sweetest. Win when it matters and shut all of us up. The famous poet Mick Cronin once said, “winners are made in march”.
 
AntG168 said:
Not when that’s not an equal trade off lol. Now maybe if you guys were without Nate Watson youd have a point
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Bynum is the only player in the BE to win POW in back to back weeks lol. He's not exactly Jalen Gaffney.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Personally I am a firm believer in "you are what your record says you are" and I give them a ton of credit for what they've accomplished to date this season.

That said, to shine a little perspective (due to to 2014 end of a run comment the PC fan made), we view our results 2014-2015 season to now as unacceptable yet we have won as many tournament games as they have in that stretch.
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If you fill out your bracket with that mindset instead of looking for context, you’d pick the dominant mid major every season
 
AntG168 said:
If you fill out your bracket with that mindset instead of looking for context, you’d pick the dominant mid major every season
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The context that I'm using is that they play in the same conference as we do.

Do I believe that they are a better team than we are? No, not at all. They have however been able to avoid a few of the missteps that we stumbled on. You can determine your own way of measuring objectivity and fairness.
 
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If we played the type of game PC just played against Butler, we’d rightfullly be very concerned about our prospects come March. PC fans, on the other hand, are on opposing boards thumping their chests.

The difference of course is that we know what it takes to win in March and they clearly do not.
 
shizzle787 said:
Butler is not that bad. They beat bubble team Oklahoma on the road. The Big East (with the exception of Georgetown) is strong top to bottom. I make the case that if St. John’s, Butler, and DePaul played in the ACC or Pac-12, they might be tourney teams.
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Any one of those 3 teams would be tops in the AAC.
 
Frenemy said:
How's it going FriarJ? It's been a while since we use to butt heads on HLoH. Newsflash, my school never left. They wouldn't let me use my HLoH name on here. No players names allowed, even if they're not current.
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I was trolling @CL82. I caught the wrong poster. :)
 
WestHartHusk said:
If we played the type of game PC just played against Butler, we’d rightfullly be very concerned about our prospects come March. PC fans, on the other hand, are on opposing boards thumping their chests.

The difference of course is that we know what it takes to win in March and they clearly do not.
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You know, it’s a perspective thing. I would be lying if I said these games don’t have me concerned. I also would be lying if I didn’t tell you I was feeling sky high after. I also literally was because I was on a plane watching the game and upsetting the decorum of the 1st class cabin. As one of the best posters on here says, never fly coach.

I was at the Seattle U vs. New Mexico State game last night (we should all hope we don’t draw NMST). And I had about 5 people I know (who have no rooting interest) approach me to say what a great game the Butler game was and that it was amazing to watch. As I said it’s all perspective.
 
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