69-61 Baylor.
This is essentially the same team UConn played two years ago in San Antonio. They were a very good team then, and they have added a premier point guard. Baylor also played well enough to win last year's game. Baylor still has not addressed their perimeter shooting issues, but it will not matter.
Of the top eight players out on the floor Sunday, only two will be taking orders from Kim Mulkey; Which demonstrates just how transcendently dominant Brittney Griner has become. With Brittney Griner anchoring the defense, Baylor can take chances defending out on the perimeter.
Jordan Madden will likely draw the assignment on Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and will stay home on dribble penetrations.
Kelly Faris will get a ton of open looks and can be the offensive star of the game for Connecticut if she is feeling it.
Baylor is a team that does not need a long shot clock to run through their offense. Late in the clock, they can put the ball in Sims's hands or dump it down low. should the ball go in low to Ms Griner late in the clock, a double team from the weak side forcing a pass or a highly contested shot should work effectively. The problem, though, is that it leaves a Baylor player unchecked on the boards. With that in mind, I do not expect UConn to get a lot of runouts and fast breaks off of missed shots.
Brooklyn Pope had a decent game against St. Johns. Prior to Sunday, I might have suggested sloughing off of her. Now, I am not so sure.
I expect that Baylor will isolate Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis as soon as she gets into the game and challenge her to play defense, possibly pick up a foul or two. They tried it unsuccessfully against Notre Dame. They probably will not abandon this strategy. Ms Mosqueda-Lewis should be fine.
Neither Tiffany Hayes nor Caroline Doty played particularly well in San Antonio. Seeing the ball swish through the hoop early in the game should remedy any confidence issues.
If UConn's outside game is not clicking on at least half its cylinders, this will be an ugly game. If UConn shoots at around 40% from the arc and keeps the game close, they can steal it.