Petiti verbalizing contraction (Ross Dellenger article)

[noeynox]

1) A top tier of Football breaks away from the NCAA:

Initiated by the Big Ten and the SEC, all of their members are in for 34 teams total.

Big Ten - 18
SEC - 16

They add another 16 to this level (not to their conferences) by invitation, to get to 50. This list would include Notre Dame and Clemson, and vigorous debate would round out the list.

Their are a few programs in the P2 that are included that upset arguing fans, but life is not fair and the P2 isn’t kicking members to the curb.

This football system is driven by cash, is profitable, and pays players six figures as they develop towards their NFL goals.

The remaining 80 FBS football teams remain in the NCAA and compete in their own CFP. The proceeds from TV and playoffs fund athletic programs and governance. Players can earn honest NIL but school programs aren’t backing player salaries.

2) Separately, a top tier of Basketball breaks away from the NCAA. B12, B1G, Big East, ACC, WCC, PAC (?), A10, AAC.

The resulting tournament distributes its earnings to these programs, a huge increase from the current model where the NCAA eats the profits.

Like the football model, this is a for-profit league with players paid 6 figures.

3) The NCAA is reduced and returned to a governing body of student athletes. No longer funded by big money, it regulates fair play and governs championships across all sports, except the money basketball and football leagues.

Outside of Basketball and Football, the power conferences remain in the NCAA.

What network pays top dollar for the NIT or FCS playoffs?

 

[CL82]

Oh, I'm not saying they would necessarily have in-person hearings but I can see them applying pressure on their in-state institutions if needed. Take MA for example - how would it go down with all the non-power schools if BC would be part of the power schools pushing for what would jeopardize all the other MA schools' athletic programs? This could play out similarly in numerous other states (likely more severely in blue states than red)... I think the whole thing would be avoided anyway - primarily because most university presidents play nice with each other as they all belong to the same "club" and know their careers as chief executives are bettered if they don't piss off other institutions.

I doubt it.

 

[billybud]

For most larger schools, it is the football revenue that supports the non revenue programs...when football revenue diminishes, schools have cut non revenue sports.

UConn is an outlier...in 2022 the Athletic Department expenses were 23% higher than the FBS median,,,but Institutional-Government Support and Student Fees accounted for more than half that revenue.

University of Connecticut | College Athletics Database

 

[billybud]

As a comparison....revenue sources (average) for ACC AD's...(note...privates, Duke, BC, etc are not included in data base..only public)

Atlantic Coast Conference | College Athletics Database

knightnewhousedata.org

 

[ScottVib]

Not sure what your point is, but here's mine:

1. There are almost 1,100 non power schools that have athletic programs across the country as opposed to the 40 or so power schools.

1000 of those schools combined have a fan base that would fit seats left empty at a BC game. Those fans in general support other, larger schools more fervently.

There is no Congress person who wants to go back to Ohio or Texas as the person who denied OSU or the Longhorns what they wanted. That fan (voter) base dwarfs all the rest combined. There’s no win standing up for the little guy, when you can’t sell it as a win for your constituents.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Why should hoops pay for that and not football?

I'm not sure how it all went down, but maybe the thinking was that far more schools play basketball than football so spread the money from basketball out to the non-football world?

 

[Kolumbo]

Guys…football money left Stanford and California athletics — two academic supernovas with massively influential alumni and outsized power— and these schools had to BEG to get into the ACC only after a former Secretary of State and a former president of the United States got involved.

And they had to come in and beg.

Can you guys guess what is the largest state, in terms of population (which determines size of house delegation), that does not have a Power 5 team playing within its borders?

Please. You guys get only one guess at this.

Connecticut

New York is also an odd-ball given its size and being represented by only the fruit.
The New England region of course under-represented with only BCU

 

[uconndogs]

There is so much money out there for this. This is like global climate change. We have sounded the alarm so much over the last 30 years now that it is here we don’t even recognize it. Lol.

I totally agree with this. Many folks don't even realize what happened. One of college athletics most venerable conferences was wiped out in about 15 minutes. Why? Because the BiG saw the California market and said they have to have that. Market dynamics more than anything else are driving major college athletics.

And they are going to come for basketball money as well......

This has absolutely nothing at all to do with student athletes (now an oxymoron). The fanbase is only important to the extent that the largest conferences perceive they can retain and grow it - and they may very well be getting that wrong!

 

[bobbyinaz]

Why should hoops pay for that and not football?

Because football has already removed itself from the NCAA.

The CFP doesn’t share a dime of revenue with the NCAA. All of the money goes back to the conferences/schools.

Basketball money is the next step in the cash grab. My guess is they will create something similar to football. It will be a tournament/playoff outside the NCAA so they can dictate & control the money.

 

[Zissou]

What network pays top dollar for the NIT or FCS playoffs?

None

 

[Zissou]

Because football has already removed itself from the NCAA.

The CFP doesn’t share a dime of revenue with the NCAA. All of the money goes back to the conferences/schools.

Basketball money is the next step in the cash grab. My guess is they will create something similar to football. It will be a tournament/playoff outside the NCAA so they can dictate & control the money.

That is what I laid out above.

 

[Tfoyle]

No chance.

The smaller schools are not the people who generate the revenue. I mean, colleges could even decide to go for profit and set up their own college league and pay players.

There is so much money out there for this. This is like global climate change. We have sounded the alarm so much over the last 30 years now that it is here we don’t even recognize it. Lol.

If I told you in 1998 that the college landscape would look like it does, you would have said I was a genius.

But, it’s because it isn’t done yet. This is a consolidation period for athletics. It’s nearing completion. Once we find out who is included, what the money is and how it will be cut, then they will get back to how they will be organized.

And, so do I believe the big east would be included for its basketball? I do, in its current form. That is, until it isn’t.

What happens if big 12 says, Gonzaga, St. John’s, Villanova, Georgetown—- come join our basketball super leagues we are going to sell it for huge money.

Do those 4 schools say no to joining Big 12 for more than they could get in big east?

so we still get left out?

 

[uconndogs]

so we still get left out?

It's more complex than that I think. The cost to stay in the top echelon is going to be steep. Acquiring and retaining talent is going to require large and sophisticated NIL programs, big coaching salaries and ongoing investment in facilities. Even those inside the P4 will have to ask themselves if they want this as part of their athletic programs. Some must already be asking if this even remotely aligns with their overall academic missions. Said another way, does Stanford really want to be managing professional sports franchises?

I totally agree with John Silver on this. This is seismic. I continue to believe that about 40 "collegiate" athletic programs (probably the SEC and BiG) end up breaking away entirely from the NCAA and monetize their athletic programs to the greatest extent possible for their own benefit. I think they are going to regret doing it, but that's another matter.

 

[JohnFSilver]

so we still get left out?

there is a chance until you are in with the people with power.

I would still lean towards whatever happens UConn hoops has access, but they will be at a disadvantage.

Consider this - just because you are successful doesn’t mean they have to come to you. If you have a chance to secure your future long term, you take the security.

UConn needs to always like like the little engine that could. Which is why I like Hurley. Don’t be big-time. Don’t be snobs.

I am telling you from talking to people in and around the program for over 25 years, there was always a perception that their success spoke for itself. They didn’t need to make their case.

The greatest manifestation publicly of this was UConn essentially turning down a multi-game deal with Notre Dame - Notre Dame football —because Notre Dame wouldn’t visit rentschler field.

There are other things. UConn, until recently, would never take a body bag game. Why wouldn’t they do penn state home /neutral?

 

[AZHuskiePop]

people don't realize that running the other sports tournaments are pricey. It would then fall back on the member schools to fund them. Now what that means exactly, I honestly don't know.

On the other hand, I suspect a lot of NCAA money goes back into self-marketing and self-dealing of corporate officers and the like.

That not the real issue with NCCA
They have income of *$1.2 Billion
Adminstatrative cost are $44million ( That’s very good for a non profit)
$27 million for the annual convention ( this is over the top for a convention but presidents are so important )
The Sports related expenses are less than $300 million for all championships
plus $178 million to D1 BB
Close to $600 million simple goes to the 1400 members in various distributions related to academics.
That fig includes $35 million from D1 tourney’s NIT and NCAA men’s overseas rights .
That should increase to $150-200 million as the exponential growth of the winners tourney alone is EST at $80-100million

 

[AZHuskiePop]

None

Actually ESPN does pay $35,000,000 a year for
All the D1 Championships ( FCS is D1) mens and women’s the NiT and plus men’s BB overseas rights .They value the NIT at $67,000,000 ( overvalued )
That contract expires in 2024 and is extremely undervalued
due to the growth in women ‘s BB worth $80-100 million annually as a stand alone
People who think the NCAA is bloated live in an altenate reality . It probably in the top 5% most efficient non profits .A CEO of a $1,200,000,000 in revenue making $3,000,000 being overpaid is laughable
When I left Ct in 2007 there were 7 hospital administrators making more than $1 000 ,000
My problem with the NCAA is their $600,000,000 academic distribution that devalues basketball . Simply reduce the distribution and increase the value of the sport .

 

[billybud]

How does one value basketball?

Usually..the market talks...but without bidding from various media, how does one ascertain value ?

The Pac 12 thought that they were worth $50 million....the market thought much less.

 

[JohnFSilver]

None

FloSports

 

[Ldandy]

I totally agree with this. Many folks don't even realize what happened. One of college athletics most venerable conferences was wiped out in about 15 minutes. Why? Because the BiG saw the California market and said they have to have that. Market dynamics more than anything else are driving major college athletics.

And they are going to come for basketball money as well......

This has absolutely nothing at all to do with student athletes (now an oxymoron). The fanbase is only important to the extent that the largest conferences perceive they can retain and grow it - and they may very well be getting that wrong!

One of college athletics most venerable conferences was wiped out in about 15 minutes, because they had terrible leadership who fumbled every opportunity to secure their future. At different points The PAC could have bolstered their ranks with multiple relevant programs that they ultimately deemed beneath them. After USC/UCLA left they still could have accepted a fair market offer from ESPN, but badly overvalued themselves and paid a heavy price. Now the former "Conference of Champions" is scattered to the 5 winds, and it is ultimately due to their own hubris and lack of vison.

 

[KryHavok]

One of college athletics most venerable conferences was wiped out in about 15 minutes, because they had terrible leadership who fumbled every opportunity to secure their future. At different points The PAC could have bolstered their ranks with multiple relevant programs that they ultimately deemed beneath them. After USC/UCLA left they still could have accepted a fair market offer from ESPN, but badly overvalued themselves and paid a heavy price. Now the former "Conference of Champions" is scattered to the 5 winds, and it is ultimately due to their own hubris and lack of vison.

This is what has me worried about the Big East. If the PAC12 could fall apart so easily, what chance does the Big East have? Granted, the Big East doesn't have the same idiocy in its leadership (in hindsight not making a priority for Penn State in the 80s and turning away from football in the 2010s may come back to bite it). Yes, there is a collection of like-minded Catholic schools with one public university, and that collection does have legitimacy in terms of past and present basketball prowess, but is that enough to warrant inclusion for what is coming? Are we fine only because we don't see the iceberg up ahead...well, we think it's out there but (maybe) not going to impact us. I don't think we're ignorant, but neither are we omniscient enough to say we'll be fine.

 

[JohnFSilver]

This is what has me worried about the Big East. If the PAC12 could fall apart so easily, what chance does the Big East have? Granted, the Big East doesn't have the same idiocy in its leadership (in hindsight not making a priority for Penn State in the 80s and turning away from football in the 2010s may come back to bite it). Yes, there is a collection of like-minded Catholic schools with one public university, and that collection does have legitimacy in terms of past and present basketball prowess, but is that enough to warrant inclusion for what is coming? Are we fine only because we don't see the iceberg up ahead...well, we think it's out there but (maybe) not going to impact us. I don't think we're ignorant, but neither are we omniscient enough to say we'll be fine.

Hate to get philosophical. But the entire UConn in the Big East is one big exercise in the prisoner’s dilemma.

 

[CL82]

This is what has me worried about the Big East. If the PAC12 could fall apart so easily, what chance does the Big East have? Granted, the Big East doesn't have the same idiocy in its leadership (in hindsight not making a priority for Penn State in the 80s and turning away from football in the 2010s may come back to bite it). Yes, there is a collection of like-minded Catholic schools with one public university, and that collection does have legitimacy in terms of past and present basketball prowess, but is that enough to warrant inclusion for what is coming? Are we fine only because we don't see the iceberg up ahead...well, we think it's out there but (maybe) not going to impact us. I don't think we're ignorant, but neither are we omniscient enough to say we'll be fine.

I think the big east is likely to be fine because the value it brings is disproportionate to the revenue it can command. More plainly, the big east is cheap quality content. As such, it'll get snapped up. I would expect our next deal with fall somewhere between our current deal and no more than $10 million per school. Inexpensive East Coast content is a good thing for broadcasters.

 

[uconndogs]

One of college athletics most venerable conferences was wiped out in about 15 minutes, because they had terrible leadership who fumbled every opportunity to secure their future. At different points The PAC could have bolstered their ranks with multiple relevant programs that they ultimately deemed beneath them. After USC/UCLA left they still could have accepted a fair market offer from ESPN, but badly overvalued themselves and paid a heavy price. Now the former "Conference of Champions" is scattered to the 5 winds, and it is ultimately due to their own hubris and lack of vison.

The BiG wanted the SoCal market. There really wasn’t much the PAC could do.

 

[freescooter]

In my opinion, anybody that matters in football or basketball will make the cut. Anyone of value ($$$) in either sport will make it, and may save their conference mates as well.

I would not want to be the NEC, ASUN, OVC, etc.

I doubt you are right. Individual teams that move the needle might, and highlight MIGHT, make the cut. But the won’t “save their conferences.” Nobody gives a damn about Providence or DePaul or Butler regardless of how good UConn basketball is. It is possible that UConn, Gonzaga, San Diego State and a couple of others (Villanova?) get saved, but that doesn’t mean San Francisco or Creighton or Seton Hall will be because they are.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There will be one of two outcomes if the P2 breaks off:

1) Fan interest in college sports will drop off a cliff and the sport will die, or
2) the NBA and NFL will destroy them.

I don't understand why any of you bother to come up with scenarios where some subset of college sports becomes a credible threat to the pro leagues.

 

[billybud]

I remember when the NCAA split FCS from FBS....

And then there was the more recent split of FBS that creared the Autonomous Five.

And the upper tier thrived at each split.

 

[LBird33]

Hate to get philosophical. But the entire UConn in the Big East is one big exercise in the prisoner’s dilemma.

Hi John. Sincerely just curious from your perspective, as a former journalist from the sports/ college world. What is the future for UConn in this messed up world of college athletics. ? I. Recognize this is a speculative question. But I’m interested in your opinion based on your prior work experiences

 

[superjohn]

No one cares about the cinderellas. Us fans up here in Connecticut, for too long, have looked at things with these kids glasses on.

Gotta look at this landscape as an adult. This isn’t milk and cookies anymore.

No clue what you're talking about.

 

[superjohn]

The big names are still the draws..

2023...

So after getting a dream Final Four field last year, CBS and Turner Sports have something very different this weekend with Florida Atlantic, Miami, San Diego State and UConn making it to Houston.

"The public is telling us that they would rather see the blue bloods," said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, who now runs his own sports television consulting company. "The ratings support that. I think it's because they're not familiar with teams like San Diego State, Miami or FAU. There was relatively little press attention paid to those teams during the year. Connecticut has a history, but they're the only one of the four that really has had national exposure."

Last year's Final Four of Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Villanova resonated even with casual fans because it was loaded with national brands while also being Mike Krzyzewski's final tournament as the Blue Devils' coach. And so two of last year's Final Four contests rank among the three most-watched college basketball games in cable TV history. The semifinal matchup between North Carolina and Duke averaged 18.5 million on TBS and ranks second, while Kansas' comeback victory over North Carolina in the title game averaged 18.1 million.

Duh, that's how it's always been. The Cinderellas drive the earlier rounds.

 

[uconnyankee]

T

there is a chance until you are in with the people with power.

I would still lean towards whatever happens UConn hoops has access, but they will be at a disadvantage.

Consider this - just because you are successful doesn’t mean they have to come to you. If you have a chance to secure your future long term, you take the security.

UConn needs to always like like the little engine that could. Which is why I like Hurley. Don’t be big-time. Don’t be snobs.

I am telling you from talking to people in and around the program for over 25 years, there was always a perception that their success spoke for itself. They didn’t need to make their case.

The greatest manifestation publicly of this was UConn essentially turning down a multi-game deal with Notre Dame - Notre Dame football —because Notre Dame wouldn’t visit rentschler field.

There are other things. UConn, until recently, would never take a body bag game. Why wouldn’t they do penn state home /neutral?

They turned down a 10-1 series and the one game they wanted at East Rutherford. I don’t blame UConn for that