OT: World Cup

[whaler11]

I think the biggest factor was the Manaus game. As I said before, teams are something like 1-8-1 immediately after playing in Manaus. It's the biggest disadvantage in this Cup.

No doubt. Plus no Jozy. Plus Germany: They didn't skullf*|k Portugal by accident.

 

[Gurleyman]

When they got to about the 70th minute there was really no chance for Portugal to advance. Listening to JK it sounds like their goal was to attack at that point they just had no success. On the risk/reward scale once Ghana tied the game, it was certainly time for the US to throw caution to the wind - Germany was just too good.

I think you're right that if a door opened for us we would have tried to go through it. But the thing is that there was no chance for Portugal to do it on their own - without our help. If our score went 2-0 and then 3-0, the door opens for them and they may go for it against a deflated Ghana. Manchester City won the EPL with two stoppage time goals in the season finale a couple years ago.

I think Portugal scored a couple minutes before we would have sent people forward and went for the tie. If the other game is 1-1 in the 85th, we would have to think Portugal might mail it in and Ghana would throw people forward knowing they advance with a win.

 

[whaler11]

I think you're right that if a door opened for us we would have tried to go through it. But the thing is that there was no chance for Portugal to do it on their own - without our help. If our score went 2-0 and then 3-0, the door opens for them and they may go for it against a deflated Ghana. Manchester City won the EPL with two stoppage time goals in the season finale a couple years ago.

I think Portugal scored a couple minutes before we would have sent people forward and went for the tie. If the other game is 1-1 in the 85th, we would have to think Portugal might mail it in and Ghana would throw people forward knowing they advance with a win.

I would have gone all in at about 70 minutes. They were DOA if Ghana scored.

What's more likely?

Ghana scores once or Portugal makes up a four goal differential in 20 minutes?

Seems to me that isn't even a discussion.

 

[Gurleyman]

I would have gone all in at about 70 minutes. They were DOA if Ghana scored. What's more likely? Ghana scores once or Portugal makes up a four goal differential in 20 minutes? Seems to me that isn't even a discussion.

70 is too soon. You open the field up for talented finishers that early and eventually they'll score and you'll lose the chance to get the draw. It's not quite to the degree of pulling a goalie in hockey, but it is basically the same sort of principle - you do it when you're no longer concerned about giving yourself a chance later in the game. In soccer, you do it with 10 minutes left or a little less. Maybe 15 in the knockout phase when there is no other way to advance and no worries about goal differential. I'm just guessing that we would have done it in a couple more minutes if we didn't get word of the Portugal goal, but that's how I would have played it. Don't do it until you have to, since you have to worry about every contingency. Falling behind 3-0 gives Portugal a hint of life. Germany had a fresh Klose with Mueller and Ozil up there, so they could have countered us into some trouble if we gave them a bunch of chances.

 

[Waquoit]

I think all of this Donovan fanboyism makes JK's decision even wiser. Every cycle there's going to be an old guy the fans want and he's established it's about building a team, not succumbing to the cult of personality.

 

[whaler11]

70 is too soon. You open the field up for talented finishers that early and eventually they'll score and you'll lose the chance to get the draw. It's not quite to the degree of pulling a goalie in hockey, but it is basically the same sort of principle - you do it when you're no longer concerned about giving yourself a chance later in the game. In soccer, you do it with 10 minutes left or a little less. Maybe 15 in the knockout phase when there is no other way to advance and no worries about goal differential. I'm just guessing that we would have done it in a couple more minutes if we didn't get word of the Portugal goal, but that's how I would have played it. Don't do it until you have to, since you have to worry about every contingency. Falling behind 3-0 gives Portugal a hint of life. Germany had a fresh Klose with Mueller and Ozil up there, so they could have countered us into some trouble if we gave them a bunch of chances.

I think you are totally missing the probabilities involved. At the 70th minute you were more worried about Portugal than Ghana?

At the 70th minute there was like a 20-25% chance Ghana would score. There was like a 3% chance Portugal and Germany would score 4 goals combined. Ghana never rolled over even down 2-1. 3% is extremely generous.

Ian Darke's comment that it
was good for the US that Ghana scored... I guess numbers are hard? That was pure insanity.

 

[whaler11]

I think all of this Donovan fanboyism makes JK's decision even wiser. Every cycle there's going to be an old guy the fans want and he's established it's about building a team, not succumbing to the cult of personality.

It's fanboyism to want a better option than Bedoya down a goal on the brink of elimination?

Your position is we care more about Donovan than the team?

You've got that one backwards brother - Klinsmann cares more about his personal feelings than the squad he picked.

I'd love to hear what Howard, Dempsey and Bradley would say if they could be honest. Hey if you need a World Cup goal, do you want Wondo, Johannsson or Donovan checking in with 30 minutes left. Since even JK couldn't pull the trigger on the first two choices it's pretty obvious how they would answer.

 

[Gurleyman]

I think all of this Donovan fanboyism makes JK's decision even wiser. Every cycle there's going to be an old guy the fans want and he's established it's about building a team, not succumbing to the cult of personality.

Germany kept Klose around who can't play 90 and he scored tying goal against Ghana. You can argue whether Ivory Coast should have kept Drogba, Ghana should have kept Essien, or Uruguay should have kept Forlan, but a veteran presence can come in handy.

The first domino to fall in Portugal's tying goal was Yedlin not knowing what to do with the ball in the corner (he played it instead of letting it run out and then lost it easily before walking back on defense). He helped set up the go ahead goal so it wasn't like he was a net negative.

 

[whaler11]

Germany kept Klose around who can't play 90 and he scored tying goal against Ghana. You can argue whether Ivory Coast should have kept Drogba, Ghana should have kept Essien, or Uruguay should have kept Forlan, but a veteran presence can come in handy.

The first domino to fall in Portugal's tying goal was Yedlin not knowing what to do with the ball in the corner (he played it instead of letting it run out and then lost it easily before walking back on defense). He helped set up the go ahead goal so it wasn't like he was a net negative.

You want an argument?

Right before Germany scored today Davis conceeded a corner that was like 300lb Oliver Miller raising his hand asking for a sub.

Landon Donovan isn't on the team but Davis is. That's batsh!t insanity.

 

[Mots010]

Landon Donovan? Zzzzzz. Isn't he an analyst on espn or something? On to Belgium!

 

[Gurleyman]

I think you are totally missing the probabilities involved. At the 70th minute you were more worried about Portugal than Ghana? At the 70th minute there was like a 20-25% chance Ghana would score. There was like a 3% chance Portugal and Germany would score 4 goals combined. Ghana never rolled over even down 2-1. 3% is extremely generous. Ian Darke's comment that it was good for the US that Ghana scored... I guess numbers are hard? That was pure insanity.

Darke was totally wrong - that was an oh no moment for the US. I don't know what he was thinking.

The bigger thing is that you want to keep matters in your own hands as long as you can. If you throw everyone forward at 70 minutes and give up a counter, you can't draw and you're stuck scoreboard watching and hoping you don't get beat again. If goal differential is a tiebreaker, you don't want to give a couple away.

Ronaldo missed a great chance to make it 3-1 at 87 or so minutes. If Portugal wins 3-1 and we lose 3-0, Portugal goes. Both teams would tie 1-1-1 and would be -2 in goal differential. But they would have 5 goals and we'd have 4.

At some point, you need to do it and not rely on the other score to stay 1-1. But I don't think we were at that point quite yet. Ronaldo took that decision away.

 

[UConnDan97]

I think all of this Donovan fanboyism makes JK's decision even wiser. Every cycle there's going to be an old guy the fans want and he's established it's about building a team, not succumbing to the cult of personality.

Not to keep going back and forth on this point, because it gets us nowhere, but keep in mind that the guy you're calling the "old guy" is the same age as Wondolowski and Davis, give or take a couple of months. Just sayin'...

 

[whaler11]

Darke was totally wrong - that was an oh no moment for the US. I don't know what he was thinking.

The bigger thing is that you want to keep matters in your own hands as long as you can. If you throw everyone forward at 70 minutes and give up a counter, you can't draw and you're stuck scoreboard watching and hoping you don't get beat again. If goal differential is a tiebreaker, you don't want to give a couple away.

Ronaldo missed a great chance to make it 3-1 at 87 or so minutes. If Portugal wins 3-1 and we lose 3-0, Portugal goes. Both teams would tie 1-1-1 and would be -2 in goal differential. But they would have 5 goals and we'd have 4.

At some point, you need to do it and not rely on the other score to stay 1-1. But I don't think we were at that point quite yet. Ronaldo took that decision away.

They can't draw down 1-0 without pushing forward so unless you were more worried about Portugal scoring three than Ghana scoring one...

JK got it at least, they were just overmatched.

 

[UConnDan97]

I think you are totally missing the probabilities involved. At the 70th minute you were more worried about Portugal than Ghana?

At the 70th minute there was like a 20-25% chance Ghana would score. There was like a 3% chance Portugal and Germany would score 4 goals combined. Ghana never rolled over even down 2-1. 3% is extremely generous.

Ian Darke's comment that it
was good for the US that Ghana scored... I guess numbers are hard? That was pure insanity.

Speaking of percentages, your boy Silver has finished his knockout stage analysis and gives percentages for each game and the final winner (Brasil):

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Based on his game percentages, it seems to me that he is slightly undervaluing Chile, Uruguay, and Switzerland. I think all three should be dogs in their first game, but 4:1, 2:1, and 3:1 respectively sound a bit heavy to me in those first round matches. I don't bet on soccer matches, but if I did, those would be the games that I would be tempted to bet on if those odds are reflective of the betting odds...

 

[whaler11]

Speaking of percentages, your boy Silver has finished his knockout stage analysis and gives percentages for each game and the final winner (Brasil):

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Based on his game percentages, it seems to me that he is slightly undervaluing Chile, Uruguay, and Switzerland. I think all three should be dogs in their first game, but 4:1, 2:1, and 3:1 respectively sound a bit heavy to me in those first round matches. I don't bet on soccer matches, but if I did, those would be the games that I would be tempted to bet on if those odds are reflective of the betting odds...

I love the Swiss going forward. So they probably lose 3-0 next game.

 

[UConnDan97]

I love the Swiss going forward. So they probably lose 3-0 next game.

At a 3:1 dog, you might want to go with your gut on that one. I think they can go through the next round also...

 

[Gurleyman]

They can't draw down 1-0 without pushing forward so unless you were more worried about Portugal scoring three than Ghana scoring one... JK got it at least, they were just overmatched.

Right - but IMO you don't really want to push forward until some time after the 80th. Same way you might punt down a touchdown with 4 minutes left or not pull the goalie until a minute is left - you don't want to panic too early so that you give yourself a chance at the end. The added risk here is that by doing that so early that you lose 3-0, you give Portugal a chance to advance with just a 3-1 win, which Is entirely possible, especially if Ghana throws everyone forward and gives up a breakaway. That is a factor you have to consider, even if it is the less likely scenario.

 

[CallMeBruce]

It's fanboyism to want a better option than Bedoya down a goal on the brink of elimination?

Your position is we care more about Donovan than the team?

You've got that one backwards brother - Klinsmann cares more about his personal feelings than the squad he picked.

I'd love to hear what Howard, Dempsey and Bradley would say if they could be honest. Hey if you need a World Cup goal, do you want Wondo, Johannsson or Donovan checking in with 30 minutes left. Since even JK couldn't pull the trigger on the first two choices it's pretty obvious how they would answer.

This is how it goes with people who follow soccer for a few weeks every four years. They think they're being edgy by trashing the best US player ever, or something. I want Donovan on the team because he's among the very best players in the pool, and he brings qualities that no other American player does. That's all there is to it.

 

[whaler11]

This is how it goes with people who follow soccer for a few weeks every four years. They think they're being edgy by trashing the best US player ever, or something. I want Donovan on the team because he's among the very best players in the pool, and he brings qualities that no other American player does. That's all there is to it.

I think Waq is a long term fan, there are just a lot of people who think his journey was offputting like Klinsmann does.

Most humans would have had second thoughts today, but part of what makes Klinsmann successful
is that he's not totally human. So Donovan might not have crossed his mind even though 99% of people on both sides were thinking about him.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Who cares if he can pass?? Just Keep scoring goals and being a monster in the midfield. He's been our best player at this world cup.

Jones is #2 on my list to date, Howard is #1. Dempsey #3 followed by Johnson #4.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Donovan has, for his career, always been one of the most fit players in the world. He finished fourth in the beep test at camp. This nonsense about Donovan being out of shape or whatever is absurd.

Its pretty clear that Klinsmann and Donovan butted heads and that is why he is not on the team and not because of any other smokescreen. It happens. If I remember right, Messi almost did not make the 2010 Argentina team because he butted heads with Maradona so much. Nevertheless, it happens, move on and hope for the best.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

It's fanboyism to want a better option than Bedoya down a goal on the brink of elimination?

Your position is we care more about Donovan than the team?

You've got that one backwards brother - Klinsmann cares more about his personal feelings than the squad he picked.

I'd love to hear what Howard, Dempsey and Bradley would say if they could be honest. Hey if you need a World Cup goal, do you want Wondo, Johannsson or Donovan checking in with 30 minutes left. Since even JK couldn't pull the trigger on the first two choices it's pretty obvious how they would answer.

To expand on the 'need a goal now' sub, while I admire Wondo's motor and nose for the ball, at this level, he is best suited for hunting inside of the 18 yard box. Thus, he would be a great sub if the US was already pressuring the net and simply not able to get it in. He is not a creative ball handler. Thus, in the Germany game for example, where the US can barely get the ball beyond midfield, he would not be the best choice. Donovan is the creative ball guy and even if he is not in starting shape, I am sure he can grind it out for 20 minutes at the end. That is the option the US may need at some point and doesn't have unless Dempsey is coming off the bench, which is insane. Throw in the fact that Chandler, Wondo and maybe even Green (and Davis really should not) may not even see the pitch in 2014 makes me believe this was an ego driven roster move and not a need based roster move.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

You want an argument?

Right before Germany scored today Davis conceeded a corner that was like 300lb Oliver Miller raising his hand asking for a sub.

Landon Donovan isn't on the team but Davis is. That's batsh!t insanity.

..and Howard gave him a look and pointed the other way basically saying, dipsh!t, head the ball towards the German end of the field.

 

[intlzncster]

Speaking of percentages, your boy Silver has finished his knockout stage analysis and gives percentages for each game and the final winner (Brasil):

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Based on his game percentages, it seems to me that he is slightly undervaluing Chile, Uruguay, and Switzerland. I think all three should be dogs in their first game, but 4:1, 2:1, and 3:1 respectively sound a bit heavy to me in those first round matches. I don't bet on soccer matches, but if I did, those would be the games that I would be tempted to bet on if those odds are reflective of the betting odds...

Betting on soccer is how you end up in the poor house, unless your name is Wilson Raj Perumal. And you don't get caught.

 

[intlzncster]

Its pretty clear that Klinsmann and Donovan butted heads and that is why he is not on the team and not because of any other smokescreen. It happens. If I remember right, Messi almost did not make the 2010 Argentina team because he butted heads with Maradona so much. Nevertheless, it happens, move on and hope for the best.

Definitely happens. Just look at Argentina right now. Tevez isn't on the squad. You can't tell me he isn't in the top 10 players on their side. And he's been playing well this year too.

Apparently, the manager just does not like him.