OT: NFL Draft

[HuskyHawk]

I hate having so many Patriot front office/coach guys on other teams right now. That Robinson/Vrabel move to jump BB for Rashaan Evans is emblematic.

I was underwhelmed to see the Michel pick. But, I'm often underwhelmed. BB is a master at first round picks. Read an article recently that graded him out as the best in the business iirc.

I don't know enough about the tackle class to gauge the kid from Georgia. All the fans down there loved him though.

Look at your post a few spots up. You explained the Michel pick. I was surprised as well, but BB has a tendency to buck the trends in the league. Interesting article today mentioned that when he interviewed with the Krafts, he explained his approach to the salary cap. In short, the league is a copycat league, and that causes teams to overvalue certain positions from time to time. He expects to always get value by taking advantage of that.

Pats took two TEs high with Gronk and Hernandez, at a time when TEs were all but phased out in favor of spread offenses. TEs were being undervalued, and he took advantage. Last year, the Saints demonstrated what a powerful running game could do in conjunction with a solid passing attack. Michel is a lot like Kamara, but is an even better pass blocker. I also think the best way to keep Brady upright now and to survive the transition to the next guy is to run the ball more. He does it on D too. He was a 3-4 defense guy a long time, but then the league trended that way, and he went to 4-3.

Belichick is certainly not paying any attention to Mel Kiper or Prisco or Mayock or anybody's grades but his own. But he's aware of them and how the rest of the league might pick. I was sure they would not go QB first round. My guess is that the QB highest on their board hasn't been drafted yet.

 

[intlzncster]

Every year a RB comes out who is the next Adrian Peterson. Last year it was Fournette. Year before was Elliot. Then it was Gurley.

Here are the running backs with the most yards in the Super Bowl on all the Super Bowl winning teams and their cap hit from that season this millenium:
LeGarrette Blount - 1.25 mil
LeGarrette Blount - 1 mil
CJ Anderson - 0.6 mil
LeGarrette Blount - 0.25 mil
Percy Harvin - 4.9 mil / Marshawn Lynch 8.5 mil
Ray Rice - 5 mil
Ahmad Bradshaw - 2.25 mil
James Starks - 0.34 mil
Pierre Thomas - 0.46 mil
Willie Parker - 4.1 mil
Ahmad Bradshaw - 0.32 mil
Dominic Rhodes - 2 mil
Willie Parker - 0.3 mil
Corey Dillon - 1.75 mil
Antowain Smith - 2 mil
Michael Pittman - 2.2 mil
Antowain Smith - 0.5 mil
Jamal Lewis - 1.8 mil

Saquon Barkley on rookie deal
2018: $5M
2019: $7M
2020: $8M
2021: $10M

Good post. Add to the context: how many of those Superbowl winning backs were absolute studs? Not many. A lot of good backs, to be sure, but absolutely elite? Few and far between.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Heres a legit question. In the last 20 yrs what Rbs drafted in the first round have won a SB with the team that drafted them?

Off the top of my head...im thinking Jamal Lewis (Ravens), Joseph Addai (Colts), and Reggie Buss (Saints). Are there others?

I don't believe Reggie was a big piece of that team. Addai had a very short window of effectiveness. Jamal Lewis was a beast. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for a RB to win...but it's unlikely. Lewis was on a Defense/Running team now that I think about it.

Looked back a little bit. Three did it from one class (I think). Lawrence Maroney, Adai and Bush, all from 2006. Dangelo Williams also got to the Superbowl at least.

 

[nomar]

If they had a QB I wouldn’t have any problem.

What’s a realistic length of time he can be dominant? 5-6 years? He’s good enough to help them get to where they are stuck in the middle of the draft but it’s impossible to get over the hump without a QB.

They are going to waste half of his peak on cooked Eli.

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

I find it remarkable how NFL GMs keep failing to evaluate college QBs well. The vastly undervalue the mental aspect, which is what separates the great QBs. You can find a dozen guys every year who have better "measurables" than Drew Brees. They aren't better QBs. I think they need to hire Dan O.
Breaking Down the 2018 QB Draft Class | By Dan Orlovsky

I love what he says about Josh Allen "There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities."

 

[whaler11]

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

If you don’t like a QB you trade down, but sooner or later you’ve got to declare.

If I was forced to pick one of those QB’s I’d take Darnold because of Rosen’s concussions.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

What everyone is missing is that Barkley now has the ~5th highest annual contact for a RB in the entire league. You need to be a Pro Bowl talent from Day 1 to make that deal make any sort of sense.

Conversely, if you take the QB there, their salary is around the ~30th highest paid QB in the league, Left Tackle 20th highest, 20th defensive end, etc.

The argument isn't so much as to who should have been picked or who will or won't be good. The simple numbers of the situation dictate taking the player that brings the most surplus value to your franchise, so that in free agency you don't have to spend $15M/year on 30 year old Nate Solder or pay $28M/year for Kirk Cousins.

Rather draft your tackle, defensive end or QB, and then you still can go out and get a RB for ~$3M/$5M in free agency.

 

[intlzncster]

I find it remarkable how NFL GMs keep failing to evaluate college QBs well. The vastly undervalue the mental aspect, which is what separates the great QBs. You can find a dozen guys every year who have better "measurables" than Drew Brees. They aren't better QBs. I think they need to hire Dan O.
Breaking Down the 2018 QB Draft Class | By Dan Orlovsky

I love what he says about Josh Allen "There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities."

I think it's hard for everybody. Who out there evaluates QBs properly? I mean, if you rank QBs every year pre draft, and then look at it 5 years later...you just have to laugh.

 

[intlzncster]

What everyone is missing is that Barkley now has the ~5th highest annual contact for a RB in the entire league. You need to be a Pro Bowl talent from Day 1 to make that deal make any sort of sense.

Conversely, if you take the QB there, their salary is around the ~30th highest paid QB in the league, Left Tackle 20th highest, 20th defensive end, etc.

The argument isn't so much as to who should have been picked or who will or won't be good. The simple numbers of the situation dictate taking the player that brings the most surplus value to your franchise, so that in free agency you don't have to spend $15M/year on 30 year old Nate Solder or pay $28M/year for Kirk Cousins.

Rather draft your tackle, defensive end or QB, and then you still can go out and get a RB for ~$3M/$5M in free agency.

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

 

[EBonz30]

Because I don't think he'll be any good.

Agreed, only the Browns could mess up having the first and fourth pick!

 

[EBonz30]

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

I think Barkley will be the best running back in the NFL, I would’ve probably took Darnold, but I believe Barkley has the best shot to be a hall of Famer in the entire draft. It’s hard to criticize the pick.

 

[intlzncster]

I think Barkley will be the best running back in the NFL, I would’ve probably took Darnold, but I believe Barkley has the best shot to be a hall of Famer in the entire draft. It’s hard to criticize the pick.

If it was that easy to pick HOF out of the draft, people would do it all the time. You just don't know.

Even with record breaking numbers, it would be hard to outperform the contract at his position.

Think about paying an elite QB $45m per year. That's what's happening.

I'm not a Giants fan, but I am certainly going to enjoy watching him.

 

[jibsey]

The Giants offensive line is not exactly good so if Barkely can gain yardage it will show how truly great he is, but I'm a bit skeptical he can do it. It's been a big piece missing from the Giants offense for years and even though it is a pass league you still need to run the ball.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

I'm seeing people saying things along the likes of who would you have taken and projecting his performance.

I think this isn't about that at all.

 

[champs99and04]

I'm an Eagles fan who kept waiting for the Benny Hill music to start playing while our division rivals were picking last night. The Giants took a RB, the Redskins took a DT, and the Cowboys took an ILB. The NFC East of the next ten years is about to become the AFC East of the last ten. Thank you for your six free wins and please drive through.

If I were a Giants fan, I wouldn't be upset that we passed on a quarterback, I'd be upset that we passed on Bradley Chubb. You had your chance to slide him in for JPP and wreck quarterbacks for the next decade. That's always been your blueprint, from Taylor to Strahan to Tuck and Umenyiora. Even if Barkley turns out to be Le'Veon Bell, you'll take the stud edge rusher every time. The gap between Barkley and say, a prime DeMarco Murray is so much less than it is between Von Miller and your average edge rusher. I'm not saying a great back isn't still extremely valuable, but they tend to be the final piece rather than the bellwether. It's your ultimate turnstyle position. Many of the great ones are discovered by accident.

 

[outlaw]

Giants NEED to take Connor Williams or Will Hernandez tonight at 34

 

[KembaStepback]

Looked back a little bit. Three did it from one class (I think). Lawrence Maroney, Adai and Bush, all from 2006. Dangelo Williams also got to the Superbowl at least.

So basically the answer is not many at all. Maroney was a big time bust. It just doesn't seem to make sense to take a RB in round 1. Not only is it a position with short careers, but also its very dependent on OL/blocking. I just cant justify it.

I hope hes awesome and breaks the trend and wins us a ton of SB's but im not optimistic.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I'm actually shocked he was even considered a #1 pick.

It's because he tests far better than any of the other QB prospects when it comes to skills prioritized in NFL quarterbacks. The analytic guys - who hate Allen across the board by the way - like Mayfield a lot. It's cool that Josh Allen can throw the ball 80 yards. That will be exceptionally useful in a league where QBs rarely throw deep balls.

 

[HuskyHawk]

So basically the answer is not many at all. Maroney was a big time bust. It just doesn't seem to make sense to take a RB in round 1. Not only is it a position with short careers, but also its very dependent on OL/blocking. I just cant justify it.

I hope hes awesome and breaks the trend and wins us a ton of SB's but im not optimistic.

Maybe, but I think that the "how many won a superbowl" is a pretty useless measure. Do it with QBs. You get some. Both Mannings, Rodgers, but more that were not 1st rounders. I'd ask how many helped their team win, and a lot did.

I think Barkley was not a great pick, because I think any top ten pick is probably a bad pick financially, and based on what you'd get trading back. Those teams tend to have lots of holes. I think the first round salary scale is such that it's almost a disadvantage to pick at the top. This is not the NBA, where the draft can be top heavy and you only play 10 guys.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's because he tests far better than any of the other QB prospects when it comes to skills prioritized in NFL quarterbacks. The analytic guys - who hate Allen across the board by the way - like Mayfield a lot. It's cool that Josh Allen can throw the ball 80 yards. That will be exceptionally useful in a league where QBs rarely throw deep balls.

Did you read Dan O's write up on these guys? Very solid.

In the end, I think the Browns took Mayfield because Darnold has less personality, and Mayfield is a leader. It's Cleveland. They have sucked forever. They need a guy who can will his teammates to win. He's the guy most likely to bring those intangibles. He's very accurate and doesn't turn the ball over. He will have a problem with height, and he isn't as mobile as Wilson that they can roll him out.

 

[EBonz30]

If it was that easy to pick HOF out of the draft, people would do it all the time. You just don't know.

Even with record breaking numbers, it would be hard to outperform the contract at his position.

Think about paying an elite QB $45m per year. That's what's happening.

I'm not a Giants fan, but I am certainly going to enjoy watching him.

Every single person I have talk to as well as every analyst I’ve seen, 50+ people and they all said Barkley is the best talent in the draft, that should tell you something.

The famous scout Gil Brandt stated he’s the greatest running back he’s scouted since Adrian Peterson.

 

[auror]

Every single person I have talk to as well as every analyst I’ve seen, 50+ people and they all said Barkley is the best talent in the draft, that should tell you something.

The famous scout Gil Brandt stated he’s the greatest running back he’s scouted since Adrian Peterson.

He will have to be. If he's literally anything less than All Pro in his rookie season, you've lost value.

Because RBs can have relative quick impact on the league (productive as a rookie, etc.) and are more interchangeable than most positions, you can really take advantage of cheap late round rookie deals and cut them loose after. But because the contract market for RBs has been depressed by this fact, a top draft pick just costs too much compared to what is available on the open market.

Barkley will have the most guaranteed money for a RB in the entire league and a top 4 cap hit per year. Think about that. Even if he plays like even an above average or good NFL starter as a rookie, you're out substantial value. Potential Hall of Famers like LeSean McCoy got 18 million guaranteed and you're going to give Barkley 30 million. Carlos Hyde, a good NFL starter, got a 3 year deal with 8 million in total guarantees and a 5 mil cap hit per year.

Why not just sign proven contributors Telvin Coleman or Jay Ajayi next offseason for literally half what you signed Barkley to?

 

[Lefty2one]

I find it remarkable how NFL GMs keep failing to evaluate college QBs well. The vastly undervalue the mental aspect, which is what separates the great QBs. You can find a dozen guys every year who have better "measurables" than Drew Brees. They aren't better QBs. I think they need to hire Dan O.
Breaking Down the 2018 QB Draft Class | By Dan Orlovsky

I love what he says about Josh Allen "There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities."

Like most fans, I will be stunned if Josh Allen is a good QB. Hell, I'll be surprised if he's still in the league in five years. This article is great...

There’s almost no reason to believe Josh Allen will work. Almost.

For all the hype about Allen's arm strength he had the lowest completion percentage on yards of 15+ throws compared to the other four 1st round QBs, was the least-aggressive at throwing past the sticks in 3rd down situations, completed only one pass all year of 40+ yards (of 9 attempts), and on average had the most time in the pocket of the five first round QBs and Mason Rudolph. Sure, some of that is coaching/playcalling but I need to see more from a guy when he's facing a lower level of competition.


I spent part of my day watching Darnold highlights (I'd previously stuck to lowlights) in attempt to get myself excited as a Jets fan. I feel slightly better, mainly because outside of a brutal 4-game stretch this year he's been great. He's not Mark Sanchez at least. I like the comparisons of Philip Rivers, which on one hand is good because that means he'll be our best QB since Joe Willie but at the same time I think Rivers is horribly overrated and he's never won a thing. Time will tell...

 

[champs99and04]

It's because he tests far better than any of the other QB prospects when it comes to skills prioritized in NFL quarterbacks. The analytic guys - who hate Allen across the board by the way - like Mayfield a lot. It's cool that Josh Allen can throw the ball 80 yards. That will be exceptionally useful in a league where QBs rarely throw deep balls.

Allen concerns me for that reason. The thing I worry about with Mayfield is that he just spent the last couple years playing behind the best offensive line in college football. Plus, he's over two years older than Darnold. I know age isn't as big of a factor with quarterbacks, but that's still a significant amount of time developmentally. If I had told someone a year ago at this time that Mayfield would be drafted ahead of Darnold, I'd have been laughed at. I'm always leery of players who make this big of a leap in such a short time span, especially when they play with that sort of talent. Statistically he's similar to what Sam Bradford did as a sophomore.

 

[navery12]

Will Hernandez is a home run pick