OT: NFL Draft

[intlzncster]

The football guru's on NFL Network said the same thing They didn't see a franchise QB in the lot.

This right here means there's going to be two probowlers in this class.

 

[intlzncster]

I'd rather pay Barkley $13M than pay two freaking bits for every single RB we've had since 1997 not named Tiki or Brandon.

If he's worth the money, great. If he's not, this is the NFL, not the NBA.

I'm surprised at the hand-wringing over getting a stud.

OK, but you are basing it on past regimes. It's not about the jersey, it's about the people running it. If Gettleman has an eye for talent, he should be able to pick up a few quality running backs.

Nobody argues that Barkley isn't going to be great, but even if he puts up HOF numbers, he doesn't outperform that contract. Each one of those millions takes away from multiple other positions. It's the position vs the contract that is the problem.

The best move for most teams in the Top 3 would have been to trade. Might have been able to swap that pick for at two 1's plus a 2/3.

Closest trade we saw was for the #7:

• Buccaneers send: Picks No. 7, 255
• Bills send: Picks No. 12, 53, 56

And this is coming from a guy who firmly believes taking the best player available is almost always the right move, regardless of need. Football's structure lends to slightly different strategies for QBs and positions at the top of the draft.

If the Best player in the draft is some other worldly kicker, you don't take him at the top of the draft. Obviously being facetious to make a point.

 

[JMick]

OK, but you are basing it on past regimes. It's not about the jersey, it's about the people running it. If Gettleman has an eye for talent, he should be able to pick up a few quality running backs.

Nobody argues that Barkley isn't going to be great, but even if he puts up HOF numbers, he doesn't outperform that contract. Each one of those millions takes away from multiple other positions. It's the position vs the contract that is the problem.

The best move for most teams in the Top 3 would have been to trade. Might have been able to swap that pick for at two 1's plus a 2/3.

Closest trade we saw was for the #7:

• Buccaneers send: Picks No. 7, 255
• Bills send: Picks No. 12, 53, 56

Supposedly we weren't getting an extra first and second which is what we wanted. If you don't get what you want then you take your guy.

 

[auror]

That argument is illogical. You have to look at each prospect individually. You can't ding him because the media has hyped up running backs the last few years

You are correct when personally assessing something as a possible source of bias. When a person in an argument is advocating for something based on an expert's opinion (appeal to authority/accomplishment), it is fair to criticize the source of the opinion as having a poor track record.

Go ahead and take a look at the rest of the argument as well.

 

[intlzncster]

Supposedly we weren't getting an extra first and second which is what we wanted. If you don't get what you want then you take your guy.

I've no inside info on that, but I've zero doubt a team would never admit they could have traded. 'we had no choice' is normal cover for these sorts of things. I don't think any of us could know exactly what was on offer, or if the Giants priced it too high to begin with.

I mean you got a great player, but you'll be sacrificing on the Oline/Dline/backfield etc to pay him. When all those positions are far more important than running back in the modern game.

There's a lot of what ifs. If he gets hurt, you're cooked. In order to meet the salary requirements, you need to hit multiple homeruns in the Draft at those other positions over the next few years. Which is next to impossible without a run of fantastic luck.

It will be fascinating to watch it all play out over the next few years. That's the thing that's most interesting about football imo.

 

[JMick]

I've no inside info on that, but I've zero doubt a team would never admit they could have traded. 'we had no choice' is normal cover for these sorts of things. I don't think any of us could know exactly what was on offer, or if the Giants priced it too high to begin with.

I mean you got a great player, but you'll be sacrificing on the Oline/Dline/backfield etc to pay him. When all those positions are far more important than running back in the modern game.

There's a lot of what ifs. If he gets hurt, you're cooked. In order to meet the salary requirements, you need to hit multiple homeruns in the Draft at those other positions over the next few years. Which is next to impossible without a run of fantastic luck.

It will be fascinating to watch it all play out over the next few years. That's the thing that's most interesting about football imo.

Yeah idk if that's true but I saw a quote from someone that said we were looking for a first and second and that the offers to move down weren't good enough. Who knows. The NFL is all about entertainment for me and I think Barkley will be entertaining so I'm generally happy with the decision.

 

[nomar]

And that’s the kind of 1978 thinking that kills your franchise.

Or it's 2020 thinking. Get a new kind of RB who can run routes like a WR but also tote the rock.

If you or anybody else who's upset with the pick wants to try to feel better, here's a nice article from a couple days talking about how special Barkley could be:

What Is Saquon Barkley Worth in the Modern NFL?

 

[nomar]

OK, but you are basing it on past regimes. It's not about the jersey, it's about the people running it. If Gettleman has an eye for talent, he should be able to pick up a few quality running backs.

Nobody argues that Barkley isn't going to be great, but even if he puts up HOF numbers, he doesn't outperform that contract. Each one of those millions takes away from multiple other positions. It's the position vs the contract that is the problem.

The best move for most teams in the Top 3 would have been to trade. Might have been able to swap that pick for at two 1's plus a 2/3.

Closest trade we saw was for the #7:

• Buccaneers send: Picks No. 7, 255
• Bills send: Picks No. 12, 53, 56

And this is coming from a guy who firmly believes taking the best player available is almost always the right move, regardless of need. Football's structure lends to slightly different strategies for QBs and positions at the top of the draft.

If the Best player in the draft is some other worldly kicker, you don't take him at the top of the draft. Obviously being facetious to make a point.

If you look at the post starting this thread, I said my first choice would be to trade back inside the top-10. It's hard to tell from DG's comments on how serious the offers were. If he puts up HOF numbers, we're in good shape and nobody will be second-guessing this. Let's hope...

 

[intlzncster]

If the owner is dictating like that they are screwed anyway.

That. But that is how you become the Browns. Zero idea if that rumor is true mind you. Hopefully for the Giants sake it is not.

 

[intlzncster]

I think RB is undervalued currently. The league doesn't always value things correctly. There is too much groupthink.

Why? They don't last long, are injury prone in season, and it's a predominantly passing league. Add that to the cap, and it's no wonder they aren't valued as highly.

The best backs these days are quasi receivers and are exceptional pass blockers. (along with traditional skills)

 

[whaler11]

Or it's 2020 thinking. Get a new kind of RB who can run routes like a WR but also tote the rock.

If you or anybody else who's upset with the pick wants to try to feel better, here's a nice article from a couple days talking about how special Barkley could be:

What Is Saquon Barkley Worth in the Modern NFL?

If they had a QB I wouldn’t have any problem.

What’s a realistic length of time he can be dominant? 5-6 years? He’s good enough to help them get to where they are stuck in the middle of the draft but it’s impossible to get over the hump without a QB.

They are going to waste half of his peak on cooked Eli.

 

[intlzncster]

Patriots had interesting picks.

#23 Wynn a Tackle that could be better at guard. But he excels in pass protection. My guess, they plug him in at LT. If he is great, leave him there. If not, Shaq Mason's contract ends this year, they let him go, plug Wynn in at G and get a new LT. The versatility adds value.

#31 Sonny Michel. Interesting pick. I knew the Pats would let Lewis walk, and hoped they would sign Rex. They did. I think they may let White walk as well. I think Belichick sees a lot of new value in 3 down RBs, from a scheme perspective. Guys who can get yards on first down, or pass block, or catch the ball. Michel does all of that, and was the highest graded back in pass blocking. He's also got great hands. It's the versatility that brings value.

My predictions for round 2. A LB or DE plus a QB. I think it will be Rudolph or Falk, more like Falk with that second pick. Just a hunch. Looking at what Falk did at WSU, he was arguably better than Darnold or Rosen playing in the same conference.

I hate having so many Patriot front office/coach guys on other teams right now. That Robinson/Vrabel move to jump BB for Rashaan Evans is emblematic.

I was underwhelmed to see the Michel pick. But, I'm often underwhelmed. BB is a master at first round picks. Read an article recently that graded him out as the best in the business iirc.

I don't know enough about the tackle class to gauge the kid from Georgia. All the fans down there loved him though.

 

[intlzncster]

Every year a RB comes out who is the next Adrian Peterson. Last year it was Fournette. Year before was Elliot. Then it was Gurley.

Don't forget Trent Richardson! haha

 

[intlzncster]

The NFL is all about entertainment for me and I think Barkley will be entertaining so I'm generally happy with the decision.

That is certainly true. He'll probably be a lot of fun to watch.

 

[KembaStepback]

Heres a legit question. In the last 20 yrs what Rbs drafted in the first round have won a SB with the team that drafted them?

Off the top of my head...im thinking Jamal Lewis (Ravens), Joseph Addai (Colts), and Reggie Buss (Saints). Are there others?

I don't believe Reggie was a big piece of that team. Addai had a very short window of effectiveness. Jamal Lewis was a beast. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for a RB to win...but it's unlikely. Lewis was on a Defense/Running team now that I think about it.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I hate having so many Patriot front office/coach guys on other teams right now. That Robinson/Vrabel move to jump BB for Rashaan Evans is emblematic.

I was underwhelmed to see the Michel pick. But, I'm often underwhelmed. BB is a master at first round picks. Read an article recently that graded him out as the best in the business iirc.

I don't know enough about the tackle class to gauge the kid from Georgia. All the fans down there loved him though.

Look at your post a few spots up. You explained the Michel pick. I was surprised as well, but BB has a tendency to buck the trends in the league. Interesting article today mentioned that when he interviewed with the Krafts, he explained his approach to the salary cap. In short, the league is a copycat league, and that causes teams to overvalue certain positions from time to time. He expects to always get value by taking advantage of that.

Pats took two TEs high with Gronk and Hernandez, at a time when TEs were all but phased out in favor of spread offenses. TEs were being undervalued, and he took advantage. Last year, the Saints demonstrated what a powerful running game could do in conjunction with a solid passing attack. Michel is a lot like Kamara, but is an even better pass blocker. I also think the best way to keep Brady upright now and to survive the transition to the next guy is to run the ball more. He does it on D too. He was a 3-4 defense guy a long time, but then the league trended that way, and he went to 4-3.

Belichick is certainly not paying any attention to Mel Kiper or Prisco or Mayock or anybody's grades but his own. But he's aware of them and how the rest of the league might pick. I was sure they would not go QB first round. My guess is that the QB highest on their board hasn't been drafted yet.

 

[intlzncster]

Every year a RB comes out who is the next Adrian Peterson. Last year it was Fournette. Year before was Elliot. Then it was Gurley.

Here are the running backs with the most yards in the Super Bowl on all the Super Bowl winning teams and their cap hit from that season this millenium:
LeGarrette Blount - 1.25 mil
LeGarrette Blount - 1 mil
CJ Anderson - 0.6 mil
LeGarrette Blount - 0.25 mil
Percy Harvin - 4.9 mil / Marshawn Lynch 8.5 mil
Ray Rice - 5 mil
Ahmad Bradshaw - 2.25 mil
James Starks - 0.34 mil
Pierre Thomas - 0.46 mil
Willie Parker - 4.1 mil
Ahmad Bradshaw - 0.32 mil
Dominic Rhodes - 2 mil
Willie Parker - 0.3 mil
Corey Dillon - 1.75 mil
Antowain Smith - 2 mil
Michael Pittman - 2.2 mil
Antowain Smith - 0.5 mil
Jamal Lewis - 1.8 mil

Saquon Barkley on rookie deal
2018: $5M
2019: $7M
2020: $8M
2021: $10M

Good post. Add to the context: how many of those Superbowl winning backs were absolute studs? Not many. A lot of good backs, to be sure, but absolutely elite? Few and far between.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Heres a legit question. In the last 20 yrs what Rbs drafted in the first round have won a SB with the team that drafted them?

Off the top of my head...im thinking Jamal Lewis (Ravens), Joseph Addai (Colts), and Reggie Buss (Saints). Are there others?

I don't believe Reggie was a big piece of that team. Addai had a very short window of effectiveness. Jamal Lewis was a beast. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for a RB to win...but it's unlikely. Lewis was on a Defense/Running team now that I think about it.

Looked back a little bit. Three did it from one class (I think). Lawrence Maroney, Adai and Bush, all from 2006. Dangelo Williams also got to the Superbowl at least.

 

[nomar]

If they had a QB I wouldn’t have any problem.

What’s a realistic length of time he can be dominant? 5-6 years? He’s good enough to help them get to where they are stuck in the middle of the draft but it’s impossible to get over the hump without a QB.

They are going to waste half of his peak on cooked Eli.

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

I find it remarkable how NFL GMs keep failing to evaluate college QBs well. The vastly undervalue the mental aspect, which is what separates the great QBs. You can find a dozen guys every year who have better "measurables" than Drew Brees. They aren't better QBs. I think they need to hire Dan O.
Breaking Down the 2018 QB Draft Class | By Dan Orlovsky

I love what he says about Josh Allen "There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities."

 

[whaler11]

I'm still not sure any of those 4 guys are better than Webb. Obviously they're all rated higher than he was -- although in the case of Allen, I'm at a loss as to why -- but none of them strikes me as a lock to be a good QB1.

Believe me, if Andrew Luck was there at #2, I would have wanted him. I would have been OK with Darnold, as he seemed to be the Giants' favorite, and was my favorite too, but if they'd taken him I'd be nervously reading a lot of articles trying to talk myself into believing he'll be good.

Darnold tailed off.

Allen's numbers, against weak competition, were horrid.

Rosen's maybe one big hit away from retirement, which is troubling since he's the guy most likely to be smacked in the head.

And Mayfield's sure got spunk, but there are questions about his maturity, size and reads.

Did you like any of those guys a lot? Or Jackson? He was the only guy the Giants could have traded back for and gotten, it seems.

If you don’t like a QB you trade down, but sooner or later you’ve got to declare.

If I was forced to pick one of those QB’s I’d take Darnold because of Rosen’s concussions.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

What everyone is missing is that Barkley now has the ~5th highest annual contact for a RB in the entire league. You need to be a Pro Bowl talent from Day 1 to make that deal make any sort of sense.

Conversely, if you take the QB there, their salary is around the ~30th highest paid QB in the league, Left Tackle 20th highest, 20th defensive end, etc.

The argument isn't so much as to who should have been picked or who will or won't be good. The simple numbers of the situation dictate taking the player that brings the most surplus value to your franchise, so that in free agency you don't have to spend $15M/year on 30 year old Nate Solder or pay $28M/year for Kirk Cousins.

Rather draft your tackle, defensive end or QB, and then you still can go out and get a RB for ~$3M/$5M in free agency.

 

[intlzncster]

I find it remarkable how NFL GMs keep failing to evaluate college QBs well. The vastly undervalue the mental aspect, which is what separates the great QBs. You can find a dozen guys every year who have better "measurables" than Drew Brees. They aren't better QBs. I think they need to hire Dan O.
Breaking Down the 2018 QB Draft Class | By Dan Orlovsky

I love what he says about Josh Allen "There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities."

I think it's hard for everybody. Who out there evaluates QBs properly? I mean, if you rank QBs every year pre draft, and then look at it 5 years later...you just have to laugh.

 

[intlzncster]

What everyone is missing is that Barkley now has the ~5th highest annual contact for a RB in the entire league. You need to be a Pro Bowl talent from Day 1 to make that deal make any sort of sense.

Conversely, if you take the QB there, their salary is around the ~30th highest paid QB in the league, Left Tackle 20th highest, 20th defensive end, etc.

The argument isn't so much as to who should have been picked or who will or won't be good. The simple numbers of the situation dictate taking the player that brings the most surplus value to your franchise, so that in free agency you don't have to spend $15M/year on 30 year old Nate Solder or pay $28M/year for Kirk Cousins.

Rather draft your tackle, defensive end or QB, and then you still can go out and get a RB for ~$3M/$5M in free agency.

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

 

[EBonz30]

Because I don't think he'll be any good.

Agreed, only the Browns could mess up having the first and fourth pick!

 

[EBonz30]

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

I think Barkley will be the best running back in the NFL, I would’ve probably took Darnold, but I believe Barkley has the best shot to be a hall of Famer in the entire draft. It’s hard to criticize the pick.

 

[intlzncster]

I think Barkley will be the best running back in the NFL, I would’ve probably took Darnold, but I believe Barkley has the best shot to be a hall of Famer in the entire draft. It’s hard to criticize the pick.

If it was that easy to pick HOF out of the draft, people would do it all the time. You just don't know.

Even with record breaking numbers, it would be hard to outperform the contract at his position.

Think about paying an elite QB $45m per year. That's what's happening.

I'm not a Giants fan, but I am certainly going to enjoy watching him.

 

[jibsey]

The Giants offensive line is not exactly good so if Barkely can gain yardage it will show how truly great he is, but I'm a bit skeptical he can do it. It's been a big piece missing from the Giants offense for years and even though it is a pass league you still need to run the ball.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Not for nothing, but a number of people are making this argument.

I'm seeing people saying things along the likes of who would you have taken and projecting his performance.

I think this isn't about that at all.

 

[champs99and04]

I'm an Eagles fan who kept waiting for the Benny Hill music to start playing while our division rivals were picking last night. The Giants took a RB, the Redskins took a DT, and the Cowboys took an ILB. The NFC East of the next ten years is about to become the AFC East of the last ten. Thank you for your six free wins and please drive through.

If I were a Giants fan, I wouldn't be upset that we passed on a quarterback, I'd be upset that we passed on Bradley Chubb. You had your chance to slide him in for JPP and wreck quarterbacks for the next decade. That's always been your blueprint, from Taylor to Strahan to Tuck and Umenyiora. Even if Barkley turns out to be Le'Veon Bell, you'll take the stud edge rusher every time. The gap between Barkley and say, a prime DeMarco Murray is so much less than it is between Von Miller and your average edge rusher. I'm not saying a great back isn't still extremely valuable, but they tend to be the final piece rather than the bellwether. It's your ultimate turnstyle position. Many of the great ones are discovered by accident.