OT - NBA off-season thread

[Walker11]

I think people in this thread are now underrating Hayward.

I shouldn't have said he was overrated without knowing how people actually subjectively rated him. Damn good player. Probably somewhere in mid 20's to late 20's overall.

 

[NielsisGood]

I think "in the league" is a lot less important than "in the Eastern Conference." They are set up to the best in the EC, after this coming season or the next, for years to come. And I don't know why you say "locked in." That supposes the Celts can't make any moves or draft an Ayton/Porter who turns into a monster. Betting on the draft is risky, obviously, but next year is the deepest big man draft in history.

Sure, they'll be the best in the East whenever LeBron leaves or gets old (provided the Celts keep Isaiah which is no lock IMO) and would still be heavy underdogs against whoever they play in the finals. This move locks them up cap space wise, and I don't think paying Horford/Hayward 60 mil per year wins any championships.

I'd hold off on predicting next year's draft before any of those kids have played a single college game though. Wiggins was the next surefire Lebron/Durant before he got to Kansas.

 

[Walker11]

I'm saying the West is so overrated beyond the Dubs, and it is

I agree it's deeper overall, but my statement is the East has the best teams 2-5, I don't see a team other than Houston that can possibly be in that group. Spurs will take a huge step back this year. Manu gone, LA, Tyler Phommachanh, Danny Green old & slow

People have been saying this about the Spurs every year. Not going to happen, especially with Kawhi establishing himself as a top 5 player. Manu isn't gone, Tyler Phommachanh sucked last year and they still won 60. LA and DG aren't going to fall off a cliff @ 30 years old. They are going to finish with a top 3 record in the league, guaranteed. Simmons and Mills improve every year and I don't see that changing. Why would you ever bet against this team (in the regular season at least), especially when they don't lose anything valuable.

I think the top 10 goes something like this...
Warriors

(big gap)

Cavs
Spurs
Rockets
Celtics
Washington
Toronto
OKC

The bottom 2 will probably be some combination of the rising Bucks, Nuggets, or Wolves IMO.

 

[NielsisGood]

They should be looking to move Jaylen Brown, he's awful, but some in league like his athleticism, so might be able to get more assets back

No way, there is a crazy bias towards the West

4 of the 5!best teams in the League are in the East, problem is none can beat the Dubs so somehow the West is considered dominant even though the only team they lost a game to or were remotely challenged in the playoffs was an Eastern team

You can stop now.

 

[JSM1970]

The Spurs will not be good next year

No idea on Houston's ability to have CP3-Harden play together

People have been saying this about the Spurs every year. Not going to happen, especially with Kawhi establishing himself as a top 5 player. Manu isn't gone, Tyler Phommachanh sucked last year and they still won 60. LA and DG aren't going to fall off a cliff @ 30 years old. They are going to finish with a top 3 record in the league, guaranteed. Simmons and Mills improve every year and I don't see that changing. Why would you ever bet against this team (in the regular season at least), especially when they don't lose anything valuable.

I think the top 10 goes something like this...
Warriors

(big gap)

Cavs
Spurs
Rockets
Celtics
Washington
Toronto
OKC

The bottom 2 will probably be some combination of the rising Bucks, Nuggets, or Wolves IMO.

 

[Walker11]

The Spurs will not be good next year

No idea on Houston's ability to have CP3-Harden play together

Waste of my time.

 

[navery12]

People have been saying this about the Spurs every year. Not going to happen, especially with Kawhi establishing himself as a top 5 player. Manu isn't gone, Tyler Phommachanh sucked last year and they still won 60. LA and DG aren't going to fall off a cliff @ 30 years old. They are going to finish with a top 3 record in the league, guaranteed. Simmons and Mills improve every year and I don't see that changing. Why would you ever bet against this team (in the regular season at least), especially when they don't lose anything valuable.

I think the top 10 goes something like this...
Warriors

(big gap)

Cavs
Spurs
Rockets
Celtics
Washington
Toronto
OKC

The bottom 2 will probably be some combination of the rising Bucks, Nuggets, or Wolves IMO.

I think I'd put the Wolves above a handful of those teams like Toronto and OKC, maybe Washington for the regular season. But I'd probably put them a tier below because I have very little confidence in Thibs not to run that team into the ground during the regular season

 

[JSM1970]

You're overly programmed

My must watch West team is Denver

I love Jokic and Gary Harris and now adding Millsap

Waste of my time.

 

[superjohn]

Waste of my time.

He's a troll, nobody is this stupid. Best to zone him out.

 

[JSM1970]

No, I'm not programmed

The idea we have to lock Spurs as #2 team indefinitely as long as Popp is there is silly

They will be down big time this year

He's a troll, nobody is this stupid. Best to zone him out.

 

[80shusky]

He's a troll, nobody is this stupid. Best to zone him out.

I have to admire the fact that he is coolly stating his case without reacting to the fact that you guys are continuously insulting him.

 

[Walker11]

I think I'd put the Wolves above a handful of those teams like Toronto and OKC, maybe Washington for the regular season. But I'd probably put them a tier below because I have very little confidence in Thibs not to run that team into the ground during the regular season

You very well may be right. I am not giving Thibs the benefit of the doubt, even though history says I should. My worry would be that the sum isn't as good as the individual talent. The pieces don't fit cleanly with the iso-midrange style of Wiggins and Butler and lack of a perimeter threat. Their best outside shooter may be the player with the best post skills in the NBA. Not ideal. They are going to need to absolutely pummel people on the defensive end, but to this point, KAT and Wiggins have shown no defensive situational awareness.

You're overly programmed

My must watch West team is Denver

I love Jokic and Gary Harris and now adding Millsap

We agree on this. Jokic is going to break out in a huge way.

He's a troll, nobody is this stupid. Best to zone him out.

There is something likable about him, despite the trolling. It allows me to call someone an idiot on a weekly basis with no negative affect on my conscience.

No, I'm not programmed

The idea we have to lock Spurs as #2 team indefinitely as long as Popp is there is silly

They will be down big time this year

Just explain yourself, if you can. What rational reason is there to expect that the legs are going to fall off 30 year olds, one being a guy who doesn't rely on his athleticism at all?

 

[Walker11]

I have to admire the fact that he is coolly stating his case without reacting to the fact that you guys are continuously insulting him.

If being able to take what you dish is admirable, then sure, he is quite admirable. Step into the Cesspool for one minute and you will feel comfortable calling him any name under the sun.

 

[NielsisGood]

^ Jokic already broke out in a huge way and was well covered while doing so. Not sure how much better he can possibly play than the 22/12/6 with amazing shooting splits that he put up from mid-December onward.

 

[Walker11]

^ Jokic already broke out in a huge way and was well covered while doing so. Not sure how much better he can possibly play than the 22/12/6 with amazing shooting splits that he put up from mid-December onward.

I just meant in terms of popularity. He will soon be a big name that resonates with the casual NBA fan. You are right - he already did break out in a huge way but I don't think his recognition is on equal terms with his actual talent. I think a lot NBA junkies had Jokic figured out before Mike Malone. He was almost forced into making him the man.

 

[bballgrda]

I am not a big fan of Russel Westbrook, he's at best the 5th best player in the league imo. But, I think people are underrating OKC in this thread, their defenses should be very good.

Outside of getting Butler I am not a big fan of what Minnesota did this off-season. I'd be pretty shocked if they got to host a playoffs series this year.

 

[Walker11]

I am not a big fan of Russel Westbrook, he's at beat the 5tu beat by player in the league imo. But, I think people are underrating OKC in this thread, thir defenses should be very good.

Outside of getting Butler I am not a big fan of what Minnesota did this off-season. I'd be pretty shocked if they got to host a playoffs series this year.

In my previous rabble about how the Wolves players did not complement each other, I meant to discuss the Thunder as a counter point. George is a perfect star to complement Russ. He is more suited towards being the secondary playmaker and shoots over 40 % on catch and shoot 3's. Having a solid 3 and D wing would have made this team substantially better. George is a monster on both ends. And Patterson is probably the perfect 4 at the price point to play in their system. He will just sit on the corner 3 line (can't be left wide open) and allow the RW/SA pNr to become unstoppable, again. Adding two floor spacers to their 5 man unit is so crucial because now they can keep Roberson on the floor to swallow up opposing wings, while maintaining good floor balance. I think McDermott will be a solid bench shooter and Enes will feast on 2nd team defenses, while every big feasts on him. Grant has a ton of upside as a defender too. I am really talking myself into this roster - I just want to see them roster a backup PG with a pulse for the first time since Jackson departed.

Edit. I am a enormous fan or Russ, but I think he is somewhere around 7.

 

[superjohn]

In my previous rabble about how the Wolves players did not complement each other, I meant to discuss the Thunder as a counter point. George is a perfect star to complement Russ. He is more suited towards being the secondary playmaker and shoots over 40 % on catch and shoot 3's. Having a solid 3 and D wing would have made this team substantially better. George is a monster on both ends. And Patterson is probably the perfect 4 at the price point to play in their system. He will just sit on the corner 3 line (can't be left wide open) and allow the RW/SA pNr to become unstoppable, again. Adding two floor spacers to their 5 man unit is so crucial because now they can keep Roberson on the floor to swallow up opposing wings, while maintaining good floor balance. I think McDermott will be a solid bench shooter and Enes will feast on 2nd team defenses, while every big feasts on him. Grant has a ton of upside as a defender too. I am really talking myself into this roster - I just want to see them roster a backup PG with a pulse for the first time since Jackson departed.

OKC should be really good next year, I still see the Celtics as overachievers. It's a really nice roster of good to really good players but is anyone honestly taking any of them over Russ or Paul George? I love watching Jokic, Denver has a nice young team.

 

[NielsisGood]

I just meant in terms of popularity. He will soon be a big name that resonates with the casual NBA fan. You are right - he already did break out in a huge way but I don't think his recognition is on equal terms with his actual talent. I think a lot NBA junkies had Jokic figured out before Mike Malone. He was almost forced into making him the man.

Not trying to be contrarian but I do think his recognition is pretty on par with his talent. People love talking about the shiny new up and comer and Jokic got his fair share of online articles/mention/espn highlights. Not sure if he can get on that LeBron/Steph/KD/Russ/Harden level of media attention regardless though.

 

[Walker11]

Not trying to be contrarian but I do think his recognition is pretty on par with his talent. People love talking about the shiny new up and comer and Jokic got his fair share of online articles/mention/espn highlights. Not sure if he can get on that LeBron/Steph/KD/Russ/Harden level of media attention regardless though.

Yea fair enough. I am probably out of the loop on general NBA perception because I am one of those petty anti-ESPN types and consume basically zero of their media.

 

[champs99and04]

Yes. Coaching is a factor but most would have had them solidly second. This was the 1st seed last year and they did make the ECF. This move gives the C's breathing room ahead of Washington and Toronto right now. Toronto lost Patterson and Tucker, nice role forwards, and Washington has stayed the same. They are now solidly behind Boston, unless Derozan or Wall make the leap to superstardom (which wouldn't actually shock me - at one time, Kawhi and Russ and Harden were viewed on this tier), or a youngster like Powell or Oubre or Porter really develop.

The move makes sense. Hayward is a great fit. But if the C's end up as champion contenders, their best player is not on this roster.

The timeline should work out nicely with Horford. The 2 picks in next years class give them a nice shot at a premier big prospect like Ayton/Bamba/Porter.

Ainge must be accumulating wings as trade chips. I think this is the Morey approach. A legit superstar will enter the trade market and no team will be more prepared. A guy who moves the needle at the highest level, not a Butler or George type. The timing will be a matter of luck and randomness - wait too long and watch the shine wear off Brown and Tatum.

Agree on Bradley. 26 years old and continually improving. I would love to see him on the 76ers, actually.

Lowry missed 20+ games last season and Toronto still posted the best point differential in the East and came within two wins of first place.

I think we're seeing a little bit of an inflation of the Celtics based on them over-achieving last season. Their point differential was actually better two seasons ago, when they won 48 games and finished fifth in the East. My hunch is that Hayward will help offset some of the regression that was likely to come, which people will misinterpret as him either disrupting the chemistry or being overrated.

Horford has already regressed from his Atlanta heyday and is under contract at close to 30 million for the next three years. In sum, he's a solid center who places a hard ceiling on your team at that price - he's an earth-bound tweener who offers little vertical spacing and doesn't draw fouls, he's not quite good enough as a shooter to terrify defenses, and he lacks a component of athleticism that has been pronounced in the postseason for virtually a decade now.

Skilled, heady player who's more than useful to a team. They overpaid him, and now, as they scramble to clear cap space for Hayward, perhaps at the expense of a useful rotation payer or two, they find themselves in a bit of a quandary. Play for now, or play for later? I think the consensus is to play for later, but I'm not sure straddling the two extremes - which is what they are doing now - is quite as viable as people believe. If you're waiting on a bigger fish to hit the trade market, does Horford's contract become a roadblock? Does Isiah's contract - if they extend him - become a problem? Hell, Hayward's could be an issue. We don't know. If I'm Danny and I have all these assets, I want as much roster flexibility as possible. That means cheap, young players, no long-term contracts, and an eye towards a discernible end game rather than feeling out the breeze. Your take is a very good one and I'm with you especially on not waiting for the shine to wear off Tatum and Brown, because that's a matter of when not if. There are very few Kawhi's, and even he took until year five to make an all-star game.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

As of right now, the Cavaliers are counting on a ton of production from players that will be in their 30's next season, and Kevin Love will be 29. The injury risk increases dramatically for nba players at that point in their careers. The cavaliers will lose someone to injury.

 

[NielsisGood]

Lowry missed 20+ games last season and Toronto still posted the best point differential in the East and came within two wins of first place.

I think we're seeing a little bit of an inflation of the Celtics based on them over-achieving last season. Their point differential was actually better two seasons ago, when they won 48 games and finished fifth in the East. My hunch is that Hayward will help offset some of the regression that was likely to come, which people will misinterpret as him either disrupting the chemistry or being overrated.

Horford has already regressed from his Atlanta heyday and is under contract at close to 30 million for the next three years. In sum, he's a solid center who places a hard ceiling on your team at that price - he's an earth-bound tweener who offers little vertical spacing and doesn't draw fouls, he's not quite good enough as a shooter to terrify defenses, and he lacks a component of athleticism that has been pronounced in the postseason for virtually a decade now.

Skilled, heady player who's more than useful to a team. They overpaid him, and now, as they scramble to clear cap space for Hayward, perhaps at the expense of a useful rotation payer or two, they find themselves in a bit of a quandary. Play for now, or play for later? I think the consensus is to play for later, but I'm not sure straddling the two extremes - which is what they are doing now - is quite as viable as people believe. If you're waiting on a bigger fish to hit the trade market, does Horford's contract become a roadblock? Does Isiah's contract - if they extend him - become a problem? Hell, Hayward's could be an issue. We don't know. If I'm Danny and I have all these assets, I want as much roster flexibility as possible. That means cheap, young players, no long-term contracts, and an eye towards a discernible end game rather than feeling out the breeze. Your take is a very good one and I'm with you especially on not waiting for the shine to wear off Tatum and Brown, because that's a matter of when not if. There are very few Kawhi's, and even he took until year five to make an all-star game.

I've been saying this around here for a solid month or 2 now. Celts basically have a very poor man's version of Golden State. Isaiah is the poor man's Steph, Horford is the poor man's Draymond, Bradley is the poor man's Klay, and Hayward is the homeless man's Durant. Only differences are that the Celts have 2 young blue chippers (and 1 more on the way next year) and are giving max money to like the 25th and 45th best player as opposed to the 1A and 3rd-4th best.

 

[NielsisGood]

As of right now, the Cavaliers are counting on a ton of production from players that will be in their 30's next season, and Kevin Love will be 29. The injury risk increases dramatically for nba players at that point in their careers. The cavaliers will lose someone to injury.

It doesn't matter whatsoever if anyone other than their big 3 gets hurt. They'll be able to add more vet minimum and buyout guys whenever they want.

 

[JSM1970]

This is an interesting analogy and has some merits.

The C's will be dependent on the development of Rozier, Tatum, Zizic, Brown and their next #1s, which next year could be some combo of Porter Jr, Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, etc.

I've been saying this around here for a solid month or 2 now. Celts basically have a very poor man's version of Golden State. Isaiah is the poor man's Steph, Horford is the poor man's Draymond, Bradley is the poor man's Klay, and Hayward is the homeless man's Durant. Only differences are that the Celts have 2 young blue chippers (and 1 more on the way next year) and are giving max money to like the 25th and 45th best player as opposed to the 1A and 3rd-4th best.