First off, I'm disappointed that Kasongo didn't choose us over Oregon, but unlike most here, I'm not panicking and still assess our program as I have been the last few months. I've been saying all along that our conference is killing us and the staff has to overcome that with every recruit. They were able to do so with 5* Hamilton and with the less heralded Lubin, just a few days ago. KO can no longer tell recruits that they'll be playing one elite conference program after another, nor can he tell them they'll get to play multiple games at MSG in NYC.
We'll probably never know for sure why we lost Ray to the Ducks, but I have my suspicions. I'll get to those in a moment.
Every recruiting battle has its unique twists and turns. I think the conference situation was a major impact with Abu. The Old Big East UConn would have landed him.
I think the OBE UConn might have been enough to sway Larrier (Bronx NY) our way, but his relationship with Smart and VCU's recent success was more than enough to trump the AAC UConn. KO can no longer tell northeast recruits that they'll get to play whole slew of games close to home (No PC, SJU, SHU, Nova or SU) and no MSG. Hum...are we the only AAC team in the northeast?
Getting back to what I suspect were the driving forces behind Kasongo's decision I think they are as follows:
1. I have a strong feeling those advising him were pro-Oregon and they wore him down. The following three gave them fodder for their pro-O campaign.
2. Those influences probably pointed to a crowded front court (Brimah, Facey, Nolan) that go even more crowded with the verbal from a similar player in Lubin and possibly the addition of the 3/4 combo Robinson who has been high on UConn. Even though we might not land him, I'm sure the pro-Oregon influences pointed him out even though Robinson is likely to play more 3 than 4, not to mention that there's no guarantee we'll land him in the first place.
3. Oregon's coach told him had a good shot at starting as a freshman there, something that I doubt that KO would have told him. PT is earned at UConn and I wonder if landing Lubin gave the Oregon influences extra fuel for the fire. I can imagine someone telling him, "You are our top priority for the 4. UConn just picked up a similar player in Lubin. If you go there, you'll be just another body while at Oregon, you're our guy." Remember there were rumors that Ray felt pressure. I wonder if KO told him that Lubin was coming in for a visit the following weekend, not to mention other bigs (Swift & Colson) after that and that he'd take whoever said yes first. Once Lubin accepted, KO probably told him that they would still take both, providing more negative fodder for the other side.
4. AAC issue may have been a factor in that if we were the OBE-UConn, an elite program in an elite conference, might have been able to overcome 1, 2 & 3. Like it or not, the 3 biggest selling points that won us our share of recruiting battles are no longer valid. Not only are we no longer part of what was considered the best high major hoops conference, we're not even in a major conference. We no longer have the head coach that was credited for leading us to 3 NCs and putting a whole slew of players in the NBA. As much as we think we're elite and have an elite coach in KO, there is a mountain of negative recruiting casting a perception that UConn is no longer an elite program. Never mind a clean slate for UConn and KO, there's a growing perception that UConn's stock is going down, evident by all the recruiting battles we seem to be losing. Granted we can point to Purvis and Hamilton, that our stock is still high, but other than landing the unheralded Lubin (who I think is going to be very good player) the staff has been swinging and missing for the last few months.
That fact that we were leading till the very end with Kasongo, tells me that 1,2 & 3 were likely the bigger issues, and if we had not landed Lubin, maybe he would have chosen us over the Ducks. It's too bad. I had hopes that we could put one scary big in there after another and in some cases play both at the same time. I had visions of being like that MD team with Baxter and Wilcox that abused us back-in-the-day. I think we were all greedy. We didn't want just one Troutman, but two, and why not?!?!
I still don't think it's time to panic. There are some real obstacles to overcome and just as they were able to overcome them with Purvis, Hamilton and Lubin, they'll be able to do the same with 2 or 3 more recruits. I would not be shocked if we end up landing our PG in Cassell at the end of this week, land Swift or Colson for that 2nd Big in this class and maybe in the end, KO will land Robinson who both he and his family seem to really like KO. As much as we all would have loved to see both Lubin and Kasongo eat a ton of minutes in our 2014 frontcourt and beyond, all it means is that Lubin and the returning bigs will just get more minutes and we'll be just fine.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think UConn is going to have a big time 2013-14 season that will take this team to at least the S-16 if not E-8 and beyond. The 2015 recruits will take notice and KO will pull in some big timers making us all forget about all this crap. Keep in mind that the Squid and Pasner have been able to recruit their share of highly ranked recruits at Memphis, a program that has not come close to the success that UConn has had, there is no reason why KO can't begin to win more of these recruiting battles even though the AAC issue will have to be something to overcome by continued success and the strong Husky brand.