OT: 2017-2018 NBA Season Thread

[Rocktheworld]

GOAT.

When he decides to be the best point guard one season just to do it...

Then when he is older and puts himself in the post more and decides to be the best PF one season just to do it...

When his statistical production, given his pace, is finished...

If he wins a championship with a third team...

The conversation for GOAT becomes much more interesting

 

[champs99and04]

Would Draymond be Draymond if he was drafted by the Suns? Doubtful. I think Kerr could have plugged another malleable 4 in for Green and would barely skip a beat on offense. I can't deny that his defense would be a glaring loss. And his competitive drive and intensity would definitely be missed. I might be talking myself out of my opinion. Regardless, Bell was so obviously going to become a plus role player. And now he is supercharged because of that drop. If he keeps developing and Lacob refuses to spend 400 million on salaries, the Warriors may have the ideal back up plan.

I don't know if it's nature or nurture but I was thinking of this topic Thursday night watching the Warriors Spurs. Probably a little of both. I was more prompted by the Spurs as they trotted out lineups full of undrafted players, second rounders and very late 1st rounders. The 14th pick in the draft is a crapshoot for most teams. The Spurs hit on seemingly every transaction, and the Warriors to a slightly lesser extent. They have this new 2guard from overseas/Illinois who looked very good last week. Any team in the league could have had him. It's so hard to find plus 2 way wings and now fresh off the scrap heap, it appears he is going to be the new Jon Simmons. Simmons actually is very good and is evidence of the development/scouting superiority. I think both the Warriors and Spurs have a great eye for talent but I would guess the development abilities of the staff and the system/players are more important. Regardless, it's gotta be awesome to be a guy like Pat McCaw and get drafted by the Warriors.

I have the same sort of questions about what is currently going on in Boston, though it could be me simply trying to justify my (possibly wrong) opinion on their off-season. How much of this is Stevens and how much of it is Ainge? I think Ainge is a sharp guy and obviously deserves a ton of credit for hiring Stevens, pulling off the Brooklyn heist, etc. But it almost felt like he was in such a good spot that, because of Stevens, no matter what he did with all of those assets, it was going to work out. I don't know if guys like Tatum and Irving look as good as they do because of who they are as players or because the system vaults them to another level. Obviously they are talented in a way that Crowder, Bradley, etc. were not, but what happens if you swap Irving and Tatum for Bledsoe and T.J. Warren? My hunch is that Stevens still has them looking like a machine.

 

[Matrim55]

Lebron dropped 57 points last night to become the youngest to get to 29,000 (passing Kobe) joins MJ to have 800 consecutive double digit games.

I know people like to make comparisons but if you were picking teams and someone took Mike first, no one would cry having to 'settle' for Lebron.

He still talks about still getting better at 33. Enjoy him while you can, he's unique and I will say an outstanding role model. I'm posting this because of his milestone last night:

Best basketball player I've ever seen. Sorry, Mike.

 

[tzznandrew]

A thing to remember in these comparisons: Jordan played in a much slower-paced league than LeBron has (for all but his first few seasons).

Jordan is the best, most clutch player I've ever seen. LeBron is a fantastic player who deserves to be in the GOAT conversation. In stats like PER and WS/48, Jordan is ahead of James. In Box Plus/Minus and VORP it's James ahead of MJ.

But James hasn't entered the decline phase yet, and so those numbers will be depressed.

The GOAT conversation is Jordan-KAJ-LeBron. KAJ and LeBron win big in terms of being people, though.

 

[Matrim55]

A thing to remember in these comparisons: Jordan played in a much slower-paced league than LeBron has (for all but his first few seasons).

That's just completely untrue. Last year was the first during LeBron's career during which the league pace was over 96 possessions per 48 minutes; Jordan never saw a league pace below 96 per 48 until after his first retirement.

For five of Jordan's first six years, the league pace was over 100. This year, wild as it is, it's just 99 per 48.

LeBron never played in a league with a pace over 92 until 2013/14, so 12 of his 15 years are 92 or under. Only six of Jordan's 15 seasons – including his 94/95 comeback year, and the Wizards years – were 92 or less. His entire prime, before the first retirement, came in a league that played at a faster pace than any LeBron's ever played in until this year.

NBA League Averages | Basketball-Reference.com

 

[tzznandrew]

That's just completely untrue. Last year was the first during LeBron's career during which the league pace was over 96 possessions per 48 minutes; Jordan never saw a league pace below 96 per 48 until after his first retirement.

For five of Jordan's first six years, the league pace was over 100. This year, wild as it is, it's just 99 per 48.

LeBron never played in a league with a pace over 92 until 2013/14, so 12 of his 15 years are 92 or under. Only six of Jordan's 15 seasons – including his 94/95 comeback year, and the Wizards years – were 92 or less. His entire prime, before the first retirement, came in a league that played at a faster pace than any LeBron's ever played in until this year.

NBA League Averages | Basketball-Reference.com

Okay. I was wrong. I was going from memory.

It doesn't change my essential point, since Jordan's pace specific metrics are still amazing. But, yeah, whoops.

 

[Matrim55]

It doesn't change my essential point, since Jordan's pace specific metrics are still amazing.

Agree 100%. Jordan's still regarded as the GOAT and while I disagree with that, it's not like people who feel that way are so out of line. He was amazing.

That said, LeBron's better. Put him in a man-to-man league with a 99 pace and he'd have gone for like 35/12/12 on 60/40/80 splits and just shat all over anything Jordan ever did.

PS – Jordan never won a single playoff series without Pippen.

 

[tzznandrew]

Agree 100%. Jordan's still regarded as the GOAT and while I disagree with that, it's not like people who feel that way are so out of line. He was amazing.

That said, LeBron's better. Put him in a man-to-man league with a 99 pace and he'd have gone for like 35/12/12 on 60/40/80 splits and just shat all over anything Jordan ever did.

PS – Jordan never won a single playoff series without Pippen.

The stats I quoted were pace adjusted (PER, WS/48, VORP, +/-).

As for the playoffs thing... I mean, sure...Jordan took a team from the third pick to the 7th seed in his first year. Did LeBron make the playoffs his first year? (No.) His second year? (No.) More teams made it, as a percentage in Jordan's year, so his team was bad and in the playoffs against a 59 team in year 1, and an all-time great Celtics team in year 2 (Jordan broke his leg that season and didn't play much...might have gotten a better matchup if he were healthy all year, right?). Year 3? Celtics again. But again, the East was actually good then, so he's getting tough matchups. I find the fact that it took MJ three years to win a playoff series sort of silly (I'm sure you do to).

You're also discounting handchecks. That's a major trade off: LeBron now gets crazy freedom of movement. A man-to-man only league helps LeBron in some ways, but it hurts him in others. The physical play Jordan had to endure in the 80s and 90s is of a different animal.

 

[Matrim55]

Did LeBron make the playoffs his first year? (No.) His second year? (No.)

You're discounting that one came via high school, and the other after three years of college.

You're also discounting handchecks.

So would LeBron. Imagine thinking handchecks would bother him for a single possession.

That's a major trade off: LeBron now gets crazy freedom of movement. A man-to-man only league helps LeBron in some ways, but it hurts him in others. The physical play Jordan had to endure in the 80s and 90s is of a different animal.

Totally, totally disagree with this. Hard fouls were definitely harder back then, but there was less ambient physicality on a typical possession in the 80s than there is today, by orders of magnitude.

There are lots of full games of Jordan's online if you know where to look, and you can see as much.

 

[Walker11]

I have the same sort of questions about what is currently going on in Boston, though it could be me simply trying to justify my (possibly wrong) opinion on their off-season. How much of this is Stevens and how much of it is Ainge? I think Ainge is a sharp guy and obviously deserves a ton of credit for hiring Stevens, pulling off the Brooklyn heist, etc. But it almost felt like he was in such a good spot that, because of Stevens, no matter what he did with all of those assets, it was going to work out. I don't know if guys like Tatum and Irving look as good as they do because of who they are as players or because the system vaults them to another level. Obviously they are talented in a way that Crowder, Bradley, etc. were not, but what happens if you swap Irving and Tatum for Bledsoe and T.J. Warren? My hunch is that Stevens still has them looking like a machine.

I think Stevens is better as a coach than Ainge is as a GM but I give them equal credit for putting the Celtics in this spot. As to why they are 7-2 without Hayward? Its gotta be Stevens. I argued that the Irving trade was a risk worth taking because of his untapped potential. The 7-2 record seems to point towards me being correct. But Irving's advanced statistics argue the opposite. So few coaches actually move the needle drastically and Stevens is one of the few.

 

[MSGSeven]

Best basketball player I've ever seen. Sorry, Mike.

He's not even top 3 might not even be top 5. You must be young and not have seen Magic and Bird. Reggie Miller said he'd take Bird over Lebron.

Forget about athleticism and size, Jordan was a far better shooter than Lebron especially when it was time to win the game.

 

[bballgrda]

Reggie Miller LOL

 

[tzznandrew]

You're discounting that one came via high school, and the other after three years of college.


So would LeBron. Imagine thinking handchecks would bother him for a single possession.


Totally, totally disagree with this. Hard fouls were definitely harder back then, but there was less ambient physicality on a typical possession in the 80s than there is today, by orders of magnitude.

There are lots of full games of Jordan's online if you know where to look, and you can see as much.

Sorry, I watched him, and 80s and 90s basketball.



This would be an immediate ejection and a month suspension. "Ambient physicality" is a term that really doesn't mean much. I get what you're going for, but I just don't agree.



To your points: I'm not discounting anything. I get the differences in the game. You seem to think they'd all be in favor of LeBron; I think they'd be roughly even. You couldn't zone or double Jordan; you couldn't be nearly as physical with LeBron.

Your position about getting out of the playoffs is also absurd because it neglects that the 1980s East was awesome and the 2000s East was garbage. How many Finals would LeBron have gotten to out of the West? You may ask the same about Jordan, in that the 1990s East wasn't the 1980s, but he also never lost an NBA Finals, and went to 6 straight NBA Finals when he played a full season, while giving up two years of his prime.

LeBron's stats are great. Pace-adjusted they are debatably on Jordan's level.

[Edit] Anyway, we disagree. This probably isn't the space for such a debate though.

 

[Mr. French]

Go watch Jordan against the 80s Celtics or take a look at his numbers if you're lazy ...

I'm comfortable saying Lebron is the greatest in certain ways, and he is top 3, maybe 2nd already.

Right this second though, he isn't above Jordan for career accomplishments, impact or "who would you take" comparisons, IMO.

Lebron does and has done things that Jordan couldn't do, but if I get Jordan and you get Lebron, I think my team will win.

 

[MSGSeven]

Reggie Miller LOL

He says the same thing about you

 

[superjohn]

Agree 100%. Jordan's still regarded as the GOAT and while I disagree with that, it's not like people who feel that way are so out of line. He was amazing.

That said, LeBron's better. Put him in a man-to-man league with a 99 pace and he'd have gone for like 35/12/12 on 60/40/80 splits and just shat all over anything Jordan ever did.

PS – Jordan never won a single playoff series without Pippen.

lol. Jordan would have averaged 45 today if he wanted. Pippen without Jordan probably would have resembled Nick Batum.

 

[the Q]

I think Stevens is better as a coach than Ainge is as a GM but I give them equal credit for putting the Celtics in this spot. As to why they are 7-2 without Hayward? Its gotta be Stevens. I argued that the Irving trade was a risk worth taking because of his untapped potential. The 7-2 record seems to point towards me being correct. But Irving's advanced statistics argue the opposite. So few coaches actually move the needle drastically and Stevens is one of the few.

There isn’t another coach in the league who would have this team 7-2. Not. One.

 

[UConnSwag11]

I think the rules also have a lot to do with today’s players and their production. Also I would compare James with magic instead of Jordan

 

[nomar]

not true.

last year they had the exact same VORP. And they were comparable in 2015-2016, although both were hit pretty hard by injuries that year.

Same contract length.

Bledsoe is a bit cheaper.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[the Q]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Facts. Counselor.

 

[Matrim55]

This would be an immediate ejection and a month suspension. "Ambient physicality" is a term that really doesn't mean much. I get what you're going for, but I just don't agree.

I don't disagree with the first part – as I said, hard fouls tended to be harder back then. As for the second part, look at the highlights from MJ's 63-point game:



So many clean catches off screens, so many uncontested looks, and just about any time he went into the lane it was whistled. There was low ambient, per-possession physicality in the league until the mid-90s, save for 1v1 post battles.

LeBron got hit more last night in a random November game than Jordan did in that playoff game 30 years ago:

To your points: I'm not discounting anything. I get the differences in the game. You seem to think they'd all be in favor of LeBron; I think they'd be roughly even. You couldn't zone or double Jordan; you couldn't be nearly as physical with LeBron.

You couldn't hammer him the way the Pistons hammered him. You could, for sure, take away at least part of his mid-range genius with the type of defenses we see today.

Jordan would still be great, mind you. He'd get to the line a ton and would be super-efficient. But the new defensive rules are designed to limit the value of the type of mid-range stuff that he was so great at.

Your position about getting out of the playoffs is also absurd because it neglects that the 1980s East was awesome and the 2000s East was garbage.

So we just dismiss the Wizards years? And your point about "full season" is garbage as well. Everything about Jordan comes with these unspoken caveats that people are just supposed to accept because of the personality cult built around the guy.

Bottom line: The Bulls without MJ were a 55-win team.

[Edit] Anyway, we disagree. This probably isn't the space for such a debate though.

For sure. You're one of the best to have a discussion with on this forum, and I enjoy this back-and-forth even if it seems we're destined to disagree.

And for the dumdum Skip Bayless-wannabes who blow off LeBron's clutchness, here you go:

LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan Is a Real Conversation Now, So Let’s Have It

relevant block:

He’s actually hit more go-ahead shots in the final 10 seconds of playoff games on fewer attempts than Jordan. FiveThirtyEight found that James has been the most clutch postseason shooter in its data set, although that dates back to only 2000.

James has been an absolute menace in Game 7s, winning all four he’s played since 2008: He had 37 to win the 2013 Finals and a 27-point triple-double last year to complete Cleveland’s epic comeback against the Warriors. (A reminder: He became the first player to lead the NBA Finals in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals while playing on the first team to rally back from a 3–1 deficit in the NBA Finals, and he did it against the first team ever to win 73 games in a season.) Jordan never played in a Game 7 in the Finals — because he was so clutch that he didn’t even need to be clutch, I guess — but his 2–1 record in non-Finals Game 7s is identical in percentage to LeBron’s 4–2 record.

Clutch sample sizes are extremely inconclusive, but in big moments, LeBron tends to do really well. As well as Jordan? Tough to say. I think we should just agree: Both are extremely good at basketball.

EDIT: I really should include the end of that column, which is great:

After all, we need to save our energy. Every second we spend debating LeBron vs. Jordan is a second we should be focusing on humiliating the people who think Kobe Bryant belongs in this conversation.

 

[nomar]

Facts. Counselor.

Wow, VORP.

Here is a fact: every coach and executive in the NBA would disagree with you. Eric Bledoe's mom and you are the other two people on earth that think Bledsoe is close to Kyrie.

 

[the Q]

Wow, VORP.

Here is a fact: every coach and executive in the NBA would disagree with you. Eric Bledoe's mom and you are the other two people on earth that think Bledsoe is close to Kyrie.

Objection. Brother counsel is testifying with zero evidence to support his assertion.

 

[tzznandrew]

I don't disagree with the first part – as I said, hard fouls tended to be harder back then. As for the second part, look at the highlights from MJ's 63-point game:



So many clean catches off screens, so many uncontested looks, and just about any time he went into the lane it was whistled. There was low ambient, per-possession physicality in the league until the mid-90s, save for 1v1 post battles.

LeBron got hit more last night in a random November game than Jordan did in that playoff game 30 years ago:




You couldn't hammer him the way the Pistons hammered him. You could, for sure, take away at least part of his mid-range genius with the type of defenses we see today.

Jordan would still be great, mind you. He'd get to the line a ton and would be super-efficient. But the new defensive rules are designed to limit the value of the type of mid-range stuff that he was so great at.


So we just dismiss the Wizards years? And your point about "full season" is garbage as well. Everything about Jordan comes with these unspoken caveats that people are just supposed to accept because of the personality cult built around the guy.

Bottom line: The Bulls without MJ were a 55-win team.


For sure. You're one of the best to have a discussion with on this forum, and I enjoy this back-and-forth even if it seems we're destined to disagree.

And for the dumdum Skip Bayless-wannabes who blow off LeBron's clutchness, here you go:

LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan Is a Real Conversation Now, So Let’s Have It

relevant block:

He’s actually hit more go-ahead shots in the final 10 seconds of playoff games on fewer attempts than Jordan. FiveThirtyEight found that James has been the most clutch postseason shooter in its data set, although that dates back to only 2000.

James has been an absolute menace in Game 7s, winning all four he’s played since 2008: He had 37 to win the 2013 Finals and a 27-point triple-double last year to complete Cleveland’s epic comeback against the Warriors. (A reminder: He became the first player to lead the NBA Finals in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals while playing on the first team to rally back from a 3–1 deficit in the NBA Finals, and he did it against the first team ever to win 73 games in a season.) Jordan never played in a Game 7 in the Finals — because he was so clutch that he didn’t even need to be clutch, I guess — but his 2–1 record in non-Finals Game 7s is identical in percentage to LeBron’s 4–2 record.

Clutch sample sizes are extremely inconclusive, but in big moments, LeBron tends to do really well. As well as Jordan? Tough to say. I think we should just agree: Both are extremely good at basketball.

EDIT: I really should include the end of that column, which is great:

After all, we need to save our energy. Every second we spend debating LeBron vs. Jordan is a second we should be focusing on humiliating the people who think Kobe Bryant belongs in this conversation.

The last part is 1000%. Let's save this conversation though for another thread where it would be more relevant.

 

[Walker11]

He says the same thing about you

Great player and all but Reggie is consistently the least informed person calling big games.

There isn’t another coach in the league who would have this team 7-2. Not. One.

Maybe, but I am not ready to put him up with Pop. Pop has been maximizing his talent for 20 years now and seems to exceed expectations every single year. Stevens is doing the same in the regular season but the track record is 1/10th as long.

That said, hot take alert, Stevens might be a considerably better coach than Kerr. We have no way to know how great Kerr is. I know he improved on Jackson (a terrible coach) and maximized Green but he has only coached 3 of the most talented teams ever, and we saw what Walton and Brown have done in his absences.