One and Done Coming to an End?

[UConnJim]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

 

[Dogdeacon]

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

 

[the Q]

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

Don't forget chandler has totally retooled his game from when he came out.

Bynum was a stud before his freak bowling injury ended his career.

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

Penalizing Bynum for suffering a career ending knee injury is kinda unfair. That bowling injury could've happened to anyone with any level of education.

 

[UConnJim]

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

I think you are over rating how NBA draft picks perform by draft position.

The #19th NBA draft pick is usually not a standout player. Here is the list of #19 picks from 1998 to 2008: Pat Garrity (10 years, 7.3 ppg), Quincy Lewis (4 years, 2.6 ppg), Jamaal Magliore (12 years, 7.2 ppg), Zach Randolph (17 years, 16.7 ppg), Ryan Humphrey (3 years, 2.3 ppg), Sasha Pavlovic (10 years, 4.9 ppg), Dorell Wright (11 years, 8.4 ppg) , Hakim Warrick (8 years, 9.4 ppg) Quincy Douby (3 years, 10.7 ppg), Javaris Crittenton (2 years, 5.3 ppg), and JJ Hickson (8 years, 9.5 ppg). Dorell Wright performed in-line with other #19 picks. By saying Dorell Wright performed below expectations, you are saying all of the #19 picks listed, except Randolph, performed below expectations.

Look at the #18 picks: Mirsad Turkcan (1 year, 1.9 ppg), James Posey (12 years, 8.6 ppg), Quentin Richardson (13 years, 10.3 ppg), Jason Collins (13 years, 3.6 ppg), Curtis Borchardt (2 years, 3.1 ppg), David West (15 years, 14.0 ppg), JR Smith (14 years, 12.8 ppg), Gerald Green (10 years, 9.6 ppg), Oleksiy Pecherov (3 years, 3.9 ppg), Marco Belinelli (11 years, 9.7 ppg), JaVale McGee (1o years, 7.7 ppg). Green has performed in line with the other 18th picks.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I think you are over rating how NBA draft picks perform by draft position.

The #19th NBA draft pick is usually not a standout player. Here is the list of #19 picks from 1998 to 2008: Pat Garrity (10 years, 7.3 ppg), Quincy Lewis (4 years, 2.6 ppg), Jamaal Magliore (12 years, 7.2 ppg), Zach Randolph (17 years, 16.7 ppg), Ryan Humphrey (3 years, 2.3 ppg), Sasha Pavlovic (10 years, 4.9 ppg), Dorell Wright (11 years, 8.4 ppg) , Hakim Warrick (8 years, 9.4 ppg) Quincy Douby (3 years, 10.7 ppg), Javaris Crittenton (2 years, 5.3 ppg), and JJ Hickson (8 years, 9.5 ppg). Dorell Wright performed in-line with other #19 picks. By saying Dorell Wright performed below expectations, you are saying all of the #19 picks listed, except Randolph, performed below expectations.

Look at the #18 picks: Mirsad Turkcan (1 year, 1.9 ppg), James Posey (12 years, 8.6 ppg), Quentin Richardson (13 years, 10.3 ppg), Jason Collins (13 years, 3.6 ppg), Curtis Borchardt (2 years, 3.1 ppg), David West (15 years, 14.0 ppg), JR Smith (14 years, 12.8 ppg), Gerald Green (10 years, 9.6 ppg), Oleksiy Pecherov (3 years, 3.9 ppg), Marco Belinelli (11 years, 9.7 ppg), JaVale McGee (1o years, 7.7 ppg). Green has performed in line with the other 18th picks.

#19 - You stopped arbitrarily in 2008 b/c then next 3 years were Jeff Teague, Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris all starters and infinitely better than Mr Wright. And again Wright sucked for the team that drafted him - that matters most.
#18 - I said Green returned to form, but again his first few years were lousy and ended up with him playing 2 years in Russia! Fake news

 

[intlzncster]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)

This only makes sense if you do it for every draftee, for context. What percentage of players 'bust' relative to their draft position every year? It might look exactly like this distribution for all we know.