One and Done Coming to an End?

[jazyj]

Why? In baseball the players' union did. For the pro players, the best arrangement is one that keeps as many top players in college as possible, thereby limiting the competition for pro dollars.

That argument makes no sense as there is little room for negotiation in rookie contracts. That money is going to 60 people every year regardless of whether they are all freshman or seniors. No new money for vets is created by raising the age limit, and if anything why would the NBA help out the NCAA instead of themselves. I think its funny how people here think that by raising the age limit, the NCAA will get a boost. That won’t happen, kids that want to leave will still leave whether that be overseas or the G-league, not much will change. The NBA has shown signs that it wants to make the G-league into a real minor league why would top kids go to college when they can make 6 figures for a year or 2 and the go to the NBA.

 

[intlzncster]

That argument makes no sense as there is little room for negotiation in rookie contracts. That money is going to 60 people every year regardless of whether they are all freshman or seniors. No new money for vets is created by raising the age limit, and if anything why would the NBA help out the NCAA instead of themselves. I think its funny how people here think that by raising the age limit, the NCAA will get a boost. That won’t happen, kids that want to leave will still leave whether that be overseas or the G-league, not much will change. The NBA has shown signs that it wants to make the G-league into a real minor league why would top kids go to college when they can make 6 figures for a year or 2 and the go to the NBA.

Kids don't seem to want to go to Europe. The option's been therefore ever, and it's pretty much only guys who fall through the cracks for whatever reason.

Until the G-League starts paying guys (35k ain't gonna cut it), that argument is moot.

It's gonna be up to the League to structure this right.

 

[jazyj]

Kids don't seem to want to go to Europe. The option's been therefore ever, and it's pretty much only guys who fall through the cracks for whatever reason.

Until the G-League starts paying guys (35k ain't gonna cut it), that argument is moot.

It's gonna be up to the League to structure this right.

Kids don’t got to Europe because as it stands right now they only have to wait a year to get paid. If you make it 3 years until they get paid I am willing to bet my life savings of $16.32 that more top kids will go to Europe

 

[David 76]

Make the scholarship count for all four years, regardless of how long the players stays. Problem solved.

Calipari could end up with no players, only vacated scholarship slots.
On second thought, I like it.

 

[Towney007]

The problem with that it is it normally takes years to develop competitive young baseball players. NBA talent is often ready far quicker.

Yes and no.

Possibly 3-4 players a year are *really* ready for the NBA immediately out of high school. That might even be pushing it. 10-20 are ready after a year of college. Most need at least 2 years of college, if not more plus D-League time and D-League usually means they probably won't stick in the NBA for a significant amount of time. While your top-tier talent breezes through, your average NBA talent is a 3-5 year development path through college/Europe/D-League.

Your average superstar talent in baseball is 1-2 years in the minors. 3-6 is your average development time. It's different, a narrower sample of talent and roster spots to be sure - but it's not *that* different.

 

[BlueMAB]

Yes, they do. The draft is a collectively bargained issue that the players would abolish if they were smart. Even Baseball should. Be like the old days (that I wasn’t alive for) When real scouting talent and developing relationships with players mattered. Now you hand off elite talent to incompetent and undeserving tanktastic franchises.

Why does the NCAA need to negotiate with the NBA player's association? The NBPA is, by definition, a collection of individuals who have nothing to do with the NCAA because they are ineligible.

It's got nothing to do with "smart". The draft isn't going anywhere because the owners won't allow it to. Just because something is collectively bargained, doesn't mean its on the table. Otherwise you could just make arguments like "the owners should reduce the salary cap to $10mm per season per contract.... if they were smart" or "the players should have the ability to veto any trade at any time in any contract.... if they were smart". or "the players should make the league minimum $5M/year..... if they were smart"

 

[the Q]

Why does the NCAA need to negotiate with the NBA player's association? The NBPA is, by definition, a collection of individuals who have nothing to do with the NCAA because they are ineligible.

It's got nothing to do with "smart". The draft isn't going anywhere because the owners won't allow it to. Just because something is collectively bargained, doesn't mean its on the table. Otherwise you could just make arguments like "the owners should reduce the salary cap to $10mm per season per contract.... if they were smart" or "the players should have the ability to veto any trade at any time in any contract.... if they were smart". or "the players should make the league minimum $5M/year..... if they were smart"

I thought you meant the NBA didn’t have to bargain with the nbpa.

The draft won’t go away because 1) the players were dumb enough to give it, and the genie is out of the bottle, and 2) fans are dumb enough to believe the owners when they claim it’s for “competitive balance.”

 

[BlueMAB]

I thought you meant the NBA didn’t have to bargain with the nbpa.

The draft won’t go away because 1) the players were dumb enough to give it, and the genie is out of the bottle, and 2) fans are dumb enough to believe the owners when they claim it’s for “competitive balance.”

No my point was that the NBPA has zero leverage to force the NCAA to agree to anything. But the NBA can try to discuss options with the NCAA to get them to institute rules that will be mutually beneficial, that the NBPA can't do anything about.

The draft is its own discussion. Eliminating doesn't do anything to help competitive balance either. Players are already working together to establish "super teams" as free agents. If the draft was removed from the equation, then teams like Milwaukee wouldn't have the talent they do now. And while the Sixers tanked for years, and were hit hard by the injury bug in the "process", they have built an exciting young team that should challenge for the Eastern conference title within a few years (assuming they keep their nucleus together).

I think the solution should be similar to baseball. Player can/should be drafted out of HS. He can consult with the team as to whether they want him now, or in college (instead of "stashing them overseas for a few years"). If he chooses college, they retain his rights for 3 years. He can come out at any time within those three seasons.

How much better would it have been for UConn and/or Hamilton and Daniels had they been able to return to college after the draft? Hamilton might not have, but I feel Daniels probably would have been better served with another season at UConn instead of going to Australia (though admittedly injuries have been his main issue).

In order to encourage taking school seriously, they could add a player option. If the player graduates within 4 years, he has the option of a guaranteed contract with the team that signed him (D league or better), or signing with any team as a free agent. If the team doesn't want to lose the player they will encourage him to leave school early and sign a contract before that option is exercised. If the player doesn't want to sign with that team, he will have honored the academic side of his contract with the university, and is rewarded with the potential for additional options.

This is all off the top of my head, and it may not be feasible. There also might be unintended consequences that I haven't thought of, it's just an idea for the sake of discussion.

 

[the Q]

No my point was that the NBPA has zero leverage to force the NCAA to agree to anything. But the NBA can try to discuss options with the NCAA to get them to institute rules that will be mutually beneficial, that the NBPA can't do anything about.

The draft is its own discussion. Eliminating doesn't do anything to help competitive balance either. Players are already working together to establish "super teams" as free agents. If the draft was removed from the equation, then teams like Milwaukee wouldn't have the talent they do now. And while the Sixers tanked for years, and were hit hard by the injury bug in the "process", they have built an exciting young team that should challenge for the Eastern conference title within a few years (assuming they keep their nucleus together).

I think the solution should be similar to baseball. Player can/should be drafted out of HS. He can consult with the team as to whether they want him now, or in college (instead of "stashing them overseas for a few years"). If he chooses college, they retain his rights for 3 years. He can come out at any time within those three seasons.

How much better would it have been for UConn and/or Hamilton and Daniels had they been able to return to college after the draft? Hamilton might not have, but I feel Daniels probably would have been better served with another season at UConn instead of going to Australia (though admittedly injuries have been his main issue).

In order to encourage taking school seriously, they could add a player option. If the player graduates within 4 years, he has the option of a guaranteed contract with the team that signed him (D league or better), or signing with any team as a free agent. If the team doesn't want to lose the player they will encourage him to leave school early and sign a contract before that option is exercised. If the player doesn't want to sign with that team, he will have honored the academic side of his contract with the university, and is rewarded with the potential for additional options.

This is all off the top of my head, and it may not be feasible. There also might be unintended consequences that I haven't thought of, it's just an idea for the sake of discussion.

The NBA and NCAA can’t do anything do the draft without the union. It is well established that the draft is an area subject to collective bargaining. Otherwise trying to block these kids would’ve triggered an anti trust suit years ago.

 

[BlueMAB]

The NBA and NCAA can’t do anything do the draft without the union. It is well established that the draft is an area subject to collective bargaining. Otherwise trying to block these kids would’ve triggered an anti trust suit years ago.

I know the NCAA can't, but the NBA did block the kids with the one and done rule, so it's not like they can't get anything done on the draft. I can see players agreeing to having their rights drafted without foregoing a college career. It takes the pressure off the decision of when to go pro. It allows the NCAA to keep more talent. And fans win because these guys aren't over in China or Australia or Europe, they are allowed to develop here. Add the guaranteed contract (which 2nd rounders don't get now) and the player option that gives them a path to immediate free agency with a college degree, and I can see reasons why the NBPA would agree to the suggested changes.

They can do something with the draft, they did when they instituted the one and done rule. They just need to find the right terms that will satisfy the NBA and NBPA, and hopefully as a byproduct, improve the game in the NCAA.

Also, I didn't say anything about "blocking" the kids. Quite the opposite, I'm saying they should be drafted without losing eligibility. If they haven't signed a contract, then they haven't ceased being an amateur, some NBA team simply has their rights when they do go pro.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Yes and no.

Possibly 3-4 players a year are *really* ready for the NBA immediately out of high school. That might even be pushing it. 10-20 are ready after a year of college. Most need at least 2 years of college, if not more plus D-League time and D-League usually means they probably won't stick in the NBA for a significant amount of time. While your top-tier talent breezes through, your average NBA talent is a 3-5 year development path through college/Europe/D-League.

Your average superstar talent in baseball is 1-2 years in the minors. 3-6 is your average development time. It's different, a narrower sample of talent and roster spots to be sure - but it's not *that* different.

This is right, its silly that so much time is spent arguing about requiring one year of college b/c changing that would help so few players. It would let more high school kids get paid, but more of them would fail and NBA teams would be over-paying in money, time and risk. Plus NBA would have to devote more resources to less effective evaluation of high school kids.

The rule can't be perfect, more kids & more NBA teams are helped by requiring 1 year of college than are hurt. And it helps the college game. Colleges win, NBA wins, non-ready kids win and a few isolated losses. Guys like Ben Simmons that don't belong in college lose and are fake students gaming the system, but there just aren't enough of those situations to legislate around that.

No college would flip to NBA, Colleges and most kids lose and 3-4 players and teams win. Not worth it.

 

[the Q]

I know the NCAA can't, but the NBA did block the kids with the one and done rule, so it's not like they can't get anything done on the draft. I can see players agreeing to having their rights drafted without foregoing a college career. It takes the pressure off the decision of when to go pro. It allows the NCAA to keep more talent. And fans win because these guys aren't over in China or Australia or Europe, they are allowed to develop here. Add the guaranteed contract (which 2nd rounders don't get now) and the player option that gives them a path to immediate free agency with a college degree, and I can see reasons why the NBPA would agree to the suggested changes.

They can do something with the draft, they did when they instituted the one and done rule. They just need to find the right terms that will satisfy the NBA and NBPA, and hopefully as a byproduct, improve the game in the NCAA.

Also, I didn't say anything about "blocking" the kids. Quite the opposite, I'm saying they should be drafted without losing eligibility. If they haven't signed a contract, then they haven't ceased being an amateur, some NBA team simply has their rights when they do go pro.

The NBA blocked them with the consent of the players association. the NBA cannot unilaterally make that change. And the players agreed, because as we've seen year after year, athletes are terrible at handling their business. They continue to get railed in CBA negotiations and leads them to make poor hiring decisions (Tony Clark, DeMo Smith, this new chick for the NBPA) who each get beat up badly at the negotiating table. This is one of the places the players should be giving the agents a bigger voice at.

Also, the Commissioner should be a neutral 3rd party, paid a % of the basketball revenue, but that's a separate issue.

 

[BlueMAB]

The NBA blocked them with the consent of the players association. the NBA cannot unilaterally make that change. And the players agreed, because as we've seen year after year, athletes are terrible at handling their business. They continue to get railed in CBA negotiations and leads them to make poor hiring decisions (Tony Clark, DeMo Smith, this new chick for the NBPA) who each get beat up badly at the negotiating table. This is one of the places the players should be giving the agents a bigger voice at.

Also, the Commissioner should be a neutral 3rd party, paid a % of the basketball revenue, but that's a separate issue.

okayyy....but as I said, my suggestion doesn't block anyone, in fact it makes it easier for them to get drafted without having to worry about eliminating their opportunity to play in college. It literally does the opposite of what you keep saying the NBA "can't do" (but already did).

 

[The Funster]

Have to stay three years??? This makes less sense than forcing kids to attend for a year. So we'll punish the players and their ability to earn money for college basketball fans?

If a kid doesn't want to go to college he can go overseas. If he wants to leave college after 2 years he can go overseas. I'd just like to see kids stay in college for 3 years. I'll settle for 2, no biggie.

 

[RJScootin]

If a kid doesn't want to go to college he can go overseas. If he wants to leave college after 2 years he can go overseas. I'd just like to see kids stay in college for 3 years. I'll settle for 2, no biggie.

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

 

[BlueMAB]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

 

[Dogdeacon]

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

The NBA does not want them. It might be inevitable b/c of free market that the rule changes and certainly the NBAs G-League is gearing up to address this, but even now they have the option of going to Europe to get paid (distasteful b/c they are kids = can't appreciate and b/c they will ride the pine - exactly why the NBA doesn't want them). I can't believe I have to make this point on a college hoops message board, but a handful of kids going to a good D1 basketball school and getting treated like gods for 9 months isn't a major problem that needs solving.

 

[intlzncster]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

The NBA is not a free market. It's a business. And forcing people to meet requirements is quite normal in business. Happens in all jobs; most require a four year college degree. Requiring a kid to mature physically and mentally makes sense for a big business such as the NBA.

 

[RJScootin]

The NBA is not a free market. It's a business. And forcing people to meet requirements is quite normal in business. Happens in all jobs; most require a four year college degree. Requiring a kid to mature physically and mentally makes sense for a big business such as the NBA.

So if Ben Simmons didn't go to college for a year he wouldn't have been drafted and paid millions? The NBA can choose not to hire/draft if they feel they don't meet requirements. This year of college is a joke. Its not even a year of college its 30 college basketball games.

 

[RJScootin]

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

I get what you're saying. But its not that simple. They lose value sitting out of going overseas to play for a year. I don't get the point of the one year. Its seems to punish those very few it affects and helps NCAA and NBA. I think you would feel different if you had millions in front of you but had to wait to benefit other company's first.

 

[intlzncster]

So if Ben Simmons didn't go to college for a year he wouldn't have been drafted and paid millions? The NBA can choose not to hire/draft if they feel they don't meet requirements. This year of college is a joke. Its not even a year of college its 30 college basketball games.

No one's questioning whether he was ready or not. I mean, I'm sure there are 20 year old kids who are ready to go into the professional world, but wouldn't be hired, simply because they didn't have their college diploma. They don't need it per se, but that's what businesses generally require.

 

[RJScootin]

The NBA does not want them. It might be inevitable b/c of free market that the rule changes and certainly the NBAs G-League is gearing up to address this, but even now they have the option of going to Europe to get paid (distasteful b/c they are kids = can't appreciate and b/c they will ride the pine - exactly why the NBA doesn't want them). I can't believe I have to make this point on a college hoops message board, but a handful of kids going to a good D1 basketball school and getting treated like gods for 9 months isn't a major problem that needs solving.

No one's questioning whether he was ready or not. I mean, I'm sure there are 20 year old kids who are ready to go into the professional world, but wouldn't be hired, simply because they didn't have their college diploma. They don't need it per se, but that's what businesses generally require.

But he would be hired, he would easily be drafted and start making millions and becoming a free agent earlier. I work in corporate america and "requirements" are to weed applicants or give a reason to not internally have to interview applicants. If they have their person theres always around "requirements". The real test is would they be drafted and the answer is yes. Its a bogus requirement.

 

[The Funster]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

Free markets are a myth. They don't exist in the real world. I'm getting into cesspool territory so I'll stop here

 

[Dogdeacon]

But he would be hired, he would easily be drafted and start making millions and becoming a free agent earlier. I work in corporate america and "requirements" are to weed applicants or give a reason to not internally have to interview applicants. If they have their person theres always around "requirements". The real test is would they be drafted and the answer is yes. Its a bogus requirement.

The test isn't would they be drafted, its would they be worth the draft pick and the money associated with that draft pick AND worth the scouting of high schools. NBA doesn't want to be scouting high school games, NBA doesn't want to pay kids that are 18-19 and not mentally and physically ready to contribute and the NBA doesn't like the higher volatility of results when drafting high schoolers. Its just insane small sample size theater to make this a big deal when only a few kids per year are ready. Far more would be drafted too high and flame out. The fact that so many rookies are doing well this year (vs last year total trash, Brogdon an older, multiple yr college player was ROY) seems proof to many that kids are ready BUT THEY ALL PLAYED ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE AND BEN SIMMONS IS TWO TWO YEARS OLDER.

Why be so concerned about a few individuals when the bigger impact is on quality of games and those that get drafted and fail to fulfill their potential?

 

[Dogdeacon]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)