One and Done Coming to an End?

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Baseballs 3 years if you enter rule is great.

 

[Chuck]

The impact will be interesting. And it probably won't be limited to what we expect.

I don't see a big impact on the disbursement of talent. I think there will be hard decisions for kids going right to the NBA. But if they aren't ready, then they won't mind going to Duke/Kentucky/Kansas/UNC because they can't go after their first year anyway, so it's not a big deal to play behind the next sophomore on deck.

In fact, it could lead to more top school dominance. There will be less quality to go around, and the top teams will get to keep their players for a couple years now.

I wonder if there will be more of a push for even the best players to sign early. Currently a team just has to worry about a verbal commit going to another school, now they'd have to worry about a kid blowing up and bailing on college altogether. It could cripple a recruiting class.

I think the real winner is the G League. If the NBA truly builds out the G League, you'll have a lot of talent that stops there for at least a little while. I can even see some teams stepping up their coaching budgets to bring in some true teachers (which they always say doesn't happen in the NBA). I'd look for a great college coach that just sucked at recruiting.

 

[jazyj]

You are stupid if you think the players association will agree to 3 years

 

[CL82]

I've always thought the answer is too not let schollies become available again to what would be a player's junior year. So a potential one and done would mean that you'd, effectively lose a scholarship for a couple of years. That would change the evaluation process considerably.

 

[Bezzz]

Yeah who needs a bar exam.

Good one. The architecture license exam when I took it in the 80's was 36 hours over 4 days. Chew on that one.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Most likely nothing.

I just don't understand why this ruffles your feathers so much.

Lol chill bud it really isn’t. I’m not sure if you’re projecting something here

What's the matter with him meeting with them?

There’s nothing the matter

 

[RJScootin]

Good news but I'd rather it be bargained that kids have to stay 3 years if they enter college.

Have to stay three years??? This makes less sense than forcing kids to attend for a year. So we'll punish the players and their ability to earn money for college basketball fans?

 

[Towney007]

To me - baseball has it nailed with their three year requirement.

You can leave from high school for the draft, go to JUCO and jump right in the draft OR you can go to college and play for three years before you're draft eligible. If you're a non-academic, you can be a pro, develop and teams like getting guys they can build up. If you want to improve your draft stock, you can play a year of JUCO ball, re-enter and hey - maybe the pot's a little sweeter. If you want a more structured developmental path - college is totally for you. And truth be told - the difference between High-A ball and the upper tier of D1 baseball is practically nothing in terms of top talent.

What that means is - for a kid who wants to play baseball professionally - it's a matter of the development path they want to take - and choose the best way to skin the proverbial cat. Not a gazillion dollar decision at 17. YES, the risk for injury is there to a degree, but either way - through bonus or scholarship - you have a fall back for an education. So the floor is only so low for you. And obviously the minor leagues in baseball are super important. There's a value on player development.

With the NBA - I just think there's an endless number of ways they can take things, from expanding the draft another round - to filling up their developmental ranks with interesting players, etc. And the college game might not have the tip-top tier talent, but the overall floor - I think - will come up in a major, major way like we've seen in baseball.

Baseball has a monstrous talent distribution relative to other sports. Conferences like the Big West (Cal St. Fullerton, Long Beach St, UC Davis, UC Irvine, etc) are power conferences in baseball. The American has been like 2 or 3 in RPI and now adding Wichita State - that'll be a fantastic baseball conference this year. The SOUTHLAND conference is usually a top 7 or 8 conference. My point is - teams can compete or at least have a chance to with really good coaching. Programs can blossom and emerge...

And yeah - the really good schools will likely remain really good schools. Distributing more talent and carving off the tippy-top hasn't hurt Texas much. Hasn't hurt Florida State. Or Southern California. Or Fullerton. Or Miami. Or LSU. They're still the big dogs on the block. But TCU and Vanderbilt have emerged as super powers. Southeast Louisiana and UConn are on fast tracks to becoming REALLY good programs. Southern Mississippi, Sam Houston State, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State - they've all cemented themselves in recent years as programs that aren't going away anytime soon. The Atlantic Sun has produced the National Player of the Year a few years ago (Max Pentecost) and Chris Sale within a few years of each other.

My point is the little guys have a real chance to do real damage and build themselves. Coaching begins to mean something. Rivalries and building things (other than facilities, by that I mean culture, tradition, systems and the like) mean something again. So I dunno - i'm excited to see one and done go away forever, if they can make it happen.

 

[Kitaman]

How can you legally prevent someone from leaving college, at any time to work?

Sure it sounds good, but will it uphold? The NBA and NCAA are two separate entities.

Perhaps use a penalty system applied to the University Athletic Dept., say if a player declares for the NBA after one year then his scholly can not be refilled until one complete year afterwards.

 

[Guapo]

Lol chill bud it really isn’t. I’m not sure if you’re projecting something here


There’s nothing the matter

You came here in swinging with some serious #hottakes

 

[Hey Adrien!]

This will never happen, but having a draft like how the NHL treats NCAA players could be fun. Unlike the NHL, high school players won't be allowed to be drafted, but you draft incoming sophomores but allow them to stay in college for as long as the NBA team doesn't sign the player. It eliminates the one-and-done rule, but allows a talented frosh like Henry Giles to get drafted, but play another season (or 3) in NCAA.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The NCAA hates one and done. The NBA put that in place, because drafting HS kids proved risky for the clubs, who ended up with a lot of duds, and who would see players blossom just as their rookie contracts ended. The NBA wanted a longer period in college, it was the union that blocked that.

My guess is that they are poised to do more with the D League, which has gotten stronger. They need to work it out with the union, but expect the NBA to push for a system where players drafted into the D League carry lower salaries and aren't eligible for free agency until a period of years after they are called up. Similar to baseball. They'd probably expand the draft another round at least as well.

I think you can expect the overall talent level in NCAA basketball to decline.

 

[upstater]

How can you legally prevent someone from leaving college, at any time to work?

Sure it sounds good, but will it uphold? The NBA and NCAA are two separate entities.

Perhaps use a penalty system applied to the University Athletic Dept., say if a player declares for the NBA after one year then his scholly can not be refilled until one complete year afterwards.

They're not prevented from leaving or working.

This is an NBA agreement not to take them on. It already happens with MLB.

 

[nomar]

Good news but I'd rather it be bargained that kids have to stay 3 years if they enter college.

As a college basketball fan, I agree.

As a civil libertarian, I don't.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They're not prevented from leaving or working.

This is an NBA agreement not to take them on. It already happens with MLB.

MLB has a path out of HS. An agreement between the NBA and NCAA that the NBA will not seek to employ kids for x years would be tossed out on antitrust grounds rather quickly. They are competing leagues for the same talent.

Both Hockey and Baseball have more functional systems, because they have fully functional minor leagues. The NBA will move in that direction and do more with the D league. It's a logical step. In football, there aren't enough players to run a minor league without ending college football as we know it.

 

[jazyj]

If their is a 3 year rule their is nothing stoping a kid who blows up after a year or two from getting a monster deal in Europe. If there was a 3 year rule are you telling me a kid like John Collins wouldn’t have gotten a multi million dollar deal to play in Europe after his sophomore season.

 

[Guapo]

The NCAA hates one and done. The NBA put that in place, because drafting HS kids proved risky for the clubs, who ended up with a lot of duds, and who would see players blossom just as their rookie contracts ended. The NBA wanted a longer period in college, it was the union that blocked that.

My guess is that they are poised to do more with the D League, which has gotten stronger. They need to work it out with the union, but expect the NBA to push for a system where players drafted into the D League carry lower salaries and aren't eligible for free agency until a period of years after they are called up. Similar to baseball. They'd probably expand the draft another round at least as well.

I think you can expect the overall talent level in NCAA basketball to decline.

I think the overall talent level would dip slightly but the overall quality of the product would increase.

 

[Kitaman]

They're not prevented from leaving or working.

This is an NBA agreement not to take them on. It already happens with MLB.

OK I see. Thanks

 

[Fishy]

I see no reason to restrict any player from going pro at any point.

The one and done rule does nothing for college basketball - they’re basically babysitting some kids so that the NBA doesn’t have to figure out what to do with an 18-year old kid. It also makes the draft more risky as you’re judging some of these prospects on how they performed against East Nowhere High instead of the ACC or SEC.

Eliminating the rule also removes the myth that these kids are somehow forced to attend college due the absence of a pro option.

 

[upstater]

MLB has a path out of HS. An agreement between the NBA and NCAA that the NBA will not seek to employ kids for x years would be tossed out on antitrust grounds rather quickly. They are competing leagues for the same talent.

Both Hockey and Baseball have more functional systems, because they have fully functional minor leagues. The NBA will move in that direction and do more with the D league. It's a logical step. In football, there aren't enough players to run a minor league without ending college football as we know it.

If the NBA just adopted the MLB approach, how would that violate antitrust (I'm sure the NBA has already figured this out). Whether it should be done is another story--I'm sure the NBA has found a legal way to do it.

 

[FartMan69]

I'm not sure the ratio of success to busts but the draft rules before the one and done seemed fine, no? I mean yeah you get the Kwame Brown's and Darius Miles but there are players who have absolutely no business pretending to be anything other than a pro basketball player at age 18. Lebron, KG and Kobe pretty much the best players since Magic, Bird and Jordan all benefited and college basketball was no doubt better during that time too. I like Silver a lot because he seems to well aware of basketball fans and this will get done but stop clamoring for a 3 year rule because that's banana land.

 

[intlzncster]

You are stupid if you think the players association will agree to 3 years

I don't know what they think per se, but I can see scenarios where they agree to it. The Players Association is primarily made up of veterans, many whom are fighting for contracts. They aren't beholden to guys who are yet to be NBA players.

 

[intlzncster]

To me - baseball has it nailed with their three year requirement.

You can leave from high school for the draft, go to JUCO and jump right in the draft OR you can go to college and play for three years before you're draft eligible. If you're a non-academic, you can be a pro, develop and teams like getting guys they can build up. If you want to improve your draft stock, you can play a year of JUCO ball, re-enter and hey - maybe the pot's a little sweeter. If you want a more structured developmental path - college is totally for you. And truth be told - the difference between High-A ball and the upper tier of D1 baseball is practically nothing in terms of top talent.

What that means is - for a kid who wants to play baseball professionally - it's a matter of the development path they want to take - and choose the best way to skin the proverbial cat. Not a gazillion dollar decision at 17. YES, the risk for injury is there to a degree, but either way - through bonus or scholarship - you have a fall back for an education. So the floor is only so low for you. And obviously the minor leagues in baseball are super important. There's a value on player development.

With the NBA - I just think there's an endless number of ways they can take things, from expanding the draft another round - to filling up their developmental ranks with interesting players, etc. And the college game might not have the tip-top tier talent, but the overall floor - I think - will come up in a major, major way like we've seen in baseball.

Baseball has a monstrous talent distribution relative to other sports. Conferences like the Big West (Cal St. Fullerton, Long Beach St, UC Davis, UC Irvine, etc) are power conferences in baseball. The American has been like 2 or 3 in RPI and now adding Wichita State - that'll be a fantastic baseball conference this year. The SOUTHLAND conference is usually a top 7 or 8 conference. My point is - teams can compete or at least have a chance to with really good coaching. Programs can blossom and emerge...

And yeah - the really good schools will likely remain really good schools. Distributing more talent and carving off the tippy-top hasn't hurt Texas much. Hasn't hurt Florida State. Or Southern California. Or Fullerton. Or Miami. Or LSU. They're still the big dogs on the block. But TCU and Vanderbilt have emerged as super powers. Southeast Louisiana and UConn are on fast tracks to becoming REALLY good programs. Southern Mississippi, Sam Houston State, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State - they've all cemented themselves in recent years as programs that aren't going away anytime soon. The Atlantic Sun has produced the National Player of the Year a few years ago (Max Pentecost) and Chris Sale within a few years of each other.

My point is the little guys have a real chance to do real damage and build themselves. Coaching begins to mean something. Rivalries and building things (other than facilities, by that I mean culture, tradition, systems and the like) mean something again. So I dunno - i'm excited to see one and done go away forever, if they can make it happen.

The problem with that it is it normally takes years to develop competitive young baseball players. NBA talent is often ready far quicker.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I see no reason to restrict any player from going pro at any point.

The one and done rule does nothing for college basketball - they’re basically babysitting some kids so that the NBA doesn’t have to figure out what to do with an 18-year old kid. It also makes the draft more risky as you’re judging some of these prospects on how they performed against East Nowhere High instead of the ACC or SEC.

Eliminating the rule also removes the myth that these kids are somehow forced to attend college due the absence of a pro option.

I get that you don’t agree with it but you articulated the reason pretty well. It’s just not in the best interest of the league to eliminate this rule. Removes some risk and I’m sure makes it cheaper as you have much more video available in college and don’t have to have scouts traveling around to random high schools as well as colleges.

 

[HuskyHawk]

If the NBA just adopted the MLB approach, how would that violate antitrust (I'm sure the NBA has already figured this out). Whether it should be done is another story--I'm sure the NBA has found a legal way to do it.

Should be fine if they let them be drafted and go pro out of HS. Then require if they go to college they stay 2-3 years.