One and Done Coming to an End?

[BlueMAB]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

 

[Dogdeacon]

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

The NBA does not want them. It might be inevitable b/c of free market that the rule changes and certainly the NBAs G-League is gearing up to address this, but even now they have the option of going to Europe to get paid (distasteful b/c they are kids = can't appreciate and b/c they will ride the pine - exactly why the NBA doesn't want them). I can't believe I have to make this point on a college hoops message board, but a handful of kids going to a good D1 basketball school and getting treated like gods for 9 months isn't a major problem that needs solving.

 

[intlzncster]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

The NBA is not a free market. It's a business. And forcing people to meet requirements is quite normal in business. Happens in all jobs; most require a four year college degree. Requiring a kid to mature physically and mentally makes sense for a big business such as the NBA.

 

[RJScootin]

The NBA is not a free market. It's a business. And forcing people to meet requirements is quite normal in business. Happens in all jobs; most require a four year college degree. Requiring a kid to mature physically and mentally makes sense for a big business such as the NBA.

So if Ben Simmons didn't go to college for a year he wouldn't have been drafted and paid millions? The NBA can choose not to hire/draft if they feel they don't meet requirements. This year of college is a joke. Its not even a year of college its 30 college basketball games.

 

[RJScootin]

There is literally nothing "forcing" them to earn money for the NCAA. They can sit out a year and do absolutely nothing, then enter their name into the draft. They can go to foreign leagues. Or they can go to college. These kids have more options than most Americans.

I don't like the one and done rule, but these guys aren't victims, they have options.

I get what you're saying. But its not that simple. They lose value sitting out of going overseas to play for a year. I don't get the point of the one year. Its seems to punish those very few it affects and helps NCAA and NBA. I think you would feel different if you had millions in front of you but had to wait to benefit other company's first.

 

[intlzncster]

So if Ben Simmons didn't go to college for a year he wouldn't have been drafted and paid millions? The NBA can choose not to hire/draft if they feel they don't meet requirements. This year of college is a joke. Its not even a year of college its 30 college basketball games.

No one's questioning whether he was ready or not. I mean, I'm sure there are 20 year old kids who are ready to go into the professional world, but wouldn't be hired, simply because they didn't have their college diploma. They don't need it per se, but that's what businesses generally require.

 

[RJScootin]

The NBA does not want them. It might be inevitable b/c of free market that the rule changes and certainly the NBAs G-League is gearing up to address this, but even now they have the option of going to Europe to get paid (distasteful b/c they are kids = can't appreciate and b/c they will ride the pine - exactly why the NBA doesn't want them). I can't believe I have to make this point on a college hoops message board, but a handful of kids going to a good D1 basketball school and getting treated like gods for 9 months isn't a major problem that needs solving.

No one's questioning whether he was ready or not. I mean, I'm sure there are 20 year old kids who are ready to go into the professional world, but wouldn't be hired, simply because they didn't have their college diploma. They don't need it per se, but that's what businesses generally require.

But he would be hired, he would easily be drafted and start making millions and becoming a free agent earlier. I work in corporate america and "requirements" are to weed applicants or give a reason to not internally have to interview applicants. If they have their person theres always around "requirements". The real test is would they be drafted and the answer is yes. Its a bogus requirement.

 

[The Funster]

These kids should live in the same free market all Americans do. Forcing them to earn money for NCAA and get free development for NBA is a joke.

Free markets are a myth. They don't exist in the real world. I'm getting into cesspool territory so I'll stop here

 

[Dogdeacon]

But he would be hired, he would easily be drafted and start making millions and becoming a free agent earlier. I work in corporate america and "requirements" are to weed applicants or give a reason to not internally have to interview applicants. If they have their person theres always around "requirements". The real test is would they be drafted and the answer is yes. Its a bogus requirement.

The test isn't would they be drafted, its would they be worth the draft pick and the money associated with that draft pick AND worth the scouting of high schools. NBA doesn't want to be scouting high school games, NBA doesn't want to pay kids that are 18-19 and not mentally and physically ready to contribute and the NBA doesn't like the higher volatility of results when drafting high schoolers. Its just insane small sample size theater to make this a big deal when only a few kids per year are ready. Far more would be drafted too high and flame out. The fact that so many rookies are doing well this year (vs last year total trash, Brogdon an older, multiple yr college player was ROY) seems proof to many that kids are ready BUT THEY ALL PLAYED ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE AND BEN SIMMONS IS TWO TWO YEARS OLDER.

Why be so concerned about a few individuals when the bigger impact is on quality of games and those that get drafted and fail to fulfill their potential?

 

[Dogdeacon]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)

 

[UConnJim]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

 

[BlueMAB]

I get what you're saying. But its not that simple. They lose value sitting out of going overseas to play for a year. I don't get the point of the one year. Its seems to punish those very few it affects and helps NCAA and NBA. I think you would feel different if you had millions in front of you but had to wait to benefit other company's first.

No, I don't like the rule. I've outlined an alternative above that I think would be most beneficial to all parties. But that year doesn't only benefit the NCAA/school. It can benefit the player as well through continued development. Many kids have insurance policies in case they get hurt.

And the kids who are forced to play the year in college when they might have gone pro, like Hamidou Diallo (?), are occasionally exposed for not being ready, which in the long run helps the NBA's overall product. Which was the point of the rule.

Individual teams may want to draft those HS players based on the risk/reward, but it wasn't helping the NBA product as a whole. So what was good for a few players/teams was sacrificed for the NBA as an entity. It's not about whether these kids would be drafted, it's about whether the NBA game is improved when these kids are drafted. They determined that it's not, so as a business, they made a decision to try and improve their product by eliminating the option to take guys straight out of HS. I don't like it, but I understand it.

And no, I wouldn't mind having the pick of any major college, and enjoying that life for a year or two, before going pro. Because your belief that it only helps "other companies" isn't true. It can help the kid both as a player, and potentially when the playing career is over and guys want to get into coaching.

 

[Dogdeacon]

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

 

[the Q]

You are being way too harsh. I would say that the list has performed pretty well as there were very few true busts (Ebi and Swift, as Diop still played 12 years in the NBA) listed. Plus, many NBA picks have been busts and they come from college and are foreigners as well.

First, Louis Williams, who was the 45th pick in 2005, is playing his 13th season in the NBA and has averaged 12.9 ppg for his career and he is averaging 17.1 ppg this season! He is not performing below expectations.

Did Dorell Wright who was picked 19th, but played 11 years in the NBA and averaged 8.4 ppg perform below expectations? From 1998 to 2008, here is how the 19th overall pick performed on average: 8 years, 8.8 ppg. I would say Wright performed in line with expectations. Gerald Green was an 18th pick and played 10 seasons and averaged 9.6 points per game, so I would say he met expectations as well.

Andrew Bynum was the 10th pick. He played 8 seasons and averaged 11.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, played on 2 NBA championship teams, and he was an All-NBA pick in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries limited him, but I don't think he underperformed.

Tyson Chandler may have somewhat underperformed, but he is still playing in the NBA, his 17th season! If we redrafted the 2001 draft, he would still be about the 10th pick. By the way, here is the median stats of the #2 pick from 1998 to 2008: 10 years, 12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 apg. vs Chandler at 17 years, 8.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, and 0.8 apg. I think he has performed in line with past #2 picks although some may argue that there have been few excellent #2s in that time period except Kevin Durant.

And, anybody who is picked in the 2nd round is a flier. From 1998 to 2008, only 27% of draft picks played more than 5 years in the NBA

Don't forget chandler has totally retooled his game from when he came out.

Bynum was a stud before his freak bowling injury ended his career.

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

Penalizing Bynum for suffering a career ending knee injury is kinda unfair. That bowling injury could've happened to anyone with any level of education.

 

[UConnJim]

You have to factor in how the picks did in their first few years when they were under rookie/binding contracts.
Louis Williams I missed, didn't know he was LOU - change to ABOVE
DWright played 6 yrs with Miami averaged 2.3, 2.9, 6, 7.9, 3.1 PPG that sucks BELOW
Gerald Green spent most of 1st season in D-league 5ppg in NBA, then 10pts next year then traded as flotsam to MN along with Al Jefferson, Gomes (why didn't UConn sign him?!), Ratliff & Telfair for Garnett. Green then averaged <6ppg over ensuing 2yrs for two different teams then played overseas for 2yrs & finally came back as 25yr old & became a decent NBA bench player. Do we think college would have helped him?! BELOW
Bynum -c'mon, he would have gone to UConn, he's not a better pro with a year of Jim Calhoun! He averaged 1.6 his first year & 7.8 his 2nd. But the Lakers kept him and he emerged as a star for 5yrs. He was done by the age of 26 and therefore not exactly a great systemic argument for high schoolers in the NBA (benefitted himself & Lakers, overall negative for league) - nonetheless b/c of championship change to ABOVE
Tyson Chandler - 5yrs in Chicago averaged 1-6PPG, 4.8RPG, yr2-9.2, 6.9, yr3-6.1, 7.7,yr4-8.0, 9.7,yr5 5.3, 9.0. Struggled to stay on court due to foul problems, injuries & feuded with teammates, only once he was traded to NOrleans (for JR Smith & PJ Brown - not #2 pick-ish value) did he emerge as the player he ultimately became. Chicago didn't get close to your avg #2 value for their 5yrs. BELOW

So revised count among lottery is 4 ABOVE vs 10 BELOW - I think that's still worth the 1&done rule.

I think you are over rating how NBA draft picks perform by draft position.

The #19th NBA draft pick is usually not a standout player. Here is the list of #19 picks from 1998 to 2008: Pat Garrity (10 years, 7.3 ppg), Quincy Lewis (4 years, 2.6 ppg), Jamaal Magliore (12 years, 7.2 ppg), Zach Randolph (17 years, 16.7 ppg), Ryan Humphrey (3 years, 2.3 ppg), Sasha Pavlovic (10 years, 4.9 ppg), Dorell Wright (11 years, 8.4 ppg) , Hakim Warrick (8 years, 9.4 ppg) Quincy Douby (3 years, 10.7 ppg), Javaris Crittenton (2 years, 5.3 ppg), and JJ Hickson (8 years, 9.5 ppg). Dorell Wright performed in-line with other #19 picks. By saying Dorell Wright performed below expectations, you are saying all of the #19 picks listed, except Randolph, performed below expectations.

Look at the #18 picks: Mirsad Turkcan (1 year, 1.9 ppg), James Posey (12 years, 8.6 ppg), Quentin Richardson (13 years, 10.3 ppg), Jason Collins (13 years, 3.6 ppg), Curtis Borchardt (2 years, 3.1 ppg), David West (15 years, 14.0 ppg), JR Smith (14 years, 12.8 ppg), Gerald Green (10 years, 9.6 ppg), Oleksiy Pecherov (3 years, 3.9 ppg), Marco Belinelli (11 years, 9.7 ppg), JaVale McGee (1o years, 7.7 ppg). Green has performed in line with the other 18th picks.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I think you are over rating how NBA draft picks perform by draft position.

The #19th NBA draft pick is usually not a standout player. Here is the list of #19 picks from 1998 to 2008: Pat Garrity (10 years, 7.3 ppg), Quincy Lewis (4 years, 2.6 ppg), Jamaal Magliore (12 years, 7.2 ppg), Zach Randolph (17 years, 16.7 ppg), Ryan Humphrey (3 years, 2.3 ppg), Sasha Pavlovic (10 years, 4.9 ppg), Dorell Wright (11 years, 8.4 ppg) , Hakim Warrick (8 years, 9.4 ppg) Quincy Douby (3 years, 10.7 ppg), Javaris Crittenton (2 years, 5.3 ppg), and JJ Hickson (8 years, 9.5 ppg). Dorell Wright performed in-line with other #19 picks. By saying Dorell Wright performed below expectations, you are saying all of the #19 picks listed, except Randolph, performed below expectations.

Look at the #18 picks: Mirsad Turkcan (1 year, 1.9 ppg), James Posey (12 years, 8.6 ppg), Quentin Richardson (13 years, 10.3 ppg), Jason Collins (13 years, 3.6 ppg), Curtis Borchardt (2 years, 3.1 ppg), David West (15 years, 14.0 ppg), JR Smith (14 years, 12.8 ppg), Gerald Green (10 years, 9.6 ppg), Oleksiy Pecherov (3 years, 3.9 ppg), Marco Belinelli (11 years, 9.7 ppg), JaVale McGee (1o years, 7.7 ppg). Green has performed in line with the other 18th picks.

#19 - You stopped arbitrarily in 2008 b/c then next 3 years were Jeff Teague, Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris all starters and infinitely better than Mr Wright. And again Wright sucked for the team that drafted him - that matters most.
#18 - I said Green returned to form, but again his first few years were lousy and ended up with him playing 2 years in Russia! Fake news

 

[intlzncster]

Here is a list of high school draftees since 2000 and how they did vs draft position (ABOVE OR BELOW Expectations for draft position)
For Lottery Picks 3 ABOVE< 11 BELOW
Overall 12 ABOVE, 22 below
= NOT WORTH IT!
2000
Darius Miles - 3rd overall - BELOW
DeShawn Stevenson - 23rd ABOVE (arguably tho head case and hasn't reached physical potential)
2001
Kwame Brown - 1st BUST
Tyson Chandler - 2nd BELOW (good career but not for #2 pick)
Eddy Curry - 4th BELOW
DeSagana Diop - 8th BELOW
Ousmane Cisse - 46th BELOW
2002
Amar'e Stoudemire - 9th ABOVE
2003
LeBron James - 1 ABOVE
Travis Outlaw - 23rd ABOVE
Ndubi Ebi (who?) 26th BELOW
Kendrick Perkins 27th ABOVE
James Lang - (who?) 48th BELOW
2004
Dwight Howard - 1st ABOVE
Shaun Livingston 4th BELOW (not his fault, injury)
Robert Swift 12th BELOW
Sebastian Telfair 13th BELOW
Al Jefferson 15th ABOVE
Josh Smith 17th ABOVE
JR Smith 18th ABOVE
Dorell Wright 19th BELOW
2005
Martell Webster 6th BELOW
Andrew Bynum 10th BELOW
Gerald Green 18th BELOW
CJ Miles 34th ABOVE
Ricky Sanchez 35th BELOW
Monta Ellis 40 ABOVE
Louis Williams (who?) 45th BELOW
Andray Blatche 49th BELOW
Amir Johnson 56th ABOVE
-------------------------2006 one & done rule begins--------------------------------
Satnam Singh 52nd BELOW
Thon Maker 10th BELOW (some tbd potential)

This only makes sense if you do it for every draftee, for context. What percentage of players 'bust' relative to their draft position every year? It might look exactly like this distribution for all we know.