Non-Key Tweets

[Fairfield_1st]

If one school leaves the PAC 12, all the schools leave the PAC 12. There is no scenario in which UConn joins the Big 12 with just one pac 12 school.

Since we know from our history that schools will do whatever is in their best interest, loyalty be damned, I don't see why just 1 can't leave. Maybe you could expand on why you think the PAC is an all or nothing entity.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Since we know from our history that schools will do whatever is in their best interest, loyalty be damned, I don't see why just 1 can't leave. Maybe you could expand on why you think the PAC is an all or nothing entity.

What will the other 9 schools do when 1 leaves?

They will act in their own best interest, which means they will all run for the door. Do you think the Big 12 will take UConn over Oregon or Arizona or Washington? No chance.

The ONLY WAY this "1 Pac 12 team partnering with UConn" scenario works is if the other 9 schools shut down their athletic programs. Doesn't seem very likely, does it?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Since we know from our history that schools will do whatever is in their best interest, loyalty be damned, I don't see why just 1 can't leave. Maybe you could expand on why you think the PAC is an all or nothing entity.

Waylon is being intentionally obtuse here as he evidently believes it makes him look smarter.

One reality that he is ignoring is that it is very possible for some schools to P-12 as a better home for the time being even if the B-12 may be able to offer a few more dollars. The P-12 schools in states on the west coast most likely would never consider leaving (this represents 60% of the conference). Two are very confident that they will have a home at some point in the B1G, two believe (maybe a bit unrealistically) there is a chance they may have a home at some point in the B1G and two likely realize that their best hope of remaining in what will at a minimum be labelled as a power conference will be in-state politics preventing their big brothers from moving on. If they were to try to leave the P-12 on their own, they would lose that.

Of the remaining four, only one was once a member of the B-12 (they in fact have relationships with many current members going back a century due to their being a founding member of the B-8). There is a very strong chance that the monetary difference required for the other four corner schools to consider moving conferences is far larger than for Colorado. Additionally, the other four corner schools owe their stature as power conference members to the P-12 offering them a place in that conference, Colorado does not.

All things being equal, yes, if the B-12 can offer more money it should be the more attractive conference. The reality is that all things are not equal and there will be quite a bit to be considered before moving. If the revenue disparity is significant, that leads to a different equation than if the revenue disparity merely noticeable. If, the P-12 media deal comes in ~80%-85% of the B-12's Colorado may be the only school willing to pay the exit fees to make the move, I imagine other P-12 schools would need a larger increase (over P-12 media revenues) to jump. For all we know, Colorado may be willing to jump even if it ends up neutral after departure fees. I doubt any other P-12 school would consider this.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't follow that logic at all, but go ahead - own it. Colorado joined along with Utah in 2011, prior to that AZ and AZ state joined in 1978 - the rest have been together much longer. Regardless of time, there is no hard rule that pulling one Jenga block tumbles the tower....particularly when it was the top block and frankly an underperformer.

I'm not going to sit here and rule out scenarios as it relates to the P12 and B12. Seems to me most reasonable outcomes remain on the board including a scenario where only Colorado leaves.

It might not topple the tower, but do you think any of the Pac 12 schools will stick behind in a 9 team league when they can just muscle us out of our Big 12 spot?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

What will the other 9 schools do when 1 leaves?

They will act in their own best interest, which means they will all run for the door. Do you think the Big 12 will take UConn over Oregon or Arizona or Washington? No chance.

The ONLY WAY this "1 Pac 12 team partnering with UConn" scenario works is if the other 9 schools shut down their athletic programs. Doesn't seem very likely, does it?

Running for the door is not necessarily om their best interest. I will go so far as to state that for the bulk of the conference remaining is far better for their interests than leaving (unless the B1G calls).

 

[UConnTrumbull]

What will the other 9 schools do when 1 leaves?

They will act in their own best interest, which means they will all run for the door. Do you think the Big 12 will take UConn over Oregon or Arizona or Washington? No chance.

The ONLY WAY this "1 Pac 12 team partnering with UConn" scenario works is if the other 9 schools shut down their athletic programs. Doesn't seem very likely, does it?

Or, hear me out, the PAC could expand with SDSU or SMU or Colorado State instead of imploding.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You were already on the other side of this argument saying that if more than one PAC12 team left we were doomed. So the chances are no longer 50/50 if you understand math. They're Zero. But I'm sure there's another card left to play that you can dream up to backfill your last 50 posts.

You guys just need to get there faster. If more than one Pac 12 team leaves, we are doomed. I think it is better than 50/50 the Pac 12 stays together as is, or even adds a school or two. At that point, I think UConn has a decent shot of being added as a single addition to the Big 12.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Running for the door is not necessarily om their best interest. I will go so far as to state that for the bulk of the conference remaining is far better for their interests than leaving (unless the B1G calls).

The only way any Pac 12 school leaves is if the TV contract is problematic. If that happens, they will all want to leave.

Do you know how I know I am right about none of the remaining schools wanting to leave the Pac 12 unless the league is coming apart? Because none of the remaining Pac 12 schools have tried to leave the league. Do you think the Big 12 would have added UCF, Cincinnati or Houston if any of the Pac 12 schools had wanted in? Of course not. Unless you have "inside information", it is safe to assume that the Pac 12 schools think this is going to work out. If something happens to change that perception, they will all be running for the door.

See Old Big East (Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pitt, UConn, Louisville, USF) if you want to see what that looks like.

 

[Exit 4]

The ONLY WAY this "1 Pac 12 team partnering with UConn" scenario works is if the other 9 schools shut down their athletic programs. Doesn't seem very likely, does it?

Its statements like this when you realize you are not conversing with someone with a full deck of cards.

Can't believe Oregon hasn't already shut down when USC and UCLA left.
Can't believe USF, Cincy and UConn didn't shut down when the BE crumbled.
Can't believe Temple even exists at all. My god - kicked out by their conference with a literal boot years ago.
Wholesale exit of D1 sports doesn't happen too often. None of the above died the day things got bad.

A more likely scenario is that the P12 just adds SDST. All indications are Yormark is not prepared for any kind of B12-P12 merger. He has the green light to add 1-4 schools and that's it at this hr. The media world wants to digest the current landscape before kicking off the next thing. You have a better argument that somehow, someway we see Cal and Stanford push for that 4th spot. But I think those schools will wait it out for something else.....even independence before joining Baylor and Co.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Its statements like this when you realize you are not conversing with someone with a full deck of cards.

Can't believe Oregon hasn't already shut down when USC and UCLA left.
Can't believe USF, Cincy and UConn didn't shut down when the BE crumbled.
Can't believe Temple even exists at all. My god - kicked out by their conference with a literal boot years ago.
Wholesale exit of D1 sports doesn't happen too often. None of the above died the day things got bad.

A more likely scenario is that the P12 just adds SDST. All indications are Yormark is not prepared for any kind of B12-P12 merger. He has the green light to add 1-4 schools and that's it at this hr. The media world wants to digest the current landscape before kicking off the next thing. You have a better argument that somehow, someway we see Cal and Stanford push for that 4th spot. But I think those schools will wait it out for something else.....even independence before joining Baylor and Co.

I have explained my position to you about 10 times. You don't understand it. That is not my fault.

 

[uchusky32]

This is an interesting topic. PAC schools have an advantage over UConn, Foolball. But when it comes to new contract have a problem with timezone.


Which problem will be a bigger problem long term? I'm not sure if timezone can be fixed.

 

[Patman]

Reality is most of the pac schools don't have much other choices or don't want to make those choices. Oregon and Washington want the big10 and won't settle for a lateral at best move. The California schools don't see athletics as that high of a priority. OrSU and WSU don't have the ability to move big12s interest. so... Utah. Unsure about them but I don't they they have interest in an eastward facing league. This leaves the Arizona pair and Colorado. AZ pair probably don't want to leave the west coast paradigm but see the money issue. They are probably better off staying in their own lane than buying into the b12 world.

Colorado. I think it's already been said. They were b8/b12. They're floaters and will move wherever the grass looks the best.

PAC12 is only stable because none of the partners want to move. It's not that they can't. It's just they have their own reasons. However their own little reasons is why getting a media deal has been a mess

Reality is that we know 3-5 of the schools want out or are looking outward.

 

[Exit 4]

I have explained my position to you about 10 times. You don't understand it. That is not my fault.

Oh I understand it. The position is faulty...but moreover, its the certainty of the position that is particularly questionable.

So to summarize on the one hand, no P12 schools wants the B12, but on the other hand if Colorado does, then all of them do and UConn is screwed. Fine - we'll just see what happens of course.

I happen to think Yormark doesn't want a conference that is over weighted in the west. If Yormark was a TX guy or LA guy I would think differently. Fortunately he is a NY guy and has been campaigning hard to bring the B12 to the east coast and I dont think that suddenly goes out the window.

 

[uconnyankee]

Who really knows anything? If it's CR related the person has somewhat of a following i bring it back here. Everybody has a "source"these days. This guy has "The King" source. Can't beat Royalty!

What bothers me is, nothing that I recall in CR has gone the way of what all the pundits and CR have been talking about.

Whatever happens, always seems to be behind curtain #3, the one nobody is looking at.

 

[uconnyankee]

What will the other 9 schools do when 1 leaves?

They will act in their own best interest, which means they will all run for the door. Do you think the Big 12 will take UConn over Oregon or Arizona or Washington? No chance.

The ONLY WAY this "1 Pac 12 team partnering with UConn" scenario works is if the other 9 schools shut down their athletic programs. Doesn't seem very likely, does it?

Big 12 has to extend invite.

 

[businesslawyer]

It really doesn't matter whose argument is stronger or less ridiculous -- only whether or not the XII invites us. My money is still on not, at least for the near future. Simply because until such time as the NCAA stops totally funding its operations and spreading the wealth with basketball tourney money, and leaving its hands off the football postseason pie, I don't see our school as being worth $50M in the near or intermediate terms. We could be worth $50M if the NCAA funded itself and payments to smaller schools and conferences proportionately with football and basketball money, but it doesn't.

Whether Yormark was on our campus to pressure the Four Corners schools or to actually look at what we had and how much money could be generated from us or as a favor to pressure another conference to act, I wouldn't begin to guess. But one doesn't need to be as melodramatic as Waylon to still doubt this is going to happen.

 

[BlueandOG]

The only way any Pac 12 school leaves is if the TV contract is problematic. If that happens, they will all want to leave.

Do you know how I know I am right about none of the remaining schools wanting to leave the Pac 12 unless the league is coming apart? Because none of the remaining Pac 12 schools have tried to leave the league. Do you think the Big 12 would have added UCF, Cincinnati or Houston if any of the Pac 12 schools had wanted in? Of course not. Unless you have "inside information", it is safe to assume that the Pac 12 schools think this is going to work out. If something happens to change that perception, they will all be running for the door.

See Old Big East (Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pitt, UConn, Louisville, USF) if you want to see what that looks like.

I have a different take. I believe (hope) that the B12 has two goals for the conference: solidify their status as the premier hoops league and plant a flag in the NYC-area market. Both of those goals would add money and prestige to the conference. UCONN hits both of those targets. UCONN is the only available school (outside of something crazy like ND joining the B12) that will add to the B12's revenue. Any PAC12 team will only add to the number of schools cutting up the conference revenue.

UCONN is the most important piece of the B12 expansion plan. They hope to shake out a PAC 12 team, but if not, they will ask us as full members and add Gonzaga or St. John's as a hoops only member.

 

[businesslawyer]

I have a different take. I believe (hope) that the B12 has two goals for the conference: solidify their status as the premier hoops league and plant a flag in the NYC-area market. Both of those goals would add money and prestige to the conference. UCONN hits both of those targets. UCONN is the only available school (outside of something crazy like ND joining the B12) that will add to the B12's revenue. Any PAC12 team will only add to the number of schools cutting up the conference revenue.

UCONN is the most important piece of the B12 expansion plan. They hope to shake out a PAC 12 team, but if not, they will ask us as full members and add Gonzaga or St. John's as a hoops only member.

So if we're that important to the Big XII, the reason that they didn't bring us in by June 30, instead of waiting an additional year, would be what exactly? It taking us makes them more money, why would they wait to see what Colorado would do (or for any other event)?

 

[BlueandOG]

So if we're that important to the Big XII, the reason that they didn't bring us in by June 30, instead of waiting an additional year, would be what exactly? It taking us makes them more money, why would they wait to see what Colorado would do (or for any other event)?

We add value but they won't take us alone. They prefer adding us with a PAC-12 member, so they will wait until the dust settles on their contract. If they can't get a PAC-12 team to leave, they will either 1) add us with Gonzaga or St. Johns (hoops only) or wait until another partner for us comes along. They know we are available.

 

[businesslawyer]

We add value but they won't take us alone. They prefer adding us with a PAC-12 member, so they will wait until the dust settles on their contract. If they can't get a PAC-12 team to leave, they will either 1) add us with Gonzaga or St. Johns (hoops only) or wait until another partner for us comes along. They know we are available.

If we add value, why would they delay upon realizing that value? Does that make sense?

 

[BlueandOG]

We add value but they won't take us alone. They prefer adding us with a PAC-12 member, so they will wait until the dust settles on their contract. If they can't get a PAC-12 team to leave, they will either 1) add us with Gonzaga or St. Johns (hoops only or wait until another partner for us comes along. They know we are available.

If we add value, why would they delay upon realizing that value? Does that make sense?

It does. The B12 will make the announcement about conference realignment when the plan is finalized. The plan won't be finalized until the PAC deal is done. Once the PAC deal is done, the B12 will know whether they can convince a PAC school to join us or not. If they can, they announce UCONN and PAC School X. If not, they weigh the pros and cons of adding UCONN and a hoops-only school or waiting to see if they can add UCONN and another P5 school at a later point. Time is on their side. They know 1) we are the primary target for our market, which they want to add, 2) we are the best hoops add to solidify their status as the premier hoops league, and 3) we are not going to the PAC, B10, ACC, or SEC.

 

[Blades]

Anything Marc Tweets is key. Even if it's what he had for lunch yesterday.

 

[businesslawyer]

It does. The B12 will make the announcement about conference realignment when the plan is finalized. The plan won't be finalized until the PAC deal is done. Once the PAC deal is done, the B12 will know whether they can convince a PAC school to join us or not. If they can, they announce UCONN and PAC School X. If not, they weigh the pros and cons of adding UCONN and a hoops-only school or waiting to see if they can add UCONN and another P5 school at a later point. Time is on their side. They know 1) we are the primary target for our market, which they want to add, 2) we are the best hoops add to solidify their status as the premier hoops league, and 3) we are not going to the PAC, B10, ACC, or SEC.

With all due respect (and no, unlike Ricky Bobby I'm not going to follow that with an insult), you still haven't told me why if UConn adds value they wouldn't have added UConn now and filled the last slot later. What did they gain, if we add value, but not pulling the trigger on us now?

 

[Urcea]

It might not topple the tower, but do you think any of the Pac 12 schools will stick behind in a 9 team league when they can just muscle us out of our Big 12 spot?

Because they like being in a culturally similar academically elite institution. Athletics aren't everything. In a situation where the PAC media deal is 15% less than the Big 12, most people will stick around. Colorado is the one in a unique spot, due to previous ties, football ambition, etc.

 

[CL82]

So if we're that important to the Big XII, the reason that they didn't bring us in by June 30, instead of waiting an additional year, would be what exactly? It taking us makes them more money, why would they wait to see what Colorado would do (or for any other event)?

Because they'd rather announce the full expansion plan then pick up schools in pieces?