Non-Key Tweets

[brasssbonanzaa]

If ESPN and FOX are freaking out right now about paying more to add teams to a Big 12 that INCLUDES Texas and Oklahoma, how in god's name are the Little 8 going to get them to agree to a favorable restructured TV deal without the two biggest names in the conference?

It depends on your definition of favorable. Would it be identical to what they have now, no. Would it be favorable as compared to the conference blowing up in 2024 and the leftovers scrambling to throw something together in time for the coming season, yes. At least it affords them the opportunity to put together a group of schools, add some if need be, negotiate, see where the market is, and come to the best possible conclusion while not be under any immediate time pressure.

 

[NYUConn]

It depends on your definition of favorable. Would it be identical to what they have now, no. Would it be favorable as compared to the conference blowing up in 2024 and the leftovers scrambling to throw something together in time for the coming season, yes. At least it affords them the opportunity to put together a group of schools, add some if need be, negotiate, see where the market is, and come to the best possible conclusion while not be under any immediate time pressure.

Realistically, could the Little 8 get a deal any better than the current American or MWC? I'd bet anything that they couldn't from ESPN. When the Big East lost the core of it's football conference the second time - WVU/SU/Pitt/Lou - they dropped their TV deal about $100 million per year to what The American has today. I have to think they would do the same to the Big 12 after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.

The only thing that may save the Little 8 is the fact that their TV deal is spread out over ESPN and FOX. FOX needs content (tho less so after the B1G deal), so that haircut might not be as severe.

Ultimately you're right, it's all about giving the Little 8 time to figure out what's next. However, it's a pipe dream to presuppose that part of what figuring out what's next for the Little 8 includes restructuring the TV deal to any kind of P5 level.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Realistically, could the Little 8 get a deal any better than the current American or MWC? I'd bet anything that they couldn't from ESPN. When the Big East lost the core of it's football conference the second time - WVU/SU/Pitt/Lou - they dropped their TV deal about $100 million per year to what The American has today. I have to think they would do the same to the Big 12 after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.

The only thing that may save the Little 8 is the fact that their TV deal is spread out over ESPN and FOX. FOX needs content (tho less so after the B1G deal), so that haircut might not be as severe.

Ultimately you're right, it's all about giving the Little 8 time to figure out what's next. However, it's a pipe dream to presuppose that part of what figuring out what's next for the Little 8 includes restructuring the TV deal to any kind of P5 level.

I think so. The thing the Big 12 has always had going for it is that while they lack dominant powerhouse football programs outside of OU/Texas (when they actually are), they have a lot of mid-level programs that are almost all large state schools with respectable followings. Basically, they don't have any Wake Forests, BCs, or Washington States. Sure, a WVU-Kansas State game isn't going to be a ratings bonanza, but it'll be respectable. Not to mention KU basketball is a valuable commodity, and if those eight decided to tack on some additions, they could create a good, though not incredible, football conference that would still be P5 and could garner a decent TV deal, certainly larger than the AAC or MWC. All of the B12 schools are miles ahead of Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, ECU, and Temple in terms of program value to a TV network. Those five aren't even close.

 

[Jae-VT]

I think so. The thing the Big 12 has always had going for it is that while they lack dominant powerhouse football programs outside of OU/Texas (when they actually are), they have a lot of mid-level programs that are almost all large state schools with respectable followings. Basically, they don't have any Wake Forests, BCs, or Washington States. Sure, a WVU-Kansas State game isn't going to be a ratings bonanza, but it'll be respectable. Not to mention KU basketball is a valuable commodity, and if those eight decided to tack on some additions, they could create a good, though not incredible, football conference that would still be P5 and could garner a decent TV deal, certainly larger than the AAC or MWC. All of the B12 schools are miles ahead of Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, ECU, and Temple in terms of program value to a TV network. Those five aren't even close.

^Basically this. Also, this would be an opportunity to add inventory for a reduced rate than the current contract. Furthermore, what if the existential threat of OU and UT leaving gives the impetus for the "Orphaned" schools to accept BYU, Houston, UConn and Cincinnati? Like I said earlier, the idea of the orphaned school getting the current $30 million a year does not make sense, but say $8 - $15 million dollars, per school, per year may be possible. I would also imagine that ESPN and Fox would eliminate the pro rata clause.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Few things David Boren didn't know in 2011 1) BTN success 2) SECN existence and success 3) LHN albatross around B12 4) Future Steaming model

 

[CTMike]

Agree with the posts above - therefore, as mentioned by @frankthetank ... Wouldn't it be in those schools best interest to vote as a block for expansion by 4 ASAP, thereby maximizing revenue until a departure by OU/UT?

 

[whaler11]

What was flug wrong about? He's been remarkably consistent. Not saying he's been right about a bunch, but he hasn't been wrong either. Most of the stuff he's been saying has been long term thinking, not 100 predictions every day like a certain West Virginia blogger.

Remember flug nailed the Maryland-ACC settlement and timing in very specific terms, FYI. No one else had that.

I think Flug is legit. He doesn't flail wildly everyday with something new. He doesn't CYA with a second prediction after every limb he goes out on. He speaks like someone that doesn't pretend he's something he's not. He doesn't claim 100 different "sources." He doesn't fit the profile of someone making a bunch of crap up. I find him to be rather grounded for someone that allegedly "makes things up."

Flug has been right about one thing. Big 12 wrestling. Since then he has been wrong about everything.

He's even gone full Dood and said he wasn't going to share the intel from BIG TEN MAN anymore after his past debacles. That lasted about 48 hours.

He is consistent for sure. Consistently wrong.

 

[Exit 4]

Agree with the posts above - therefore, as mentioned by @frankthetank ... Wouldn't it be in those schools best interest to vote as a block for expansion by 4 ASAP, thereby maximizing revenue until a departure by OU/UT?

Seems like it and that still could be the final conclusion, but I think it may take a full year to get to that point. I suspect 3-5 months ago many of the L8 schools were oblivious to their reality (particularly beyond the ADs) and the conference has needed the drama of expansion to flush out all the politics and the cards held by OU, UT and the media players. Plus the ACCn and GOR extension changed everything - a seminal point in CRA history. In addition, the L8 needed to have the expansion school dog and pony show in order to get themselves all up to speed on their reality and the reality of what is available.

There is still a chance that all the effort that went into expansion this summer/fall will be utilized in the next year or two for a repositioned B12... a B12 future w/o UT and OU. The uncertainty of the cable box world puts some pressure on the L8 and even OU and UT to come up with a vision that binds as many of schools as possible through at least the length of the ACC GOR.

Lastly, the two reasons to expand by four now - FOX/ESPN $ and the opportunity to help make the expansion stronger for the 2025 media deal.

 

[SubbaBub]

I fail to see how people actually in the college sports business couldn't see UT/OU leaving the L8 out to dry once the expansion train started last year.

I do see the possibility of them making the incredibly dumb decision to add SMU, Rice, UTEP, and the South Texas School of Welding.

 

[kyleslamb]

Flug has been right about one thing. Big 12 wrestling. Since then he has been wrong about everything.

He's even gone full Dood and said he wasn't going to share the intel from BIG TEN MAN anymore after his past debacles. That lasted about 48 hours.

He is consistent for sure. Consistently wrong.

Would you be willing to show some examples of things he's said on Twitter that have proven to be wrong about? I'm curious because people say how much he's been wrong, but I honestly don't believe I've seen a seen any supporting examples.

 

[kyleslamb]

I fail to see how people actually in the college sports business couldn't see UT/OU leaving the L8 out to dry once the expansion train started last year.

I do see the possibility of them making the incredibly dumb decision to add SMU, Rice, UTEP, and the South Texas School of Welding.

The South Texas School of Welding is very strong in the southeastern one percent of the El Paso TV market.

 

[whaler11]

Would you be willing to show some examples of things he's said on Twitter that have proven to be wrong about? I'm curious because people say how much he's been wrong, but I honestly don't believe I've seen a seen any supporting examples.

Pay closer attention?

Arizona State hockey to the Big 10. Then he was actually playing two sides - one for the empire and one for BIG TEN MAN.

UConn and Cincinnati to the Big 12. Then no expansion.

After the Big 12 got their feelings hurt by the ACC network it was
UConn/Cincinnati/BYU/Houston to the Big 12. Then no expansion.

Literally everything since that one wrestling tidbit.

Then once everyone stopped thinking about expansion the last two days of nonsense with a 24 month window.

He's as full of crap as the Dood. He just freaks out less often and people here like that he is pro-UConn.

 

[whaler11]

I fail to see how people actually in the college sports business couldn't see UT/OU leaving the L8 out to dry once the expansion train started last year.

I do see the possibility of them
making the incredibly dumb decision to add SMU, Rice, UTEP, and the South Texas School of Welding.

You think that part of the story is a little implausible? That's probably only the second most ridiculous piece of his 2 day bender.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

It depends on your definition of favorable. Would it be identical to what they have now, no. Would it be favorable as compared to the conference blowing up in 2024 and the leftovers scrambling to throw something together in time for the coming season, yes. At least it affords them the opportunity to put together a group of schools, add some if need be, negotiate, see where the market is, and come to the best possible conclusion while not be under any immediate time pressure.

Basically, Iowa St, K State, TCU, Baylor, etc. saw what happened to the old Big E school like UConn who suddenly found themselves without a lifeboat when the conference sank. No university athletic director nor president wants to go through that. Plus, if the XII survivors can ban together, it likely give them enough cloudt to grab some of the best of the rest of the G5 versus being picked-off themselves. Its all about survival.

 

[kyleslamb]

Pay closer attention?

Arizona State hockey to the Big 10. Then he was actually playing two sides - one for the empire and one for BIG TEN MAN.

UConn and Cincinnati to the Big 12. Then no expansion.

After the Big 12 got their feelings hurt by the ACC network it was
UConn/Cincinnati/BYU/Houston to the Big 12. Then no expansion.

Literally everything since that one wrestling tidbit.

Then once everyone stopped thinking about expansion the last two days of nonsense with a 24 month window.

He's as full of crap as the Dood. He just freaks out less often and people here like that he is pro-UConn.

You're taking some of those things way out of context.

He wasn't playing both sides on the ASU thing. He said he was wrong about it. He said "BTM" said it wouldn't be the Big Ten before the announcement was made. He clarified his opinion was different.

Anyhow, he's never made a matter of fact proclamation about UConn and Cincinnati.

This is what people tend to do... they read something, even a generic statement, and equate it to a specific prediction. There haven't been many of those that have been wrong. Everyone misses on a few things. Especially someone that's got 20,000 tweets. However, I think you had it in your mind he was full of it, so you're looking for anything you can to discredit him.

 

[Jae-VT]

Agree with the posts above - therefore, as mentioned by @frankthetank ... Wouldn't it be in those schools best interest to vote as a block for expansion by 4 ASAP, thereby maximizing revenue until a departure by OU/UT?

If Flug is correct, then the answer to your question is that there are less than eight schools that will be looking for the controlled implosion plan to work. i.e. OU, UT, and ..... KU or OSU or (insert school X) will find landing spots in other power conferences. The information that Flug puts out there sounds reasonable, but I cannot say how reliable he is, only that what he reports sounds reasonable. At the very least, in order for Flug's reported theory to make sense, less than eight schools must realize by now that the Big 12 has a limited future.

 

[whaler11]

You're taking some of those things way out of context.

He wasn't playing both sides on the ASU thing. He said he was wrong about it. He said "BTM" said it wouldn't be the Big Ten before the announcement was made. He clarified his opinion was different.

Anyhow, he's never made a matter of fact proclamation about UConn and Cincinnati.

This is what people tend to do... they read something, even a generic statement, and equate it to a specific prediction. There haven't been many of those that have been wrong. Everyone misses on a few things. Especially someone that's got 20,000 tweets. However, I think you had it in your mind he was full of it, so you're looking for anything you can to discredit him.

I'm taking none of it out of context. He proclaimed these things dozens if not hundreds of times.

He proclaimed the Big 12 was expanding with UConn and Cincy. When they didn't he melted down and said he would no longer share anything from BIG TEN MAN.

After that lasted about 48 hours - when the Big 12 had their feelings hurt he proclaimed they were expanding by 4. BYU/UConn/Houston/Cincinnati.

When that didn't happen he dreamed up the last two days.

I know you faux insiders need to stick together but he said these things constantly and many of those tweets are copied right here in this and other threads. If you want to pretend BIG TEN MAN is real knock yourself out. I'm not your google monkey.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

If Flug is correct, then the answer to your question is that there are less than eight schools that will be looking for the controlled implosion plan to work. i.e. OU, UT, and ..... KU or OSU or (insert school X) will find landing spots in other power conferences. The information that Flug puts out there sounds reasonable, but I cannot say how reliable he is, only that what he reports sounds reasonable. At the very least, in order for Flug's reported theory to make sense, less than eight schools must realize by now that the Big 12 has a limited future.

KU should be 'safe' between their basketball image and AAU status, they would be attractive to the B1G and SEC as long as the state of Kansas is willing to potentially sacrifice K State to G5 status to save KU as a P4 school. OK is a wildcard as the state of Oklahoma may have to think about the same; but, with some credibility in football and basketball and a deep pocketed donor, I can see the SEC grabbing them with OU going to the B1G similar to who the SEC took 'risk' with TA&M to open the door to a new market as they could not get the big name in U Texas.

 

[JSM1970]

Maybe it's me, but I recall one of the big things with Manuel was he suposedly had great relations with the BCU AD and would build support with the next event.

The next event occurred and Manuel was "monitoring" while Jurich was dealing.

Amazing Manuel got the Michigan job. He's 9000 pounds or more by now, a total slob. Does he take credit for the UConn Women's hoops or Field Hockey Championships?

 

[The Funster]

Just search this thread for flug's tweets. A quick search found two tweets where "he" admitted he was wrong. He's made other suppositions that turned to be way off. To be fair, he has provided some well thought out and plausible scenarios that he has been consistent about. One of these is a "controlled implosion" of the Big 12 which he broached as early as May this year. Looking at his history though and how he has evolved its kind of obvious that BTM is a device created to lend credibility to his theories.

 

[CTMike]

Maybe it's me, but I recall one of the big things with Manuel was he suposedly had great relations with the BCU AD and would build support with the next event.

The next event occurred and Manuel was "monitoring" while Jurich was dealing.

Amazing Manuel got the Michigan job. He's 9000 pounds or more by now, a total slob. Does he take credit for the UConn Women's hoops or Field Hockey Championships?

Maybe it's me, but you're a .

 

[bobbyinaz]

You're taking some of those things way out of context.

He wasn't playing both sides on the ASU thing. He said he was wrong about it. He said "BTM" said it wouldn't be the Big Ten before the announcement was made. He clarified his opinion was different.

Anyhow, he's never made a matter of fact proclamation about UConn and Cincinnati.

This is what people tend to do... they read something, even a generic statement, and equate it to a specific prediction. There haven't been many of those that have been wrong. Everyone misses on a few things. Especially someone that's got 20,000 tweets. However, I think you had it in your mind he was full of it, so you're looking for anything you can to discredit him.

He absolutely played both sides on ASU. And his announcement was the same day that it was announced that ASU wasn't going to B1G.

He then followed it up with the announcement that he was done reporting what his "BTM" was telling him. That lasted for a couple days before his his psychosis kicked back in & the voices in his head told him to start blogging again.

Because he has been the only one of the CR blogger buffoons to say favorable things about UConn this board, desperate for any good news, grabbed onto him & anointed him as the CR guru. There was even a point where people were trying to say that he was sharing info from Burton in an effort to justify his nonsense.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Let's not confuse Flug's hockey information with his football information. He's been wrong on most things hockey related, CR and otherwise, in anything he tweets about, but he's never claimed to be much of a hockey fan despite being from Minnesota. College hockey exists in its own little world and people who are "insiders" there would in all likelihood not be insiders in much related to football and other CR issues.

 

[kyleslamb]

He absolutely played both sides on ASU. And his announcement was the same day that it was announced that ASU wasn't going to B1G.

He then followed it up with the announcement that he was done reporting what his "BTM" was telling him. That lasted for a couple days before his his psychosis kicked back in & the voices in his head told him to start blogging again.

Because he has been the only one of the CR blogger buffoons to say favorable things about UConn this board, desperate for any good news, grabbed onto him & anointed him as the CR guru. There was even a point where people were trying to say that he was sharing info from Burton in an effort to justify his nonsense.

Well I can't speak for this board or whether people are anointing him a 'guru' just because he's giving out optimistic news. But speaking for myself, since I don't have a dog in this fight, I'm looking at him objectively and I think he's legit. Has be been wrong before? Sure. Everyone has. Does he have an ego? Probably. I think everyone that has thousands and thousands of posts on Twitter probably has an ego. Do these things mean he doesn't have a credible source of information? No.

It's also possible that he does have the legitimate source he claims and that he's also exaggerated or conflated some things. It doesn't have to be either/or.

 

[whaler11]

Well I can't speak for this board or whether people are anointing him a 'guru' just because he's giving out optimistic news. But speaking for myself, since I don't have a dog in this fight, I'm looking at him objectively and I think he's legit. Has be been wrong before? Sure. Everyone has. Does he have an ego? Probably. I think everyone that has thousands and thousands of posts on Twitter probably has an ego. Do these things mean he doesn't have a credible source of information? No.

It's also possible that he does have the legitimate source he claims and that he's also exaggerated or conflated some things. It doesn't have to be either/or.

If twisting yourself into a pretzel to ignore facts when creating your worldview is your thing - you are in the right place.