Non-Key Tweets

[CoastAtlantic]

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire
Greg Flugaur Retweeted Greg Flugaur

https://mobile.twitter.com/flugempire/status/783763912432889856… These schools will act in accordance to their best long term interest & will secure it by playing their chip.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Greg Flugaur Retweeted Greg Flugaur

https://mobile.twitter.com/flugempire/status/783764274522959872… ..And their chip is in 2-3 years to release current members from current B12 GOR. BOA Best Outcome Available.

Brian Rice ‏@StudioBPR 2h2 hours ago
@flugempire ...still a step up from other G5s, maybe, esp with replacements, but a distinct drop off from remaining P4.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 2h2 hours ago
@StudioBPR vs... ....in 2024 doing what with "others" after OU leaves with possible partner..with UT leaving with possible partner?

BostonCoug ‏@BostonCoug 4h4 hours ago
@flugempire why would the networks agree to such a deal?

RedDirtSport ‏@RedDirtSport 4h4 hours ago
@BostonCoug @flugempire Still going to need inventory, market benefit of having to only pay X number of schools instead of larger Y in 25

BostonCoug ‏@BostonCoug 2h2 hours ago
@RedDirtSport @flugempire but the networks would be paying for a ferrari when they'd only be getting a honda civic. that makes no sense

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 2h2 hours ago
@BostonCoug @RedDirtSport They won't be paying for Ferrari.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Why did ESPN decided to invest in ACCN Vs Why ESPN & FOX took pass on B12N? Answer will lead you to the "why's" in OU + "few" leaving B12

Matthew Gaylor ‏@MatthewGaylor 1h1 hour ago
@flugempire @RedDirtSport Well, there are several issues with a Big 12N, like the lack of a footprint, lack of demand, who is in charge, etc

RedDirtSport ‏@RedDirtSport 1h1 hour ago
@MatthewGaylor @flugempire fundamental element is ESPN chose ACC to exist for east coast branding.. Dont care for flyover states

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
@RedDirtSport @MatthewGaylor All those answers are correct. OU has same corresponding issues with B12 future as an individual school.

Matthew Gaylor ‏@MatthewGaylor 1h1 hour ago
@RedDirtSport @flugempire That's true as well. There's little population besides TX, so why should they care?

RedDirtSport ‏@RedDirtSport 1h1 hour ago
@MatthewGaylor @flugempire Big 12 breaking apart allows biggest brands to go elsewhere, I do think eventually PAC12 becomes ESPN too

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
@RedDirtSport @MatthewGaylor I'm beginning to think this as well....PAC trades some equity in PACN to ESPN for greasing distribution skids

Bruce Harris ‏@JBruceHarris 21m21 minutes ago
@flugempire I agree. Been thinking this could be game plan to get out of GOR early for OU/UT. Side question: do you think OU/UT go together?

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 19m19 minutes ago
@JBruceHarris I don't think so.

 

[SubbaBub]

None of this makes any sense. The Leftover 8 have no options. Texas can only stay in the B12, move to the ACC, or go independent.

This talk of a NEW B12 includes which schools? None from the SEC. If Texas is starting its own conference without OU, who would they get? All the Texas schools not named A&M, big whoop. Nebraska isn't joining that mess, neither FSU nor Clemson is joining that mess, none of the P12. So it's the B12 + P5 schools? Hasn't that failed already multiple times? Where are these schools outside the L8 coming from, Mexico?

As for the a relief plan, where are they going?

UT - ACC
OU - B1G, SEC
KU - B1G (maybe)
OSU - SEC (maybe, if OU goes B1G)
KSU - nope
TTU - nope
Baylor - double nope
TCU - nope
ISU - nope
WVU - nope

So the leftover 6/7/8 are going to do what? Invite 4 - 6 teams G5 teams with zero leverage. ( how much leverage did the AAC have in selection of teams, the share of the network contract? Less than zero, UConn, Cincy, and USF had to reach into their own pockets of settlement money to share with these new programs.

So unless any relief plan is to expand and simultaneously negotiate a new GOR/CFP Bowl contract, and a new media contract, then there is no relief plan. How is that any different than simply expanding by 4 teams now, keeping UT and OU in the fold. Wouldn't ESPN/Fox prefer that to having a 5th wheel P5 conference? Are the L8 that gullible?

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's all hokey nonsense. We may or may not hear anything on October 17th.

 

[kyleslamb]

Flug makes a lot more sense than Dude. A ton more. Infinitely more. Flug's point is trying to preserve a future beyond 2024, which they would otherwise not have if there isn't some agreement made with all schools and the media partners. Plus, no matter how The Dude spins it, there's still the outside possibility that if Texas and Oklahoma both bolted, along with Oklahoma State and Kansas, they could attempt to attack the Grant of Rights and if the Big 12 eventually lost in court, they'd be screwed enormously because they'd have to repay rights for two or three seasons in arrears that may have otherwise been spent.

The Dude doesn't want to admit as a WVU fan that his conference is on its death bed, at least as a power league. Anything that could preserve some semblance of power and financial stability for these schools beyond the inevitable departures makes sense to anyone thinking clearly, rationally and without emotion.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

The scary thing is that the West Virginia nitwit is making more sense today than the Minnesota nitwit.

But the Big 12 isn't playing chess. They're playing checkers and playing it poorly.

The one thing Flug is right on though is the Dude has hit the moonshine again if he still thinks that after all of this that the XII is still stronger than the ACC. If it happens in 2 years as Flug suggests or 6/7 years when the GOR expires, the XII is walking the Green Mile. The Super 4 will be the ACC, B1G, SEC, and PAC. The question for UConn, WVU and others is if they will make rooom for some XII and other top G5 programs or is this it.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Wow, the B12 blinders are mighty thick. Schools are running in the other direction.

No university president is going to willingly leave the B1G for any conference due to the money and prestige offered by the B1G on the athletics fields and in the classroom. This qualifies as a 'pants on fire' rating.

 

[don356]

Whoever that Tim Montemayor is bought that Nebraska hoax hook, line and sinker. You have to be a real idiot to believe Nebraska would leave the b10 at this point for all the money in Texas. That idiot can't see the forest thru the trees.

 

[Jae-VT]

I call BS on Flug. His speculation is interesting to read but that is all it ever is: speculation. No way the networks let the 3 (or more) best Big 12 properties walk AND give the remaining squads a bona fide TV deal. Who's going to go where? Texas isn't going to the B1G or PAC. Where is OU going and with whom? KU may be of interest to the B1G but who is their partner? WVU to the ACC? No way.

Me? I think the lesser Big 12 schools aren't going to OK expansion until they get assurances from UT and OU and UT and OU won't give any.

I don't quite know what to make of Flug or his hypothesis, but I do believe the logic of his are the following:

• OU and UT will be free agents by 2024/2025 when the current TV contract runs out.
• Big 12 tried to squeeze more money from ESPN and FOX through the threat of adding non-P5 schools into the Big 12 through the pro rata clause in the current contract. ESPN and Big 12 balked and called Big 12 bluff. Currently it looks like the bluff failed since multiple news outlets are now writing articles about how Big 12 expansion will not happening.
• The Big 12 schools not named OU, UT now know that OU and UT will leave the Big 12. These schools now realize that they must do something to retain as much money as possible for the eventual loss of UT and OU from Big 12.
• So the "Orphaned" schools are going to band together and bargain with OU and UT with the following proposal: We let you out of the GOR much sooner than 2024/2025, but OU and UT must use their influences with ESPN and FOX to secure a new TV contract for the "Orphaned" schools.

My personal speculation is that the new tv contract will not retain the pro rata clause, nor will it pay out as much as the current Big-12 contract. But the orphaned schools might be able to retain the rights to the Sugar Bowl and "P5" status, even though it will then be a "P4" world. If I had to guess, and I am not an expert at all, the new TV contract will start at $20 million per school per year as a starting point and probably end-up around $8 - $12 million per school per year for the new "Big 12" conference. I believe the Big 12 saw what happened to the Big East Schools and are trying to avoid that fate given their current situation.

 

[temery]

 

[amory]

Shocking that when everyone finally realized this thing is dead Flug has a 50 storm that puts a 24 month timeline on things.

Well received because it's what some people want to hear - ignoring of course he doesn't actually get anything right.

That's exactly what it is. Guy knows no more than any of us.

No surprise that he's kicking the can down the road now that his scenario didn't come together.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Flug makes a lot more sense than Dude. A ton more. Infinitely more. Flug's point is trying to preserve a future beyond 2024, which they would otherwise not have if there isn't some agreement made with all schools and the media partners. Plus, no matter how The Dude spins it, there's still the outside possibility that if Texas and Oklahoma both bolted, along with Oklahoma State and Kansas, they could attempt to attack the Grant of Rights and if the Big 12 eventually lost in court, they'd be screwed enormously because they'd have to repay rights for two or three seasons in arrears that may have otherwise been spent.

The Dude doesn't want to admit as a WVU fan that his conference is on its death bed, at least as a power league. Anything that could preserve some semblance of power and financial stability for these schools beyond the inevitable departures makes sense to anyone thinking clearly, rationally and without emotion.

I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.

• All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
• Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
• Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
• As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.

If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.

 

[CTMike]

This all feels like a giant head fake.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.

• All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
• Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
• Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
• As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.

If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.

no conference has a guaranteed playoff spot. Big 12 like other P5 conferences has a guaranteed bowl tie-in for NY6 bowls (Sugar Bowl)... And they have voting power aligned with P5.

As this plays out, the playoff series and how the p5 schools are defined is going to guide what happens. One of the biggest issues the AAC has with the current structure is that it doesn't allow for conferences to play into that P5 status. Does the current P5 structure allow for teams/conferences to be relegated to G5 status? If that happens, what happens to the voting? Do the G5 have enough schools to veto the P5?

 

[upstater]

I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.

• All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
• Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
• Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
• As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.

If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.

Why would anyone sign a GOR?

And what purpose would it serve?

Exit fees, yes. But no GOR. Not needed, or wanted at that point. Everyone equally will want a way out.

The left-behinds will be a little better off than the AAC teams, or on equal footing with UConn, Cincy, Houston.

 

[jostar1]

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
Let's be blunt.
OU is gone to 1 of their multiple suitors in 2024.
When that happens (w-out no deal=Relief Plan) "others" get left behind.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
So do you expect "others" B12 Presidents to sit and do nothing?...all the way up and past 2024?
Expansion won't get GOR extension

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
The reason why B12 expansion won't get GOR extension is because OU & UT have 2 very different vision of their particular futures.

Jason Sallans ‏@jasonincbus · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire One question.In this scenario where OU & UT leave, what do Networks get out of this? Why would they continue to pay beyond 2024?

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Uncontrolled implosion in 2024? Networks do very little to nothing for "others"
There will be no incentive to do so..
1/2

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Controlled implosion 2019?
Networks will give something to"others" for return of elevating BTN & ESPN assets earlier than 24

Steve Bullard ‏@stevebullard · 3h3 hours ago  Jenks, OK
@flugempire
according to what you said yesterday, sounded like GOR could be released and Ou’s exit could be earlier. Is that possible?

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire
@stevebullard
Only if the "others" agree to release of GOR earlier than 2024.
Yes, we have reasons to believe it's possible

 

[bobbyinaz]

I don't know what's crazier.

These idiot bloggers spending all the time & effort to actually post the nonsense they do or the people who respond to them and ask questions about the next steps in the process.

 

[don356]

I don't know what's crazier.

These idiot bloggers spending all the time & effort to actually post the nonsense they do or the people who respond to them and ask questions about the next steps in the process.

I used to think this as well, but at this point i think the guys asking the questions are the same person.

 

[jho]

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Controlled implosion 2019?
Networks will give something to"others" for return of elevating BTN & ESPN assets earlier than 24

Controlled implosion. What possibly could go wrong?

 

[jlarson]

So, Flug was wrong again and what a surprise...a new story to tell.

When are people going to learn that this guy has no source and just makes things up?

 

[kyleslamb]

What was flug wrong about? He's been remarkably consistent. Not saying he's been right about a bunch, but he hasn't been wrong either. Most of the stuff he's been saying has been long term thinking, not 100 predictions every day like a certain West Virginia blogger.

Remember flug nailed the Maryland-ACC settlement and timing in very specific terms, FYI. No one else had that.

I think Flug is legit. He doesn't flail wildly everyday with something new. He doesn't CYA with a second prediction after every limb he goes out on. He speaks like someone that doesn't pretend he's something he's not. He doesn't claim 100 different "sources." He doesn't fit the profile of someone making a bunch of crap up. I find him to be rather grounded for someone that allegedly "makes things up."

 

[jostar1]

Doug ‏@NebGradDubDub · 2h2 hours ago
@Manny_Insanity @Ourand_SBJ @Expansion_Crush
Little 8 have now realized they can't recruit or expand facilities without a new GOR....

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire
@NebGradDubDub @Manny_Insanity @Ourand_SBJ @Expansion_Crush
One of many incentives why "others" will reach for "relief plan" in 24 months.

Shawn Eichorst‏@BigRedAD
Proud & privileged to be member of the Big Ten-the oldest & best power 5 athletic conference. Excellence = academics, athletics & life. GBR!

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 1h1 hour ago
And now it's time for OU's AD to make similar Twitter statement about Sooners future with B12 Conference?
Hello?

 

[CallMeBruce]

What was flug wrong about? He's been remarkably consistent. Not saying he's been right about a bunch, but he hasn't been wrong either. Most of the stuff he's been saying has been long term thinking, not 100 predictions every day like a certain West Virginia blogger.

Remember flug nailed the Maryland-ACC settlement and timing in very specific terms, FYI. No one else had that.

I think Flug is legit. He doesn't flail wildly everyday with something new. He doesn't CYA with a second prediction after every limb he goes out on. He speaks like someone that doesn't pretend he's something he's not. He doesn't claim 100 different "sources." He doesn't fit the profile of someone making a bunch of crap up. I find him to be rather grounded for someone that allegedly "makes things up."

He also was the first one to peg Memphis as a no-go when a lot of outlets thought they would be a major contender, and he was one of the only guys to think UConn was a serious contender, which they appear to have been. He didn't predict the controversy with BYU, nor the governor's support of Houston, but he did say there was no way you were going to see two schools added if one was Houston.

 

[kyleslamb]

He also was the first one to peg Memphis as a no-go when a lot of outlets thought they would be a major contender, and he was one of the only guys to think UConn was a serious contender, which they appear to have been. He didn't predict the controversy with BYU, nor the governor's support of Houston, but he did say there was no way you were going to see two schools added if one was Houston.

Yep. He seems pretty grounded. I know anyone can come online and claim anything they want, and more times than not, they're full of it. But I don't see why anyone would find what he says to be outrageous. He doesn't change his predictions/opinions with the weather and doesn't act like he has hundreds of sources. Having spent five years covering athletics for a living and knowing athletic department folks pretty well, he strikes me as someone who actually does know a person or two.

I'm not plugged in with anyone that I'm getting daily updates on conference realignment, but I can say from my own relationships that at least some of what he's said I've heard in my own conversations. The Big Ten has definitely been doing recon on Oklahoma, Kansas and a handful of other teams even since the Big 12 GOR. On a side note, UConn has still been on that list too.

 

[NYUConn]

Here's the thing that's bugging me about the concept of a controlled implosion and relief plan for the Little 8 in terms of a renegotiated TV deal:

If ESPN and FOX are freaking out right now about paying more to add teams to a Big 12 that INCLUDES Texas and Oklahoma, how in god's name are the Little 8 going to get them to agree to a favorable restructured TV deal without the two biggest names in the conference?

Sure, in theory it makes sense that OU and TX giving the Big 12 and networks sufficient notice that they are gone in 2024 is advantageous to the Little 8 in the sense that it provides them with enough time to chart a course for what's next, but the idea that the Little 8 will get anything close to what they have now from the networks is ludicrous.

If the networks don't want to spend more now to build a stronger conference, they sure as hell aren't going to be motivated to spend a penny less than they need to on a weakened conference.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

The thing with Flug is he's not reporting what are stone cold precise predictions of what exactly will happen. His information is indeed more speculative and he qualifies the info with it being the preceptions of connected people. I've always felt he is the best of the Twitterati because he sticks with his info unless there's an actual major shift in the public news. He doesn't fall for the supposed head fakes, or daily "changes" in the news. Also, his information almost always makes logical sense. Where Dude and others throw out a lot of asinine theories and predictions that are difficult to piece together, Flug's generally at least pass the smell test. Reading his info, you can easily think, "Yeah, I could see that happening, it makes sense." Whether he has real connections, I don't know. My guess is he knows a guy in the Minnesota athletic department who has some info. This person could have this OU contact he talks about, who knows. His word certainly isn't gospel, but it's at least worth reading if you want a general sense of the tea leaves. I do not believe he makes it up out of thin air to get a rise out of Twitter followes, where Dude, Mhv, and a few of the others I do believe do so.