Non-Key Tweets | Page 703 | The Boneyard

Non-Key Tweets

Whoever that Tim Montemayor is bought that Nebraska hoax hook, line and sinker. You have to be a real idiot to believe Nebraska would leave the b10 at this point for all the money in Texas. That idiot can't see the forest thru the trees.
 
The Funster said:
I call BS on Flug. His speculation is interesting to read but that is all it ever is: speculation. No way the networks let the 3 (or more) best Big 12 properties walk AND give the remaining squads a bona fide TV deal. Who's going to go where? Texas isn't going to the B1G or PAC. Where is OU going and with whom? KU may be of interest to the B1G but who is their partner? WVU to the ACC? No way.

Me? I think the lesser Big 12 schools aren't going to OK expansion until they get assurances from UT and OU and UT and OU won't give any.
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I don't quite know what to make of Flug or his hypothesis, but I do believe the logic of his are the following:
  • OU and UT will be free agents by 2024/2025 when the current TV contract runs out.
  • Big 12 tried to squeeze more money from ESPN and FOX through the threat of adding non-P5 schools into the Big 12 through the pro rata clause in the current contract. ESPN and Big 12 balked and called Big 12 bluff. Currently it looks like the bluff failed since multiple news outlets are now writing articles about how Big 12 expansion will not happening.
  • The Big 12 schools not named OU, UT now know that OU and UT will leave the Big 12. These schools now realize that they must do something to retain as much money as possible for the eventual loss of UT and OU from Big 12.
  • So the "Orphaned" schools are going to band together and bargain with OU and UT with the following proposal: We let you out of the GOR much sooner than 2024/2025, but OU and UT must use their influences with ESPN and FOX to secure a new TV contract for the "Orphaned" schools.
My personal speculation is that the new tv contract will not retain the pro rata clause, nor will it pay out as much as the current Big-12 contract. But the orphaned schools might be able to retain the rights to the Sugar Bowl and "P5" status, even though it will then be a "P4" world. If I had to guess, and I am not an expert at all, the new TV contract will start at $20 million per school per year as a starting point and probably end-up around $8 - $12 million per school per year for the new "Big 12" conference. I believe the Big 12 saw what happened to the Big East Schools and are trying to avoid that fate given their current situation.
 
whaler11 said:
Shocking that when everyone finally realized this thing is dead Flug has a 50 storm that puts a 24 month timeline on things.

Well received because it's what some people want to hear - ignoring of course he doesn't actually get anything right.
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That's exactly what it is. Guy knows no more than any of us.

No surprise that he's kicking the can down the road now that his scenario didn't come together.
 
kyleslamb said:
Flug makes a lot more sense than Dude. A ton more. Infinitely more. Flug's point is trying to preserve a future beyond 2024, which they would otherwise not have if there isn't some agreement made with all schools and the media partners. Plus, no matter how The Dude spins it, there's still the outside possibility that if Texas and Oklahoma both bolted, along with Oklahoma State and Kansas, they could attempt to attack the Grant of Rights and if the Big 12 eventually lost in court, they'd be screwed enormously because they'd have to repay rights for two or three seasons in arrears that may have otherwise been spent.

The Dude doesn't want to admit as a WVU fan that his conference is on its death bed, at least as a power league. Anything that could preserve some semblance of power and financial stability for these schools beyond the inevitable departures makes sense to anyone thinking clearly, rationally and without emotion.
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I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.
  • All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
  • Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
  • Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
  • As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.
If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.
  • All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
  • Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
  • Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
  • As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.
If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.
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no conference has a guaranteed playoff spot. Big 12 like other P5 conferences has a guaranteed bowl tie-in for NY6 bowls (Sugar Bowl)... And they have voting power aligned with P5.

As this plays out, the playoff series and how the p5 schools are defined is going to guide what happens. One of the biggest issues the AAC has with the current structure is that it doesn't allow for conferences to play into that P5 status. Does the current P5 structure allow for teams/conferences to be relegated to G5 status? If that happens, what happens to the voting? Do the G5 have enough schools to veto the P5?
 
HuskyHawk said:
I don't know about the details or how he is explaining them. Much can be lost in translation. But the takeaway I find worthwhile, and possibly based on some real info, is that the 7 schools who likely have a difficult landing spot if the Big XII fails, have woken up to that reality. It's what the Dude doesn't want to admit.

What form does that take? Where does it lead? I doubt that Flug's contact has those details or has communicated them clearly enough to him. The picture he paints has some gaps in it. But I could see something like this.
  • All schools can negotiate with P5. Big XII lets OU, UT, KU and anyone else who has a spot go.
  • Whoever is left works with ESPN and Fox to choose expansion/backfill candidates.
  • Once the new members are chosen, a new contract is put in place with a GOR to 2035.
  • As for P5 status, well monetarily they's be P5. Would they keep a playoff slot? That can't be decided by TV people, but if they keep the name it don't think it can be taken away until the current P5 deal expires.
If any of that happens, I wouldn't assume that UT goes anywhere. I think part of the reason they'd do this is to give these schools a reality check. Including UT if it thinks it can keep the LHN.
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Why would anyone sign a GOR?

And what purpose would it serve?

Exit fees, yes. But no GOR. Not needed, or wanted at that point. Everyone equally will want a way out.

The left-behinds will be a little better off than the AAC teams, or on equal footing with UConn, Cincy, Houston.
 
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
Let's be blunt.
OU is gone to 1 of their multiple suitors in 2024.
When that happens (w-out no deal=Relief Plan) "others" get left behind.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
So do you expect "others" B12 Presidents to sit and do nothing?...all the way up and past 2024?
Expansion won't get GOR extension

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
The reason why B12 expansion won't get GOR extension is because OU & UT have 2 very different vision of their particular futures.

Jason Sallans ‏@jasonincbus · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire One question.In this scenario where OU & UT leave, what do Networks get out of this? Why would they continue to pay beyond 2024?

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Uncontrolled implosion in 2024? Networks do very little to nothing for "others"
There will be no incentive to do so..
1/2

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Controlled implosion 2019?
Networks will give something to"others" for return of elevating BTN & ESPN assets earlier than 24

Steve Bullard ‏@stevebullard · 3h3 hours ago  Jenks, OK
@flugempire
according to what you said yesterday, sounded like GOR could be released and Ou’s exit could be earlier. Is that possible?

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire
@stevebullard
Only if the "others" agree to release of GOR earlier than 2024.
Yes, we have reasons to believe it's possible
 
bobbyinaz said:
I don't know what's crazier.

These idiot bloggers spending all the time & effort to actually post the nonsense they do or the people who respond to them and ask questions about the next steps in the process.
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I used to think this as well, but at this point i think the guys asking the questions are the same person.
 
jostar1 said:
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@jasonincbus
Controlled implosion 2019?
Networks will give something to"others" for return of elevating BTN & ESPN assets earlier than 24
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Controlled implosion. What possibly could go wrong?
 
So, Flug was wrong again and what a surprise...a new story to tell.

When are people going to learn that this guy has no source and just makes things up?
 
What was flug wrong about? He's been remarkably consistent. Not saying he's been right about a bunch, but he hasn't been wrong either. Most of the stuff he's been saying has been long term thinking, not 100 predictions every day like a certain West Virginia blogger.

Remember flug nailed the Maryland-ACC settlement and timing in very specific terms, FYI. No one else had that.

I think Flug is legit. He doesn't flail wildly everyday with something new. He doesn't CYA with a second prediction after every limb he goes out on. He speaks like someone that doesn't pretend he's something he's not. He doesn't claim 100 different "sources." He doesn't fit the profile of someone making a bunch of crap up. I find him to be rather grounded for someone that allegedly "makes things up."
 
Doug ‏@NebGradDubDub · 2h2 hours ago
@Manny_Insanity @Ourand_SBJ @Expansion_Crush
Little 8 have now realized they can't recruit or expand facilities without a new GOR....

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire
@NebGradDubDub @Manny_Insanity @Ourand_SBJ @Expansion_Crush
One of many incentives why "others" will reach for "relief plan" in 24 months.

Shawn Eichorst‏@BigRedAD
Proud & privileged to be member of the Big Ten-the oldest & best power 5 athletic conference. Excellence = academics, athletics & life. GBR!

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 1h1 hour ago
And now it's time for OU's AD to make similar Twitter statement about Sooners future with B12 Conference?
Hello?
 
kyleslamb said:
What was flug wrong about? He's been remarkably consistent. Not saying he's been right about a bunch, but he hasn't been wrong either. Most of the stuff he's been saying has been long term thinking, not 100 predictions every day like a certain West Virginia blogger.

Remember flug nailed the Maryland-ACC settlement and timing in very specific terms, FYI. No one else had that.

I think Flug is legit. He doesn't flail wildly everyday with something new. He doesn't CYA with a second prediction after every limb he goes out on. He speaks like someone that doesn't pretend he's something he's not. He doesn't claim 100 different "sources." He doesn't fit the profile of someone making a bunch of crap up. I find him to be rather grounded for someone that allegedly "makes things up."
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He also was the first one to peg Memphis as a no-go when a lot of outlets thought they would be a major contender, and he was one of the only guys to think UConn was a serious contender, which they appear to have been. He didn't predict the controversy with BYU, nor the governor's support of Houston, but he did say there was no way you were going to see two schools added if one was Houston.
 
CallMeBruce said:
He also was the first one to peg Memphis as a no-go when a lot of outlets thought they would be a major contender, and he was one of the only guys to think UConn was a serious contender, which they appear to have been. He didn't predict the controversy with BYU, nor the governor's support of Houston, but he did say there was no way you were going to see two schools added if one was Houston.
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Yep. He seems pretty grounded. I know anyone can come online and claim anything they want, and more times than not, they're full of it. But I don't see why anyone would find what he says to be outrageous. He doesn't change his predictions/opinions with the weather and doesn't act like he has hundreds of sources. Having spent five years covering athletics for a living and knowing athletic department folks pretty well, he strikes me as someone who actually does know a person or two.

I'm not plugged in with anyone that I'm getting daily updates on conference realignment, but I can say from my own relationships that at least some of what he's said I've heard in my own conversations. The Big Ten has definitely been doing recon on Oklahoma, Kansas and a handful of other teams even since the Big 12 GOR. On a side note, UConn has still been on that list too.
 
Here's the thing that's bugging me about the concept of a controlled implosion and relief plan for the Little 8 in terms of a renegotiated TV deal:

If ESPN and FOX are freaking out right now about paying more to add teams to a Big 12 that INCLUDES Texas and Oklahoma, how in god's name are the Little 8 going to get them to agree to a favorable restructured TV deal without the two biggest names in the conference?

Sure, in theory it makes sense that OU and TX giving the Big 12 and networks sufficient notice that they are gone in 2024 is advantageous to the Little 8 in the sense that it provides them with enough time to chart a course for what's next, but the idea that the Little 8 will get anything close to what they have now from the networks is ludicrous.

If the networks don't want to spend more now to build a stronger conference, they sure as hell aren't going to be motivated to spend a penny less than they need to on a weakened conference.
 
The thing with Flug is he's not reporting what are stone cold precise predictions of what exactly will happen. His information is indeed more speculative and he qualifies the info with it being the preceptions of connected people. I've always felt he is the best of the Twitterati because he sticks with his info unless there's an actual major shift in the public news. He doesn't fall for the supposed head fakes, or daily "changes" in the news. Also, his information almost always makes logical sense. Where Dude and others throw out a lot of asinine theories and predictions that are difficult to piece together, Flug's generally at least pass the smell test. Reading his info, you can easily think, "Yeah, I could see that happening, it makes sense." Whether he has real connections, I don't know. My guess is he knows a guy in the Minnesota athletic department who has some info. This person could have this OU contact he talks about, who knows. His word certainly isn't gospel, but it's at least worth reading if you want a general sense of the tea leaves. I do not believe he makes it up out of thin air to get a rise out of Twitter followes, where Dude, Mhv, and a few of the others I do believe do so.
 
NYUConn said:
If ESPN and FOX are freaking out right now about paying more to add teams to a Big 12 that INCLUDES Texas and Oklahoma, how in god's name are the Little 8 going to get them to agree to a favorable restructured TV deal without the two biggest names in the conference?
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It depends on your definition of favorable. Would it be identical to what they have now, no. Would it be favorable as compared to the conference blowing up in 2024 and the leftovers scrambling to throw something together in time for the coming season, yes. At least it affords them the opportunity to put together a group of schools, add some if need be, negotiate, see where the market is, and come to the best possible conclusion while not be under any immediate time pressure.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
It depends on your definition of favorable. Would it be identical to what they have now, no. Would it be favorable as compared to the conference blowing up in 2024 and the leftovers scrambling to throw something together in time for the coming season, yes. At least it affords them the opportunity to put together a group of schools, add some if need be, negotiate, see where the market is, and come to the best possible conclusion while not be under any immediate time pressure.
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Realistically, could the Little 8 get a deal any better than the current American or MWC? I'd bet anything that they couldn't from ESPN. When the Big East lost the core of it's football conference the second time - WVU/SU/Pitt/Lou - they dropped their TV deal about $100 million per year to what The American has today. I have to think they would do the same to the Big 12 after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.

The only thing that may save the Little 8 is the fact that their TV deal is spread out over ESPN and FOX. FOX needs content (tho less so after the B1G deal), so that haircut might not be as severe.

Ultimately you're right, it's all about giving the Little 8 time to figure out what's next. However, it's a pipe dream to presuppose that part of what figuring out what's next for the Little 8 includes restructuring the TV deal to any kind of P5 level.
 
NYUConn said:
Realistically, could the Little 8 get a deal any better than the current American or MWC? I'd bet anything that they couldn't from ESPN. When the Big East lost the core of it's football conference the second time - WVU/SU/Pitt/Lou - they dropped their TV deal about $100 million per year to what The American has today. I have to think they would do the same to the Big 12 after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.

The only thing that may save the Little 8 is the fact that their TV deal is spread out over ESPN and FOX. FOX needs content (tho less so after the B1G deal), so that haircut might not be as severe.

Ultimately you're right, it's all about giving the Little 8 time to figure out what's next. However, it's a pipe dream to presuppose that part of what figuring out what's next for the Little 8 includes restructuring the TV deal to any kind of P5 level.
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I think so. The thing the Big 12 has always had going for it is that while they lack dominant powerhouse football programs outside of OU/Texas (when they actually are), they have a lot of mid-level programs that are almost all large state schools with respectable followings. Basically, they don't have any Wake Forests, BCs, or Washington States. Sure, a WVU-Kansas State game isn't going to be a ratings bonanza, but it'll be respectable. Not to mention KU basketball is a valuable commodity, and if those eight decided to tack on some additions, they could create a good, though not incredible, football conference that would still be P5 and could garner a decent TV deal, certainly larger than the AAC or MWC. All of the B12 schools are miles ahead of Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, ECU, and Temple in terms of program value to a TV network. Those five aren't even close.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
I think so. The thing the Big 12 has always had going for it is that while they lack dominant powerhouse football programs outside of OU/Texas (when they actually are), they have a lot of mid-level programs that are almost all large state schools with respectable followings. Basically, they don't have any Wake Forests, BCs, or Washington States. Sure, a WVU-Kansas State game isn't going to be a ratings bonanza, but it'll be respectable. Not to mention KU basketball is a valuable commodity, and if those eight decided to tack on some additions, they could create a good, though not incredible, football conference that would still be P5 and could garner a decent TV deal, certainly larger than the AAC or MWC. All of the B12 schools are miles ahead of Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, ECU, and Temple in terms of program value to a TV network. Those five aren't even close.
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^Basically this. Also, this would be an opportunity to add inventory for a reduced rate than the current contract. Furthermore, what if the existential threat of OU and UT leaving gives the impetus for the "Orphaned" schools to accept BYU, Houston, UConn and Cincinnati? Like I said earlier, the idea of the orphaned school getting the current $30 million a year does not make sense, but say $8 - $15 million dollars, per school, per year may be possible. I would also imagine that ESPN and Fox would eliminate the pro rata clause.
 

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