My suspicion is that nothing has been decided yet, because McMurphy would be the first to know if it had. I think there are probably 6 finalists, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UConn, Memphis, and UCF, for 4 spots. BYU and Cincinnati are ahead of the other 4, but not home yet. There are a lot of reasons not to believe the "Fred Smith will donate $500 million" stories, most important of which is, if Smith had so much money to pour into Memphis, why hasn't he done it? Memphis is in the heart of SEC country and will never get market share. I can't come up with a single advantage that has over UConn, other than Smith, which I don't believe anyway.I don't think ESPN wants to dig deeper in a Florida market where it already has 3 programs, so while UCF is on the list, I don't see it getting picked.
I think it is BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UConn. I am also skeptical about staggering the AAC members, since the whole purpose of this expansion is a money grab by the Big 12. I think the Big 12 will help BYU out with breaking some of the 2017 game contracts, including substituting Big 12 teams for BYU in the contract.