No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[RuffRuff]

I guess we'll see, but that's an additional 2 Quad 1 wins, with the third game (presumably Nova) just outside of that. Again, it won't be for any love of UConn, but rather, a protection of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds if possible...

Do we really think the committee is going to be focused on protecting the 1 and 2 seeds as if we are some bubbling juggernaut ready to ruin brackets and seed us because of that? Cmon. They don’t care about that. They will seed appropriately according to resumes.

 

[Excalibur]

Lunardi, DeCourcy, and Palm all have us as an 8. But I think that if we win our first game in the BET, we're a 7.

The reason I think that is not because I think the committee likes UConn (quite the opposite, actually). The reason is because they'll want to protect a #1 seed from that matchup prior to making the Sweet 16...

I think we need to win 2 to think about a 7.

 

[Excalibur]

I understand that. What I'm saying is that 1-1 will get us on the 7-line. If we win the tournament, I expect a 6 seed, with an outside chance at a 5 seed...

Not a chance.

 

[KemGiffeyJr]

I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there

 

[navery12]

I guess we'll see, but that's an additional 2 Quad 1 wins, with the third game (presumably Nova) just outside of that. Again, it won't be for any love of UConn, but rather, a protection of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds if possible...

I think the missing piece in that analysis is that we're chasing other P5 teams who are also presumably getting additional Q1 wins.

The only way I see us getting above the 7 line is if we're surrounded by a bunch of SEC/B10 teams and they need to shift teams off the S-Curve to avoid repeat matchups

 

[UConnDan97]

Do we really think the committee is going to be focused on protecting the 1 and 2 seeds as if we are some bubbling juggernaut ready to ruin brackets and seed us because of that? Cmon. They don’t care about that. They will seed appropriately according to resumes.

I'm not making the argument on reputation. I'm making it on a 25-9 record with a 7-5 quad 1 / 8-3 quad 2 record. But again, we'll see what happens with the committee. First thing is first: we've gotta win the games...

 

[ctbro1999]

I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there

Every bracket the past 2 weeks I've seen has had us in Raleigh as the 8 or 9 seed opposite Duke, including The Athletic's most recent bracket this morning. It seems like we'll need to win the BET just to avoid a potential Duke matchup in the 2nd round.

 

[RuffRuff]

Every bracket the past 2 weeks I've seen has had us in Raleigh as the 8 or 9 seed opposite Duke, including The Athletic's most recent bracket this morning. It seems like we'll need to win the BET just to avoid a potential Duke matchup in the 2nd round.

Would love to avoid that but would be good theater if it did happen. We still have to beat a 9 seed to get there, which is by no means a slam dunk with this team.

As has been mentioned, still one game at a time. Let’s see what this team is made of this week. Would love to see a hungry Xavier team knock off StJ in the quarters!

 

[UConnDan97]

I think the missing piece in that analysis is that we're chasing other P5 teams who are also presumably getting additional Q1 wins.

The only way I see us getting above the 7 line is if we're surrounded by a bunch of SEC/B10 teams and they need to shift teams off the S-Curve to avoid repeat matchups

Correct. And that's exactly who we're surrounded by in the NET on our way to #24 (the final 6-seed). Three B1G teams (Michigan, UCLA, Oregon), two SEC teams (Georgia, Ole Miss), and just directly above us is a Baylor team that we beat head-to-head. Additionally, one of the teams above us is Marquette, who would necessarily take a loss earlier than us if we win the conference tourney.

That's my math. Let's see how it plays out...

 

[Alum86]

I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there

You’re not. The committee will love that potential matchup with a Duke advantage more than protecting a 1 seed from a potentially killer round of 32 game.

 

[Chuck]

SJU and Xavier would play in the semis.

As has been mentioned, still one game at a time. Let’s see what this team is made of this week. Would love to see a hungry Xavier team knock off StJ in the quarters!

 

[ctbro1999]

Speaking of 8/9 games, this year's Gonzaga team has to be the most bizarre as far as computer metrics vs projected seeding I've ever seen. They've pretty much been 8th or 9th in the major metrics (KP, NET, Torvik) for the past couple months, but their NCAAT seed might match their metrics ranking.

 

[RuffRuff]

SJU and Xavier would play in the semis.

Sorry that’s right!

 

[jibsey]

Hurley doesn’t sit up nights and worry about playing Duke or anybody else in a second round game. Play and beat who is in front of you. And BTW, BE performance will have zero to do with how that will go.

 

[Tmac4468]

1 more win in the BE Tournament and we're at least a 7-seed. Period.

The Committee would get crucified if they put UConn going for a 3-peat to play a 1-seed in the 2nd round on the road.

only by Boneyarders...

 

[Karmacop]

How I see it based on the outcome of the BET:

0-1 = 8/9 seed
1-1 = 8 seed
2-1 = still likely 8 seed, possible shot at a 7 seed depending on how other teams do around us
3-0 = likely 7 seed

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Speaking of 8/9 games, this year's Gonzaga team has to be the most bizarre as far as computer metrics vs projected seeding I've ever seen. They've pretty much been 8th or 9th in the major metrics (KP, NET, Torvik) for the past couple months, but their NCAAT seed might match their metrics ranking.

Wrote about it in another thread, but for KenPom, its because once they hit WCC play, they pulverize a bunch of KP 250+ defenses with weak or bad offenses into oblivion by 30-40pts/game. This mega-inflates their NetRtg and also buffers/offsets their few losses/close games that they've had with non-soup-can WCC teams (StM, SF).

Will be interesting to see how the mighty Ken tweaks his models because its clear it's a glitch in his adjustment equations.

The tourney seeding folks clearly recognize it's a glitch.

 

[ctbro1999]

Wrote about it in another thread, but for KenPom, its because once they hit WCC play, they pulverize a bunch of KP 250+ defenses with weak or bad offenses into oblivion by 30-40pts/game. This mega-inflates their NetRtg and also buffers/offsets their few losses/close games that they've had with non-soup-can WCC teams (StM, SF).

Will be interesting to see how the mighty Ken tweaks his models because its clear it's a glitch in his adjustment equations.

The tourney seeding folks clearly recognize it's a glitch.

I looked at all their L's, and none of them were blowouts (all single-digit losses). That combined with destruction of non-St. Mary's WCC competition must definitely be metrics friendly.

I see in the old RPI, they are rated #31, which is much closer to where they are projected as a seed. And UConn is #56.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

 

[CTBasketball]

FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

View attachment 107637

Would it kill a man to label his axis?

 

[ctbro1999]

Would it kill a man to label his axis?

As a nerd, it's driving me borderline insane. lmao

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Let's forget the "where would we be now if the season ended today" #8.

All we know is that Drake and Lipscomb won which means 2 less bid-stealers.

Otherwise we need to see how other conference tourneys shake out and how we do. There are a chunk of 22-9 teams that have decent Q1 and Q2 wins similar to us and it's keep everyone where they are relative to 7 and 8 seeds.

I mean half the SEC is supposed to be in the dance, but they cannot all win the SEC tourney...some will drop out in the first round, etc.

If we keep steady, beat Villanova Thursday night, we are 23-9 heading into a likely bout with Creighton. And we need to beat Nova because if somehow DePaul beats them (dunno Dixon get the flu, etc), winning against DePaul won't move the needle so we need to beat decent teams like Nova, Creighton, and St. John's....and if we do at 25-9 and Big East champs, we might even be a 6.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

That Seton Hall loss is such an anchor. That doesn’t happen and we’re talking 5 vs 6 not “can we get a 7?”

 

[6Nattys4Us]

FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

View attachment 107637

Years are in color showing '24-'25 is way above the others. Bottom X axis is Ranking Kenpom #1 thru #20 any year, and vertical axis is +Net Rating points. This year #1 is like +40 while in 22'-23' #1 Kenpom got +30.

 

[ctbro1999]

Let's forget the "where would we be now if the season ended today" #8.

All we know is that Drake and Lipscomb won which means 2 less bid-stealers.

Otherwise we need to see how other conference tourneys shake out and how we do. There are a chunk of 22-9 teams that have decent Q1 and Q2 wins similar to us and it's keep everyone where they are relative to 7 and 8 seeds.

I mean half the SEC is supposed to be in the dance, but they cannot all win the SEC tourney...some will drop out in the first round, etc.

If we keep steady, beat Villanova Thursday night, we are 23-9 heading into a likely bout with Creighton. And we need to beat Nova because if somehow DePaul beats them (dunno Dixon get the flu, etc), winning against DePaul won't move the needle so we need to beat decent teams like Nova, Creighton, and St. John's....and if we do at 25-9 and Big East champs, we might even be a 6.

Villanova is still possibly a fringe Q1 win (current NET #53), so if we face and beat them on Thursday, followed by a W over Creighton, that'd be 2 more potential Q1 W's before possibly facing the Johnnies in the finals.