No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[navery12]

I know I should be able to look this up, so I apologize in advance, but how many 1 seeds have lost to an 8/9 in the second round. I believe we lost to Ohio St. w Smitty and Kansas w/Daniel Hamilton.

1 seeds are 154-28 against 8/9 seeds

 

[Brochacho]

I know I should be able to look this up, so I apologize in advance, but how many 1 seeds have lost to an 8/9 in the second round. I believe we lost to Ohio St. w Smitty and Kansas w/Daniel Hamilton.

Looking at the brackets since the last time we were in the 8/9 game, the following 1 seeds did not make it to the Sweet Sixteen in that timespan:

2023: Purdue, Kansas
2022: Baylor
2021: Illinois
2018: Virginia, Xavier
2017 Villanova

 

[Seamus84]

We are an 8 seed in Lunardi/Decourcey/Palm brackets. The 7s in those brackets (bolded teams that are in more than one projection) are as follows:

Lunardi: Memphis, BYU, Ole Miss, Illinos
Decourcey: UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss, Kansas,
Palm: BYU, Kansas, UCLA, Louisville

Still a lot of bball to be played before next Sunday. But in the scenario above, give me the 10-seed in UCLA’s bracket. B10 is soft so I’ll take my chances against the leprechaun and then the 2-seed in the next round rather than the 1-seeds.

 

[Alum86]

East. We are going to Newark as an 8, staring at Duke in round 2.
Y’all know it. The committee will bone us out of a 7 seed Looking for good theater.

 

[RuffRuff]

Depending on where you look for bracket projections, Marquette being 2-3 seed lines ahead of us is breaking my brain

Our OOC resume kinda sucks. Texas not in tourney, Baylor likely 10-11 seed, Zags couldn’t win a mid major conference.

Marquette has wins at 4 seed Maryland, vs 4 seed Purdue and vs 3 seed Wisconsin. Voila!

 

[connVA]

Everyone has drunk the cool-aid after watching them do what all the metrics expected them to do: beat an underperforming Marquette team at home by single digits. This was not the Top 5 game at the XL like last year that resulted in a 30 point beatdown.

Historically, bad losses are like the ball-and-chain to the selection committee, more than good wins. Colorado, Seton Hall and to some extent Dayton are major clunkers. Probably have to run the table and make the BET Final and, at minimum, win or make it a very close loss (only if its the Johnnies) and watch some of others in a hunt for the 7 seed lose this weekend and early in their conf tourneys. Otherwise, 8-9 game it is.

Agreed. After yesterday’s beat down of Hall we’re at net 32, still squarely in 8/9 territory, and the teams immediately above us like Kentucky, BYU, and UCLA, while not perfect, don’t have dings on par with the Hall and Colorado losses. I feel like it’s going to take the BET title or a close loss to St John’s to overcome them. Convincing wins in the quarters and/or semis as well would be a plus.

 

[huskyjawz]

East. We are going to Newark as an 8, staring at Duke in round 2.
Y’all know it. The committee will bone us out of a 7 seed Looking for good theater.

Ugh, there would be more Duke than UConn fans there.

 

[RuffRuff]

East. We are going to Newark as an 8, staring at Duke in round 2.
Y’all know it. The committee will bone us out of a 7 seed Looking for good theater.

Part of me wants to avoid it but then there is a part is me that would like to see what Hurley could whip up with the chip back on the shoulder.

 

[connVA]

East. We are going to Newark as an 8, staring at Duke in round 2.
Y’all know it. The committee will bone us out of a 7 seed Looking for good theater.

Yeah but keep in mind Round 2 for Duke would be happening in Raleigh. Might as well just have the game at Cameron.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Our OOC resume kinda sucks. Texas not in tourney, Baylor likely 10-11 seed, Zags couldn’t win a mid major conference.

Marquette has wins at 4 seed Maryland, vs 4 seed Purdue and vs 3 seed Wisconsin. Voila!

Ok. And we beat them twice, and finished a full game ahead of them in the Big East. That neutralizes their OOC wins. So now what?

Voila!

 

[Kemba15]

Our OOC resume kinda sucks. Texas not in tourney, Baylor likely 10-11 seed, Zags couldn’t win a mid major conference.

Marquette has wins at 4 seed Maryland, vs 4 seed Purdue and vs 3 seed Wisconsin. Voila!

Our OOC resume is actually pretty solid relative to most teams. Gonzaga is 9 NET and Texas is 33. But you’re right that Marquette’s is really elite.

 

[Palatine]

I have an idea -- win the BET.

 

[RuffRuff]

Our OOC resume is actually pretty solid relative to most teams. Gonzaga is 9 NET and Texas is 33. But you’re right that Marquette’s is really elite.

Those two teams look much better mathematically than what their resume shows. How the committee process’ it is TBD. Texas isn’t making the tourney. Zags sig win is against a Baylor team proven to be a fraud and 18-13. Other than that they have a win against Indiana, whoopee. How the zags are stooging the computers is beyond me. Will be interesting to see how the committee treats them. The rankings say 2 seed, the bracketologists 8-9.

Ok. And we beat them twice, and finished a full game ahead of them in the Big East. That neutralizes their OOC wins. So now what?

Voila!

It’s the full body of work - they also didn’t lose to Seton Hall and Colorado. I mean it’s honestly not hard to see. Their OOC losses are at Iowa St and at Dayton. Not Colorado and Dayton. I do think we are a better team than Marquette, that I’ll agree with.

 

[Kemba15]

Those two teams look much better mathematically than what their resume shows. How the committee process’ it is TBD. Texas isn’t making the tourney. Zags sig win is against a Baylor team proven to be a fraud and 18-13. Other than that they have a win against Indiana, whoopee. How the zags are stooging the computers is beyond me. Will be interesting to see how the committee treats them. The rankings say 2 seed, the bracketologists 8-9.


It’s the full body of work - they also didn’t lose to Seton Hall and Colorado. I mean it’s honestly not hard to see. Their OOC losses are at Iowa St and at Dayton. Not Colorado and Dayton. I do think we are a better team than Marquette, that I’ll agree with.

For sure, I just think you’ll find that a lot of teams struggle to get quality OOC wins. We have few of them. St. Johns is a good example. They’re about to be top 5 in the AP poll but are slated for a 3 seed due to not beating anyone OOC

 

[BFieldHusky]

Those two teams look much better mathematically than what their resume shows. How the committee process’ it is TBD. Texas isn’t making the tourney. Zags sig win is against a Baylor team proven to be a fraud and 18-13. Other than that they have a win against Indiana, whoopee. How the zags are stooging the computers is beyond me. Will be interesting to see how the committee treats them. The rankings say 2 seed, the bracketologists 8-9.


It’s the full body of work - they also didn’t lose to Seton Hall and Colorado. I mean it’s honestly not hard to see. Their OOC losses are at Iowa St and at Dayton. Not Colorado and Dayton. I do think we are a better team than Marquette, that I’ll agree with.

Again, we beat them twice. And finished ahead of them in the conference standings. I think saying they are on equal footing is fair and reasonable. Don't you?

 

[Kemba15]

Again, we beat them twice. And finished ahead of them in the conference standings. I think saying they are on equal footing is fair and reasonable. Don't you?

I will say, if you’re the committee you can’t really focus on H2H. Because you’re not comparing UConn to Marquette, you’re comparing UConn and Marquette to everyone else

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I will say, if you’re the committee you can’t really focus on H2H. Because you’re not comparing UConn to Marquette, you’re comparing UConn and Marquette to everyone else

If the situation entails that one has to be a higher seed than the other then I think H2H is more than fair to compare the two. Right now UConn and Marquette are about 1-2 total spots away from each other which is the 7/8 threshold.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I will say, if you’re the committee you can’t really focus on H2H. Because you’re not comparing UConn to Marquette, you’re comparing UConn and Marquette to everyone else

I'm ok with that. But the same thing has to exist with UConn and Memphis.

 

[Kemba15]

If the situation entails that one has to be a higher seed than the other then I think H2H is more than fair to compare the two. Right now UConn and Marquette are about 1-2 total spots away from each other which is the 7/8 threshold.

How is it fair to the other teams around them if you’re only comparing UConn to Marquette?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

How is it fair to the other teams around them if you’re only comparing UConn to Marquette?

That’s not what I said. I said if it’s between UConn and Marquette on the S-Curve - say number 28vs29 overall, it means one must get a higher seed than the other. That’s where I feel a H2H tiebreaker makes sense.

 

[RuffRuff]

Again, we beat them twice. And finished ahead of them in the conference standings. I think saying they are on equal footing is fair and reasonable. Don't you?

I think we are the better team but they have a better resume, albeit front loaded in season. How committee evaluates is TBD.

 

[7774]

And UConn was massively underseeded there.

You have to make an evaluation at some point. Is UConn better than Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss.

Like, to me, there is no reason that marquette shojms be a higher seed in ncaa than UConn.

Gonzaga isn't a 2 seed.

Too much reliance on metcs makes the bracket off balance.

I don’t even know what too much reliance on the metrics means. The humans on the selection committee rank all the teams and then the aggregate of that plus adjustments determines the bracket. They use the metrics, eye test, bias, etc. We were 8 in the NET on selection Sunday 2023 and got a 4, so they didn’t go by the metrics, but of course you’re unhappy about that.

If we had Marquette’s resume and they had ours, and we weren’t the higher seed you’d be on here crying about that.

I’m happy Samson is playing the best ball of his career and Karaban got his shot back, but we beat the 2 worst teams in conference, plus GT without Sorber, and a marquette team that couldn’t make a 3 to save their life. Not sure how that makes us an obvious top 25 team.

 

[Matt1010]

Again, we beat them twice. And finished ahead of them in the conference standings. I think saying they are on equal footing is fair and reasonable. Don't you?

I think it's very fair and reasonable, but MU has an average of 28/24 resume/quality metrics and we have 37/29, so unfortunately I don't think the committee would see us equal at this point.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don’t even know what too much reliance on the metrics means. The humans on the selection committee rank all the teams and then the aggregate of that plus adjustments determines the bracket. They use the metrics, eye test, bias, etc. We were 8 in the NET on selection Sunday 2023 and got a 4, so they didn’t go by the metrics, but of course you’re unhappy about that.

If we had Marquette’s resume and they had ours, and we weren’t the higher seed you’d be on here crying about that.

I’m happy Samson is playing the best ball of his career and Karaban got his shot back, but we beat the 2 worst teams in conference, plus GT without Sorber, and a marquette team that couldn’t make a 3 to save their life. Not sure how that makes us an obvious top 25 team.

Finally a fellow realist. Let’s not all intoxicate over a win against Seton Hall. These are usually the same fans that want to jump off a cliff when they lose a game

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I don’t follow this stuff closely at all anymore but the reality seems to be that there’s nothing in our resume that would give us an expectation of being pleasantly surprised on selection Sunday. I want to win a game next Saturday night because it seems like the only shot we’ve got of getting off the 8/9 line. My thinking on it is not much more complicated than that.