No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach? | Page 8 | The Boneyard

No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

SJU and Xavier would play in the semis.

RuffRuff said:
As has been mentioned, still one game at a time. Let’s see what this team is made of this week. Would love to see a hungry Xavier team knock off StJ in the quarters!
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Speaking of 8/9 games, this year's Gonzaga team has to be the most bizarre as far as computer metrics vs projected seeding I've ever seen. They've pretty much been 8th or 9th in the major metrics (KP, NET, Torvik) for the past couple months, but their NCAAT seed might match their metrics ranking.
 
Hurley doesn’t sit up nights and worry about playing Duke or anybody else in a second round game. Play and beat who is in front of you. And BTW, BE performance will have zero to do with how that will go.
 
IndyLives said:
1 more win in the BE Tournament and we're at least a 7-seed. Period.

The Committee would get crucified if they put UConn going for a 3-peat to play a 1-seed in the 2nd round on the road.
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only by Boneyarders...
 
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ctbro1999 said:
Speaking of 8/9 games, this year's Gonzaga team has to be the most bizarre as far as computer metrics vs projected seeding I've ever seen. They've pretty much been 8th or 9th in the major metrics (KP, NET, Torvik) for the past couple months, but their NCAAT seed might match their metrics ranking.
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Wrote about it in another thread, but for KenPom, its because once they hit WCC play, they pulverize a bunch of KP 250+ defenses with weak or bad offenses into oblivion by 30-40pts/game. This mega-inflates their NetRtg and also buffers/offsets their few losses/close games that they've had with non-soup-can WCC teams (StM, SF).

Will be interesting to see how the mighty Ken tweaks his models because its clear it's a glitch in his adjustment equations.

The tourney seeding folks clearly recognize it's a glitch.
 
JustbrewitMan said:
Wrote about it in another thread, but for KenPom, its because once they hit WCC play, they pulverize a bunch of KP 250+ defenses with weak or bad offenses into oblivion by 30-40pts/game. This mega-inflates their NetRtg and also buffers/offsets their few losses/close games that they've had with non-soup-can WCC teams (StM, SF).

Will be interesting to see how the mighty Ken tweaks his models because its clear it's a glitch in his adjustment equations.

The tourney seeding folks clearly recognize it's a glitch.
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I looked at all their L's, and none of them were blowouts (all single-digit losses). That combined with destruction of non-St. Mary's WCC competition must definitely be metrics friendly.

I see in the old RPI, they are rated #31, which is much closer to where they are projected as a seed. And UConn is #56. :eek:
 
FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

KenPom NetRtg-Top20s.jpg
 
JustbrewitMan said:
FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

View attachment 107637
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Would it kill a man to label his axis?
 
Let's forget the "where would we be now if the season ended today" #8.

All we know is that Drake and Lipscomb won which means 2 less bid-stealers.

Otherwise we need to see how other conference tourneys shake out and how we do. There are a chunk of 22-9 teams that have decent Q1 and Q2 wins similar to us and it's keep everyone where they are relative to 7 and 8 seeds.

I mean half the SEC is supposed to be in the dance, but they cannot all win the SEC tourney...some will drop out in the first round, etc.

If we keep steady, beat Villanova Thursday night, we are 23-9 heading into a likely bout with Creighton. And we need to beat Nova because if somehow DePaul beats them (dunno Dixon get the flu, etc), winning against DePaul won't move the needle so we need to beat decent teams like Nova, Creighton, and St. John's....and if we do at 25-9 and Big East champs, we might even be a 6.
 
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That Seton Hall loss is such an anchor. That doesn’t happen and we’re talking 5 vs 6 not “can we get a 7?”
 
JustbrewitMan said:
FWIW its interesting to see the spread of KP NetRtgs for each year for the Top 20 KP teams. This year, there is a clear inflation of NetRtgs across the entire range of teams compared to previous few years. There's much less drop-off in the KP 10-20 range.

View attachment 107637
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Years are in color showing '24-'25 is way above the others. Bottom X axis is Ranking Kenpom #1 thru #20 any year, and vertical axis is +Net Rating points. This year #1 is like +40 while in 22'-23' #1 Kenpom got +30.
 
6Nattys4Us said:
Let's forget the "where would we be now if the season ended today" #8.

All we know is that Drake and Lipscomb won which means 2 less bid-stealers.

Otherwise we need to see how other conference tourneys shake out and how we do. There are a chunk of 22-9 teams that have decent Q1 and Q2 wins similar to us and it's keep everyone where they are relative to 7 and 8 seeds.

I mean half the SEC is supposed to be in the dance, but they cannot all win the SEC tourney...some will drop out in the first round, etc.

If we keep steady, beat Villanova Thursday night, we are 23-9 heading into a likely bout with Creighton. And we need to beat Nova because if somehow DePaul beats them (dunno Dixon get the flu, etc), winning against DePaul won't move the needle so we need to beat decent teams like Nova, Creighton, and St. John's....and if we do at 25-9 and Big East champs, we might even be a 6.
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Villanova is still possibly a fringe Q1 win (current NET #53), so if we face and beat them on Thursday, followed by a W over Creighton, that'd be 2 more potential Q1 W's before possibly facing the Johnnies in the finals.
 
6Nattys4Us said:
Years are in color showing '24-'25 is way above the others. Bottom X axis is Ranking Kenpom #1 thru #20 any year, and vertical axis is +Net Rating points. This year #1 is like +40 while in 22'-23' #1 Kenpom got +30.
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#1 is Duke, who has just been pulverizing a historically-weak ACC whose KP ratings were all likely inflated to start the season (last year's data). So the "adjustments" for horrible teams are likely under-adjustments, too.
 
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JohnFSilver said:
Meh.

The 4 seed was silly. They were clearly a top 10 team and everyone thought so. I am making a case why I think they are on the 7 line right now, not the 8.

I can see them get to a 6, which is what you want. Tough games, but you stay away from a 1 or 2 in first weekend.

6 is top 24. I don’t think eye tests says that is unreasonable. Especially if they make big east final by beating Creighton for second time.

I think the only thing guaranteed is the floor is a 9 heading into big east tourney and the ceiling probably a 6. They are a 7 now, IMO.
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Many thought we were one of the best four teams in the country, but we clearly were? We were coming off a loss in our conference tourney semis and hadn't seriously challenged for our conference regular season title. And, if you look at the teams we were competing against for seeds 10-16 or so, I doubt many of them had as many bad losses as we had at the start of the Big East season. There is a big difference between being one of the best, defined as who would be favored to win on a neutral court, versus one of the most accomplished which judges who you beat, who you lost to and where over the course of the entire season.
 
RuffRuff said:
Bracket Matrix update - we haven’t moved a blink after the Hall. That said we have a new group of teams under us within reach, one being Marquette. We should be pulling for Xavier, and against teams like Miss st, Kansas and BYU.

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In bracket matrix. How many teams are seeded higher than their metrics?

At some point, you have to have the eye test. To me, it is silly to have Marquette above UConn. UConn might be slightly behind on the metrics line, it they beat Marquette twice. That should switch them in seeding.
 
JohnFSilver said:
In bracket matrix. How many teams are seeded higher than their metrics?

At some point, you have to have the eye test. To me, it is silly to have Marquette above UConn. UConn might be slightly behind on the metrics line, it they beat Marquette twice. That should switch them in seeding.
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If you play that rule, should Kentucky be seeded higher than Duke? Resume is a season long thing, not a head to head thing.
 
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Did an additional bracket projection last night... landed us at number 31 on the s-curve (third 8). Will do one more Sunday afternoon right before the actual reveal. The five teams I have immediately in front of us are:

26. Ole Miss (7)
27. Oregon (7)
28. Memphis (7)
29. Kansas (8)
30. Gonzaga (8)

Those teams all have at least one more Q1 win than us. And outside of Memphis (which oddly has 3 Q3 losses), no losses outside the top two quadrants. Memphis is a damn weird team to evaluate and I'll be intrigued to see what the committee does with them. Very strong resume metrics but quite pedestrian predictives.

All that is to say I'm not sure there's much of a path, short of perhaps going 3-0 this week, to even getting off the 8 line. It's tough to say our resume as of now would warrant placement over any of those four (and then Memphis). Seton Hall, Colorado, and to a lesser extent Dayton are albatrosses around our necks.

For the record, this was the quadrant I had us in:

Wichita, KS
1. Houston (3)
16. Omaha (63)
8. Connecticut (31)
9. Georgia (33)

Here were my top sixteen teams and regionals:

South - Atlanta
1. Auburn (1) - Lexington, KY
4. Purdue (15) - Seattle, WA
3. Kentucky (11) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Texas Tech (8) - Wichita, KS

East - Newark
1. Duke (2) - Raleigh, NC
4. Wisconsin (14) - Denver, CO
3. St. John's (9) - Providence, RI
2. Alabama (7) - Cleveland, OH

Midwest - Indianapolis
1. Houston (3) - Wichita, KS
4. Texas A&M (13) - Denver, CO
3. Maryland (12) - Providence, RI
2. Tennessee (5) - Lexington, KY

West - San Francisco
1. Florida (4) - Raleigh, NC
4. Clemson (16) - Seattle, WA
3. Iowa State (10) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Michigan State (6) - Cleveland, OH

Won't go through the clutter of listing my whole s-curve, but here's UConn's neighborhood:

23. BYU (6), 24. Louisville (6), 25. Marquette (7), 26. Ole Miss (7), 27. Oregon (7), 28. Memphis (7), 29. Kansas (8), 30. Gonzaga (8), 31. UConn (8), 32. Mississippi State (8), 33. Georgia (9), 34. UC-San Diego (9 - gave them some love that probably won't be there in real life), 35. Oklahoma (9), 36. Creighton (9).
 
UConNick said:
Did an additional bracket projection last night... landed us at number 31 on the s-curve (third 8). Will do one more Sunday afternoon right before the actual reveal. The five teams I have immediately in front of us are:

26. Ole Miss (7)
27. Oregon (7)
28. Memphis (7)
29. Kansas (8)
30. Gonzaga (8)

Those teams all have at least one more Q1 win than us. And outside of Memphis (which oddly has 3 Q3 losses), no losses outside the top two quadrants. Memphis is a damn weird team to evaluate and I'll be intrigued to see what the committee does with them. Very strong resume metrics but quite pedestrian predictives.

All that is to say I'm not sure there's much of a path, short of perhaps going 3-0 this week, to even getting off the 8 line. It's tough to say our resume as of now would warrant placement over any of those four (and then Memphis). Seton Hall, Colorado, and to a lesser extent Dayton are albatrosses around our necks.

For the record, this was the quadrant I had us in:

Wichita, KS
1. Houston (3)
16. Omaha (63)
8. Connecticut (31)
9. Georgia (33)

Here were my top sixteen teams and regionals:

South - Atlanta
1. Auburn (1) - Lexington, KY
4. Purdue (15) - Seattle, WA
3. Kentucky (11) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Texas Tech (8) - Wichita, KS

East - Newark
1. Duke (2) - Raleigh, NC
4. Wisconsin (14) - Denver, CO
3. St. John's (9) - Providence, RI
2. Alabama (7) - Cleveland, OH

Midwest - Indianapolis
1. Houston (3) - Wichita, KS
4. Texas A&M (13) - Denver, CO
3. Maryland (12) - Providence, RI
2. Tennessee (5) - Lexington, KY

West - San Francisco
1. Florida (4) - Raleigh, NC
4. Clemson (16) - Seattle, WA
3. Iowa State (10) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Michigan State (6) - Cleveland, OH

Won't go through the clutter of listing my whole s-curve, but here's UConn's neighborhood:

23. BYU (6), 24. Louisville (6), 25. Marquette (7), 26. Ole Miss (7), 27. Oregon (7), 28. Memphis (7), 29. Kansas (8), 30. Gonzaga (8), 31. UConn (8), 32. Mississippi State (8), 33. Georgia (9), 34. UC-San Diego (9 - gave them some love that probably won't be there in real life), 35. Oklahoma (9), 36. Creighton (9).
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Really good analysis and for what it’s worth, have seen a few brackets kicked out today that had exactly what you are showing with us playing Georgia in front of Houston.

With you that it will likely take 3 wins to get to the 7, minimum of 2 along with good fortune ahead. Unlikely there is any chance we get to 6.

Memphis is a weird team. They are 48 in KP meanwhile somehow Gonzaga is 9. Memphis has wins @ Clemson and Mich St neutral, Ole Miss and Mizzou, they beat us. Their OOC is WAY better than Zags. And while neither league is great at least Memphis crushed theirs and won it. Someone help me make sense of this. Memphis has what looks like 5 OOC wins better than Zags best yet are almost 40 spots lower. Torvik discrepancy even worse. I really need an explanation of this one, how one so over valued and the other so under.
 
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Gonzaga playing St. Mary’s tonight…gotta root for Mahaney’s old squad.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Gonzaga winning would help our metrics though.
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Yeah who cares about Mahaneys old squad - StM will do what they always do in the tourney, lose to an athletic team in first or second round.
 
So, looks like there is NO chance for UC to end up in Providence subregional, Mar 20, even if they were to win BET.......
St John's likely be put there-- Rick's old stomping grounds...
 
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