No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[JustbrewitMan]

Would it kill a man to label his axis?

As a nerd, it's driving me borderline insane. lmao

Whipped it up quick. The title gives you the info. NetRtg y-axis, the KP rank on the X axis. Sheesh!

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Years are in color showing '24-'25 is way above the others. Bottom X axis is Ranking Kenpom #1 thru #20 any year, and vertical axis is +Net Rating points. This year #1 is like +40 while in 22'-23' #1 Kenpom got +30.

#1 is Duke, who has just been pulverizing a historically-weak ACC whose KP ratings were all likely inflated to start the season (last year's data). So the "adjustments" for horrible teams are likely under-adjustments, too.

 

[Ha Who]

Not a good sign when your own network is only projecting one team from your conference in the top 25 this week.

College basketball rankings: Duke takes over No. 1; St. John's enters top 5 | FOX SportsCheck out this story from Fox Sports

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Not a good sign when your own network is only projecting one team from your conference in the top 25 this week.

College basketball rankings: Duke takes over No. 1; St. John's enters top 5 | FOX SportsCheck out this story from Fox Sports

That's Fanta's take - not as widely held as the AP poll which takes way too long on a Monday to come out.

 

[Ha Who]

That's Fanta's take - not as widely held as the AP poll which takes way too long on a Monday to come out.

Thus my statement “your own network”

 

[businesslawyer]

Meh.

The 4 seed was silly. They were clearly a top 10 team and everyone thought so. I am making a case why I think they are on the 7 line right now, not the 8.

I can see them get to a 6, which is what you want. Tough games, but you stay away from a 1 or 2 in first weekend.

6 is top 24. I don’t think eye tests says that is unreasonable. Especially if they make big east final by beating Creighton for second time.

I think the only thing guaranteed is the floor is a 9 heading into big east tourney and the ceiling probably a 6. They are a 7 now, IMO.

Many thought we were one of the best four teams in the country, but we clearly were? We were coming off a loss in our conference tourney semis and hadn't seriously challenged for our conference regular season title. And, if you look at the teams we were competing against for seeds 10-16 or so, I doubt many of them had as many bad losses as we had at the start of the Big East season. There is a big difference between being one of the best, defined as who would be favored to win on a neutral court, versus one of the most accomplished which judges who you beat, who you lost to and where over the course of the entire season.

 

[RuffRuff]

Bracket Matrix update - we haven’t moved a blink after the Hall. That said we have a new group of teams under us within reach, one being Marquette. We should be pulling for Xavier, and against teams like Miss st, Kansas and BYU.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[JohnFSilver]

Bracket Matrix update - we haven’t moved a blink after the Hall. That said we have a new group of teams under us within reach, one being Marquette. We should be pulling for Xavier, and against teams like Miss st, Kansas and BYU.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

In bracket matrix. How many teams are seeded higher than their metrics?

At some point, you have to have the eye test. To me, it is silly to have Marquette above UConn. UConn might be slightly behind on the metrics line, it they beat Marquette twice. That should switch them in seeding.

 

[RuffRuff]

In bracket matrix. How many teams are seeded higher than their metrics?

At some point, you have to have the eye test. To me, it is silly to have Marquette above UConn. UConn might be slightly behind on the metrics line, it they beat Marquette twice. That should switch them in seeding.

If you play that rule, should Kentucky be seeded higher than Duke? Resume is a season long thing, not a head to head thing.

 

[UConNick]

Did an additional bracket projection last night... landed us at number 31 on the s-curve (third 8). Will do one more Sunday afternoon right before the actual reveal. The five teams I have immediately in front of us are:

26. Ole Miss (7)
27. Oregon (7)
28. Memphis (7)
29. Kansas (8)
30. Gonzaga (8)

Those teams all have at least one more Q1 win than us. And outside of Memphis (which oddly has 3 Q3 losses), no losses outside the top two quadrants. Memphis is a damn weird team to evaluate and I'll be intrigued to see what the committee does with them. Very strong resume metrics but quite pedestrian predictives.

All that is to say I'm not sure there's much of a path, short of perhaps going 3-0 this week, to even getting off the 8 line. It's tough to say our resume as of now would warrant placement over any of those four (and then Memphis). Seton Hall, Colorado, and to a lesser extent Dayton are albatrosses around our necks.

For the record, this was the quadrant I had us in:

Wichita, KS
1. Houston (3)
16. Omaha (63)
8. Connecticut (31)
9. Georgia (33)

Here were my top sixteen teams and regionals:

South - Atlanta
1. Auburn (1) - Lexington, KY
4. Purdue (15) - Seattle, WA
3. Kentucky (11) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Texas Tech (8) - Wichita, KS

East - Newark
1. Duke (2) - Raleigh, NC
4. Wisconsin (14) - Denver, CO
3. St. John's (9) - Providence, RI
2. Alabama (7) - Cleveland, OH

Midwest - Indianapolis
1. Houston (3) - Wichita, KS
4. Texas A&M (13) - Denver, CO
3. Maryland (12) - Providence, RI
2. Tennessee (5) - Lexington, KY

West - San Francisco
1. Florida (4) - Raleigh, NC
4. Clemson (16) - Seattle, WA
3. Iowa State (10) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Michigan State (6) - Cleveland, OH

Won't go through the clutter of listing my whole s-curve, but here's UConn's neighborhood:

23. BYU (6), 24. Louisville (6), 25. Marquette (7), 26. Ole Miss (7), 27. Oregon (7), 28. Memphis (7), 29. Kansas (8), 30. Gonzaga (8), 31. UConn (8), 32. Mississippi State (8), 33. Georgia (9), 34. UC-San Diego (9 - gave them some love that probably won't be there in real life), 35. Oklahoma (9), 36. Creighton (9).

 

[RuffRuff]

Did an additional bracket projection last night... landed us at number 31 on the s-curve (third 8). Will do one more Sunday afternoon right before the actual reveal. The five teams I have immediately in front of us are:

26. Ole Miss (7)
27. Oregon (7)
28. Memphis (7)
29. Kansas (8)
30. Gonzaga (8)

Those teams all have at least one more Q1 win than us. And outside of Memphis (which oddly has 3 Q3 losses), no losses outside the top two quadrants. Memphis is a damn weird team to evaluate and I'll be intrigued to see what the committee does with them. Very strong resume metrics but quite pedestrian predictives.

All that is to say I'm not sure there's much of a path, short of perhaps going 3-0 this week, to even getting off the 8 line. It's tough to say our resume as of now would warrant placement over any of those four (and then Memphis). Seton Hall, Colorado, and to a lesser extent Dayton are albatrosses around our necks.

For the record, this was the quadrant I had us in:

Wichita, KS
1. Houston (3)
16. Omaha (63)
8. Connecticut (31)
9. Georgia (33)

Here were my top sixteen teams and regionals:

South - Atlanta
1. Auburn (1) - Lexington, KY
4. Purdue (15) - Seattle, WA
3. Kentucky (11) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Texas Tech (8) - Wichita, KS

East - Newark
1. Duke (2) - Raleigh, NC
4. Wisconsin (14) - Denver, CO
3. St. John's (9) - Providence, RI
2. Alabama (7) - Cleveland, OH

Midwest - Indianapolis
1. Houston (3) - Wichita, KS
4. Texas A&M (13) - Denver, CO
3. Maryland (12) - Providence, RI
2. Tennessee (5) - Lexington, KY

West - San Francisco
1. Florida (4) - Raleigh, NC
4. Clemson (16) - Seattle, WA
3. Iowa State (10) - Milwaukee, WI
2. Michigan State (6) - Cleveland, OH

Won't go through the clutter of listing my whole s-curve, but here's UConn's neighborhood:

23. BYU (6), 24. Louisville (6), 25. Marquette (7), 26. Ole Miss (7), 27. Oregon (7), 28. Memphis (7), 29. Kansas (8), 30. Gonzaga (8), 31. UConn (8), 32. Mississippi State (8), 33. Georgia (9), 34. UC-San Diego (9 - gave them some love that probably won't be there in real life), 35. Oklahoma (9), 36. Creighton (9).

Really good analysis and for what it’s worth, have seen a few brackets kicked out today that had exactly what you are showing with us playing Georgia in front of Houston.

With you that it will likely take 3 wins to get to the 7, minimum of 2 along with good fortune ahead. Unlikely there is any chance we get to 6.

Memphis is a weird team. They are 48 in KP meanwhile somehow Gonzaga is 9. Memphis has wins @ Clemson and Mich St neutral, Ole Miss and Mizzou, they beat us. Their OOC is WAY better than Zags. And while neither league is great at least Memphis crushed theirs and won it. Someone help me make sense of this. Memphis has what looks like 5 OOC wins better than Zags best yet are almost 40 spots lower. Torvik discrepancy even worse. I really need an explanation of this one, how one so over valued and the other so under.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Gonzaga playing St. Mary’s tonight…gotta root for Mahaney’s old squad.

 

[ctbro1999]

Gonzaga playing St. Mary’s tonight…gotta root for Mahaney’s old squad.

Gonzaga winning would help our metrics though.

 

[RuffRuff]

Gonzaga winning would help our metrics though.

Yeah who cares about Mahaneys old squad - StM will do what they always do in the tourney, lose to an athletic team in first or second round.

 

[Superhuskies]

So, looks like there is NO chance for UC to end up in Providence subregional, Mar 20, even if they were to win BET.......
St John's likely be put there-- Rick's old stomping grounds...

 

[Matt1010]

Really good analysis and for what it’s worth, have seen a few brackets kicked out today that had exactly what you are showing with us playing Georgia in front of Houston.

With you that it will likely take 3 wins to get to the 7, minimum of 2 along with good fortune ahead. Unlikely there is any chance we get to 6.

Memphis is a weird team. They are 48 in KP meanwhile somehow Gonzaga is 9. Memphis has wins @ Clemson and Mich St neutral, Ole Miss and Mizzou, they beat us. Their OOC is WAY better than Zags. And while neither league is great at least Memphis crushed theirs and won it. Someone help me make sense of this. Memphis has what looks like 5 OOC wins better than Zags best yet are almost 40 spots lower. Torvik discrepancy even worse. I really need an explanation of this one, how one so over valued and the other so under.

Gonzaga plays in a better conference and is considered one of the "unluckiest" teams in college basketball this year. They went 0-3 in OT games and lost additional games by 6, 3, 4, 4, and 7. Only 4 of their 24 wins were by single digits and they won a bunch by 30+.

Memphis didn't play a single Kenpom "A" game in conference and won a bunch of close games against mediocre/bad teams.

 

[auror]

So, looks like there is NO chance for UC to end up in Providence subregional, Mar 20, even if they were to win BET.......
St John's likely be put there-- Rick's old stomping grounds...

Would have to be purely by chance for UConn, the committee might even actively try to avoid it, and UConn would probably have to get up to the 6 or 7 line to have a shot at it.

 

[RuffRuff]

Would have to be purely by chance for UConn, the committee might even actively try to avoid it, and UConn would probably have to get up to the 6 or 7 line to have a shot at it.

No way they’re setting up a scenario where we have a home game against a 1 seed in round 2.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Do we really think the committee is going to be focused on protecting the 1 and 2 seeds as if we are some bubbling juggernaut ready to ruin brackets and seed us because of that?

I don't think anybody anywhere other than you is invoking the term "bubbling juggernaut" for UConn, but you may have your sources and I might be wrong.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don't think anybody anywhere other than you is invoking the term "bubbling juggernaut" for UConn, but you may have your sources and I might be wrong.

We here like to think we are a center of focus for how the committee shapes the brackets. We’re not. If we’re the top 8 seed they’ll likely put us in the bracket with the lowest 1.

 

[auror]

No way they’re setting up a scenario where we have a home game against a 1 seed in round 2.

Plus none of the 1s are going to choose Providence. It's going to go to St. John's and then one other team that it just randomly happens to be closest towards the end of the protected seedline.

 

[MJKI]

Colorado and Zags winning moves us up to 30 in the NET. Colorado guaranteed to stay Q2 so only “one” bad loss on the resume

 

[RuffRuff]

Colorado and Zags winning moves us up to 30 in the NET. Colorado guaranteed to stay Q2 so only “one” bad loss on the resume

Issue is that the Zags also likely jumped us with the win last night, pushing us back a spot.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Issue is that the Zags also likely jumped us with the win last night, pushing us back a spot.

Most bracket people already had them slightly ahead of us.

 

[RuffRuff]

Most bracket people already had them slightly ahead of us.

Bracket matrix had them two spots behind us.